ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Cleveland Browns +125
Pittsburgh Steelers +195
Baltmore Ravens +275
Cincinnati Bengals +1600
The AFC North has been one of the more consistent divisions over the past decade or so. The Steelers and Ravens would see who could punch each other harder for the division title with the Bengals occasionally mixing things up, and the Browns were on the draft clock before the season was half over. Enter 2019. Cleveland is not only the favorite to win the division but one of the most anticipated teams in the league to watch play. It will be interesting to see how the Browns handle being the favorite, as well as how the other three teams in the division respond. These teams figure to win a fair amount of games but their playoff chances may ride on how they stack up against each other.
Cincinnati Bengals
2018 Record – 6-10
2018 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
The Cincinnati Bengals are slated to finish last in the AFC North division but that doesn’t mean that they are a terrible football team. This team has a new coach, a new scheme and some existing talent to guide it during a transition year. It’s unlikely to think this team will be able to leapfrog the others in the division, but they could very well play the role of spoiler and surprise some teams along the way. The 2019 campaign is already off to a rocky start as the Bengals first round draft pick at #11 Jonah Williams will miss his entire rookie season after undergoing surgery to repair his shoulder. The Bengals were counting on Williams to help shore up an offensive line that struggled mightily at times. In the absence of Williams it’s not unreasonable to think this O-line could struggle again.
But let’s focus on the positive for a minute here. This team has a potential dynamite trio at wide receiver with perennial Pro-Bowler A.J. Green leading the way for Tyler Boyd and speedster John Ross. While Green is hungry to prove he’s still elite after an injury-riddled season, it opened up the door for the team to see just how good Tyler Boyd can be. John Ross needs to also stay healthy and prove that he was worthy of the high draft selection two years ago. Speaking of not staying healthy, Tyler Eifert will give it another go at the tight end position looking to regain the form that made him a top TE prospect just four seasons ago. This team is strong at the RB position with workhorse Joe Mixon potentially as a monster and pass-catching Giovani Bernard backing him up.
One position we haven’t delved into yet is that of quarterback. New coaches usually prefer to build around “their guy” at the QB position. At the moment Andy Dalton is that guy and really the only option the team has. Dalton has won some games and put up some decent statistics over the years, but he can’t seem to ever take that next step to elite status and proven winner. This is most likely his one opportunity to prove to new head coach Zac Taylor that he can lead this team and win.
How many games the Bengals can compete in and win in 2019 will probably come down to how well their defense can hold up. Cincinnati had to move on from Vontaze Burfict, their volatile and aggressive leader on defense. Injuries and ineffective play lead the Bengals to part ways with Burfict, and although that was a necessary move , it leaves a void in the tenacity that this group has had. Tenacity and aggression are two important traits for a defense to have when you’re playing in this division. This defense still has some top level talent in Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, but they’re both showing some signs of slowing down and not enough to carry the team. Can anyone else in this group step up or is this defense destined to be in the bottom third in the league?
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 27th (.473)
Team Win Total Odds – 6 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-10
The Bengals definitely look like another 6-10 season is upon them. They may actually be a little bit better assuming they can stay healthy, but as we mentioned so are the former divisional doormats in Cleveland which will probably result in at least one less win. There is no such thing as a consolation prize in the NFL, but if there were, it could be that this would be one of the best 6-10 times we’ve seen.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals / Over
Expect the Bengals to be competitive in most of their games, but whether or not they’ll be covering spreads may be hard to pinpoint. If this offensive line can be even average this team should score a ton of points this year. Shootouts seem as though they’ll be commonplace for the Bengals in 2019 so look to book the team over and or the game over early and often with this group.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Joe Mixon (RB), A.J. Green (WR), Tyler Boyd (WR)
Andy Dalton can absolutely be a backup for you in your league or potentially a bargain play in daily fantasy. But we’ve got our eyes on the Bengals big three with Mixon being a solid yardage grinder and Green and Boyd looking as though they could both be 1,000 yard receivers this season. Don’t be afraid to play these guys even if the Bengals aren’t putting check marks in the win column.
