After triple-checking my handicapping on the Astros/Tigers game yesterday morning, I punched a single MLB ticket for the short Monday slate. The downside to the Astros +105 run line wager was the strong possibility that Matthew Boyd would shut the Houston offense down and the Tigers would do enough to foil the run line. Instead, the hot-hitting AL West leaders worked Boyd deep and bounced him early. Once they were into the Detroit bullpen, the Tigers’ fate had been sealed.
The 8-1 victory was a great way to start week 7, but Tuesdays have been my nemesis so far this year. I’ve gone 6-15 in the previous 6 Tuesdays for a net loss of exactly 8.00 units. Oof. Hell, 5.05 units of that came on last Tuesday alone. Maybe Mondays aren’t the worst day of the week after all!
While the “bad Tuesdays” thing shouldn’t affect my wagering approach, I must admit that it has kept me on the fence with 2 games. Chicago/Cincinnati should be a play on the +122 underdog Reds but I think Roark is on borrowed time with his starts and could get roughed up at some point. He’s benefitted by some sharp defensive plays that may have swung several of his games in a completely different direction. Hendricks is pithing like a mad man with only one brutal start all season.
I’ll stay on the sidelines with the Reds, as I will with the Diamondbacks. By all measures, Arizona should thump Pittsburgh and cover the run line but I’ll be brutally honest: how the hell can you figure out what this Pirates team is going to do on a daily basis? They’ve surely been tough for me to gauge confidently. Musgrove has been rocked lately but their offense and bullpen can be very streaky. They are truly tough to back or play against in their current form so I will lay low.
I hate to say it, but job #1 today is limiting exposure to a major meltdown while giving myself a couple shots at cashing. With 2 potential plays left on the bench, my money is behind 2 wildly-different sides tonight…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Brandon Woodruff has pitched effectively lately, yielding only 1 run in each of his last 3 starts. He is supported by a decent bullpen and an offense with serious firepower potential. The Brewers have shown this power many times this year, but frankly, their lineup has cooled off some lately. They’ve been sloppy in the field and dropped a couple big games in Chicago over the weekend. After a great win streak they find themselves on a 3-game mini-skid.
Getting back on track will not be easy tonight against a tough Jerad Eickhoff, whose last 3 games have qualified as quality starts. He gave up 1 run over 20 innings in those 3 outings, though the number of walks he has yielded is a bit of a concern. The Brewers could expose his 1.50 ERA/4.06 xFIP discrepancy, but my money is on another solid game for the Philly righty.
Although my game flow handicapping calls for a solid win by the Phillies, I am influenced by the team’s current form. They’ve won 3 in a row, 3 of their last 4 at home, and are on a 5-1 run. Resurgence of their offense is also encouraging; the Phillies have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games. Both bullpens are good, so no edge for either team although both units were used heavily last night.
Backing Current Form: Phillies +102
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
Just like the Astros game yesterday, I had to do a triple-check of my handicapping for the Rangers/Royals game today. Despite a lackluster offense, my indicators call for a decisive Royals victory over Texas and their streaky lineup. Shelby Miller may have a lot to do with that position, considering he is good for 5 innings at most and has given up 4 runs in 4 of his last 6 outings. This exposes a terrible bullpen for too much of the game.
The Rangers have a difficult time hitting lefties (30 points lower) and they get a tough one tonight with Danny Duffy. He’s produced quality starts in his last 3 outings, although you could say he is punching above his weight with a 3.06 ERA/4.90 xFIP combination. Texas and their weakness against lefties may not be in a position to expose this discrepancy tonight unless Duffy continues to give up inopportune free passes.
The major issue that could foil my plan is a sputtering Kansas City offense that has a great opportunity to produce against Shelby Miller and a really bad bullpen. Regardless, I’ll roll the dice and play for a good pitching performance from the Royals start-to-finish coupled with enough runs from their offense to seal the deal.
