Look, it’s not like I didn’t try to tell the Giants that Patrick Wisdom was the only Cub who has been doing anything at the plate recently. I made that point twice this in the weekend’s handicaps, and twice the NL Player of the Week tried to singlehandedly take down my San Francisco positions. He fell short on Saturday but made Johnny Cueto pay on Sunday. Like my wife said to me during that game, you can only do so much on this side of the TV screen. Truth. After passing on a very short Monday slate, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-8-2021 is back and ready to roll! (Plus, the White Sox face off against the Blue Jays and southpaw Robbie Ray tonight – should be a good one, if you know what I mean…)
2021 Featured Handicap Results
New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles (+100)
Let’s go ahead and state the obvious – the Baltimore Orioles have the hottest offense in the majors after unloading 38 runs in their last five games. Plus they capped off their series victory Sunday afternoon in style with an 18-5 beatdown of the Indians. This team that had recently lost 14 straight games ripped off four wins in the last five games since that streak ended. Sure, Sunday’s 18-run blowout undoubtedly skews the numbers – but all told, the O’s slashed .311/.364/.526 with a league-best 147 wRC+ last week.
They have a tough task against a Mets team that has won eight of their last eleven games, including a split of last weekend’s four-game series at San Diego. Their offense is trending in the right direction, due in part to the return of Pete Alonso from the IL. His power numbers aren’t there but Pete has hit safely in six of seven games since returning. Their run has been fueled primarily by an overachieving pitching staff. New York’s stout bullpen is deep and nearly all of their rotation has been quite effective in recent weeks.
D. Peterson (L) vs. B. Zimmermann (L)
Southpaw David Peterson was my primary target against Arizona last week – a team that exploded for 5 runs in the first inning against him. And since that turned out so well, let’s flash back to that June 2nd handicap instead of me rewriting the whole thing. I do have a job to get to this morning, after all…
Even if I grade David Peterson as a low-4.00s FIP starter, there are several indicators that push me toward the higher end of his spectrum this afternoon. First of all, Peterson struggled mightily when they met on May 7th and was lifted in the 2nd inning after giving up 3 hits and 3 walks. I don’t expect that quick of a meltdown today though. Second, the lefty has seen his hard hit rate bump up from 33.3% in his 2020 debut season to 38.3% in 2021 alongside an 11.3% barrel rate.
MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-2-2021
My season outlook for Peterson was admittedly higher than what he’s shown to date. And, to a degree, his underlying 3.70 xFIP paints a brighter picture than his 5.13 FIP does. When you consider who has touched him up this season, the bias becomes even more clear. Arizona put up 3+ runs twice this season against him (8 R, 2 IP) and Colorado put up 3 runs in 6 innings. Granted, the Orioles hit about 20% better against left-handers than Colorado does and a few points higher than Arizona. So how can you blame me for getting a very similar vibe with this sneaky Baltimore lineup as I did with the D-backs last week.
Don’t Overthink This One
That’s what I kept telling myself when trying to figure out how to bet this game. Bruce Zimmermann is a 5.35 FIP/4.31 xFIP lefty who has yielded his share of hard hit balls (46.2%), especially when it comes to his low-90s fastball that has been demolished this year. I don’t trust Zimmermann to keep an edge against the Mets offense to make a first 5 innings money line bet. And New York packs a 3.10-FIP bullpen that is in very good form right now. Baltimore’s relief unit is running fairly well too, though I would rather have +120 or so to back the Birds on the full game money line. So how do I get there with this juicy matchup?
Part of the Orioles appeal is how willing and able they are to score early since breaking their losing streak. They’ve crossed the 3-run mark after 5 innings in four of their last five games: versus Michael Pineda (6), Randy Dobnak (3), Aaron Civale (3), and Cal Quantrill & company (12). And all of those guys were right-handed pitchers. The lone lefty they faced in the early innings of those five games was Sam Hentges in relief for Quantrill – and he promptly gave up 5 runs of his own. That leads me to the bigger part of Baltimore’s appeal, which is how well they have hit lefties this season (.286/.340/.465; 131 wRC+). To put these splits into context, their .286 batting average is tops in the MLB alongside the Astros and .465 slugging is right behind the White Sox. That is dangerous company to be in.
