Previous Week Plays – 1-4
Season Record – 19-15
Week 9 Recap:
At first glance, it’s easy to be disappointed about going 1-4 last week… And we absolutely are. However, bad weeks can happen in sports betting, and it was a cleanup week for the sportsbooks in week nine of the NFL. We didn’t get killed by playing favorites as much of the country did, but we still took a couple games on the chin. We’ll start with our lone victory of the week, which is actually the game that really went against the grain of sophisticated sports wagering. The Los Angeles Chargers secured a field goal win, as short favorites on the road against the Eagles. That game went about as we expected with the result we needed. Our four losses are split into two categories: Two that were the correct side, but wrong result, and two that were perplexingly way off. The Texans outgained the Dolphins and should have covered, however costly turnovers and 0 for 4 in the red zone doomed that opportunity. Speaking of outgaining, the Titans handily beat the Rams, spoiling leg two of our teaser. (The Chiefs had done their part against the Packers). The Rams actually really outplayed the Titans overall, but again, some bad turnovers and mistakes doomed them from getting the win. In fairness, the Packers also outgained the Chiefs, so maybe it was the right result losing the teaser? That moved our teaser bets to 7-3 on the season. The two head-scratching performances were by the Cowboys and the Bills, who were both upset as big favorites. We didn’t want to lay the big numbers, which of course ended up being right, however we did play their offenses team total overs. Dallas was shutout until the end of the 3rd quarter, which no one would have expected, even if they weren’t high on the Cowboys in the game. The Buffalo Bills had red zone drives on their first two possessions, but had to settle for 2 field goals. They never scored again. Against a Jaguars defense that has gotten torched through the air all season, watching Josh Allen and that offense struggle live was tough to see. Allen was pressured all day long in a game that proved again how offensive line play really makes the difference in the NFL. A really bizarre week in the league, and a rough one for the BetCrushers and the betting public alike.
Week 10 Picks:
Outside of three divisional contests, week number ten offers some more fairly unusual matchups. There are half a dozen spreads around the double digit mark, so obviously not the most compelling games of the season. In almost all of these large spreads, it feels like taking the points would be the correct side. Is anyone really wanting to put their faith in teams like the Detroit Lions and New York Jets though? We don’t recommend the 10 point teaser approach, but if there is ever a week to explore that opportunity this might be it. There are some nice traditional teaser options focused more teasing upwards than down. Things may be a little unstable in the NFL right now, and we’re firing away anyhow with a big card for us this Sunday. Seven bets are lined up, including three different opportunities in the Cleveland and New England game. One of those is a teaser bet that we’re not in love with, but feel like we need to play. We’ve got a game total under, a team total under, and two team total overs as well. Whatever you’re playing this week, best of luck to you.
Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (5-4) vs. New England Patriots (5-4)
Sunday November 14th
1:00pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Don’t look now, but the New England Patriots are suddenly right in the thick of things in the AFC East and the conference. They’ll look to get what’s all of a sudden rare home victory against the now OBJ-less Cleveland Browns. This is not only one of the more intriguing football games of week ten, but is also likely to have end of season playoff implications.
For everyone who continually stated that Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback without Odell Beckham, Jr., we’ll find out for sure moving forward. The Browns QB played a nice game a week ago against the Bengals, and will need to be on point against the New England defense. Fortunately for Mayfield, he shouldn’t have to carry the entire burden on offense as the Browns have a big advantage up front. The Patriots have just been mediocre against the run, which is how the Browns offense is structured. The team has ruled out Nick Chubb so D’Ernest Johnson once again gets his chance to carry the running game. Fortunately, behind the Browns offensive line, it shouldn’t matter much who is handling the rock. This figures to definitely be a grind it out type of game, with a lot of bruises and gang tackles. As long as Cleveland can somewhat run and keep New England’s defense honest, it will limit what the Patriots can do from a scheme standpoint. That’s important because it’s tough to see where the Browns will be able to exploit a solid New England secondary? The Pats’ have been good defending tight ends, so someone in the wide receiver ranks is going to step up for the Browns. Going back to where we started here, this really comes down to whether or not the Browns can outmuscle New England in the trenches.
