After a two-day hiatus from handicapping, betting, and writing about baseball, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-26-2021 is back. The bar is low for my excuses to take occasional days off during the second half of the season – and this time it was a quick trip out of town without taking the damn laptop. Now we’re faced with a typical short Monday slate containing one double header that is an insta-pass for me. It’s Sunday night and Monday’s odds are out, so I might as well fire up an early solo shot to get the week started.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (+100)
There was a passing of the torch in the AL Central this weekend. The White Sox may have a healthy cushion with the division lead, but the Kansas City Royals are rattling off wins with a five-game streak. KC broke the Tigers’ seven-game win streak on Friday then proceeded to nail down the sweep yesterday. Chicago’s hold on the division wavered slightly after dropping their weekend season at the Brewers, though this club is always a threat to dominate.
When it comes to offensive production, Kansas City deserves a little love here lately – even if they’ve faced off against the out-of-contention Tigers and Orioles in their last two series. Going into Sunday’s action, the Royals had the lowest soft contact rate and second-highest hard contact rate in the majors that week while sending 80% of contact as line drives or fly balls. On the contrary, the White Sox have the highest ground ball rate and a bottom-five worst soft contact rate in that same seven-day period.
Even though that comes with a grain of salt – the White Sox faced tougher pitching last week – it is part of why I see these offenses being closer than they exist in a vacuum. Chicago has a tough lineup in nearly all scenarios but gets a couple minor ticks down for current form and performance away from home. You have to respect them breaking out the hit parade early against Brandon Woodruff on Sunday Night Baseball though. As for Kansas City, this team has produced 25% better since the All-Star Break and gets a 20% bump up at Kauffman Stadium.
Situational Offensive Factors
- CWS: 104.1
- KC: 102.9
D. Keuchel (L) vs. M. Minor (L)
No reason to beat around the bush – Mike Minor is why I have a hard time backing the home team on the money line. I get the fact that nearly every metric points to him being a suitable starting pitcher at the age of 33. His 4.22 ERA/4.39 xFIP, 38.2% ground ball rate, 37.0% hard hit rate, and 3.18 K/BB ratio are all respectable figures. But him giving up 4+ runs in five of his last seven outings is a significant concern against this White Sox offense that showed signs of life in the Sunday night game. Plus Chicago gets a major reinforcement as Eloy Jimenez is slated to make his season debut after hitting .289 in his rehab assignment.
Dallas Keuchel fills a similar role for Chicago as Mike Minor does for KC. He is a stable veteran presence in a rotation of young arms, though the main difference is that Keuchel does not serve as the staff ace. Their similarities extend to Dallas’ 4.72 FIP/4.40 xFIP and 38.2% hard hit rate. As a contact pitcher, the 33-year-old lefty relies heavily on generating ground balls (55.3%) with a tough changeup in light of low strikeout (14.6%) and walk (7.5%) rates. Keuchel will make his first start against Kansas City this season after hitting a rough patch against AL Central opponents. In those seven divisional starts, he gave up 3+ runs in five of them – though last week’s outing at Minnesota was a solid 2-run, 5-inning effort.
Effects of the Grind
Kansas City’s bullpen left their team hanging plenty of times this season but has been much more stout since the break (3.04 FIP). Expect solid middle relievers Wade Davis, Domingo Tapia, and Josh Staumont to be ready for the call and co-closer Scott Barlow in line to nail down a close game late after two days of rest. I wouldn’t say that Chicago’s relief unit is overworked either. And as of Sunday evening before concluding the Milwaukee series, Tony La Russa held back plenty of back end arms like Liam Hendriks for this grindy road trip. The downside is that this group has been sketchy since the break with close to a 6.00 FIP during this stretch.
That leads into another slight advantage that the Royals should have tonight. Both teams had Thursday off after their mid-week series ended. But Kansas City also had Monday off to buffer their quick road trip up to Milwaukee. They sapped the Brewers of their momentum after Milwaukee swept divisional contender Cincinnati then they came home and demoralized the Tigers. In contrast, Chicago was probably lucky to fully recover from seven games in six days after the All-Star Break before slipping to Milwaukee. This is a very minor point to the handicap, but something that I think favors the club who settled in at home nicely this weekend.
WAGER: Royals First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Runs +105 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Royals Full Game Over 4.5 Runs -105 (1/2 unit)
Dallas Keuchel has the advantage of experience over the Royals’ recent starting pitching opponents Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, as well as a proven talent edge over Wily Peralta. But the fact that Kansas City just smacked these guys for 5, 4, and 5 runs, respectively, ties in well with Kuechel’s potential susceptibility against division foes. So I’m splitting up my team total position between first 5 innings and full game because I can’t make up my damn mind. Dallas could get us there quickly, but then again, I don’t want to miss out on the opportunity to benefit from the Chicago bullpen’s subpar form.
NOTE: I published this article Sunday night while the Whit Merrifield trade rumors were circling. His absence in Monday’s lineup was considered in the handicap.
Around the Horn
Visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
