Previous Week Plays – 5-1
Season Record – 42-29
Week 16 Recap:
Things are heating up down the stretch for us as a 5-1 week puts our last 3 weeks at a 12-3 mark with our officially posted plays. We’ll start out recapping our lone loss of the weekend first, as it truly could have been a perfect sweep had the Minnesota Vikings gotten things done against the Rams. An early red zone turnover hurt the team, and despite holding down Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense and forcing four turnovers, they couldn’t cover the 3.5 points at home. It looked like they may get a late backdoor cover win, however they elected to kick the field goal rather than go for it, dooming our perfect weekend. Ah well, no complaining as we pretty easily hit our other five wagers on the board. We went against some sharp money with the Indianapolis Colts, and even with the late scratches of Quenton Nelson and Darious Leonard, the Colts outmuscled the struggling Cardinals. We had some big closing line value as Tyler Huntley’s late scratch gave the Bengals even more of an edge than we believed they had when we locked them in at -3. The Bengals offense overwhelmed the secondary of the Ravens as they cruised to a 20 point victory. We doubled down on that one with the Bengals team total, which they soared past early in the third quarter. One leg of our teaser bet was close as the Packers narrowly escaped the Browns despite 4 interceptions from quarterback Baker Mayfield. The second leg was a lot smoother as the Bills didn’t need the points in a sounding win over the rival New England Patriots. And the week closed out with a bang, as fading Ian Book and a banged up Saints offensive line against a blitzing Dolphins defense proved too much for New Orleans to overcome. Momentum can be just as big in sports wagering as it can be in actually playing the games. We’ll try to keep riding it into next week.
Week 17 Picks:
After finding some nice ATS games to play a week ago, we’re mainly jumping back off of that path and looking at some alternative angles. Despite the uncertainty that ever changing Covid protocols are bringing, we’re firing on our heaviest slate of the season in week 17. With so many teams still in the playoff chase, the majority of teams are still going to be giving maximum effort, and the handful that are already eliminated may be fade-able. This weekend ended up being our largest card to-date as we have a total of 8 wagers, two on one contest. We’ve got a little bit of everything with totals, spreads and a teaser. The slate is chalky for us, but we put the time into the analysis and we’re rolling with it. Happy New Year and best of luck this weekend and in 2022!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
New England Patriots -16 (-110)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
With an opening spread of 16.5 points in favor of the home team New England Patriots, this game with the Jacksonville Jaguars figures to be a bit of a mismatch. There is a nice storyline, as first round quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones will face off for the first time in their young careers. Time will tell which quarterback will end up with the more successful career, but Lawrence and the Jaguars could be in store for a long day in Foxboro.
It’s been a rocky start to the career of first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, and things are unlikely to improve against the New England Patriots. For starters, the Jaguars are near the bottom in almost every meaningful offensive metric, and that include when they actually had a somewhat healthy roster. In this game they’re going to battle with potential four backup offensive linemen, and a skill set consisting of Dare Ogunbowale, Laquon Treadwell and Marvin Jones, Jr. That’s not great when facing one of top defenses in the league that was embarrassed the last two weekends. There isn’t actually a ton to break down here as it’s difficult to see the Jaguars being able to establish any kind of running game, the one area where the Patriots can potentially be a little soft. Putting the ball into Lawrence’s hands against the pass rush of Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy with weapons who won’t be able to separate against the Patriots veteran secondary is a recipe for disaster. Victory for Jacksonville on offense might be gaining a first down each possession, and not turning the football over.
