ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs -350
Denver Broncos +750
Los Angeles Chargers +800
Las Vegas Raiders +1000
The division boasting the reigning Super Bowl champions in Kansas City has the longest odds of challengers within. The Broncos, Chargers and Raiders all have reasons to be hopeful, but is there any realistic chance that someone could unseat the Chiefs in 2020? Even if Andy Reid’s group ends up running away with the title, there are plenty of things to watch for with the other three squads.
Denver Broncos
2019 Record – 7-9
2019 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
The team with perhaps the highest ceiling in the league resides in Denver as this Bronco team could surprise a lot of people. The key word there of course being “could”, as much of their success will be predicated on the improvement of second year quarterback Drew Lock. Notice a similar theme in Denver as in Arizona? The interesting twist for this year’s team is that the offense could actually carry them, something that hasn’t happened in quite some time.
Give GM John Elway some credit for working to get his young quarterback some help in his second season. The team selected wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the first and second rounds to play opposite of Courtland Sutton, a player who really started to blossom with the departure of Emmanuel Sanders. Speaking of players who came into their own, TE Noah Fant can be a matchup problem of his own with the rare combination of speed and power. We haven’t even gotten to a what should be a very potent running game headed by Melvin Gordon and pound for pound RB warrior Phillip Lindsay. The offensive line has talent but absolutely needs to play better and not have the mental letdowns that have plagued them. Circle it back to Drew Lock and how he can handle being the man and the pressure that comes with it. Is he finally the franchise quarterback Elway has been desperately searching for?
Although we discussed the offense leapfrogging the defense at the beginning of this breakdown, that doesn’t mean that this is not a capable unit. In fact, this defense still boasts some premier talent and nice additions that will be strong, at least against the pass. Jurrell Casey was a critical piece giving the defensive line a physical presence and support against both the run and the pass. Despite the early 2019 statistical deficiencies, Von Miller and Bradley Chubb can be as good of a 1-2 punch getting after quarterbacks as you’ll find in the league. Not having Chris Harris, Jr. for the first time might seem a little scary, however the team should at least be average on the corners with addition A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan. Justin Simmons had a breakout campaign and next to Kareem Jackson holds down the back at a high level. With the Pro Bowl type talent they have on this team and some exciting draft picks, can this team make a noticeable leap?
2020 Strength of Schedule – 12th (.512)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over -105, under -115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
Don’t be shocked if the Broncos end up with double digit wins and a playoff berth in 2020. We’re backing off that bold prediction on paper though until we can see just how improved this team will be. The lack of a preseason may hurt a team that is counting on some production from young players.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
You won’t find us betting for or against the Broncos early in the season. That may cost some serious value in the opening weeks, but until we see what we get, there seems to not be enough clarity for our taste.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Courtland Sutton (WR), Noah Fant (TE)
The Broncos DST could be a sleeper due to their ability to generate pass rush, however you may want to wait to see how they perform before getting too fascinated by them. Both running backs (Gordon, Lindsay) can get you points and if one or the other goes down the other can be a huge producer. Ultimately, look to a couple of young players that showed some great rapport with Drew Lock towards the end of 2019 in Courtland Sutton and tight end Noah Fant.
Los Angeles Chargers
2019 Record – 5-11
2019 Record Against the Spread – 4-9-3
If there is a team that gets the moniker of “what if” it would have to be the Los Angeles Chargers. It seems that both weekly and each season there are so many of those scenarios that are uncovered with this team. For the first time in over a decade Philip Rivers is not the starting quarterback as the team invested in the future adding Justin Herbert with their first round draft selection. Much like the Broncos, this team is not void of elite talent, although in an early “what if”, the team lost safety Derwin James again with an injury hampering what may have been a top-tier defense.
Veteran Tyrod Taylor will start the season and gives this team a chance to be competitive no matter who they are playing. If you’re not overly familiar with Taylor, he won’t make big mistakes and has the ability to move the chains with his legs when necessary. He may need to do that as the wide receiver group starts the season a little thin with Mike Williams also nursing an injury. Keenan Allen will still be a reliable target and Hunter Henry could be in for a really big season at tight end. With Melvin Gordon no longer on the roster the backfield belongs to Austin Ekeler who somewhat quietly put up some monster numbers when he was called upon. One of the big fantasy football questions of the year is whether or not he can sustain that production as the main workhorse? The offensive line could be a little hit or miss, but having veterans like addition Bryan Bulaga join a group that includes Mike Pouncey and Trai Turner certainly isn’t the worst lineup you’ll see.
