Previous Week Plays – 5-0
Season Record – 6-2
Week 2 Recap:
Obviously when you have a 5-0 perfect week and crush prop bets it’s easy to say that things were fantastic. It’s just as important to evaluate what the “real” week looked like when you’re winning as it is to justify when you’re losing. Three of the victories were pretty clear cut so it’s nice to know that we definitely were on the correct sides in those contests. The other two ended up really being a coin flip, and we fortunately got the right bounces. The most encouraging thought is knowing that we were not on the incorrect sides anywhere, which is a good spot to be in when it’s still early in the season.
Week 3 Picks:
There is nothing unusual about not finding a lot of value with NFL spread lines when you first run down the weekend’s list. It often takes us quite a bit of research to find the matchups or numbers that offer a true edge versus the sportsbooks. We had to go back quite a ways to remember when even after some studying there seemed to be so little value across the board. The books took a hit in week two so it’s reasonable to assume they’re going to recoup some of that which makes fading the public the logical choice. With the picks we leaned towards, it scares the heck out of us as we’d be backing some pretty poor football teams. As a result we have a very slim ticket for week three with only two posted official plays. Look for our Prop Corner bets Sunday morning as we’ll likely be more loaded with wagers there. As for our game picks, one against the spread and one teaser based strictly on the numbers formula. These aren’t our favorite picks of all-time, but we like them enough to bet them.
Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (2-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Sunday September 27th
1:00pm
CBS
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Tennessee Titans -3 (-105)
Over/Under 50 (-110)
The Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans each entered the season with playoff aspirations and a belief they could compete in their respective conferences. After two weeks, the Titans are riding high with some exciting wins, while the Vikings are reeling and find themselves in desperate need of a win on Sunday. Both teams want to run the football and play great defense, however neither has played well defensively. The big difference is the Titans have managed to put enough timely offense together to get them into the win column.
Ryan Tannehill continues to make the Titans looks smart as he’s really leading this offense efficiently. Tennessee has managed to put points up without the astronomical production from Derrick Henry we saw in the second half of the 2019 season. That’s not great news for the Vikings defense, a unit that is normally one of the most respected in the league. Key injuries to Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr, along with their offenses inability to sustain drives has made this defense look downright weak. Without those two cogs, Derrick Henry could really punish this defense on the ground. In reality, Henry may not be the biggest concern as the secondary for this team is overmatched, especially if A.J. Brown can return from his injury that forced him to miss last week.
Watching the replay of the Vikings first two games, their offense has looked equally inept to their defense. The difference being, there doesn’t seem to be a reason as to why they’ve struggled so much? It makes sense that not having Stefon Diggs lined up outside would have an impact, but Kirk Cousins flat out looks like he shouldn’t be a quarterback in this league. Feel free to insert the jokes about how that’s been obvious for years there. Really though Cousins has at the very least been a capable quarterback, not one who is unable to score points and lead steady drives. Adam Thielen had a nice week one, but was silent last weekend, and the young receivers and tight end Irv Smith, Jr. have not stepped up in replacement of Diggs. Is all hope lost for the team in purple? If Cousins can’t play better and the receivers don’t step up, then yeah the answer would be a simple, yes. Mike Zimmer has his gameplan, and he needs to figure out a way to implement it. That would include getting Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison 25 carries against the Titans. Tennessee’s defense is missing Jurrell Casey on their defensive front and running backs have feasted against them. Cook and the running game does well at home and we’re expecting a breakout game from the guy we’re taking a chance with as our fantasy star of the week.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 16-3-1 ATS under Mike Zimmer after 2 straight ATS losses.
– The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans
Anyone who wants to argue that the Titans are the best play in this game certainly should be listened to as the stats back that up. The eyeball test, particularly with the Vikings would also confirm that. Betting with your gut is not a sustainable way to be profitable in gambling, but every once in a while you have to go out on a limb, something we’re doing with both of our wagers this week. The Vikings are not a great football team, yet they’re also not terrible. They know they need a win, and Cousins came on last year when the pressure was on early in the season after a slow start. If Minnesota can keep this game close, look for a lot of Dalvin Cook and it could be a black and blue type of game that stays close.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings +3
Vikings 27, Titans 26
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (2-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Sunday September 27th
8:20pm
NBC
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Saints -3 (-115)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
The Football schedulers gave NFL fans an absolute treat in the prime-time matchups as four of the top and most watched teams and quarterbacks will face off on Sunday and Monday night. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have played some fantastic games in the past, and this one should be another good one in what could be the last time these two square off if they don’t see each other again in the playoffs.
The Packers have looked really good opening the season with two wins and Aaron Rodgers is playing like a true MVP candidate for the first time in a few seasons. A-Rod will need to be as magical as ever heading into Superdome without his top target Davante Adams, who is listed as doubtful to play. It’s rare that one player not being a QB could have such a potential impact on a team, however in the case of Green Bay that would be true. How will the Pack adapt to not having their top receiving threat? We’ve got to imagine that Aaron Jones and the running game will be a big part of the gameplan. Marcus Davenport is also a scratch for the Saints defensive line, but despite that, it won’t be a walk in the park for Jones and the running back group. That puts the pressure right back on Rodgers, something he’s used to and capable of overcoming. The real question is, if Rodgers is putting the ball where it needs to be, are his receivers both open enough, and capable enough to make plays? The team has been waiting for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to play consistently, and this would be the best chance for him to prove he can do so. It’s just so difficult to picture MVS and a combination of guys like Robert Tonyan and Allen Lazard bringing enough punch in this game, no matter how well Rodgers performs under the lights.
