Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 16-9
Week 7 Recap:
Slow and steady wins the race, and week 7 and our NFL season are holding that pattern. Another light week with only three bets yielded a 2-1 winning record, extending our season record to 16-9. The day started out with an ugly loss for us, as we watched the Kansas City Chiefs struggle with their worst offensive performance of the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes regime. We of course had taken the KC team total over, expecting big scoring and a shootout against the Titans. That never materialized as Mahomes was under durress all game and mustered a pathetic 3 points in an eye opening result. Things went more according to plan with our teaser bet as both the Packers and Patriots held serve at home and came away with fairly decisive wins to cash. In a little bit of irony, it was the Packers that had a little bit of a challenge getting things done, and the Patriots who cruised. We anticipated if anything, it might be the other way around. At the end of the day, a cover is a cover and it evened our mark at 1-1. Our final wager was grabbing the points with home dog Seattle and backup quarterback Geno Smith against the New Orleans Saints. It wasn’t pretty, but Seattle kept it close behind the 12th Man, and got the cover win.
Week 8 Picks:
You know it’s another odd slate when the BetCrushers don’t have an officially placed teaser bet. That’s the case in week 8 as we don’t have a teaser lined up for the first time in, well we’re not sure, but let’s say probably at least a season or so. It must be the spookiness that we’re anticipating with the NFL schedule being played on Halloween day. Combing through all of the options, we’ve settled on four bet, as we simply don’t want to push what we aren’t comfortable with. We’re taking a side in a game that really has no business being wagered on to start out the day. Following that up with a really important AFC South battle, and continuing with a total in the NFC South. We’re also fading some scoring for a team playing with a backup quarterback. In reviewing our week 8 preview, it’s mildly more reckless than we’ve maybe been this season, but tis’ the season. Happy Halloween and happy winning!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) vs. Detroit Lions (0-7)
Sunday October 31st
1:00pm
FOX
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Two desperate teams will square off in Detroit as the Philadelphia Eagles look to get back into the win column, while the Lions are still searching for their first victory of the season. Both respective first year head coaches really need the win, although the Lions Dan Campbell isn’t feeling the pressure as much as the Eagles Nick Sirianni. Outside of draft position, there isn’t much on the line here, unless you’re wagering on the outcome of the contest. Hmmm…
The offense in Philadelphia had shown some flashes of explosiveness this season, before really slowing down over the past few weeks. Whether it’s an inability to establish a running game, or misfired passes, Philly is not putting enough offense up. If there is ever going to be a good time to get right, it’s a matchup with the Detroit Lions. The Lions have actually been respectable for the most part defensively, but some of that is based on game script. The Eagles provide a bit of a challenge though, because of the mobility of quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Lions lack the athleticism and depth defensively to defend both the pass and the run. It’s fair to mention two really important points before we hand this thrashing to the Eagles. First, Philadelphia and Hurts need to prove they can throw the football, to avoid the Lions strictly playing the run. Hurts has had accuracy issues and is often hesitant to throw into tight windows. The Lions secondary is vulnerable, so this could be a spot where rookie Devonta Smith has a big performance. Secondly, we do have to mention that the Lions were able to largely slow down MVP candidate Lamar Jackson just a few weeks back. This will largely be a choppy contest that could have a lot of big plays both offensively and defensively.