Rookie Mac Jones is really starting to settle in as he gains valuable experience in Josh McDaniels offense. Things line up differently for New England as their offensive line could have some challenges blocking, particularly in the run game. The Browns have been great stopping the run, which should force the Patriots to be a little more one dimensional, and or creative offensively. Don’t be shocked if you see New England go into the bag of tricks to get something going on offense. When you look at the Patriots schedule, this should be a similar matchup for Jones to what he faced when he played Tampa Bay earlier in the season. You can’t really evaluate too much from that game based on the fact they were playing in some horrible weather there. We’ll get a good look at how Jones does if he’s forced to carry the offense. Keep an eye on the Browns edge tandem of Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney who are both banged up heading into the contest. Against a rookie quarterback these are guys who can be game wreckers if they’re able to make those tide-changing plays. Much as with the Browns, the Patriots are going to need to find a receiver to win matchups if the running game stalls. They spent a lot of offseason money bringing in free agents for games exactly like this.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Patriots are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games
Not only will this be a black and blue type of football game, it should wind up being a really competitive one as well. As cliché as it sounds, the team that takes care of the football and doesn’t make the big mistakes will probably end up winning this game. With the Browns as an underdog, there ends up being a total of three plays we like with them this week. Two here, and one as a teaser discussed at the end of this article. The Patriots haven’t been great at home this season, and the Browns have been pretty good on the road. Even without Nick Chubb in the lineup, we believe their offense should be able to do just enough to top the very game Patriots in a crucial contest.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns +2.5 / Game Total – Under 45
Browns 21, Patriots 20
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Sunday November 14th
4:05pm
FOX
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-115)
Over/Under 53.5 (-110)
The stars will be out in Los Angeles when the Minnesota Vikings look to stay in the playoff hunt in a tough contest with the Chargers. No team has played in more dramatic finishes this season than the Vikings, and the Chargers can relate coming off of a last second field goal win last week themselves. Each team has needs this win and should have an advantage on the offensive side of the ball. Remember when the Chargers were playing tough and losing a lot of close games? The roles have reversed as the Vikings have had some crushing last second losses this season.
When you look at the metrics for the Vikings on offense, it’s been pretty solid as you’d expect. Even though they’ve had some nice performances, they haven’t really seemed to have played a great complete game from start to finish when you really look back at their games. (Yes, they’ve put up points and were strong for most of the game against the Ravens last week). They have things set up nicely based on the way they prefer to play as the Chargers have not been able to stop the run. That means this needs to be a Dalvin Cook monster performance if the Vikings want to win this football game. Cook is dealing with some personal issues, so we’ll have to see if that distracts him negatively, or if the game is his own helpful distraction from the world. Truth be told, the Vikings have to run the ball well because the Chargers have been good defending the pass. There are some juicy matchups with the Vikings talented receivers taking on the Los Angeles secondary. When it’s muscle versus muscle, the big question is, who can come out on top? Minnesota needs to make that less of a question by simply punishing the Chargers with Cook and the ground game.
The Chargers aren’t the only team that have struggled stopping the run, as the Vikings have been pretty poor also. Austin Ekeler is a really good running back, but the Chargers haven’t really been able to establish consistent running this season. Depending on how things shake out on the other side of the ball, may determine how they end up playing offensively with their approach. It certainly wouldn’t be the worst idea if they tried to get Ekeler and their backs going, as there are yards to be had. Ultimately, the team is going to put the ball in the hands of quarterback Justin Herbert and try to win the game with their own duo of talented receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The absence of pass rusher Danielle Hunter is going to be a big factor here as Herbert should find enough time in the pocket. Veteran linebacker Anthony Barr may not be able to go either, further limiting how they want to defend the Chargers. Los Angeles has stated they want Jared Cook to be a bigger factor in the offense so keep an eye on the big tight end. In a football game that figures to be pretty close, the kicking game and special teams could also play a big part in the final outcome.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games
– The total has gone over in the Vikings last 5 road games
– The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
On the Wager Rager podcast week preview we mentioned that of all of the games this week, this one seems to have that “field goal” difference winner. As the Chargers have rebounded and figured out how to win close games, the Vikings have been unable to clear the hurdle in tight matchups. This spread seems accurate, and the total seems about right. Based on a projected score, the value really rests with the Chargers offense team total. It’s still available on multiple sites at over 26.5, which should be do-able against the current Vikings defense. As we mentioned, after a nice start to the season, some critical injuries are going to make it tough to slow down Justin Herbert and his cast of weapons. The Chargers should be in the upper 20’s or lower 30’s when the clock hits zero.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Chargers – Team Total Over 26.5
Chargers 29, Vikings 26
Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
Detroit Lions (0-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Sunday November 14th
1:00pm
FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
No one is safe at this juncture of the NFL season as we’ve witnessed over the past 5 days. The Pittsburgh Steelers were hopefully paying attention to what happened to teams like the Cowboys, Bills and Ravens in the Any Given Sunday scenarios. The Detroit Lions have been a feisty bunch this season, desperate to secure their first much needed win. This will be smooth sailing for the Steelers in Heinz Field, or will it?
