Opening 7-Day Recap: Wednesday afternoon run line plays went 0-2 for a loss of 2.00 units. Season results are 9-11 for +0.92 units. A one-week gain just shy of +1 unit is OK considering projections are being adjusted and wagers are conservative. The big drag on profits was the loose Yankees -185 run line bet on Saturday, the likes of which shall not be repeated. That made a huge difference on the bottom line.
In terms of where my handicapping is in relation to the infancy of the season, I’ve made slight adjustments to pre-season projections where significant lineup or bullpen cogs are on the IL. Current season statistics have not yet been integrated into the team metrics, but I will begin to blend them in next week at a low weighting. This is a period where you must respect what is happening on the field but cannot let a small sample size skew your numbers too much. Sometimes it’s better to sit out certain games rather than overreact.
Thursday presents a short card, but there are games all day. Looks to be some good opportunities here…
Washington Nationals @ NY Mets
This is the marquee afternoon game pitting Stephen Strasburg against Noah Syndergaard for the Mets’ home opener. The Nets are fresh off of a walk-off walk against the Phillies, where they jumped on Nola early and then scratched back late to leave home with a win. Strasburg is expected to be solid today, although the question is how long will he last? Washington’s bullpen was taxed heavily yesterday afternoon and they could be asked to pitch 4 innings against a capable Mets offense.
Other than injuries, there is no reason why Thor should not be a dominant starter this season. I expect a good outing today even though he was not sharp in Washington. The Mets took 2 of 3 from the Nats to open the season, their bats are tuned up, and can give Strasburg a challenge. They must get into the Washington bullpen by the 6th if they want to separate for a decisive win. This is the path we see for a sizable run line win. It’s worth a play.
WAGER: Mets RL +175
Boston Red Sox @ Oakland A’s
The Sox came alive in the 9th last night to double up the A’s 6-3. Rodney sparked last night’s implosion, choking away a tie game and giving Boston a much-needed road win. Boston has started the season with a very long road trip (is this how MLB treats its Champs?!?) and is struggling on the west coast swing. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound today for an early start in Oakland. Boston has the hitters and the aura of being World Series Champs, but this should come down to whether their starter can vary his pitches and use all three of them to keep the A’s off the bases.
The A’s have not been an overpowering team so far in 2019, though you can call them opportunistic. Outside of their Japan trip to start the season, they have only given up more than 2 runs twice…and those were bullpen meltdowns including last night’s. I still believe that their pen is one of MLB’s best despite these one-off events. They don’t give up much, but when they do it is ugly. Brett Anderson is less flashy than Rodriguez and doesn’t generate his level of Ks. He’s a solid pitcher and that’s all they need to get it to the bullpen with a small lead.
WAGER: A’s +105
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
The 1-4 Cubs are looking for answers early in the season. The main question being, how do we turn all of these baserunners into runs?!? Darvish got crushed in Texas and it’s truly hard to tell what kind of performance he will give today. It’s difficult to imagine it will be on that level of misery, so I am counting on a reasonable outing to get through the 5th inning with limited damage.
The Cubbies face Max Fried, who has limited big league experience and can be prone to walking batters. These teams are coming off of a bullpen-heavy game last night so the duration of these starters is critical to the outcome. Chicago has had no shortage of hits and baserunners this season. It’s a matter of getting them converted to runs. Should be a live dog here tonight.
WAGER: Cubs +105
Texas Rangers @ LA Angels
The 4-2 Rangers bring momentum to Anaheim to face the Angels who are more than ready to come home. The Halos have lost 4 in a row despite not giving up a lot of runs. Offensive expectations are low for both clubs, but only LA has lived up to this reputation so far in 2019. I’ll be brief here: Harvey needs to post a solid outing to keep the Angels in the game since Edinson Volquez has the ability to let the Angels finally score some runs and get a home win.
