Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 0-0
Raise your hand if you weren’t sure that we would have professional football starting in September. Our hands our up, but fortunately the time has come and the NFL juggernaut will keep rolling as we prepare for week one of the 2020 season. We’ve spent the offseason tracking moves, evaluating teams and players, and adjusting our rankings in preparation. The COVID-19 pandemic brings some additional variables to handicapping games so doing our due diligence we should probably advise everyone to perhaps make your wagers conservatively to start the season. Or you can just dive in and let it ride, the choice is yours! Here are the wagers we are playing/posting in week one:
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) ATS (0-0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (0-0) ATS (0-0)
Sunday September 13th
4:25pm
FOX
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
No team can win the division or conference in week one of the season, however it’s not an overstatement to say that when we look back on this game at the end of the season, that this game could end up having had playoff implications. The NFC West looks as though it will be the strongest division in the league, assuming the Cardinals take a marked leap and can contend with teams like the 49ers. In San Francisco, they’re working to buck the trend of Super Bowl losing teams who fall flat in the following season.
If you were able to check out our NFC West preview you know we’re pretty high on this Arizona football team as both the offense and defense should be improved. Nationally, quarterback Kyler Murray is getting a lot of love so he’s already facing some pressure in 2020. That pressure will be dwarfed by the potential pressure he will see Sunday when Nick Bosa and the aggressive and physically imposing 49er defense lines up across from him. More than one NFL quarterback ranked this defense the scariest to face last year as the team rode that all the way to a near Super Bowl win. On the plus side, Murray should be helped out by a spry running game and having two of the best wide receivers of the past decade to throw to in newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins and the veteran Larry Fitzgerald. That part should work well for the team despite Richard Sherman and an opportunistic secondary lurking on the other side. The proverbial battle in the trenches is where Arizona must play well if they are going to have a chance in this ballgame. Their offensive line is a patchwork of marginal players that will have their hands full with the front four of the Niners. Murray did a nice job as a rookie understanding when to tuck and run and when to get out of the pocket. Look for him to navigate those situations solidly thanks to his experience from his rookie season.
The 49ers have some strengths and weaknesses of their own when you watch the tape and look at the roster offensively. The line should be good again, although on paper it’s maybe not quite as athletic with Trent Williams taking over at left tackle. Although he received his share of accolades during his career, Joe Staley was one of the more underrated left tackles given what he brought to this team. The running game is deep and Kyle Shanahan will likely feature the hot hand, beginning with breakout star Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. We know what kind of a player tight end George Kittle is and he will be asked to do a lot of heavy lifting during the season, something he certainly can do. There very well could be some famine in the passing game when you look at how the season is starting. The loss of Deebo Samuel is probably bigger than it sounds when you figure he won’t be in the lineup in week one. Jimmy Garropolo is looking to bounce back from some Super Bowl criticism without his best target and will face a pass rusher in Chandler Jones who pummeled quarterbacks in his own right last year. Can guys like rookie Brandon Auyik, role player Kendrick Bourne and other step up until Samuel returns?
Key Stats and Trends
– San Francisco is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus the NFC West
– Arizona is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 road games versus the NFC West
We like the 49ers chances to not be the team that struggles in the season following a Super Bowl defeat. Their defense should carry them to another good record and very possibly a playoff berth and run yet again. When you look at the historical trends and factor in no crowd in the stadium, a touchdown just seems like a few points to many. Even if the Niners do build up a lead in this game, Murray and the Cardinals are the type of team that can backdoor cover their way to cashing in. Expect a somewhat close divisional type game with both teams working off the rust. We’re taking the points here.
BetCrushers Take: Arizona Cardinals +7
49ers 27, Cardinals 23
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (0-0) vs. Denver Broncos (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
10:20pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The final game of the weekend is a late tip in Denver as the Broncos host the Tennesee Titans. This is a better game than we’ve seen in the super-late season openers recently so it will truly be a full weekend of football. There are some really up and coming players on both of these rosters and this game should be a fun one.
