Previous Week Plays – 3-3
Season Record – 11-6
Week 4 Recap:
All that happened for the BetCrushers in terms of our posted plays for week four was chopping up some juice and giving the books some money after a rather blah 3-3 weekend. The Cardinals were the thorn in our side as we had two of our bets on them and they cost us with their loss in Carolina. Losing the cover there was tough, but we knew that was a square bet. The real killer was their team total over that they fell short of. There really is no reason they shouldn’t have been able to score more against that Panther defense, but that’s why they play the games. We had some pretty spot-on reads with our wins and even had the scores pretty darn close. We had the Chiefs game teased with multiple books, one of which honored the bet, one cancelled it when the game was moved to Monday.
Week 5 Picks:
The BetCrushers have been handicapping games for nearly two decades unofficially and have seen just about everything imaginable over that time. It’s not a huge stretch to say that this is one of the least appealing weekends in terms of both game quality and betting opportunities that we can recall in recent memory. If you’re evaluating across the slate the biggest opportunity appears to be with teasers as there are seven games you could potentially tease favorites down under the key number of three. We’re not completely sold on most of the teams though, as this weekend has the feeling of a lot of favorites being parlay busters. We went light this week with a team total, a play on a pick’em game, and stayed disciplined with just one teaser play.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (2-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-4)
Sunday October 11th
1:00pm
FOX
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Atlanta Falcons -1 (-110)
Over/Under 54 (-110)
Fantasy football players are always interested in the superstars on the Atlanta Falcons offense. While the Falcons have put up some good numbers offensively, it’s actually the Carolina Panthers who are surprisingly scoring at a high clip. The Panthers look to improve on their record within the NFC South, as the Falcons are desperate for a win, with head coach Dan Quinn literally fighting for his job.
Matt Ryan is ranked near the top in quarterback rankings as he usually is through four games this season despite the teams 0-4 start. Teddy Bridgewater is not near the top in rankings, but he is playing some really nice football and has his offense rolling. A divisional showdown with the Falcons provides an opportunity for Bridgewater and the Panthers to keep lighting up the scoreboard. You’ve got to feel a little bad for the Falcons who simply cannot keep the pieces of their defense, in particular their secondary, healthy and on the field. A season-ending injury in week for to Damonte Kazee makes three starters out in what was a pretty thin secondary to begin with. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson aren’t generally talked about in the same breath as the elite wide receivers in the league, yet their production as a tandem is as solid as any pair in the league so far. They have the speed to take advantage of mistakes of a defense, something that certainly will happen with backup players logging key snaps. Shifting to the passing game, Atlanta has also been inconsistent with their pass rush. That’s not good news when facing a smart quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater who is careful with the football. The real weapon in this game is lining up to be injured Christian McCaffrey’s backup, running back Mike Davis. Anytime you’re moving from CMC to another back, there is going to be a substantial drop off in talent. If you’ve watched Davis though, he’s played very well stepping in, and more importantly, the team hasn’t had to adjust their game plan. Davis has been a three-down back and active and successful both running and receiving. If you caught our DFS play, we’re looking for Davis to have a huge day against this Falcons defense, and a lot of points to go on the board.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense looked really bad in primetime as they showed very little explosiveness and couldn’t convert third downs. A large part of that was Julio Jones hobbling for a couple of series before exiting the game. His status for Sunday is unknown, but if he can’t be more effective than he was last weekend, this offense could have some struggles again. The obvious bright news for ATL is that the Panthers defense is not as good as the Packers so they should have a little easier path to move the chains. Ryan was under constant pressure against Green Bay so they’ll need to play a lot better on the offensive line if they want to get the scoring going again. The Falcons should be able to get Todd Gurley going a bit, at least enough to open up some play-action passing and to slow down the Panthers pass rush.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are averaging 24.85 points per game in 2020
– The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 7 Panther games
– The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 Panther games vs NFC South
The Falcons season and the Dan Quinn era are basically all but over in Atlanta as a combination of collapses, poor coaching, injuries and bad luck did them in. Their offense has a chance to bounce back this week if Julio Jones is in the lineup, but their defense, which was really not great to begin with, is now decimated yet again with injuries. We’re going to assume that Carolina will be able to hit some big plays with their speedy receivers, and Mike Davis is going to have a big day. Couple that with the consistency and smart play of Teddy Bridgewater and we foresee the Panthers surpassing their average of 25 points per game. The play for us is the Carolina team total over which is set at 26.5.
BetCrushers Take: Over 26.5 points – Carolina Panthers
Panthers 31, Falcons 27
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Sunday October 11th
4:25pm
CBS
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
PICK (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
A little surprising that the arguable game of the week is the Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns with each team looking to improve to 4-1. The game opened with the Colts as field goal road favorites and early money has come in on the Browns setting this spread as a pick’em going into the weekend.
After a little bit of a slow start to the season, Philip Rivers and the Colts offense seems to be finding their stride. A hard-fought win in Chicago against a physical Bears defense showed this team can win those tough and gritty games. They’ll have to deal with the Browns pass rush and in particular Myles Garrett, who’s coming off his best game of the season with 2 sacks. Overall, the Browns defense has not been great on the season, ranking in the bottom half of the league. There are two big keys in the matchup between the Colts offense and Browns defense. The first is who wins the battle in the trenches, as the very good Colts offensive line is going to try to force their will in the running game for rookie Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. If the Colts can consistently get 5 yard runs, they will be in good shape to win this football game. If the Browns can slow that down and force this into Philip Rivers hands, they’ll be in a much better place. That leads right in to our second key, which is the play of Philip Rivers. The veteran has not played terribly as he’s adjusting to his new team, but he’s still making too many costly mistakes. The Browns are ranked first in the league in takeaways, which could be a recipe for disaster for Philip Rivers. If Rivers doesn’t turn the ball over in this game, the Colts will be in really good shape to win this one. If the Browns can force him into mistakes, they’ll hold serve at home and take this game.