Just a few weeks ago there was talk of how the Patriots struck gold again, and wouldn’t skip a beat between Tom Brady and their next savior at the quarterback position. Things can change quickly in the NFL as rookie Mac Jones has looked a lot more like a rookie quarterback in some tough meetings with the Colts and Bills. The Patriots know that for them to make a run in this postseason, and in the future, they’ll need Mac Jones to become the leader that they believe he can be. Sunday is a great opportunity for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to re-build some confidence in the young QB, and they’ll want to take advantage of that. They’ll start with using their offensive line, to get their running game going with Damien Harris and the returning Rhamondre Stevenson. With the Jaguars potentially missing six of their top 8 players in their front seven, expect a lot of yards chewed up on the ground. All of this should set Jones back up to find his receivers and tight ends in open windows, making things easier than they’ve been in recent games. This could be a good spot for the Pats to take some rare shots down the field in search of some bigger plays.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 0-16 straight up in their last 16 road games
– The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
Remember when the New England Patriots were absolutely blowing teams out just a few weeks ago? Well, get ready for that activity to resume in this football game. We all know Bill Belichick’s history with facing rookie quarterbacks, and this rookie quarterback may have the least support of any he’s faced coming into Foxboro. With the Pats suffering back-to-back defeats, this is an opportunity for New England to get back on track against the most dysfunctional team in the league. It’s bad enough that the Jaguars coaching and organization are a mess, but they’ve also been hit hard with injuries and Covid across the board. There really isn’t a matchup across the board where the Jaguars will have the upper hand, and it will be equally as difficult for them to score, as it will to stop the Patriots. It’s important to also point out that the Jaguars haven’t won a road game, and mostly haven’t been competitive playing away from home in what amounts to a full NFL season. We’re going to double-dip with this one, fading the Jaguars in both their scoring ability and the cover. The days of not laying points with such large spreads in the NFL are in the past, this one shouldn’t be close.
BetCrushers Take: New England Patriots -16 / Jacksonville Jaguars – Team Total Under 13
Patriots 35, Jaguars 10
Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (7-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Sunday January 2nd
1:00pm
FOX
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
While their records aren’t separated by a substantial amount in the win and loss columns, the Falcons and Bills are on opposite ends of the NFL spectrum heading into their week 17 matchup in Buffalo. Both teams do need a victory, as the Bills are looking to hold onto their division lead, and the Falcons are simply trying to survive in the crowded NFC playoff picture. Do the Falcons have enough firepower to overcome a stingy Buffalo defense, if they’re able to slow down the explosive Bills offense?
All things considered, Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense hasn’t been all that terrible during the 2021 season. The offensive line has been a bit of a trouble spot, although at times they’ve performed fairly well. They’ll be a focal point in this game as the Bills lead the league in quarterback pressures with their front four rushers. Matt Ryan still has the ability to make plays, when he’s protected in the pocket. How well his line can hold up will be one critical piece of whether or not the Falcons can move the ball and get points against the Bills defense. The other part of the equation is whether or not they can hit some big plays. When the Bills have faltered on defense this year, it’s generally been getting hit by a big run, or broken play. The good news for Atlanta is they have one of the best big play threats in the league with do-it-all weapon Cordarelle Patterson. Offensive coordinator Dave Ragone has done a nice job getting Patterson involved, and he’ll need some creativity against the Bills to unleash their top threat. Getting back to Matt Ryan, the veteran QB has done a nice job in recent weeks getting Russell Gage involved more in the game plan. This has also helped free up rookie Kyle Pitts, ultimately making the Falcons offense diverse in defending. With Tre’Davious White not in the Bills secondary, Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson will draw the assignments of Pitts and Gage, so a third option, probably Olamide Zaccheaus will need to step up to offer support. Everything ultimately circles back to Atlanta’s offensive line and what they will allow Ryan to do as far as timing, and taking care of the football.
The world got a taste of just how good Josh Allen can be as he stepped up both throwing and running the football to defeat the Patriots last weekend. Allen will probably keep things more on the weight of his arm against the Falcons, preserving some running if not necessary. The Falcons are thin on the defensive line so unless they’re looking to blitz often, they’ll probably dropping in coverage in an effort to make Allen throw around them. The big question for the Bills is how they’re going to attack at the wide receiver position? Both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis return this week from the Covid list, but the strong play of Isaiah McKenzie in their absence leaves some question marks in terms of personnel. Ultimately, that’s a good problem for the team to have, as the team will probably need to involve their complimentary pieces. The reason being is Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell has been downright unbeatable this season, and will draw a lot of individual coverage with Stefon Diggs. Allen will need to show patience in targeting his top wideout and make sure not to take any unnecessary chances that could result in turnovers. Don’t be shocked if the Bills also continue to try to work on their running game as they prepare for the playoffs. The Falcons have been solid defending the run, but if the Bills can get up early, they may uncharacteristically look to run more than they throw in the second half.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. NFC opponents
As we started this breakdown mentioning the slim difference in records, we’re going to restate the fact that these teams are nowhere close in terms of competition. The Falcons are trying to keep their slim chances alive, but the matchups for them in this game are going to be too much for them to overcome. With the exception of the inexplicable loss to the Jaguars, the Bills have absolutely throttled teams that are not considered elite talent. Count us in the group that doesn’t consider the Falcons an elite ballclub heading into the final two weeks. Keep an eye on the weather report as January weather in Buffalo looks like it might be a little chilly and windy. That should also favor into the home team, as Matt Ryan could find throwing the football even more challenging in the elements. The Bills could be a little flat coming off of their big win against the Patriots, but they’ll be able to do enough to cover the large spread by the end of the game.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills -14.5
Bills 30, Falcons 12
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (14-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Sunday January 2nd
1:00pm
FOX
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams have their second big road game in a row as they head to the east coast to face the Baltimore Ravens. The Rams have been inconsistent, however still boast an 11-4 record and working towards an NFC West crown. The Ravens on the other hand have had to work just to field a starting team between injuries and Covid player losses. John Harbaugh will need to be on top of his game to figure out how his team can pull off the needed home upset.
