Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 0-0
Another plus money season is now in the rear view mirror and just like everyone else, The BetCrushers begin the 2021 NFL season with a 0-0 record and aiming for another successful year. If you’ve followed us in the past, you know that we tend to be selective early in the season, until we have a substantial sample size with some of the more unknowns in the league. We have identified some things over the offseason that we’re excited about that will hopefully allow our early season plays to prosper. Our week one plays were crafted with our normal formula of studying trends, numbers and a lot of film. To anyone out there who’s excited to be betting on week one of the NFL, remember, it’s a marathon and not a sprint. Have fun, be responsible, and let’s make some money!
Week 1 Picks:
Maybe we’re becoming more responsible in our old age, but the excitement of opening weekend is translating to a small slate of bets to start the season. There are about 9 potential bets that we have “leans” on, but we’re just not confident playing and sharing them this early in the season. I mean, how good can you really feel about taking the Houston Texans +3? If you’re a new BetCrushers audience, you probably know that we generally have 4-6 plays on an average NFL weekend. There’s no doubt there’ll be spots to pick this year that will feature a bevy of plays.
New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers
vs. 
New York Jets (0-0) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Sunday September 12th
1:00pm
CBS
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Carolina Panthers -4 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Who would have guessed that our first true posted bet of the season would feature the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers? Two teams who have big aspirations of improving face off, with the main headline focused on the quarterback position. Former face of the franchise Sam Darnold is now guiding the Panthers, while new face of the franchise Zach Wilson makes his NFL debut. Both teams should be improved, but for both, the most important position on the field is the biggest question mark.
On paper, the New York Jets offense certainly doesn’t look like anything to write home about. Outside of tackle Mekhi Becton, the rest of the bunch is a weird mixture of mediocre players surrounding their new young quarterback. You can’t put a lot of stock into the preseason, yet there is something quietly exciting about how the team played together. After a rough training camp, Zach Wilson looked really good in his preseason action, as did the offense as a whole. Things may move a little faster on Sunday when he faces a very underrated Carolina defense. The Panthers defensive line, and secondary in particular, are emerging and very talented. The could spell trouble for Wilson and the Jets, except they actually have a few small matchup advantages. First, Tevin Coleman is motivated and ready to be the lead back he’s always felt he can be. If the Jets offensive line can at least play decently against that Panthers front, he should have some success. The other spot that will be key is slot target Jamison Crowder, working over the middle of the field. The Panthers are minus suspended A.J. Bouye at the corner position, meaning Crowder could really use his quickness to keep the chains moving.
If you’re interested in checking out how Zach Wilson does, you may be just as interested to see how Sam Darnold fairs in his first start with the Panthers. This is Darnold’s shot to show the world that he isn’t a bust, and all that he really needed was a change of scenery and the support of an organization and talent around him. He certainly has both as the Panthers are a team on the rise, that really needs a leader to steer the ship in the right direction. Before we talk about his greatest weapon, let’s take a quick glance at a big matchup advantage he has on Sunday. His former target with the Jets Robby Anderson, and the talented D.J. Moore will be lined up against what is the biggest weakness of the Jets defense, the cornerback position. The bigger problem is because of what we mentioned was Darnold’s biggest weapon, they are unable to really roll a lot of safety help or coverage towards the speedy receivers. Christian McCaffrey is back, fresh and ready to pick up where he left off as the most complete running back in the league. The Jets have some players on the defensive line, however what makes McCaffrey so special is that if the running game is bottled up, he can be a receiving threat. In his short career he has started seasons pretty quickly, and it won’t be surprising for him to get out of the gate fast again.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 9 games played by the Panthers in September
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 season openers for the Jets
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 Jets games vs. the NFC
Although everyone knows the public loves to hammer overs, it’s a little surprising that the public money on this particular game has come in on the over. We booked this early, but are still playing the over total at 45 as we’re actually expecting a bit of scoring. Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson will be eager to show the Jets how great things are in Carolina, and Christian McCaffrey should have the opportunity to explode out of the gate. The big question will whether or not the Jets offense can get things done against an improving Carolina defense on the road with a rookie quarterback? You may consider the Panthers team total if you’re nervous about the Jets offense. We’re thinking Zach Wilson will do a solid job making some plays, and in a game that could have some turnovers, the over could be aided. The spread seems about right on, but we’re thinking this game total will push 50 when it’s all said and done.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 45
Panthers 26, Jets 22
Teaser Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) vs. Detroit Lions (0-0)
Sunday September 12th
1:00pm
FOX
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
San Francisco 49ers -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Chicago Bears (0-0) vs. Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
Sunday September 12th
8:20pm
NBC
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: 49ers -2.5 and Rams -2
Yes, we are completely aware this is one of the squarest teaser or parlay bets in recent memory. The highest selected teams in the Circa Survivor contest are the Rams and the 49ers, which should scare you at least a little bit if you’re on them. Despite the public backing of this play, we simply have to stick with our system and go with this teaser. The numbers and matchups line up perfectly. The 49ers and the Rams are going to be fighting for the NFC West crown, and the Lions and Bears are going to be fighting to stay out of the cellar in the NFC North. We booked this when San Francisco was a -7.5 favorite, however we’re still backing it at the spread and release of this article.