The Browns exploded in week four in all facets offensively racking up yards and points en route to a win in Dallas. It will be a lot tougher sledding against the Colts, who have proven they are one of the top defenses in the league. For starters let’s take a look at the running game. Nick Chubb will be out, which puts the load of carrying the ground game on the shoulders of Kareem Hunt. That’s not really a downgrade at all, although going from a two headed monster to one is never ideal at the running back position. A key thing to watch is the availability and agility of Colts star linebacker Darius Leonard who is listed as questionable to play. Signs point to him giving it a go, which would be a big boost for this Colts defense. Whether Leonard goes or not, at some points during this game, the Browns are going to have to make some plays in the passing game. Third down specifically, will be a big stat to watch. Baker Mayfield has played better at home, and has played much like a game manager this season. His receivers made huge plays last week and how well they can ride that wave and momentum not only in this game, but also throughout the season is going to be important. When OBJ and Jarvis Landry are playing well, this team is rolling, when they’re not heavily involved, they tend to struggle.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Colts are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 games vs. the Browns
– The Browns are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. the Colts
This is by no means a lock and could end up being a field goal game in either direction. The Browns and Baker Mayfield have played much better at home so if you’re hesitant to take the road team we completely get it. Analytics tell us that the Colts have a 54% chance of winning the game. That’s enough of an edge for us to take a shot in what’s moved to an even spread. Even if Darius Leonard doesn’t go, which it looks like he will, this Colts defense is a legitimate top 3 unit in the league. After some really creative offense against the Cowboys, offense may be a little tougher to come by for the Browns this weekend. If Philip Rivers can play a mostly clean game, the Colts should come away with a hard fought win.
BetCrushers Take: Indianapolis Colts – Pick
Colts 23, Browns 20
Teaser Bet
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)
Sunday October 11th
1:00pm
FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Sunday October 11th
1:00pm
CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)
Over/Under 55.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Pittsburgh -.5 and Kansas City -5.5
A black and blue and heavy hitting game is on tap when inter-state teams battle between the Eagles and Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Eagles have owned the head-to-head record over the Steelers, but it’s been the home team over the last dozen years that has been the victor when they’ve played. The Eagles are still banged up, in contrast to the Steelers who are fresh off of what was an early season bye. A completely different style game is set to take place in Kansas City as the high-flying Chiefs will face their division rival Las Vegas Raiders in what looks to be another shootout opportunity. This is a slightly unconventional teaser play compared to our normal style, but one we’re excited about nevertheless.
Looking back at the history of the two proud Pennsylvania football teams you’ll see some really interesting trends. We have a few outlined below, but this game looks pretty easy to evaluate when you look at the 2020 version of this contest. The Eagles offense has not played great and they enter another game banged up at the wide receiver position and on the offensive line. Lane Johnson is slated to return which is big, but overall there is a huge mismatch between this O-Line and the front seven of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Many Philly fans have been clamoring for Jalen Hurts to get his shot at quarterback after a slow start from Carson Wentz and it’s not impossible we could see Hurts in this game. We hope that’s not the case as that would mean that Wentz was probably knocked out of the game. The reality is, he is going to be under heavy duress and if the Eagles can’t get Miles Sanders and the running game going. The Steelers don’t allow easy yards on the ground, so if they’re able to tee off on Wentz, it could get ugly and painful. The Eagles are a tough and proud team, so don’t expect a rout here at all. This one just seems like a little too steep of a mountain for this Philadelphia team to climb.
Our second teaser play goes back to the well that is the Kansas City Chiefs. They have been a covering machine, and are once again heavy favorites at -11.5, as they take on another dinged up team in the Las Vegas Raiders. Unlike in the first game of this teaser, points should be plentiful here as they usual are with the Chiefs. The Raiders are capable of scoring points as well, so this matchup could be a fun one. Kansas City has had their way with the Raiders in recent years and it’s hard to imagine they can’t come away with a victory here as well. The question really is will it be a close game or could this be a blowout? The matchup adds up to a blowout, but of course we’ve seen a divisional opponent really test this Chiefs bunch a couple of weeks ago. The big difference between the Raiders and the Chargers though is the fact that LA was able to put heavy pressure on Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders aren’t nearly as strong with their pass rush or in their secondary. Mahomes should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in the passing game with his choice of weapons and routes. The Raiders may be able to keep up the pace, but the word there is clearly, maybe. The Chiefs defense seems to be able to turn it one when they want or need to and they welcome back defensive tackle Chris Jones which should help slow down Josh Jacobs and allow the pass rush to get after Derek Carr. If we were forced to bet this game, we’d lay the big number, but that just isn’t a sharp play as a slow KC start or backdoor score could crush that.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Steelers are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 home games
– The Steelers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs the NFC
– The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs the Chiefs
– The Raiders are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games vs the Chiefs
– The Chiefs are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games
– The Chiefs are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs the AFC West
The game between the Eagles and Steelers should be a close and competitive battle between two blue collar teams. We debated taking the points with the Eagles, but this team is just too banged up to rely on against such a strong defense like the Steelers. It’s just tough to imagine Carson Wentz and the offense will be able to do enough against the Steelers to come away with the win. In the AFC West matchup we’re not teasing under the key number of 3, which is a little stressful. But we are getting the best team in the league under the key numbers of 7 and 6 in a home game against a team they have owned in a game that should be high scoring. They’ve routinely beaten the Raiders by double digits since Mahomes took over and they should do that again. Ultimately, we feel a lot better just needing to win by a TD, rather than a blowout.