Something just isn’t completely clicking with the Los Angeles Rams offense since the loss of wideout Robert Woods earlier in the season. The team manages to find ways to get points, which is what good teams do, and what they’ll continue to work towards as they build their new chemistry. The team received some good news when left tackle Andrew Whitworth was cleared to return, just in time to matchup with Tyus Bowser and Justin Houston on the edge for the Ravens. That should also help Sony Michel, who has been elevated to clear starter with his strong play and the loss of Darrell Henderson to injury. The team may even get Cam Akers back for some spot duty, just 5 months after suffering a torn achilles. Regardless of who is in the backfield, the way the Rams will need to beat the Ravens is attacking through the air. Baltimore is in a slightly better spot than they were a week ago in terms of their secondary as they’ll have a couple players back, however the unit overall has really struggled since the loss of Marlon Humphrey. Two weeks ago, defensive coordinator Wink Martindale opted to double and triple team Davante Adams in an effort to force others to beat his defense. It will be really interesting to see if the Ravens employ a similar approach with league leader Cooper Kupp, or opt to spread out their defensive resources. If they do lock in on Kupp, Odell Beckham, Jr. and Van Jefferson could be in big days. A guy who has been a little quiet of late, who could also be a big factor this week is tight end Tyler Higbee. With all of the attention given to the receivers of the Rams, Higbee could find some room if Stafford has time in the pocket.
Lamar Jackson’s injury is apparently a lingering one, as all signs are pointing to Tyler Huntley getting the start after missing last week on the Covid list. Huntley has proven that he’s a capable fill-in as he’s had a great connection with tight end Mark Andrews, and been able to utilize his legs effectively when needed. While he’s not as explosive as Jackson, he may be a little more consistent. Huntley will be at home, but he may face his toughest test to date as the Rams boast a strong defensive line and an opportunistic secondary. The Ravens offensive line has been very up and down throughout the season, and they’ll need to have a strong performance against the front four of the Rams. We know Aaron Donald can wreak havoc up front, but it’s Leonard Floyd and Von Miller that will have important roles keeping Huntley contained and between the tackles. Los Angeles has some experience playing against guys like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson in their division, so they should be able to keep Huntley contained. The Rams have been pretty stout against the run all season, so Huntley will definitely need to make some plays down the field throwing the football for the Ravens to win. For both teams, the turnover battle will be critical in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Rams playing on the road
– The Ravens are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
Trying to figure out a game script in this game is a little difficult as both teams play a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde role. At first thought it would seem as though this might be a low scoring game as the Ravens defense will put up a “last stand” effort in their playoff hopes. While it wouldn’t be surprising if this game ends up 20-17, the secondary of the Ravens seems to be the sticking point we keep coming back to in handicapping this football game. How can this unit that contain the trio of wideouts and Tyler Higbee for the Rams? Things could start out slow for both teams, so you could consider a first half under, but we’re going to go with the matchup we like best. Give us the Rams getting over 24.5 points.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Rams – Team Total Over 24.5
Rams 28, Ravens 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) vs. New York Jets (4-11)
Sunday January 2nd
1:00pm
FOX
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
One of the other contests in week 17 with a large point spread features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Jets. Tampa has their eyes on another postseason run, as new York looks to build some momentum and gain experience as they wind down their season. The Jets have upset two playoff teams at home already, and with Tampa missing some key personnel, they’ll look to spring another upset victory.