Jared Goff continues to take a lot of criticism in Detroit, despite giving his team a chance to win most weeks. He’s really having to fight with one hand tied behind his back, as beyond tight end T.J. Hockenson, he just doesn’t have enough weapons to work in the passing game. In this matchup, Hockenson needs to be his main target as the Eagles have had some trouble defending opposing tight ends. Darius Slay, Jr. should take care of his side of the field, so Goff needs to really be careful with where he goes with the football. The good news for the Lions, is the Eagles have not been as good at stopping the run as they have been in recent years, so they might have some success with their running game. A fast start for the Lions should give them an edge if the Eagles are just going through the motions based upon their locker room morale.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 0-7 straight up in their last 7 home games
– The Eagles are 3-4 ATS this season
Normally it’d be tough to find an edge or betting angle when you’re talking about two teams that aren’t playing great. The right move actually seems to take the points with the hook at home with the Lions. No chance we’re doing that though. Instead, we studied a little deeper to find that even though the Lions have played some teams close, it’s often from late 4th quarter garbage time comebacks. They’ve been down double digits in all but one game heading into the 4th quarter. Throw in the fact that this Lions team snuck up on the Rams a week ago with multiple fake punts, a successful onside kick recovery and 4th down conversions, and things should regress a bit to the mean. Even though the Eagles haven’t been a greatly coached team, and there is some concern there, they’ll be ready for the kitchen sink if the Lions try to throw it again in this football game. Since the hook is a bit scary, and we have the data of the Lions struggling through the first three quarters of football games, we’re going with a first half over bet here. Will the Eagles get a much needed win? We can’t say for sure, but we’ll wager on the fact that they should be winning this football game at halftime.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (First half) 13-10
Eagles 23, Lions 20
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (5-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Sunday October 31st
1:00pm
CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -2 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
One of the more important football games of week number eight is an AFC South matchup between the Titans and the Colts. With the Jaguars and Texans not remotely a threat inside the division, this game has major implications on who may ultimately come away with the crown. A Titans road win would firmly plant them as the leader in the clubhouse, while a Colts win would tighten things up as we head towards the second half of the season.
Everyone is well aware of how well Derrick Henry is playing this season. The back is practically lapping the other rushers in the league through seven games. Lost in some of that, is how well Ryan Tannehill has played the last couple of weeks, with the return of his weapons at the wide receiver position. Unfortunately for the Titans, Julio Jones was ruled out with his lingering hamstring injury, so Tannehill will be a little short of his targets once again. It’s not just missing Jones that could prove challenging, the blind side for Tannehill could be exposed as well, depending on the injury status of his first two string left tackles. Kendall Lamm is truly questionable to go for this one. As always, the Titans will try to rev their offensive engine with the previously mentioned Henry in the backfield. Throughout his career Henry has been a little up and down against the Colts. He’s had some big games, but also had some tougher performances in others. The Colts have been just middle of the pack against the run, so it’ll be a tough task slowing down the league’s leading rusher. The Jones injury is big, because it should allow Indy to bring some safety help to try to contain Henry. In simple terms, two weapons (Henry and A.J. Brown) are a lot easier to gameplan for, than having to stop three. With all three on the field, Tannehill and offense looked nearly unstoppable. It’ll be a little tougher for the Titans on the road against a divisional foe.
The secret is out around the league that Carson Wentz is actually playing some pretty good football. Head coach Frank Reich is putting Wentz in some favorable spots and not putting the pressure on him that we saw cause havoc the previous two seasons in Philadelphia. Things turned the corner a month ago when the Colts started feeding Jonathan Taylor, and went away from the more committee type approach at running back. Taylor is probably the biggest key in this game, as he should be able to run his way to a big game against a Titans defense that has allowed over 4.5 yards per carry to enemy runners. If Taylor can get things going, Wentz should be able to exploit the Titans secondary in a way that was commonplace, until last week when the Chiefs stumbled. A big part of that was the constant pass rush that Titans were employing with their front four. That will be much tougher for them against the Colts offensive line, and again, very difficult if Taylor is running well. Despite some rusty uncharacteristic penalties from All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, we saw the impact he can have with his bullying style of play. The formula for the Colts is pretty simple, win in the trenches, win the game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Colts are 14-4 straight up in their last 18 game vs. the Titans
– The Titans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. the Colts
This has been one of the oddest moving lines of the season as it opened with the Titans as slight road favorites. The line has swung heavily toward the Colts as sharp money came in on Indianapolis. The Titans have established themselves as a team to beat, but this road divisional game is a potential stumbling block, especially going in slightly short-handed. The line movement from basically a pick to -2 isn’t a dealbreaker as we’re still below the key number of 3, however seeing that transformation is a little scary. We’re sticking with our original breakdown, which has the Colts finding a way to slow down Derrick Henry and coming away with a win that will tighten up the race in the AFC South, at least for a little while.
