The weekend is here as is the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-23-2022 after a fantastic Friday that arguably could have been better. I got a little greedy with the Mets -1 run line that left me with a push in Phoenix after the bullpens took over. Never fear, as profits came in via a low-scoring affair in Cincinnati with my beloved Redlegs falling to the Cardinals in a 4-2 small ball finish. The day could have been better…and it certainly could have been worse. With profits in hand, let’s roll into a two position Saturday and try to keep things rolling!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA TWINS (-130)
V. Velasquez (R) vs. D. Bundy (R)
The cry “It’s Dylan Bundy Day” has been a call to arms against the big right-hander throughout his career. Then 2020 happened and he scorched many who bet against his starts for the Angels. Last season, those who faded Bundy were rewarded again and now the 29-year-old poses a conundrum for someone like me getting involved in one of his early season starts. His 1.78 FIP/3.18 xFIP across the first two starts of 2022 brings a number of underlying concerns, most notably a .200 BABIP and the persistence of last year’s ballooning hard hit rate that bumped up against the danger zone.
I am also skeptical that Dylan can maintain such a high ground ball rate that is 5-6% above the tight range he delivered over the past three years. Respect is due to the two wins he helped deliver against Seattle and Boston, albeit with solid run support from an otherwise below-expectation Twins offense. Maybe there is something to the resurgence of Bundy’s slider after a rough 2021. His swing-and-miss stuff appears to have made a comeback as well. Now he catches a scuffling White Sox lineup. Their 50 wRC+ over the seven day period preceding last night’s 2-1 loss was second worst in the majors, just above my Cincinnati Reds. Couple that with Chicago’s huge disparity in handedness splits of 157 wRC+ versus lefties and a meager 63 against righties.
Not Always Green on the Other Side
The Twins also leave a lot to be desired at the plate these days. Prior to last night’s game, they had exhibited balance with an 88 wRC+ across the board. Like the White Sox, way below expectation. April baseball in the midwest has not helped the hitters’ causes though the Twin Cities look forward to mid-70s temps and a stiff crosswind from right to left at Target Field today. Both offenses have had their share of injury concerns already this season, making lineup projections pretty difficult in the mornings.
Vince Velasquez stands to benefit from a worn down Twins lineup – if he can harness some semblance of command. The 29-year-old has yielded 3 walks in each of his two starts, maintaining a 11%+ walk rate that troubled him so much last year. I still peg him as a high-4.00 FIP starter who will push for 5 full innings unless he finds himself in a jam in the 4th or 5th this afternoon. It’s possible that his climbing hard hit rate bites him but Minnesota’s challenges at the plate should partially mitigate Vinny’s hittable four-pitch arsenal. My guess is walks will determine what the Twins can do against Velasquez, especially with this group showing more plate discipline in the week ending with Thursday’s 1-0 win over the Royals (10.7% BB, 21.0% K).
WAGER: Twins First 5 Innings -125
I am approaching Dylan Bundy conservatively against a White Sox offense that will eventually get its stuff together. Even with a low-to-mid-4.00 FIP estimate, the Twins still gain close to a 3/4-run edge to FIP in this starting pitching matchup. Chicago’s 1/4-run edge via the bullpens is enough to keep me away from a full game position with some expectation for parity between these offenses’ current state of affairs. A first 5 inning under could be warranted as an alternative at 4.5 runs – but I’ll play the Velasquez vs. Bundy angle instead.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ HOUSTON ASTROS (+100)
A. Manoah (R) vs. J. Urquidy (R)
That’s an appropriate segue into my final position of the day – another first 5 inning play. This time I am involved in the over with a pair of talented offenses and a little yin and yang amongst starting pitchers. I extolled the virtues of the Jays’ Alek Manoah in the April 11th Breakdown as a swing-and-miss monster whose sophomore season should settle in right around 4.00 FIP. Outside of a minor stumble against Oakland, that general assessment has been met with a so far, so good response. Plus he meets up with an Astros offense that has slashed a meager .186/.277/.314 in the seven-day period through April 21st. They’ve been shut down by the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Brash, and lefty Marco Gonzales. Yet there is some hope for Houston’s lineup considering they have not been terrible against right-handers (96 wRC+) despite three of the four aforementioned opposing starters fitting that bill.
On the other hand, the Blue Jays have been excellent against righties so far. Exceeding expectations by about 11% helps to counter Houston’s 15% shortfall in that category. So there’s a little adjusting taking place in my workflow with these lineups in this scenario. And Jose Urquidy leaves the door open for the Jays to potentially kick in at Minute Maid Park. I’m not taking Urquidy’s 5.37 FIP/5.10 xFIP as gospel, considering his very good outing at the Angels to start his season. But the Seattle experience was a rough one and the Blue Jays offer him no rest whatsoever. Maybe it’s Jose’s tinkering with a new cutter that has sapped his swing-and-miss quotient and overall effectiveness. Although the season is young and Urquidy is not a 5.00+ FIP pitcher.
WAGER: [0.5u] First 5 Innings Over 4 Runs -120
I just gave a very roundabout breakdown behind the vanishing phenomenon known as the “over”. Remember those days when overs were a thing? Strikeout artist Alek Manoah is a tough nut to crack and Houston’s top half of the order has to answer the call this afternoon with at least 1 run. Jose Urquidy could suppress Toronto like he did Los Angeles, though that is a major uphill battle against the George Springer-less Jays. 3 runs from this talented lineup should get us to a push – a very reasonable expectation at a -120 price with upside to the over considering that 4.5 would keep me away from this spot. BOL this weekend!
Heading for Home
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