The Titans gameplan is not a secret to anyone including the Broncos. Heavy doses of Derrick Henry and let’s see how well you can tackle him in the fourth quarter. Conditioning will be something that could really be a big factor for these defenses having lacked a true offseason. The Broncos defense is not poor against the run, however they were really built more to get after quarterbacks. That could prove an issue against Henry and the running game. If that wasn’t concerning enough, the late loss of defensive leader Von Miller could also pose some challenges with the pass rush. Bradley Chubb can no doubt do his part, but he’s likely going to receive a lot of attention with Miller out of the lineup. With all the talk around Henry, it’s worth reminding everyone that Ryan Tannehill played very well last year reviving his career in Nashville. And we mentioned up and coming players, keep your eyes on A.J. Brown in the passing game. This could be a monstrous season for the physically gifted youngster. Don’t sleep on Johnnu Smith either as it’s his show now with Delanie Walker no longer on the roster.
There is more than one team in this matchup that wants to work their offense through the running game. The Broncos are looking at Melvin Gordon to return to Pro Bowl form as a dual threat back leading this offense. With hard-running Phillip Lindsay playing with him, they can rotate backs to keep fresh legs and power in their own backfield. The Broncos struggled on offense in 2019 so locking horns with a tough Titans defense may seem daunting. Realistically, this is not the same Broncos offense that we saw a year ago for multiple reasons and that’s a good thing if you’re a Denver fan. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton is someone to watch as a breakout star in 2020. Additionally, the team added two potentially game-changing wide receivers in the draft and Jerry Jeudy could wind up being a really good one. Second year tight end Noah Fant is the type of player that can be a matchup problem as well and could benefit from the newly added speed on the outside, although the Titans safeties can lock down tight ends. Let’s wrap this breakdown up by talking about second year quarterback Drew Lock. The jury is out on whether or not he is the answer in Denver, but the team is very high in believing that he is. The Titans are a capable if not spectacular team getting after the quarterback. They’ll be anxious to show off their new defensive signing Jadeveon Clowney who had his best game last season in prime time. With limited knowledge of the playbook and conditioning being a question, he’ll likely be a rotational type player Monday.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 9 of the past 11 Tennessee games
When totals are set low as is the case here, it’s obviously for a reason. The reverse logic tells us that if a total is low, it doesn’t require as much for a number to go over. These teams pride themselves on being tough physical teams that can play good defense, and they are. That doesn’t mean they don’t or can’t score points. Tennessee averaged nearly 26 a game last season and routinely beat the total, and while Denver struggled a little more, they didn’t have the offensive weaponry they have now, and a QB with some experience. It may take the entire 60 minutes, but this one should go over, even with a missed field goal buffer or so. UPDATE – It was just reported Bronco wide receiver Courtland Sutton was taken in for an MRI with a late Thursday practice injury. In full transparency, this wager has not been placed yet and may be adjusted based on Sutton’s availability.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over
Titans 24, Broncos 21
Teaser Bet
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens / Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
vs.
and 
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (0-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Sunday September 13th
1:00pm
CBS
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Sunday September 13th
1:00pm
FOX
Mercedes Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Seattle Seahawks – 3 (-120)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: BALTIMORE -1 and ATLANTA +9
The most appealing part of the first leg of this teaser bet is being able to have the team with the most regular season wins in 2019, simply needing to get a W. The second leg takes us to Atlanta where we’re looking at the Falcons to simply be competitive against a team that has struggled mightily in home openers the last few seasons.
The Baltimore Ravens used a creative offense and the dynamic Lamar Jackson to plow ahead for 14 wins a year ago. Not much has changed when you look at their team offensively with the exception of the team adding another talented running back in J.K. Dobbins in the draft. The return of Myles Garrett on the defensive line helps in their effort to stymie Jackson and this offense. It’s possible to see the Browns holding down the Ravens throwing the football, but we foresee very heavy doses of Mark Ingram and the previously mentioned Dobbins, along of course with Lamar Jackson. There is a lot to like with the Browns offense and they’re going to produce better numbers than they did last season. It’s going to take them a week to get really rolling though as the Ravens defense looks really strong and matches up well with Cleveland. Despite the late release of safety Earl Thomas, their corners can slow down Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry and new weapon Austin Hooper. They’ll also generate enough pressure on Baker Mayfield to not let him get flowing. This will be a hard fought rivalry game and close, but the Ravens will ultimately handle their foe.
