PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-5

SEASON RESULTS:
66-61

Week 16 Recap:

Our posted article plays hit at a 3-2 mark last week, which would have been fine. However, we added some early plays and a late play on Twitter, none of which were winners. That put us at an overall 3-5 record for the week which lowered our season total to an underwhelming 66-61. As you might expect from a 3-5 weekend, there wasn’t a lot of consistency as we covered a couple easily, one barely, and missed close and big. Our early plays of Jonathan Taylor and A.J. Green fell just short, which is a little frustrating, as Taylor had a 48 yard run on his first carry. We also lost our final add as David Montgomery also stalled out in the second half. Our best win was the receiving over for Bills running back Devin Singletary, who caught two passes on the first drive and cashed in just 1:30 of game time. Ja’Marr Chase cashed pretty easily as well as the Bengals torched the secondary of the Ravens. The automatic over for Cooper Kupp was close but just squeezed by. We felt good about taking a chance on newly starting Drew Lock, and he let us down in a big way. Overall, it was the epitome of a “blah” weekend of player props and we’re ready to move on.

Week 17 Preview:

In what would normally be the final week of the NFL season we have an abundance of Sunday games on the slate to review. As is normally the case in this part of the season, looking for angles of teams and players that have a lot to play for, versus those who have their sights set on the offseason is a key in the evaluation process. We’re switching course on some players, and throwing some new guys into the fold as well. Just a total of 6 plays in this week as we’re hoping for some quality plays over quantity. We’ve got a couple of quarterbacks that we’re fading, and some role players we’re expecting to have nice games. Happy New Year, let’s start 2022 off the right way!

Our Picks:

Joe Burrow – Under 283.5 Yards Passing (-115)

We were all behind Joe Burrow a week ago against a thin Baltimore secondary, and the 2nd year quarterback did not disappoint. We’re swinging back the other direction this week in a huge matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in Cincinnati. The Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the league over the last eight weeks, and can be downright dominant when defensive tackle Chris Jones is in the lineup. The addition of Melvin Ingram to bolster the pass rush of Jones and veteran Frank Clark is a lot for even a strong offensive line to contain, and the Bengals aren’t in the strong category there just yet. With the experienced secondary that Kansas City boasts, they should be able to matchup with the Bengals talented wide receiving group, especially if they do generate pressure up front. We’re not expecting a bad day for Burrow, just not one that results in a lot of huge pass plays as we saw a week ago.

Ronald Jones – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

There are a few mismatch contests in week 17, one of which features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Jets. The Bucs enter as near two touchdown favorites, and should be able to overwhelm the Jets on both sides of the ball. If things go to plan, we can expect to see a lot of running from Tampa as they’d like to win this game and get home. That’s especially the case with wide receivers Mike Evans and Antonio Brown still fighting through injuries, and Chris Godwin lost for the season. The wide receiver position isn’t the only one that’s fighting through injuries, as starting running back Leonard Fournette is shut down until the postseason. That opens the door for former starter Ronald Jones II to prove that he’s still capable of carrying the rushing load for a team when the opportunity is there. He’s got a favorable matchup against a New York Jets team that will be missing it’s best defensive player in Quinnen Williams, and has been downright bad against the run. We’re expecting 15-20 carries for Jones, which means he really needs about a 4 yard per carry average to get over this number.

Kyler Murray – Under 257.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Doesn’t it seem like ages ago when the Arizona Cardinals boasted the top record in the NFL and were winning games convincingly? The Cardinals are now at a point where they need to simply stop the bleeding and find their way to a win again to compete in the NFC West with the Rams. That puts a lot of weight on the shoulders of quarterback Kyler Murray, who has admittedly struggled a bit in the second half of the season. There’s likely a correspondence between that and the absence of top wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who won’t be suiting up in this game against the Cowboys. Murray has struggled to find a replacement for Hopkins, and none of his other weapons have stepped up into that lead role. Sunday the Cardinals will be in Dallas, taking on a suddenly strong Cowboy defense. Dallas has been generating pressure with the trio of Randy Gregory, Demarcus Lawrence and rookie Micah Parsons. This will force Murray to make short and quick throws, taking away the deep threat and speed of Christian Kirk and banged up rookie Rondale Moore. It’ll also force Murray to scramble, something he’s very capable of doing. Add everything up and it looks like this is a game where Murray will be under his yardage total.

Tyler Lockett – Over 56.5 Yards Receiving (115)

Sometimes it can be a little scary wagering on teams and players that have very little to play for at the end of a season. Despite the Seahawks running out the clock on their 2021 campaign, we’re rolling the dice with Tyler Lockett and a very manageable yardage total of just 56.5 yards. Lockett remains Russell Wilson’s favorite target, and when the Seahawks are having success, he’s generally carrying the load in the receiving department. Lockett will be facing the feisty Detroit Lions, in a game that should feature some better weather than the team saw a week ago, in what was basically a snow game in Seattle. In games this season with Russell Wilson starting at quarterback, Lockett has averaged 64 yards receiving. In what will hopefully be a prideful performance for the receiver and his quarterback, we’re expecting at least an average performance, getting him over his yardage total.

Matthew Stafford – Over 288.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The Rams offense has looked a little clunky at times since the team lost wideout Robert Woods earlier in the season. Despite this, they’ve still managed to be one of the better units in the league as Matthew Stafford has pushed through some tough games to still be effective. He has a great matchup this weekend against the Baltimore Ravens, in what very well could be a tight ballgame. The reason it’s a great matchup is the same reason we liked Joey Burrow a week ago against this Ravens team. The secondary for Baltimore remains a depleted group, missing 4 of their top 6 players. With a trio of Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Jr. and Van Jefferson, plus a healthy Tyler Higbee at tight end to throw to, Stafford should be able to find and exploit a matchup somewhere in the passing game. If this game does remain close, as expected, that should force the Rams to throw for the entirety. There shouldn’t be any reason why Stafford doesn’t end up with a 300 yard passing day against an inferior secondary on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts – Over 45.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

After riding the legs of Jalen Hurts to multiple straight rushing covers, we took a break last week, and timed it perfectly as the Eagles quarterback rushed for just 7 yards. We’re jumping right back on Hurts in a critical game against the Washington Football Team that we expect to be a typical NFC East slugfest. Hurts will be without the services of his top running back Miles Sanders, and possibly Jordan Howard as well. In a critical spot, he’ll have to shoulder the burden of the running game, and is more than capable of doing so. Prior to last week’s two carry performance, nursing a sore ankle and not needing to run, Hurts has had at least 7 rushing attempts in every game this season. Look for the quarterback to scramble around 8-10 times, and he should be able to break at least a couple of lengthy runs.

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