All it took for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get their offense back on track was a game against the Carolina Panthers. With the help of an inept Panthers offense, Tampa both ran and threw their way to an easy victory as thoughts of the week before shutout slowly faded away. One key piece to that was the return of Antonio Brown, as the chemistry between he and Brady didn’t skip a beat as they connected early and often in the passing game. Brown will likely be WR1 again as the Bucs are taking it easy with several key starters on both sides of the football in preparation for the playoffs. Tampa is one of the teams in the league that has some really nice depth, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, which actually puts them in a unique spot in this game. A game against the lowly Jets gives this team the opportunity for some talented players to take advantage of their playing time. Example one will be running back Ronald Jones II. Jones was the starter a year ago before being unseated, and he’ll have a shot to run through a New York Jets defense that has been ranked in the bottom three in most of the relevant defensive categories. Wide receivers Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller will also get some extra playing time and are all good enough to win their matchups against the pieced together Jets secondary. And of course Tom Brady’s favorite target in old reliable Rob Gronkowski is there to make some plays when needed as well. With Quinnen Williams out in this contest, and Sheldon Rankins banged up, the Buccaneers offensive line should have no trouble keeping Brady clean.
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson made some nice plays a week ago as the team held on to beat the Jaguars in his battle with Trevor Lawrence. Wilson had to do a lot with a thin roster of receivers, and he may need to carry the team again if they want to pull off what would be a monster upset. The Jets running game has been average to be kind, and a matchup with the Bucs is not a great way for it to really get started on Sunday. That puts a lot of pressure on the young quarterback as he’ll be working with a less than stellar corps of receivers. The biggest positive we can find is that the Jets offensive line should be able to at least somewhat hold their own against the Bucs defense that’ll be missing a couple of key pass rushers. With a secondary that’s given up big plays all season, someone for the Jets will need to step up and try to give them some early points to keep them in the game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
Before we give this automatic win to the Buccaneers, let’s remember what happened to a healthy Tennessee Titan team and a Cincinnati Bengals team when they want in to play the Jets. The big difference here is that Tom Brady won’t enable the same letdown that the previously mentioned teams allowed to have happen. This game could be a blowout, or it could end up being close. Trying to determine just how invested both of these teams are in playing this game is a little difficult to tell. Where we’re focused is on fading what has been an incredibly bad New York Jets defense against the greatest quarterback in history. Even missing some key weapons, this seems like a game where Tom Brady can sleepwalk to 30+ points behind the running game and a couple of big plays. Our only concern here is whether or not the Jets can get any points of their own to keep the Tampa offense going. In short, could we see a 27-3 game where Brady sits out half of the 4th quarter and they run the clock out? It’s possible, but we’re going to play the numbers and the matchup and take the Buccaneers over their team point total.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Team Total Over 29.5
Buccaneers 34, Jets 18
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) vs. Washington Football Team (6-9
Sunday January 2nd
1:00pm
FOX
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Washington Football Team just two weeks ago in a game where Washington was decimated with Covid-missing players. They’ll meet again this Sunday with the Eagles looking for a repeat victory to help punch a playoff ticket, and Washington hoping to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last weekend to the Cowboys. Washington will have its roster more intact than in the first meeting, and they’ll be playing at home. Will it be enough to split the season series, or are the Eagles playoff bound?
Things haven’t necessarily looked pretty for the Philadelphia Eagles offense in recent weeks, yet somehow they’re managing to both get wins and put up points. The team will look to get off to a quicker start against a Washington team that had more physicality on their own sideline than they did on defense against the Cowboys. This group hasn’t really played well all season, as the soft schedule they faced in 2020 seems to have inflated the value of the defensive unit as a whole. The losses of Chase Young and Jon Bostic further damaged this group, and Landon Collins is now out for the remainder of the season as well. The Eagles are the perfect team to exploit these deficiencies as they attack the middle of the field both with their running game and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philly will be without Miles Sanders, but they’ve managed to get nice production from Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott when they’ve been pressed into duty. They may not have a huge day running the football, but between that trio and the legs of quarterback Jalen Hurts, they should be able to do enough to keep their streak of great rushing games going. The key to this really stems to their strong offensive line play. This unit has developed into a top tier group across the league as they wear down opponents and really have a nasty streak about them. The constant beating on opposing defenses could explain why the Eagles have been greatly outscoring their competition in second halves of games lately. As much as the Eagles will be focused on running and finding Goedert, the team needs to get some production from Devonta Smith and their wideouts not only in this game, but if they want to spring an upset in the playoffs.