Cleveland Browns
2018 Record – 7-8-1
2018 Record Against the Spread – 10-6
Baker Mayfield took the NFL by storm in his rookie campaign and it was clear early on that the Browns may have finally done something right in the draft. Move ahead to the next offseason and the team appears to have gone back-to-back with their personnel decisions. The depth chart on this team looks really good. But depth charts don’t win football games, individual performances and teams do. It’s historically difficult to even comprehend the Cleveland Browns winning this division or even being competitive in it for that matter. But here we are looking at the upcoming season and this team really should be able to accomplish that goal.
Assuming Mayfield does not regress in his second season he will most likely lead a team that can score in a variety of different ways. Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson, Jr. are nice compliments at the running back position and they may add Kareem Hunt into the mix later in the season. The move to land Odell Beckham, Jr. to partner with his old buddy Jarvis Landry looks as though it could be the difference in this team being average and being great. And don’t sleep on one of the more gifted tight ends in the league in David Njoku. The offensive line may not be dominant, but they appear to have just enough ability there to be able to let the playmakers make plays.
While the offensive moves garnered most of the attention, a critical move was made to bring Olivier Vernon over to rush opposite of Myles Garrett. Leaving either of these guys blocked one-on-one is a recipe for disaster so offenses will need to figure out how to scheme that up right off the bat. The secondary is not spectacular but is also not terrible. If that defensive line can get pressure they should be able to hold up just fine. If there is a weakness on this team it would appear to be at the linebacker position. For a team that is suddenly laden with talent the linebacking corp leaves a lot to be desired. The Browns will be one of the more interesting and exciting teams to watch but perhaps the biggest question is not around their talent, but around their mental state. This team isn’t going to surprise anyone and will actually receive the opponents best shot each week. The other teams in the division won’t back down from them either so it’s by no means a done deal that this team will cruise to success.
2019 Strength of Schedule – 23rd (.484)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
With what appears to be a soft schedule outside of the division and on paper this looks like a team that can win 10 or 11 games. Maybe it’s decades of history and watching this team implode but we need to see more before we completely jump on the bandwagon. Let’s also remember that this division will most likely be very competitive.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Browns were one of the better teams against the spread in 2018 as they outperformed perception of how bad they were. Call it a gut feeling, but it wouldn’t be surprising even if the Browns are winning more games if they actually had a poor record ATS this year. Cleveland’s value is at an all-time high and we’re not completely sure just how good they will be yet. There will likely be some value in betting against them ATS.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Nick Chubb (RB), David Njoku (TE)
Baker Mayfield and these receivers will be hot names and rightly so during the fantasy season. With the weapons on the outside Nick Chubb should find some nice running room to build on his nice rookie start. At the tight end position he won’t put up Kelce and Ertz type numbers, but if you don’t land one of the elite at the position you may want to take a shot with Njoku. He should also see some soft zone looks and is as physically gifted as anyone in the league at the position.
Baltimore Ravens
2018 Record – 10-6
2018 Record Against the Spread – 8-8
The team that has had the biggest and most recognizable identity over the past 20 years is undeniably the Baltimore Ravens. Retired general manager Ozzie Newsome found a way to build a team that was known for it’s tough defense year in and year out. When you think of defense in the National Football League you think of the Baltimore Ravens. This year’s team may have some similarities to the old Raven’s squads but it is sure to have some differences as well.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson will take the helm as the undisputed new leader of the offense after running them to the division title in relief of long-time Raven staple QB Joe Flacco. The term “running” is appropriate as just like the traditional Raven teams this group will be a run first heavy team with Jackson leading the way and the signing of Mark Ingram from the Saints in free agency. The Ravens proved a year ago that they could run the ball even when the other team knew it was coming and should be able to continue that trend. Where this team could find itself in trouble is getting into a situation where they have to throw the ball. Jackson struggled in obvious passing situations and the wide receiver group may be the weakest in the league. Look for the depth at tight end to help but points could be tough to come by in certain matchups.