If it sounds dire for Green Bay, just think about the situation that the Saints find themselves in on Sunday. They are in danger of slipping to 1-2, and more critically, being an offense and team that are not feared as they once were. The jury is still out on Drew Brees, who has not looked like the quarterback who has surgically carved up defenses throughout his career. Let’s not forget he is operating without his number one weapon as well, the man who set the NFL record for catches last season in Michael Thomas. Brees has some capable options with tight end Jared Cook and one of the best pass-catching running backs in the game in Alvin Kamara so it’s not as though he’ll be void of weapons. The player they really need to get some production from is Emmanuel Sanders, who like Brees, has not looked like the quality player we’ve seen throughout his time in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Sean Payton put some extra emphasis on getting the ground game going and Latavius Murray could see some additional work. It’s not the most talked about matchup in a game featuring Brees and Rodgers, but how the Saints talented tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk do versus the Packers pass rushers will be a deciding factor on how well or poorly Brees performs.
Key Stats and Trends
– The over is 8-1 in the last 9 matchups between the Saints and Packers
We’re going completely against the grain of historical trends as both teams, especially when playing each other, have tended to go over the total at a high percentage. Throw in the fact that both Rodgers and Brees have played their best in primetime and there could be some explosiveness Sunday Night. Mathematical bettors would understandably hate our pick, but there is so much more that goes into this particular game than just the history between these two teams. The Davante Adams injury can’t be understated as it’s not hyperbole to say that no team in the league has a higher dropoff from a key wide receiving weapon to their next man up. On the Saints side, this is not the Saints from 2015 who would routinely play 37-34 ballgames. The running backs for both teams will be a focal point of the offense and those over the top passing plays should be few and far between. Could these two future Hall of Famers burn us in a classic offensive contest? Anything is possible, however we’re locking this under in and assuming there’ll even be a margin for error.
BetCrushers Take: Under Total – 53
Saints 24, Packers 22
Teaser Bet
Washington Football at Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Washington Football (1-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Sunday September 27th
1:00pm
FOX
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-125)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) vs. Denver Broncos (0-2)
Sunday September 27th
4:25pm
FOX
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (EVEN)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Say it with us: Teasers are all about playing numbers, and not teams. Well, that’s partially true. It’s definitely about playing the numbers, however you still want to make sure you’re on the side with the correct team. The Browns are a team that can let you down, but they have to win this football game against the Redskins. The Broncos are a tough team that is as good as any team in the league when playing at home, but they have too many injuries to compete with the Buccaneers.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: CLEVELAND -.5 and TAMPA BAY -.5
What a difference a week can make for the teams in our first leg of the teaser for the Redskins and Browns. After week one, the Redskins were riding high and the Browns were in disarray. Fast forward to week two and the Redskins looked horrible, while the Browns are suddenly walking with some swagger once again.
Dwayne Haskins has certainly been up and down in his young NFL career as you might expect from a QB in just the start of their second season. It’s difficult to really grade him though as the organization hasn’t exactly done a lot to help him out on their offense. The offensive line did not play well against the Cardinals and the team is still looking for a running game, although rookie Antonio Gibson has shown some flashes. The big bright spot has certainly been Terry McLaurin who continues to make plays and be productive despite not a lot of help around him. The Browns defense has been a little thin in the secondary, but the Redskins just don’t have enough weapons to really exploit that in this game. Cleveland’s defensive line should find success getting after Haskins and it wouldn’t be shocking if they can force him into some turnovers. Speaking of mistakes, the best shot the Redskins have to pull the upset would be if their fierce defensive line can force Baker Mayfield into his own turnovers, something he’s been known to do. Unlike Washington, the Browns do have plenty of weapons to challenge their secondary. We all know that one of the best ways to neutralize a strong line is with a power running game, something Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be able to do Sunday. Throw in the fact that the Browns are a good home team and the Skins’ struggle on the road and the formula seems to add up. If you want one single argument on why the Browns will win this game, it’s really a comparison to their most recent victory. They should be able to overpower their opponents offensive line, and use their own offensive talent to come out with the win.
Looking ahead to the late window game in our teaser let’s put one thing out there right off the bat. If the Denver Broncos had their full roster in place, we would not be challenging them as their home record both straight up and against the spread is as good as it gets. Unfortunately for Bronco fans, they’re pretty banged up, and will be missing some of their most important pieces, including quarterback Drew Lock. His replacement Jeff Driskel has experience in this league so it’s not the end of the world there, but when you look at the key losses, primarily Courtland Sutton and Von Miller for starters, it’s going to be too much. Tampa on the other hand gets wide receiver Chris Godwin back after missing last week in concussion protocol. Melvin Gordon is capable of shouldering the load at running back for Denver, however Tampa has been one of the better run stuffing teams over the past season and a half. If they can force Driskel to be one dimensional without the services of Sutton it’s asking an awful lot for rookie Jerry Jeudy to keep pace with Godwin and Mike Evans. The area where Driskel will need to focus is over the middle with tight end Noah Fant who is quickly becoming a star at the position. It’s also an area where TB can be exposed as they’ve struggled defending opposing tight ends. In trying to project a game script, this game should be close in the first half and probably pretty low scoring. Tom Brady has the experience and the talent around him to figure out how to win this tough road game and the Bucs’ should come away with a hard fought W against the depleted Broncos.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Redskins are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Browns are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 home games
– The Broncos are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games versus the NFC
We’ll be completely honest here, these games are a little concerning. Relying on the Cleveland Browns to win? Betting against the Broncos at Mile High? Neither are great long-term approaches to sustainable betting wins when you really look at it. We’re playing the numbers here, and just wanting that straight up victory with the more talented teams.
