The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-21-2021 hits the ground running after an unplanned no-handicap Thursday. At least Houston’s bats complied to carry Wednesday’s wager and make up for the Ohtani blow on Sunday. So we press on with a two-play Friday to kick off the weekend on the right foot.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-160)
Tonight’s east coast interleague clash pits a couple of hot lineups against one another, as both teams look to regain momentum in their tight divisional races. Boston held on last night to take two of three from Toronto and maintain a one-game lead over Tampa in the AL East. Philly, on the other hand, just dropped two of three to Miami at Citizens Bank Park but is keeping pace with NL East leader New York. Although it is not a divisional matchup, this is a big series for both teams.
In terms of current form, these clubs are in the top-third of the league in offensive production this past week. Boston’s .277/.309/.538, 130 wRC+ was aided by less-than-spectacular pitching from the Blue Jays and Angels, while Philadelphia’s .277/.364/.416, 119 wRC+ came against the Jays and a tough Marlins staff. Plus the Phillies have been without standout catcher JT Realmuto since Saturday.
In terms of each team’s offensive output this season, Boston has been spot on with my preseason expectations and is hitting both lefties and righties with the same vigor. Philadelphia has lagged across the board but is exhibiting a slight positive bias against southpaw pitchers like Martin Perez. And their recent hot stretch puts them more in line with my expectations, so I feel that assessing their production versus lefties around 110 wRC+ is fair – if not a little on the high side. So the question becomes more about which pitcher(s) are going to slow down the opposing hitters.
The Bullpen Situation
Boston’s relievers have been a positive surprise this season in some peoples’ eyes, including mine. My expectation was more in the mid-4.00 FIP range – which, after adjusting for this season’s lower league-wide offensive production, is more like a low-4.00s range. They have not been quite as sharp lately (last 7 days: 4.96 FIP/4.47 xFIP), though last night’s collective 2-run (0 earned) outing against Toronto was solid. The Sox have a very good and rested middle reliever Josh Taylor plus back-end guys Matt Andriese, Adam Ottavino, and closer Matt Barnes ready to step in if tonight’s contest is close. Barnes rebounded with a save last night after blowing Sunday’s opportunity.
On the flip side, Philadelphia’s often-maligned bullpen has been more effective than usual this past week (3.93 FIP/3.40 xFIP). Manager Joe Girardi has paced his relievers nicely, leaving the back end in position to work against this tough Red Sox lineup tonight. His 6th & 7th inning go-to men Connor Brogdon and Sam Coonrod have arguably been more reliable than Jose Alvarado and Hector Neris, so expect the former two to get the call in case Aaron Nola exits before finishing six frames. Scoring runs against this Philly bullpen is anything but a gimme, though Boston’s lineup of top notch hitters will certainly test this group.
M. Perez (L) vs. A. Nola (R)
In terms of shutting down hitters, Philly’s Aaron Nola is one of the best. His 2021 season has been up-and-down and he comes into tonight’s game having given up 8 runs in the last two starts. But the major caveat to this recent form revolves around Nola’s home/road splits. To date, Aaron has yielded only 4 runs in four outings at Citizens Bank Park – as opposed to 18 runs in five road starts. In fact, Nola has a stifling 1.93 FIP/3.11 xFIP at home this season compared to a solid 3.94 FIP/3.67 xFIP on the road. And those splits are present – yet slightly more muted – across his career.
I might be able to make the case for Boston being a step up in class when compared to the early-season contests at home against the Braves, Mets, and Cardinals – where only the latter has started to click offensively. JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts have a track record of ineffectiveness against Nola as well, placing more of a burden on them bucking the trend and/or other key cogs like Verdugo, Devers, and Dalbec picking up the slack.
When Will Martin Pay the Price?
Nola’s counterpart, Martin Perez, has been tough in his own rights despite yielding 3+ walks in three starts. Especially after watching him dodge plenty of bullets against the Angels’ slumping lineup on Sunday, I agree with the underlying metrics (4.52 xFIP vs. 3.51 FIP) saying that Perez is tiptoeing around some disastrous results. And Philly’s offensive form will be a huge test, especially when compared to his recent foes like Baltimore, Detroit, and Texas.
Neither pitcher has given up a ton of hard contact this season. However, Nola’s 32.7% is a big improvement over the last couple seasons while Perez’ 34.5% is more indicative of his rougher years in Texas. With all that said, I’ve handicapped Aaron Nola as being about a full FIP run better than Martin Perez – and it all comes down to Nola’s superior 6.78 K/BB ratio that is rooted in his excellent 10.10 K/9 and 1.49 BB/9 rates. No argument from me that this is a starting pitching mismatch in favor of Philadelphia.
WAGER: Red Sox +138 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs -112 (1/2 unit)
There is no doubt in my mind that Boston will have their hands full with a tough Aaron Nola on the mound this evening. Yet the underdog price around +140 is too tempting for me to pass up. The Red Sox have a formidable lineup of high-average hitters with significant power that can put up multiple runs in no time. Plus they have a slight bullpen edge that could be even larger depending on how Philadelphia’s volatile back end performs. But the Phillies to be the favorite with Nola pitching – a 6+ inning outing with only a pair of runs is very possible, regardless of who he faces.
Still, I find a Red Sox 4-3 type of victory very possible. Then again, so is a Phillies 5-2 outcome with their bats going against Martin Perez. I’ll play the percentages here with a split position that plays off of a 4-run floor for the Sox and a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset. +138 is pretty much as low as I want to go against Nola though, so don’t take too short of a number if you side with Boston as well.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-110)
Here we go again – the White Sox versus a lefty deal is back. And while I can’t say that this continues to be a blind bet for me, I must dig for reasons why not to bet it. One reason is that Chicago’s .346-OBP first baseman Jose Abreu may not be ready for tonight’s series opener due to an ankle injury. A second reason is how uninspired this offense looked as they wrapped up the Minnesota series. However, the White Sox got a much-needed day of rest yesterday after playing ten games in nine days.
C. Rodon (L) vs. J. Montgomery (L)
So will New York’s Jordan Montgomery oblige to the Chicago run barrage? On face value, he is a 4.00-ish FIP lefty who has had good outings and rough ones. Plus he has tendencies that favor right-handed hitting, especially this season. Righties are hitting him for 36.2% hard contact in 2021 as opposed to 27.3% for lefties (career: 30.3% vs. lefties, 20.3% vs. righties). Likewise, he has a 4.93 FIP/4.40 xFIP mark against righties compared to a 1.51 FIP/2.39 xFIP mark against lefties this season. Chicago may have some trouble pushing across multiple runs once Montgomery leaves the game, although the Yankees’ stout bullpen has not been as sharp recently (last 7 days: 3.67 FIP/4.83 xFIP). Asking for 5 runs against this Yankees club is a tough task, but I will continue to ride this train with the plus-money luring me in once again tonight.
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 +105
Around the Horn
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