BetCrushers Take: Indianapolis Colts -2
Colts 27, Titans 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Sunday October 31st
4:25pm
FOX
Caesar’s Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 (-110)
Over/Under 50 (-110)
The NFC South also has an important game scheduled when the Buccaneers head to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Tampa is also looking to distance itself from the Saints, and a win would strengthen their hold on first place. New Orleans is hopeful that their current quarterback, Jameis Winston, can get some revenge against his former club.
How amazing is it that Tom Brady is potentially having his best season ever, in the year 2021? TB12 will look to continue his great play in a tough spot, against a team that really handled the Buccaneers a season ago. The Saints know the formula to beating up this Tampa team, and they’ll be looking to get in Brady’s face early and often to get him out of rhythm. Before we look at the passing game, it’s important to talk about how key the running game may be in this matchup. A large part of Tampa’s success has been because Leonard Fournette is giving them great balance and keeping opposing defenses honest. That will be more challenging against a Saints team that is rivaling this Bucs’ team for top run defense in the NFL. If Fournette and the running game are shut down, we could see a repeat of last year, with a heavy pass rush coming for Tom Brady. The improved Tampa rushing attack should be able to do enough to at least keep the team from becoming strictly one-dimensional. Jumping back to the passing game, TB will once again be without wide receiver Antonio Brown, who will miss his second straight game due to injury. That’s a big blow as he’s always a matchup winner against really any teams number three corner. Mike Evans has been locked up by Marson Lattimore in the past, and assuming Lattimore is good to go with his hand injury, that could be a stalemate battle once again. With Rob Gronkowski either out, or playing very limited, that puts a lot of pressure on Chris Godwin to win consistently. Godwin can be a streaky player, but there is no denying he has the ability to beat coverage and make plays if he can get hot. All of this circles back to the pass protection for Brady. If he has time, Brady will beat any team. If he doesn’t we could see a game go the wrong direction for the Bucs once again at the hand of their rival foes.
The term revenge game is often overused in sports, however if it’s thrown out there, then there is probably something to it. Jameis Winston wants this game, no matter what he says about it being just another important divisional contest. The exciting news for Winston is he’ll take on the Buccaneers battered secondary, that continues to give up plays in the passing game. The other side of the fence with this take, is Winston is limited on his own side with the lack of playmakers to throw to. We’ve seen that pretty much all season, and when the Saints can’t get Alvin Kamara going, the offense can really sputter. Kamara will have his work cut out for him against Vita Vea and the Bucs’ run defense, especially with the loss of Andrus Peat his talented run-blocking left guard. Look for Sean Payton to try to work Kamara into space in the passing game, something he knows when and how to do. Unless the Saints can get up big early, at some point they’re going to need to hit some passes down the field. The question is, who are these plays going to?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Buccaneers are averaging 33 points per game this season
– The total has gone over in 11 of the last 13 games Buccaneer games vs. the NFC South
– The Buccaneers are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 road games
This might be the most interesting game of week eight, as there is a legitimate question of whether or not the Saints have Tampa Bay and Tom Brady’s number? The Saints feel like the right side here as they’re playing at home, and the Buccaneers are still banged up at some really key positions. That being said, Brady is playing some of his best football we’ve seen, and this Saints team is not as good as it was a season ago on either side of the ball or on special teams. They also haven’t been as dominant in their cozy dome as we were once accustomed to. For those reasons we’re out on betting the spread either way, and we’re taking a team total angle instead. Even without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, this Tampa Bay offense is absolutely rolling. With a team total under 26.5 we feel like we just have to take a stab at their over. They’ve only not gotten to that number twice so far this year, one of which was played in a steady downpour of rain with some wind. This is more of an analytical play than anything, so let’s see if the odds can work in our favor here.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Team Total Over 26.5
Buccaneers 29, Saints 26
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) vs. New York Jets (1-5)
Sunday October 31st
1:00pm
CBS
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Cincinnati Bengals -11 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
A tale of two seasons when the Cincinnati Bengals head east to face the New York Jets. The preseason line actually had the Jets as small favorites, which speaks to the different directions that these clubs have taken through the first seven weeks of the season. An injury to Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, forces backup Mike White in as the next man up in this contest. The Jets were able to upset the Titans a few weeks ago, can they pull off another shocking win at home?