In Atlanta a good conference battle of teams with playoff aspirations takes place as the Seahawks take on the Falcons. We’re on record really liking this Seahawks team on offense and defense. They’re a good team, and their leader always finds ways to keep his team in ballgames. With stating what most already know, let’s talk about why we like the Falcons in this spot getting 9 points. For starters, the Seahawks are notoriously slow starters during the season in Wilson’s career. Just look back a year ago to a game they should have lost at home to a lowly Bengals squad. Next, it’s worth noting over the past three seasons this Seahawks team has played nearly as many one possession/score games as any team in the league. They tend to play near their competition, whether that’s a really great team they’re playing or a poor team. From a matchup standpoint there are a few things that look good for the Falcons in this ballgame. A big question mark for the Hawks’ is whether or not they’re going to consistently be able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Their secondary is really good, but so are Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, and Matt Ryan has been as good as any QB we’ve seen when he is not under pressure. On the opposite side, the Falcons defense starts the year healthy, and although they’re not an elite defense, they have enough when healthy to be competitive. They also have some players at linebacker with both familiarity with Russell Wilson and the speed to contain him. Seattle is going to win a lot of games this year and quite possibly this tough road test. Winning by double digits to spoil this teaser seems unlikely so we’re booking it.
Key Stats and Trends
– Cleveland is 4-16 in their last 20 games versus Baltimore
– Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers
– Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers
– Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus Atlanta
– Atlanta is 4-1 ATS and straight up in their last 5 games
This teaser could end up being the prototypical play as we believe the extra six points are going to make the difference. It seems like a coin flip whether or not Baltimore can cover a touchdown against what will be an improved Cleveland team. It seems fairly certain that Baltimore should be able to come away with a victory against a team they own. Similarly, the Seahawks are a better team than the Atlanta Falcons and should be slight favorites to win this game, although that is definitely not a lock. Can this healthy Atlanta team that played better when they had their full roster keep this game within 9 points, that sure seems like a good chance to take as well.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Baltimore -1 and Atlanta +9
Ravens 27, Browns 23 and Seahawks 29, Falcons 27
Teaser Bet
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Houston Texans (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Thursday September 10th
8:25pm
NBC
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -9 (-115)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Sunday September 13th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Indianapolis Colts – 8 (-105)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Hopefully you caught our opening night article where we teased the Chiefs to a -2.5 line with a 6.5 point teaser and haven’t missed the window on this play. We decided to partner that teaser with a team we’re not completely sold on in the Indianapolis Colts. Why you ask would be bet on a team that doesn’t strike our fancy? It’s pretty straightforward, we’re betting against their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: KANSAS CITY -2.5 and INDIANAPOLIS -1.5
There are definitely high hopes in Indianapolis as a team with some strong pieces struggled in crunchtime down the stretch a season ago and missed the playoffs. This year they welcome Philip Rivers as their new signal caller in an effort to recapture the AFC South. While eyes will understandably be on Rivers, it’s actually the running backs for the Colts who will shine on Sunday. Marlon Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor are set up to have some really nice matchups against an overmatched Jaguar defense. There are a couple of big stars still left in Sacksonville in Myles Jack and Josh Allen, as well as some athletic young draft picks, but overall, this unit is going to have trouble against the well coached Colts offensive line.
The offense for the Jags is in a similar situation. We’ve mentioned in offseason podcasts that D.J. Chark is a guy who should have a nice season, and Gardner Minshew is a gamer for sure. That’s just simply not enough to win games in the National Football League without a lot of other help. The Colts should be able to make the Jaguars one-dimensional and that could spell trouble for Minshew and the offense. Outside of Chark, it’s tough to find where the Jaguars might have an advantage when they are on offense. This is a divisional game, and one in which the home team has generally held the advantage, so you can’t completely rule out the upset. This just seems like a game that the Colts can at least escape with a field goal win at the very least.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 3-10 straight up in their last 13 games versus division opponents
If you study the trends in this matchup, this game actually looks like the Jacksonville Jaguars are the bet. The Colts have struggled against the Jaguars and in season openers. Honestly, that is the only reason we’re not playing the Colts laying the big number as we’re anticipating a double digit Indy win. The teaser gives us some protection in case the Colts struggle a bit out of the gate. To reiterate, this is a complete fade of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