In stating that things haven’t been pretty for the Philadelphia Eagles offense, we could suggest that things have been downright ugly for the Washington Football Team. A combination of sacks, turnovers, a slowed running game, and next to no vertical passing threat has really limited their offense. Antonio Gibson is still running hard, but it’s clear that this team misses some of the explosiveness that J.D. McKissic gives them catching balls out of the backfield. Gibson is questionable to play and may be limited, making this offense potentially one-dimensional. That’s not a good thing for a quarterback and passing game that are struggling. During the recent slump, stud wideout Terry McLaurin has been a complete non-factor as teams are taking him away with double teams and forcing someone else to beat them. The Eagles will no doubt roll their coverage towards McLaurin and take their chances with the other receivers on the field. It’s also important to point out that Logan Thomas was really playing well in his brief appearances this season at the tight end position. Without that additional threat, teams are really able to matchup with Washington at all levels.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. Washington
– The Eagles are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 road games
– Washington is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC East opponents
Let’s start this breakdown by stating that a lot of sharp bettors really seem to like the Washington Football Team this week. It’s fair to point out that there is probably some extra value with them coming off of the thrashing the country watched them take against the Cowboys. It’s also legitimate to point out that the Eagles haven’t really beaten anyone that great during their “hot” run. And of course, this is a divisional game between rivals who know each other well. The fact of the matter is, neither of these teams are particularly great. In our rankings, we have the Eagles as a “quality” team, and Washington as a bottom-tier squad. The BetCrushers generally don’t like to go against the sharp money, especially when it’s laying points on the road, but our numbers have this as more of an Eagles -6.5 spread. As a result, we’re sticking to our strategy and we’re taking the road team in what might be one of the grittier games of the weekend.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles -3
Eagles 26, Washington Football Team 20
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (7-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
Monday January 3rd
8:15pm
ESPN
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Miami Dolphins -3 (-120)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
Only one game separates all four teams in the AFC North as the division will come down the wire in the 2021 season. The first step in piecing together the puzzle begins when the Cleveland Browns play the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. Beleaguered quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger will face each other in what could be their final appearance on the same field. For these two teams, the playoffs realistically start with this football game.
The Cleveland Browns enter their must-win game with the Steelers about as whole as they’ve been on offense since early in the season. That’s good news in a game that figures to be a bit of a fist fight between bitter rivals. For years we’ve watched the Steelers dominate the Browns in the trenches, which more often than not led to easy victories for Pittsburgh. Things will look a little different in this game as the Browns offensive line will look to really push the front of the Steelers around. Cleveland has a huge advantage with their powerful offensive line and should be able to run the ball effectively. In a stat that’s almost impossible to comprehend, the Steelers are the worst team in the league at stopping the run. The last month of the season has seen them gashed repeatedly, even when they know the run is coming. The Browns will serve up heavy doses of Nick Chubb, and it’s going to be really tough for Pittsburgh to stop. Strong safety Terrell Edmunds will be living in the box, however it still may not be enough to stop Chubb and the running attack. All of this is not new information, it’s really stating the obvious. What is going to be entertaining to watch is whether or not Baker Mayfield can bounce back from his atrocious 4 interception game from a week ago? With the Steelers needing to sell out to stop Chubb, Mayfield is going to have to hit some open throws when they’re presented to him. While Cleveland doesn’t have the most electric group of receivers, it’s a capable room, and when added with their tight ends is more than enough. The one area that does favor the Steelers, as it does in many games, is with pass rusher extraordinaire T.J. Watt. The Browns are without starting right tackle Jack Conklin, which means backup James Hudson will get the tough assignment in containing Watt. The Steelers best weapon to stop the Browns on offense is to put them in third and long situations, or force turnovers. This is the area where T.J. Watt must be a big factor.