Raise your hand if you had the Bengals as the top seed in the AFC after seven weeks of the season? If you have your hand up, you’re lying, and that includes the coaches in that locker room. Cincinnati is playing complete football, and got some explosive plays offensively last week in their statement win against the Ravens. They’ll look to continue that hot play against a Jets defense that plays hard, but is undermanned at several positions. New York hopes to have middle linebacker C.J. Mosley back in the middle, and they’re going to need him to slow down the running game of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine for Cincinnati. If Mosley isn’t in the lineup, the Bengals should likely be able to get whatever they want in the short and intermediate range both running and throwing. Assuming he can go, that should be a little more pressure on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati passing strategy. Burrow has established a polished connection with rookie Ja’Marr Chase, and the combo could have yet another big day against the New York corners who have been burned repeatedly this year. When you can’t generate a pass rush, and you aren’t making plays in the secondary, that’s bad news against a team that can run out three very good wide receivers at a time. Add in the fact that tight end C.J. Uzomah has stepped up his play in 2021 and this Bengals offense is becoming tough to defend. Any chance the Jets have of stopping this offense is going to rely on their defensive line, as they do have a potentially winnable matchup in the trenches. Cincy’s offensive line has been better this year, but they’re still not great, and can certainly be beaten if they’re not on their game.
Call it a blessing in disguise for the Jets, that rookie quarterback Zach Wilson had a mild knee injury and will miss a month or so of time. While that might sound crazy, it’s probably the best way to keep the young player from a more serious injury, or losing confidence in the pocket. The team signed veteran Joe Flacco to fill in, however having just gotten to town, he’s not quite up to speed and ready to go. The team will look to Mike White, who relieved Wilson last week to start against what is becoming a pretty solid Cincinnati defense. White made a couple of big mistakes coming off the bench, but actually didn’t play terribly for the situation he was put in. He’ll have a week to prep here, which should help him, but he’ll be facing a pass rush from Trey Hendrickson and the Bengals defensive line, which certainly won’t help. The Bengals are big favorites for a reason, and if their front seven can dominate, they’ll win this game in a blowout. If the Jets can somehow run the football a bit, and get White good protection, then it could end up being an interesting game. With Tevin Coleman out, and Corey Davis not playing either, White is already at a bit of a disadvantage. Veteran presence can be big, and losing a weapon like Davis allows the Bengals defense to get creative with how they want to disguise certain schemes. Although it might be difficult for the Jets to move the ball, White needs to live by the adage of “a punt isn’t the worst thing in the world”. Too many three and outs can deflate a team, but not nearly as much as costly turnovers can.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jets are averaging 13 points per game in the 2021 season
– The total has gone under for the Bengals in 5 of their last 6 games
The Cincinnati Bengals are a quality football team, but still a little ways away from being a true contender. After their huge win a week ago, it’s certainly possible that a team that is growing could have a let down in a spot like this. If you’re watching this game, watch closely how the first couple of drives go. If it’s a dogfight, consider live betting the Jets as it’ll likely stay a close game for the duration. If the Bengals look strong early, they’re probably going to take them to the woodshed. Regardless of which direction things go, it’s tough to see how the New York Jets are going to be able to score points in this game behind Mike White and a pedestrian running and passing game. As long as the Bengals defense is remotely interested, they shouldn’t have too much trouble shutting things down.
BetCrushers Take: New York Jets – Team Total Under 16.5
Bengals 24, Jets 10