The San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions struggled to poor records behind a lot of injuries during the 2020 season. Each team has a new life, with San Fran expecting a big rebound, and the Lions still rebuilding. The Lions defense should be improved after a horrendous year, but they still have to deal with the rugged 49ers offensive line. Raheem Mostert is in line for a really big game, and honestly, we’ll see some new talent in the San Francisco backfield that may shine as well. We’ll see how creative their offense gets in a game that might be a little more “vanilla” for them after not a lot of work in the preseason. Jimmy Garoppolo has a lot to prove as the starter at quarterback, especially with Trey Lance possibly taking some snaps of his own. With diverse weapons like Deebo Samuel and second year wideout Brandon Aiyuk, the rebuilt Lions defense has it’s work cut out for itself. Flipping sides, this could be the first in a long line of struggles for the Detroit Lions offense. Jared Goff has an improving offensive line in front of him, but he will still be under durress against the aggressive and talented 49ers defense. Goff is the type of player that needs everything around him to be sound in order to be successful. He’s fighting a bit of an uphill battle with coaching, and a lack of weapons in the passing game. Outside of tight end T.J. Hockenson, it’s really difficult to even envision where the passing offense could come from? Even Hockenson may struggle in this particular game as the Niners should be able to keep him bracketed in. Overall, this game seems like it could be a blowout.
Bringing in the talented and overlooked Matthew Stafford at quarterback has expectations sky high in LA. The Rams are going to need to lean on Stafford right away in week one against an always tough Chicago Bears defense. The injury to Cam Akers puts a little more uncertainty in the running game, which is exactly how you want to attack the Bears. The veteran offensive line, led by left tackle Andrew Whitworth, will have their hands full all game long protecting their new signal caller and trying to establish that rushing attack. That’s the obvious key to watch in this game. One player not to sleep on, is wide receiver Desean Jackson, who loves the spotlight. He could fill the role we saw on Thursday Night of Antonio Brown with a lot of attention on Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. For the Bears, we’ll see how long they can stick to their plan with QB Andy Dalton leading the charge. Much like Jared Goff, Dalton can be a good player when things are lined up well for him. Unfortunately for the Red Rifle, they don’t line up at all against a tough Rams defense. The BetCrushers expect a little regression from the Rams defense this season as the line and secondary are a little thinner. With that being said, having Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey is always going to make them a solid and tough to attack unit. The Bears offensive line is one of the worst groups in the league, and that means Dalton is going to be under a lot of pressure. Can you say turnovers and three and outs? This game does seem like it could be a little bit of a slugfest.
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games vs. the Lions
– The 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Lions
– The Lions are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games
– The Lions are 1-11 straight up in their last 12 home games
– The Bears are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games vs. an NFC opponent
– The Bears are 3-8 straight up in their last 11 games
– The Rams are 11-4 straight up in their last 15 games vs. an NFC opponent
– The Rams are 3-1 ATS in week 1 under Sean McVay
Let’s just put it all out there, we’re taking the two better teams and getting them under the key number of three. Is it our favorite bet of all time? Absolutely not. The Bears actually feel like the right team ATS, but no chance we’d back that offense against the Rams defense. Assuming the Niners can get things done on their end, we’re taking Stafford and his offensive line over Dalton as his as the deciding factor.
BetCrushers Take: Tease 49ers -2.5 and Rams -2
49ers 31, Lions 20 / Rams 24, Bears 20
Teaser Bet
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Thursday September 9th
8:20pm
NBC
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Green Bay Packers -6 (Even)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Sunday September 12th
1:00pm
FOX
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Buccaneers -1.5 and Eagles +9.5
The BetCrushers first multiple teaser bet weekend occurs in week number one as we’re teasing down a favorite, and up a live dog. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers open their title defense and the NFL season with a Thursday Night showdown with the Dallas Cowboys. In the second leg, we’re keying in an what could be an exciting week one matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.
The Dallas Cowboys enter the season with very high expectations, coming off of a very deflating season that saw it’s leader lost for the year early on. Dak Prescott has really been unable to practice much after not only rehabilitating his ankle, but also a more recent shoulder injury. Prescott says he’s ready to go, and the Cowboys are going to need a healthy Dak at quarterback if they have any hope of making the postseason. The quarterback position isn’t the only one that was hobbled as the Cowboys vaunted offensive line was also ravaged by injuries. The team should have their two stalwart tackles back as Tyron Smith and La’el Collins are both set to take the field. Unfortunately, the Cowboys will be without starting Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin, who will miss the opener after testing positive for COVID-19 on Saturday. (Yes, it appears handicappers are absolutely going to need to be nimble and aware of what’s going on with the testing protocols before each game). The Boys’ are confident that Connor McGovern can step in, and they’re going to need him to against the fierce Tampa Bay defense. The front seven of Tampa is arguably the best in the league as they can stuff the run with the best of them, and get after the passer. All you need to have watched is Super Bowl LV to see what kind of a defense the Buccaneers can put out there as they absolutely manhandled the Kansas City Chiefs. Without Zack Martin on the interior, and with a generally stout TB run defense, don’t expect to see a lot in the running game from Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke is due for a nice rebound season, but that’ll have to wait until he has a little better matchup. The Cowboys receiving trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb are going to need to get open and give Dak Prescott quick throws that allow them to make plays with to offset the aggressive Tampa defense. Even though the Bucs’ linebackers are elite, don’t be shocked if Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin see a lot of targets over the middle at the tight end position. Assuming Tyron Smith and La’el Collins can handle business on the outside, the matchup to watch will really be on the interior of the line. The proverbial “battle in the trenches”.