We’ve covered the Lions offense, or lack thereof in some previous articles. Jared Goff has not been great as the lack of weapons really makes their offense labor up and down the field. One thing we’ve clearly seen is this coaching staff isn’t afraid to pull out all the stops in an effort to help the inexplosive offense. They’ll probably need to continue to do so against Pittsburgh, as their defense can be really tough behind the terrible towels and home crowd. Statistically speaking the Steelers defense hasn’t really been great, it’s been more of a quality unit. They’ve had some tough matchups though, and have gone through stretches where they’re imposing their will on the opponent. They’ll look to do that against a Lions front that has actually been a pretty solid unit upfront. The blueprint for the Lions in this game is pretty obvious, although not necessarily easy to implement. They need to run the ball well to give Jared Goff some options with play-action passing and slow down T.J. Watt and the Steelers pass rushers. Detroit will be without Jamaal Williams, so D’Andre Swift will have to be a workhorse both running and receiving. If the Steelers can bottle up Swift and make Goff one dimensional, it won’t be pretty for the Lions, despite the fact the Steelers have gotten beat for some big plays in the passing game. The lack of true weapons at receiver are going to make it really difficult for the Lions to take advantage of the susceptible Steelers secondary. The Steelers have been good defending tight ends, so T.J. Hockenson may not be able to be a big factor either. We generally talk about rookies when we discuss turnovers, but Jared Goff needs time to throw and to not get rattled in the pocket while taking care of the ball.
There is some good news with the Steelers offense and still a little bit of not so great news. The positive is that running back Najee Harris is really developing into the player they thought he’d be as their first selection in this year’s draft. The not so great news is the Steelers still struggle a bit throwing the football at times. They’re without wide receiver Chase Claypool against Detroit, so Diontae Johnson is going to see a lot of targets. Rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth is developing into a nice player, call him Heath Miller volume two. He will need to step up without Claypool and the previously injured Juju Smith-Schuster available. The Steelers offensive line has been up and down as they’re still working to gel together, and will have to continue to improve on Sunday and the rest of this season. Fortunately they’re facing a defense that has also been figuring things out on the fly with the Lions, so it’ll be an interesting push up front. Ben Roethlisberger is not quite as strong in the pocket as he was in his younger days so he needs a clean pocket and some time to find his wide receivers. Keep a close eye on wideout James Washington this week as he could play a big role in the passing game and could have a breakout performance.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 Lions games
– The Steelers have won 4 straight games
For a large portion of the Ben Roethlisberger era the Steelers have often been known to play to the level of their opponent. They can compete with the big dogs, but often let lesser teams hang around. That could be the case here so you can certainly consider taking the chunk of points with the Lions. With that being said, who the heck wants to wager real money on the Detroit Lions? We certainly don’t, in fact we’re expecting a really tough day for Jared Goff. The weather looks shaky for this game in Pittsburgh, and Goff could be under some constant pressure from the Steelers, especially if they can’t run the ball well. The under is an option in this game, but what happens if the Lions implode like they did against the Eagles? After surprising the Niners in week one by putting up 33 points, here is the offensive point totals for Detroit since: 17, 17, 14, 17, 11, 19, and 6. If you weren’t keeping track, that means they’ve only crossed the 17 point threshold one time since the season opener. With an under team total of 17.5 available at -120, the trends and matchup tell us that’s the ticket here.
