I’ve been missing in action since Wednesday’s handicap with one intentional morning away and another that was unexpected. That’s life. But the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-5-2021 is ready to roll with a Saturday solo shot – one that hopefully pans out like Wednesday’s Arizona team total over positions. I wish more would end up like that! Well, it is a White Sox vs. lefty kind of day after all. Detroit Tigers’ starter Tarik Skubal gets a ton of strikeouts, but right-handed hitters are slugging .531 against him with 12 homers in 38 innings. Just sayin’.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-170)
I don’t think I am late to the party by making the San Francisco Giants today’s featured handicap. They’ve been a bankroll builder for some of us lately but you never know what’s going to happen once I throw a team into the spotlight. After all, the NL West-leading club is on an 8-2 run that is essential to them maintaining their slight edge over the Padres and Dodgers. They’ve taken the first two games in this four-game series with the Cubs and have their ace on the mound this evening. Both clubs are producing offensely at well above-average clips in terms of the trailing seven-day period:
- Giants .287/.376/.520; 141 wRC+
- Cubs .243/.308/.465; 111 wRC+
San Francisco elevated to the second-best production numbers behind Kansas City in the past week with 12 home runs and an interesting 11.9% BB/24.6% K mix. The high walk rate drives a league-best .376 OBP, which then fuels run production. A true team effort has achieved these numbers, especially as Buster Posey has cooled off from his two-month stretch of terrorizing pitchers. Fellow veteran Evan Longoria missed two games this week with a side injury but nonetheless finds himself in the midst of a seven-game hit streak that includes three multi-hit games and four bombs.
As one of the most robust platooning teams in the majors, the Giants essentially roll out two separate lineups depending on the starting pitcher’s handedness. The version that faces right-handed pitchers has been very prolific despite losing Mike Yastrzemski last week to a sprained thumb. Despite that loss, this lineup has been downright brutal to face:
San Francisco Offensive Production vs. RHP (Trailing 7 Days)
| wRC+ | OBP | |
|---|---|---|
| E. Longoria | 236 | 1.238 |
| A. Dickerson | 228 | 1.205 |
| B. Crawford | 193 | 1.101 |
| S. Duggar | 157 | .935 |
| L. Wade | 134 | .866 |
| D. Solano | 133 | .839 |
Chicago’s offense has been grinding out decent production as well, except that a pair of newcomers have led the charge alongside Kris Bryant. Patrick Wisdom has taken full advantage of his call-up after David Bote’s injury a couple weeks ago by hitting safely in seven of eleven games with three multi-hit games. Likewise, Sergio Alcantara is riding a five-game hit streak in his first six games of the 2021 season. Unfortunately, the Cubs lineup has not generated the sort of widespread production that San Francisco’s has. It has leaned heavily on Kris Bryant (last 7 days .304/.360/.696, 181 wRC+) and catcher Wilson Contreras (last 7 days .333/.417/.524, 161 wRC+) as guys like Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo work to get themselves back into prime form.
Bullpens on the Upswing
Both clubs have received strong relief work from their bullpens in recent weeks. For the Cubs, their pen continues to hold opponents in check with a 3.34 FIP/3.63 xFIP over the past two weeks – which is about par for the course this season. Most importantly for handicapping today’s contest, their 7th/8th/9th inning trio of Andrew Chafin, Ryan Tepera, and Craig Kimbrel have not worked since Tuesday. Unless it is a blowout, expect a couple or all three of these key relievers to get action this evening.
San Francisco’s numbers are less impressive over the same two-week period (4.18 FIP/3.87 xFIP) yet their work has been a small step in the right direction when compared to their season-long output. Unlike the Cubs, however, they don’t have a dominant back end. Their dual-closer approach of Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers combined to close out last night’s victory after Conner Menez and Dominic Leone put in 4 innings of work in relief. With a clear edge going to Chicago’s arms in the late game, I want to focus on the first 5 innings. In fact, I project an additional 7.3% of edge for the Giants in those opening frames as opposed to the full game.
K. Stewart (R) vs. K. Gausman (R)
Therefore, my position in this game is heavily rooted in the starting pitching matchup. Sure, a significant chunk of my handicap leans on the Giants’ ultra-productive lineup but today they have their ace on the bump. Kevin Gausman has been nothing short of great for San Francisco since last season. The 30-year-old picked up where he left off in 2020, producing nine quality starts this year and only one outing with more than 1 run scored against him. Oddly enough, Cincinnati was the only club to put up multiple runs while stymying teams like the Dodgers and the Padres. In fact, Gausman has delivered three one-run outings against San Diego. Anything can happen in a given game, but an expectation for 2 or fewer runs tonight is well within reason.
So that leaves his counterpart, 26-year-old Kohl Stewart. Does he have what it takes to put the handcuffs on the Giants lineup? A committed contrarian might be able to make the case for “yes” based on his splits, though Stewart’s 59.0 career IP in the majors cautions us not to read too much into them.
Kohl Stewart Career Splits
| AVG | OBP | SLG | FIP | xFIP | K/9 | BB/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. L | .236 | .306 | .364 | 4.99 | 5.19 | 2.73 | 3.34 |
| vs. R | .276 | .367 | .414 | 4.47 | 4.98 | 6.51 | 3.86 |
Kohl will likely face San Francisco’s lefty-heavy lineup this evening, which appears to set up in his favor in terms of the slash line against him. But the low strikeout rate and high FIP throw up a yellow flag of caution, especially when squaring off against a high-strikeout team (26.1%). Stewart has made only one MLB appearance this year after essentially missing out on the 2020 minor league season. His career 42.5% hard hit rate is a good sign for this Giants club even if Kohl’s lone start of 2021 was highly successful – 5.0 IP, 3H, 1 R, 2 K, 1 BB vs. San Diego last week.
That outing began the Padres’ period of low offensive production that has persisted through last night. Could he be the stopper of San Francisco’s hot offensive run? We will see, though my money is behind a convincing first 5 inning win with Gausman on the bump and a lineup that is currently producing from top to bottom. I am admittedly continuing to ride this wave even though all good things must come to an end at some point. My guess is that it fades slowly rather than burns out abruptly. Go Giants!
WAGER: Giants First 5 Innings -1/2 @ -115 (Good to -130+)
Around the Horn
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