We’re down to the final two weeks of the season, and your guess is as good as ours as to what the identity of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is supposed to be? At times they seem to force the running game, and at times they spread it out and try to throw the ball around, and the situation almost doesn’t seem to be relevant. One thing that can be accurately stated, is that their offensive line has not really helped them out along the way. There were a lot of question marks heading into the season with the group up front, and the Steelers publicly stated they liked what they had. Things haven’t panned out too well as they’ve been sketchy, at best, in both run and pass protection. Despite having Myles Garrett, the Browns have actually been pretty poor at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so that should give Ben Roethlisberger a fighting chance to get the ball to his receivers. The team should also have exciting rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth back from concussion protocol which really helps them on third down and in the red zone. Big Ben will need to play well as Cleveland has been good against the run, and should be able to slow down Najee Harris in the running game. The Browns have given up their share of big plays and had some missed assignments this season, and in order to get this home win, Pittsburgh will need to take some shots down the field.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Steelers are 17-1 straight up in their last 18 games at home against the Browns
– The Steelers are 5-0-1 straight up in their last 6 home games
– The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Steelers
All signs point towards this being the final home game in the career of future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It’s tough to say just how much that emotion and momentum will factor into this game. This certainly seems like a game that will be a really close one, so you’d probably want to lean towards taking the points, or could even consider teasing the Steelers to a +9 number. We’re going a different route here as we’re using the trends and analytics to make a first half bet. The Steelers have been one of the worst first half teams of the entire season as their offense has often stalled out early in football games. The Browns, on the other hand, have been a much better first half team throughout the season. Put the two together, and it seems like this is a good opportunity to play the Browns with a first half bet.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns -1.5 First Half (Browns 13, Steelers 7)
Steelers 22, Browns 19
Teaser Bet
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
Sunday January 2nd
1:00pm
FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (7-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (12-3)
Sunday January 2nd
8:20pm
NBC
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
The Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts will play on Sunday with meaningful playoff implications abound. We aren’t certain that Carson Wentz will be available for the Colts, but we know the Raiders need a win to keep their bleak playoff hopes alive. A big NFC North divisional matchup is part two of our teaser this week as we’re back to Green Bay where the Packers will host the Minnesota Vikings, who are also playing for their playoff lives.
Although not yet official, it looks like Carson Wentz will be available for the Colts, relegating rookie QB Sam Ehlinger back to the bench for the time being. No one knows for sure what we’d see out of Ehlinger, but in reality, head coach Frank Reich isn’t too likely to give either QB much wiggle room in controlling the outcome of this game. With All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson back in the lineup, the Colts will look to shove a healthy dose of Jonathan Taylor down the necks of the Raiders. Whether it’s Wentz or Ehlinger at the helm, don’t expect Indy to take a lot of chances in the passing game. Las Vegas has been able to generate pressure all season with Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue off the edges, and if the Colts are missing their starting tackles, they’ll try to make that a non-factor. Don’t be shocked if Taylor ends up with near 30 carries in this game, as he pushes towards 2,000 yards rushing on the season. The Raiders offense on the other side has stalled out a bit of late, but they may get star tight end Darren Waller back for this game. Either way, it’s going to be tough for them to get much going in the passing game as the Colts have been stingy at home defending throws. Josh Jacobs finally got going a week ago, but the Raiders running game hasn’t been great all season. Even against an Indy defense that has given up a poor 4.7 yards per carry, the return of Darious Leonard should help keep that in check. The Colts have been one of the best teams the last few seasons at taking the ball away, and they should be able to manage some turnovers against Las Vegas.
The Packers are looking to put the nail in the coffin of their divisional foes from Minnesota in what looks like it will be a frozen Tundra. Game time temperatures could be near single digits, which is probably not what the Vikings are hoping for. The team should have Dalvin Cook back, and he’ll clearly be the key for their offense in the chilly conditions, especially with the Packers having some trouble lately stopping the run. Will Cook and the running game be able to do enough to consistently move the ball and get points though if the passing game is slowed down for Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson? The team had to shut down Adam Thielen, which is really a big blow as it shifts nearly all of the pressure in the passing game onto Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, you can argue that no team and quarterback are better suited to play a late season home game in the cold than the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. They’ll also look to attack the Vikings on the ground, who are equally poor at stopping the run. With the emergence of A.J. Dillon, this team has a legitimate one-two punch of talented backs that can run over you, or around you. The pieces around Davante Adams and Rodgers continue to shuffle around, however in a contest like this, does it even matter? Rodgers should be able to find ways to get the ball to Adams, and spread it around to guys like Allen Lazard and MVS when he needs to.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games
– The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Colts are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games
– The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games
– The Packers are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 home games
If you’re wagering the Raiders and Colts game, our best advice to you is to take the points with the Raiders. The Colts are probably mildly overvalued at this stage, and that game seems like it’ll be pretty close. We’re not huge fans of betting on the Raiders however, so we’re looking to tease the Colts in a home game that they should be able to squeeze out a win in. In the Vikings and Packers game, we’re also expecting a close contest. These teams know each other well, and the Vikings have played pretty much everyone close all season. Ultimately, we’re always going to be on Aaron Rodgers to win a home game that he is expected to win, even if not by much. These teasers fall nicely into place, and we’re hoping to extend our strong teaser mark on the season.