What is left to say about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that wasn’t put on display during their playoff run a year ago? The team is not only stacked with talent, but has depth at the skill positions, and has the ability to play physical football or air it out. The ageless Tom Brady has really shown zero sign of physical decay, although we all know it can happen quickly once it starts to go. We’re going to give the G.O.A.T. the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be ready for 2021 and in this case the Cowboys defense. Speaking of the Cowboys defense, this unit was really awful a season ago at every level. The team drafted Micah Parsons to play strong side linebacker, and early indicators are showing that he could be even better than advertised. He’ll have his work cut out for him in his debut, battling not only Brady, but a complex offensive scheme over the middle of the field. The Cowboys will need their edge rush tandem of Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory to really heat up the pressure to give their revamped secondary some help. Folks in Dallas believe Trevon Diggs can be a star, but we have to imagine that Bruce Arians likes his chances of lining up his own WR trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown against the Cowboys corners and safeties. Throughout his career, when Brady has struggled, it’s been due to heavy pressure up the middle and in his face and around his legs. That’s a tall task for the interior of the Cowboys defense which is largely unproven.
In the second game, we’re going to a matchup of teams who have each had a nice run over the last decade, and are hopeful they can return to relevance in a crowded NFC picture. The Eagles and new head coach Nick Sirianni, travel to Atlanta to take on Matt Ryan and new head coach Arthur Smith, in what could end up being one of the more exciting games of the day.
The Philadelphia Eagles have let the BetCrushers down on more than one occasion over the last few seasons. We’re not giving up on them this season though as this team really has a pretty solid matchup with the Falcons. Things start at the quarterback position, where Jalen Hurts is almost a forgotten man around the league, despite providing a spark for the team a season ago. Hurts was able to overcome horrendous offensive line play with his mobility and athleticism, something we should see from the young QB against the Falcons pass rush. Perhaps the best thing for Hurts, is the fact that his offensive line is a lot stronger in week one of this season, than what he was working with a year ago. In recent years the Falcons have been one of the biggest offenders of giving up big plays, and the Eagles offense is really built around the ability to generate those kind of plays with Hurts and running back Miles Sanders. The team added speedy playmaker Devonta Smith and fans are excited to see what he can do against a very average secondary in Atlanta. A healthy Zach Ertz paired with Dallas Goedert also gives the Eagles some potential matchup advantages. As long as Hurts doesn’t get too reckless and the Eagles can control their turnovers, their offense should be able to get some points on the board.
It’s a new day in Atlanta as the team goes to battle without longtime star Julio Jones as their main weapon. Calvin Ridley is a top level receiver, so the cupboard is far from bare at the position, but Ridley will likely draw some double-teams and or Darius Slay on the corner. Ridley is too good to be completely held down, and he’ll see a lot of targets, but this is not one of his better matchups of the season. Quarterback Matt Ryan will potentially force the ball Ridley’s way, which could result in some takeaways if he’s too insistent on feeding him. It would be helpful for the team if they could generate a consistent running game, something they have struggled to do over the past two seasons. Mike Davis gets his shot as lead man and he’ll take aim at one of the league’s better run defenses. The defensive line for Philly is getting a little long in the tooth, however it can still be a very good group, led of course by Fletcher Cox in the middle. Davis could really struggle in this game, at least as a runner. This will be a formula for the season, where the Falcons need a complimentary weapon to pair with Ridley in order to achieve success. The obvious answer seems to point to rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, who has physical tools almost never seen at the position. With Pitts it seems inevitable that he’ll eventually be a monster, how quickly can he pick up the game though? The other player to really watch is wide receiver Russell Gage, who will be slated to become the wide receiver number two opposite Ridley. Gage’s effectiveness versus the Eagles secondary could honestly be one of the biggest determiners in the outcome of the game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 7-2 vs. the Falcons during Matt Ryan’s tenure
– The Falcons are 2-6 straight up in their last 8 home games
– The Falcons finished the 2020 season on a 5 game losing streak
– The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 season openers
Having squeezed out the first leg of our teaser we posted on Tuesday (hopefully you did too), we need the Eagles to simply not get blown out. It’ll be a tall task for them to go on the road and pull of the small upset, however it doesn’t seem like we’re asking a lot for them to just be competitive. This game has both a spread, and a feel that seems like it’ll be a close contest, and down to the wire. If that indeed is the case, we’ll feel really good about holding the second leg ticket over over the touchdown mark. #FlyEaglesFly!