We mentioned the identity and the potential differences in the new Ravens and you need look no further than the Ravens defense. Gone is long-time leader Terrell Suggs and pro-bowler C.J. Mosley at the edge and linebacker positions, respectively. When you look at the front seven of this team it is lacking the strength, toughness and talent that this team built it’s reputation on. In a league that’s become offensively driven it’s fine to take a new approach but the problem is the offense is stuck in the run and play good defensive mode. The formula just doesn’t seem to add up. On the plus side for the Ravens they have one of the best secondary groups in the AFC. The addition of Earl Thomas to a pair of quality starting corners and the depth they have make this unit as good as you’ll find. If this team can stop the run the secondary should be able to hold up, but we’ll need to wait and see how the big men play up front.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 19th (.496)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
It feels wrong to go against John Harbaugh and the Ravens as every year they impressively just seem to find a way to get things done. But something is different about this team and their overall approach doesn’t seem to fit with the way this team is shaping up. Jackson presents a challenge to defensive coordinators but he also can be a liability in certain matchups. Don’t be surprised if the Ravens find themselves outside looking in at playoff time.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
With the question marks on defense we may wait a couple of weeks to see how this team is playing but this team has been one of the best teams to tease points with over the past few years. Giving this group an extra 6 points was almost like taking candy from a baby as they were almost never blown out.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Mark Ingram (RB), Hayden Hurst (TE)
Ingram will be an early pick in most drafts and he should be. He will see the ball early and often and it’s tough to imagine him not pushing his way towards a ton of yards on the ground in this offense. If you want a (very) deep sleeper pick take a closer peak at TE Hayden Hurst. Their former first round pick missed almost all of last season but in this offense could see a good percentage of the small amount of passes thrown in his direction.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 Record – 9-6-1
2018 Record Against the Spread – 8-7-1
Finishing 9-6-1 wouldn’t normally be considered a bad season unless you’re the Pittsburgh Steelers and you missed the playoffs in a year when you had no business missing the playoffs. This team was a mess last year as the combination of sloppy play and off-field distractions turned what could have been a deep playoff run into a total disappointment. This year’s group may look a little less talented with the mega-visible departures of superstars Antonio Brown to the Raiders and Le’Veon Bell to the Jets, but that shouldn’t necessarily spell doom for the black and yellow. In a game that is the ultimate definition of a team sport there can be a such thing as addition by subtraction. It was clear that Mike Tomlin had lost some control of the locker room and the distractions took too much of a toll on the team.
Look for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to play looser this season and in a move that probably should have happened anyways, the run game to be more prominent. The Steelers barely skipped a beat with James Conner and Jaylen Samuels in the lineup which goes to show the strength of the offense all starts up front with the big guys. The big guys need to stay healthy as depth is an issue there but if they do they will be able to open some nice running lanes and give Big Ben the time he needs to throw. This is certainly the thinnest the Steeler’s wide receiving corp has been in recent years but if Juju Smith-Schuster can be the true number one wideout that he’s shown it won’t be a huge problem. Vance McDonald is someone you can expect to see a lot of targets as well in the passing game.
We’re not going to talk about the Steeler’s defense in terms of a nickname like the “Steel Curtain” but this defense should be good. If they don’t finish as a top 10 or potentially top 5 defense it would be considered serious underachieving. This group has talent at all three levels and they’re pretty deep too. First round pick Devin Bush is looking like a scheduled starter at inside linebacker but the rest of the unit is experienced and they have a lot of starts together providing rare continuity in this age’s NFL. Pittsburgh may very well go back to winning games 17-13 rather than 31-28 by running the football and playing good defense.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 19th (.496)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
Looking closely at the schedule it shapes up pretty well for the Steelers. They won 9 games and tied 1 a year ago in what was basically a terrible season for them. Don’t let the departures of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell scare you away from this group. This team could very easily claim the AFC North if they’re able to put their usual voodoo beatdown on rival Cleveland.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Point Totals / Under
In case you didn’t read the entire summary you can expect this team to run the ball and play good defense. That adds up to fewer points than what this team had been scoring and allowing in previous years. The unders could be very much in play for this group.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Vance McDonald (TE), Steelers (DST)
Vance McDonald was one of the highest targeted tight ends in the league last year and he shared time at the position. Combine that with the departure of A.B. and he should see a lot of balls thrown his way again this year. This Steeler defense will be solid against the run and can get after the quarterback. Sacks, turnovers and low points allowed are all likely from this group. If you like grabbing defenses early or want to play the matchups in daily games, you’ll want to use them.