BetCrushers Take: Detroit Lions – Team Total Under 17.5
Steelers 20, Lions 13
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (4-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Sunday November 14th
1:00pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Dallas, TX
Dallas Cowboys -9 (-110)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)
Last Sunday the Atlanta Falcons were big road underdogs against the New Orleans Saints, and the Dallas Cowboys were heavy home favorites versus the Denver Broncos. One team came away with a win and the other walked out with a loss. As Chris Berman has stated for decades, “that’s why they play the games”. Are the Falcons quietly making a run at an unexpected playoff berth, or can the Cowboys regroup and prove they’re amongst the NFL elite?
Give Matt Ryan some credit for continuing to play the QB position at a fairly high level with the loss of two of the games most talented wide receivers. While we’re at it, let’s give the Falcons staff some credit for turning Cordarelle Patterson into one of the most explosive players in the league. Patterson figures to be a key once again to any chance the Falcons have of pulling off a second straight road upset in AT&T Stadium. The Dallas defense, while improved, still has had some big time problems in both run and pass defense. Much like their electric cornerback Travon Diggs, it’s often boom or bust for this group. They’re either making big plays or giving them up. The Cowboys will look to neutralize Patterson, and force someone else to beat them. If they can do that, they should be in a good spot as the Falcons don’t have a lot of legitimate big play threats beyond the speedy utility weapon. Kyle Pitts will certainly have his chances to make some plays as well, and if Matt Ryan has time could be a factor. He definitely needs to be a factor as the Falcons offense looks vastly different when he’s creating mismatches and making plays in the passing game. The Cowboys defense is a little banged up, most notably missing their top rushers in Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory. That bodes will for the Falcons chances of keeping Ryan upright and allowing him the time he needs to operate. Dallas has looked noticeably different when Gregory is in the lineup as opposed to on the sideline. Let’s see if the Cowboys can still get a pass rush without having to bring extra pressure from their talented linebackers.
What would the odds have looked like for the Dallas Cowboys to have zero points heading into the late stages of the third quarter against the Denver Broncos? Our Cowboys over total looked pathetic as the team was unable to run or throw the ball and could not sustain any drives in the first half against Denver. The encouraging thing for the Boys’ is they won’t face nearly as tough of a test when they go after the Falcons defense. Atlanta has been up and down defensively, but they’ll also be a little thin on the defensive line. That’s not good when facing what we can assume will be a fired up and aggressive Cowboy offensive line. Though Dallas will be with Tyron Smith again this week, the rest of their unit is intact and should be able to have their way up front. Look for early heavy doses of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to not only set the tone, but allow the team to settle into their rhythm and open up the passing game. The young A.J. Terrell has been a really good corner for Atlanta so far this season so watch closely where he is lined up on the field. The Cowboys are likely to steer Dak Prescott away from him, which means it could be another big game for tight end Dalton Schultz.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Falcons
– The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS so far this season
– The total has gone over in 9 of the last 13 games for the Cowboys
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 home games for the Cowboys
This game will be a true test to see how the Dallas Cowboys respond to the first implosion of their otherwise stellar season. Good teams bounce back from performances like that, so we’ll know what kind of team we’re looking at based on how they play. The BetCrushers have been riding the Cowboys cash cow all season and we’re not jumping off of that just yet. The slow offensive performance should not be a repeat thing against this Falcons defense. We’re not letting the scar heal before we go right back to the same wager we had with this team one week ago. Give us a strong offensive showing from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense, or at least enough total points to cash this bet.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys – Team Total – Over 31.5
Cowboys 34, Falcons 24
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (1-7) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-7)
Sunday November 14th
4:25pm
CBS
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -3 (-120)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
A pair of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks should make their return in the late afternoon window, in a game with the Seattle Seahawks versus the Green Bay Packers. Russell Wilson exceeded his timetable to return from his finger injury, while Aaron Rodgers hopes to come off of the COVID-19 list after a tumultuous PR week. The Packers would like to rebound from a loss to the Chiefs behind backup QB Jordan Love, and the Seahawks are in desperate need of a win to keep any shot at the postseason alive.
