PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3

SEASON RESULTS:
19-21

Week 5 Recap:

One of these weeks we will get our footing with our player prop plays, and we hope it’s soon. Week five results in another sub .500 weekend, which gives us the same amount of those as we had all last season. We’re still only 2 games under .500, but we have very lofty goals and expectations with our player props. The day started off terribly for us as we lost our early London wager on Matt Ryan’s under passing yardage as the Jets couldn’t stop Kyle Pitts, or anyone. Ryan had all day to throw and carved up a Jets secondary who couldn’t overcome the loss of their safeties. We grabbed our two wins in with Jameis Winston’s passing yardage as he benefited from a couple of long passes, including a hail mary and easily crossed his marker. Leonard Fournette was also a pretty easy cover as he was targeted often by Tom Brady, and continues to be a key piece of that Tampa offense. Our second loss was with Najee Harris as the Steelers got up in the football game, and Harris wasn’t integrated in the passing attack as he had been in previous weeks. We had what looked like a pretty sure thing with Devin Singletary to go 3-2 for the week as we simply needed the back to get to 29 yards rushing. Singletary had 23 yards in the third quarter of a game the Bills were up big in, but Zack Moss saw almost all of the action the rest of the way and Singletary missed by a few yards. The risk you take with a split back system. No excuses, just a couple of misses we’d like to have back in a disappointing Sunday.

Week 6 Preview:

After getting toasted by fading some quarterbacks, we’re taking a break from any QB plays this weekend. Additionally, we’re being optimistic across the board as our selections are all players we’re looking for big games from. We have two players for the Jacksonville Jaguars on our board this week, so obviously you may want to tread lightly. Don’t forget if you’re betting that game in any way to get those in before the early start. We’re at the point in the season where looking at backups is an area of opportunity, and there are a couple we’ve got listed below. Best of luck to you, and definitely us with our week number six prop bets.

Our Picks:

James Robinson – Over 74.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you’re looking for bright spots in the 2021 season for the Jacksonville Jaguars, there are only a couple beacons of light. One of those is running back James Robinson, who has picked up where he left off after his impressive rookie season. Robinson started the season slowly, but has had a nice streak over his last three games, averaging over 5.5 yards per tote running hard and more explosively. He has a very favorable matchup in London against the Miami Dolphins, who currently rank 24th in run defense. The Dolphins are also thin at corner with Xavien Howard ruled out and Byron Jones banged up. That should keep some safety help deep allowing for some extra room to run the football. Assuming the Jaguars don’t get blown out with just a field goal spread, the run should be a factor for four quarters. We’re expecting a 100 yard game from James Robinson.

Laviska Shenault- Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Speaking of thin at the cornerback position for Miami, we’ll assume Trevor Lawrence can also take advantage of this. Laviska Shenault has been an up and down, more down in truthfulness, as we’ve gone through the first third of the season. Shenault did have his best game of the season in their nationally televised game, so he should be ready to go against Miami Sunday morning. His yardage number seems a little low though, as his lowest total in a game is 48 yards, with the exception of a -2 dud in week number two. Shenault has the speed to make big plays, even if he doesn’t bring in a lot of receptions. We saw this a week ago against Tennessee when he only grabbed one pass, but it went for 58 yards. With D.J, Chark not in the lineup, Shenault should get enough targets against a struggling Dolphins defense to get over this yardage total.

Austin Ekeler – Over 107.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

Taking a look at Austin Ekeler’s total yardage total of 107.5, it seems to fall right about where his season average is, at least starting in week two. On paper, a road matchup with the historically good Baltimore Ravens defense doesn’t seem like am ideal spot to lock Ekeler in for an over. This isn’t the same Ravens defense we’re accustomed to watching however, as the group has had issues both stopping the run and the pass at different times during the season. We’ve watched them have trouble with receiving backs, including Jonathan Taylor breaking a long one a week ago. Ekeler will be a focal point of the Chargers offense in a game that could see a lot of wide open play and scoring. We’re not letting the high number, and traditionally tough defense scare us away from seeing a big day from the proclaimed pound for pound best running back in the game.

Darrell Henderson – Over 74.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The loss of Cam Akers before the season seemed as though it might cause a void in the teams ability to run the football. Fortunately, the very underrated Darrell Henderson has stepped in and provided more than adequate rushing to balance out the offense for the Rams. Sunday he travels to New York to take on the Giants in a game that has Los Angeles as heavy favorites, despite the return of Daniel Jones. New York is 27th in the league in run defense and since losing Blake Martinez things have gone from bad to worse. Henderson has averaged around 15 carries per game, and this seems like a day where he could eclipse the 20 carry mark, if the Rams can build up a lead. As long as Sony Michel doesn’t snipe too many rushing attempts away, getting over 74.5 yards seems very do-able.

Kareem Hunt – Over 84.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If the Chargers/Ravens is not the game of the week, it would probably have to be the Cardinals and Browns from Cleveland. Both teams enter the contest down some key players, and the next man up that would see to have the biggest upside is running back Kareem Hunt. Hunt ranks near the top of the league in broken tackles and yards after contact, and playing behind a stout offensive line makes that a really enticing play. The Cardinals enter the game allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry to opposing runners, which is not great when playing a team like Cleveland. The Browns will try to spell Hunt throughout the game, and when they’ve been in this situation, he often gets a breather on third downs, his normal bread and butter. As long as the Browns can stay close on the scoreboard, Hunt will see plenty of action. He’s more than capable of being a 100 yard rusher, particularly against a defense that has been soft versus the run.

Hunter Henry – Over 34.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

One of the more popular plays this weekend is Patriots tight end Hunter Henry in his matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Originally his catch total was 3.5, however it is now heavily juiced, so we’re rolling with his yardage total over 34.5. It’s pretty safe to assume the Cowboys are going to put some points up in this contest, which means New England is going to have to throw the football to keep up, or play from behind to catch up. Henry has emerged as the tight end number one on NE, outperforming fellow free agent signee Johnnu Smith. The Cowboys have been one of the worst teams in the league at stopping tight ends, so Henry figures to get plenty of action in the passing game. It may take 4 or 5 catches for him to get there, but we’re expecting a 5 for 45 type of stat line for Henry in this game.

Terry McLaurin – Over 5.5 Receptions (-125)

Washington continues to have one of the league’s quietest elite players with wide receiver Terry McLaurin. The young wideout almost never drops passes, and makes big plays when given the opportunities. He should have plenty of opportunities when his team faces the Kansas City Chiefs at home on Sunday. The Chiefs are likely to put up a lot of points in this game, which means Washington will need to throw the football a lot. That’s a good thing when facing a team that has been carved up as repeatedly as the Chiefs have on defense. They’ll be missing two key pieces of their defense again, as DT Chris Jones and CB Charvarius Ward will both miss their second straight game. The absence of those two defenders should only help McLaurin find the time and space to get open across the field. Washington will also be missing tight end Logan Thomas, which could mean a couple of extra throws headed McLaurin’s way. Both the game script, and the talent advantage should lead to a productive day for McLaurin Sunday.

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