Orioles Hitters, Last 7 Days & vs. Left-Handed Pitching
| L7 | L7 wRC+ | vs. LHP | vs. LHP wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mullins | .600/.667/1.200 | 394 | .306/.375/.458 | 136 |
| Mountcastle | .500/.524/1.100 | 345 | .351/.365/.596 | 158 |
| Stewart | .438/.526/.688 | 237 | .296/.367/.296 | 95 |
| Santander | .316/.364/.368 | 107 | .364/.400/.485 | 150 |
| Mancini | .227/.292/.227 | 53 | .319/.392/.638 | 179 |
WAGER: Orioles First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Runs +110
ALTERNATIVE: Orioles Over 4.5 Runs +115
The downside to this position is that I am hyper-focused on a particular matchup. It’s a wager that I’ve played only once this season – exactly one month ago with the Astros against the Jays. It snuck over the 2.5 with just one out remaining in the 5th inning. A lot of indicators are aligning toward the Orioles getting getting us there in the warm humid air this evening, so it’s all systems go at Camden Yards!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (-135)
A. Houser (R) vs. S. Gray (R)
Here’s to hoping that I don’t put my Cincinnati Reds on ice after backing them against NL Central leader Milwaukee Brewers. Cincy throws ace Sonny Gray at the Brew Crew in an attempt to get back to .500 on the season. And you can tell by the price that Gray is their best hope to get a much-needed win in this series. This inflation is further accentuated by the juiced -150 on the first 5 innings money line. So I’ll cut right to the chase in this one – I want to back the Redlegs’ hot bats and not worry about how their pitching holds up against a surging Brewers lineup.
28-year-old third-year starter Adrian Houser aims to keep Milwaukee’s four-game win streak alive with a respectable five innings this evening. Houser’s outings this season for the most part have been solid (4.38 FIP/3.76 xFIP), even if they don’t consistently go deep into the game. He relies primarily on a mid-90s sinker that is effective but not as sharp as it was the last couple years. The big problem is that Houser’s secondary slider/curve/changeup offerings continue to be problematic. Then consider that Adrian has a big 47.4% hard hit rate and a HR/FB rate that has ticked up from 18.4% in 2019 to 24.2% last year and 27.3% so far this season. Fortunately for him, he generates a tick under 60% of ground ball contact.
A Match Made in Redlegs Heaven
Cincinnati’s veteran core has squared off against Houser several times in recent seasons and the damage is significant:
- Eugenio Suarez – .455/.455/.1.000; 2 HR in 11 AB
- Nick Castellanos – .364/.364/.727; 1 HR, 1 2B in 11 AB
- Jesse Winker – .500/.500/.1.400; 3 HR in 10 AB
Adrian Houser Starts vs. Cincinnati (2020-2021)
| 5-21-21 | @CIN | 4.0 IP | 6 R | 3 HR |
| 9-23-20 | @CIN | 4.1 IP | 4 R | 2 HR |
| 8-27-20 | vs. CIN | 4.0 IP | 4 R | 2 HR |
The only issue with the above is that Suarez has not hit well this season and was left behind by the Reds’ offensive spike last week (last 7 days: .278/.366/.512; 136 wRC+). But Houser’s recent starts against Cincy ring out in favor of their up-and-down lineup. Outside of a colossal failure by the Reds hitters, Adrian’s only path towards dodging heavy fire is to keep the ball on the ground and frustrate them with Milwaukee’s good defense. Then the Brewer can lean on an underachieving bullpen that has several very strong pieces in Brad Boxberger, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader. If past performances hold true to form this evening at Great American Ball Park, however, Cincinnati will get their 4 runs before Houser leaves the game.
WAGER: Reds Over 4 Runs -120
ALTERNATIVE: Reds Over 4.5 Runs +105
Around the Horn
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