To say that the Seattle Seahawks missed face of the franchise Russell Wilson would be the biggest understatement in the world. Even with an experience backup in Geno Smith, the team simply didn’t have the intangibles to get over the hump in his absence, outside of a win against the lowly Jaguars. Wilson will be chomping at the bit to take on the Packers, a team that is still without it’s top players on their defense. Green Bay has actually played fairly well defensively considering they are missing talents like Jaire Alexander and Z’Darius Smith. How well they can contain Wilson just may depend on how much rust is on the quarterback, especially considering he hasn’t really missed substantial time during his career. Our guess is it won’t take Russ too long to get back into rhythm, and you can bet that no one is more excited to have him back than Tyler Lockett. The speedy wideout is poised to re-enter the picture in the offense, but it’s his counterpart that could be the big factor in this game. D.K. Metcalf has been consistent this season, and this is a game where he can use his physicality against the Green Bay cornerbacks. If Wilson has time in the pocket, look for Metcalf to get even more targets than he normally does. While all eyes will be on the passing games, don’t lose sight of what the Seahawks can do on the ground. Alex Collins is banged up, and Chris Carson is still out, so can the Hawks’ take advantage of a suspect run defense?
We’re not getting into the Aaron Rodgers drama regarding his COVID-19 status and all of that fun, but we are going to talk about what that might mean moving forward. Assuming Rodgers can clear protocols and be active in the game, it’s going to be extremely fun to see what we get from him. He won’t have had a week to practice which would be an issue for a lot of quarterbacks, but it won’t be for Rodgers. With all due respect to the G.O.A.T. in Tampa Bay, no quarterback in the league loves to give the proverbial middle finger more than the guy in Green Bay. All you have to do is think back to that touchdown against the Bears when he received a double bird from a fan in the stands, and how he responded. With the heat that he has taken in the media, this has that “stick it to em'” type of performance written all over it. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s facing a Seahawks defense that hasn’t exactly been fantastic this year either. In fairness, the Hawks’ defense has improved from the early part of the season and is playing better as of late. It’s hard to figure out if the team has game-planned and performed better, or if they were benefiting from some lesser competition and playing hard for the backup quarterback? Either way, they’re going to need to have an answer for Davante Adams as have to stop the running game of Green Bay. With some big news around the league, the Packers quietly got some really great news of their own this week. Star left tackle David Bhaktiari was activated from IR, which should give the GB offensive line a boost in the second half of the season even though he is unlikely to suit up against Seattle.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Seahawks
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 road games for the Seahawks
– The Seahawks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups against the Packers
– The total has gone under in the last 6 games for the Packers
This may be the most compelling game of the Sunday slate, despite the fact that the Seahawks are a longshot at this stage to make the playoffs. Watching Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson is a treat we’ve had several times over the last decade, and who knows how many more of these we may get? The spread is interesting here as we normally love getting more than a FG with Wilson, as he almost always keeps his team close. However, Rodgers is great at home, and with some extra motivation against a subpar Seattle defense the Packers could cover the line. What’s a lot more appealing to us is looking at the total staying under. Outside of the normal fact of unders are hitting at a higher percentage than overs in the 2021 season, the Packers have been racking up unders repeatedly. Even though the weather isn’t expected to be terrible, it will be a cold day in Wisconsin, and both coaches will want to try to run the ball. The Packers like to play at a pretty slow pace to begin with. Lastly, there is still some uncertainty with the star quarterbacks. What if Russell Wilson’s finger does make things a little tougher, or it takes him a little while to knock the rust off? What if Rodgers isn’t cleared to play off of the COVID-19 list, or missing practice all week hurts his rotating corp of receivers? Add all of these factors up and the recent trends for both teams and it gives us enough of an angle to confidently bet the under.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 49.5
Packers 26, Seahawks 21
Teaser Bet
Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots
Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (5-4) vs. New England Patriots (5-4)
Sunday November 14th
1:00pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Detroit Lions (0-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Sunday November 14th
1:00pm
FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
You saw the breakdowns of both of these games above, and we’re going ahead and pairing the AFC North teams up in a teaser. In full transparency this isn’t the most confident teaser we’ve ever gotten down with, so tail at your own risk here. This teaser is strictly a numbers play as we’re following the dealers rulebooks on what to do here. The Browns should be able to keep the game close against the Patriots, and the Steelers should find a way to win at home. The Ravens loss on Thursday Night Football opens up the door for both of these teams in the crowded North division, let’s hope they both show up at a point in the season where we’re seeing some bizarre things happening.