Defensively, this team is built with strength on both the inside and outside. They are a nice combination of speed and power with both veteran presence and young and hungry talent. The Chargers should be solid stopping the run with the addition of Linval Joseph in the middle, and we know they have the talent coming off the edges with their leaders Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. If there is a concern it would be in the linebacking corp as they don’t have a lot of proven players. The team did select MLB Kenneth Murray with their first pick in the draft and have slotted him in at the top of the depth chart. The good news with that corp is they are at least pretty deep so they should be able to mix and match their trio to be effective. The loss of James is big and there’s no full way to recover from that in the secondary. The good news is with the addition of Chris Harris, Jr. at the corner playing opposite of Casey Hayward, Jr. they should be able to lock down opposing receivers helping out the safety position.
2020 Strength of Schedule – 23rd (.492)
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -120, under -105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-8
There is clearly some variability with this team in either direction of their odds set 7.5 win total. The Chargers were horrendous against the spread last year and should rebound a bit this year. They’ll continue to be one of the tougher teams to handicap so we’ll figure them around a .500 team heading into the season.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
Early in the season Keenan Allen is going to see a lot of targets in the offense. It’s also likely that Tyrod Taylor will be running often out of the gates. Play their individual over prop totals until the books catch up.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Austin Ekeler (RB), Hunter Henry (TE), Chargers (DST)
Keenan Allen will be a big producer early as we mentioned, but don’t be shocked if his touchdown production dips with Taylor at quarterback. Austin Ekeler should see big volume and can help you win your fantasy league so don’t be afraid to grab him near the top of a draft. Hunter Henry is the most interesting play for this team. Rivers looks to the TE position often and if Henry can fill the long-time role of Antonio Gates he could end up with a lot of targets, particularly in the red zone. Finally, grab this defense in daily fantasy if the matchup is right. They can obliterate opposing quarterbacks and turn them over.
Kansas City Chiefs
2019 Record – 12-4
2019 Record Against the Spread – 10-5-1
We had a pretty clear and obvious analysis of the Chiefs 365 days ago and you could almost copy and paste it as the Super Bowl champs are lined up to basically “run it back” as was tweeted when the team re-signed Chris Jones. There really only appear to be two scenarios that could keep this team from being in Super Bowl contention in 2020. Injuries to key personnel, or flat out lack of interest and discipline throughout the season.
You really can’t mention the word offense without thinking of the Kansas City Chiefs. The speed, talent and production of this offense has the potential to be record-setting with a year under their belts of playing together with Patrick Mahomes. There are a couple of changes, most notably the team selecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be their starting running back. As crazy as it sounds, this will actually upgrade their running game and offense as a whole as CEH is a perfect fit here. Other than this substantial change, you know the drill. Mahomes to Kelce, Hill, Watkins, Hardman, on basic repeat.
The same thing goes for this defense as they remain mostly intact with the critical signing of DT Chris Jones. As badly as they played at the beginning of the 2019 season, they started to really come together in the second half. The cornerbacks on this roster are the glaring opportunity for opponents to try to expose. They can be hidden a bit if Frank Clark can generate the pass rush we’ve seen and the the safeties can cover for some of their deficiencies. Repeating as Super Bowl champions is extremely difficult in the era of free agency so that has to be factored in when evaluating this team.
2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 18th (.500)
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over -115, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-4
Repeating as Super Bowl champions is extremely difficult in the era of free agency so that has to be factored in when evaluating this team. If there were ever a team that has a strong shot to do it though the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs is certainly one. Their team is loaded with speed and talent and they have continuity, something that could be key with a limited offseason. Can Andy Reid keep this team hungry and motivated enough to not have a major letdown? We’re banking on it.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
It may seem like a square wager to look at betting the overs with Kansas City but we’re all in. This team will score 30 with ease each week and more than likely be putting up 40+ with some regularity. Don’t bet the number with these overs, bet the team.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)
Draft Chiefs, it’s that simple. Mahomes, Kelce and Hill should all be early picks and barring injuries will all put up monster numbers again in 2020. You’re probably even ok to go with the next level players in Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. The steal on this team could be Edwards-Helaire as we discussed earlier. He’ll get a lot of red zone touches, will be active in the passing game and teams have to defend the pass against KC, leaving the interior soft for chunks of yardage.
Las Vegas Raiders
2019 Record – 7-9
2019 Record Against the Spread – 8-8
It was a gut-wrenching to see the Raiders finally move to Las Vegas after the official announcement over one year ago. That being said, the excitement for the city of Vegas is huge, despite not allowing fans in the opening season in the super-impressive Star Wars like stadium. From a football standpoint this team is not an embarrassment as they often have been during the 21st century. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have drafted well and Vegas could be a team to be reckoned with sooner rather than later.
In evaluating the offense of the Raiders it’s natural that we would start with quarterback Derek Carr. He is in fact what we view as the eternal conundrum with this team. He’s good enough to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, however he just hasn’t really proven that he can be the type of guy that can carry a franchise. In simpler terms, it’s not easy to replace him and not take a big step backwards initially. With Marcus Mariota on IR to start the season, this is clearly Carr’s team to lead and how successful he is or isn’t this year will likely determine his future in Vegas. The offensive line is solid, although a little older, and he has a powerhouse back with offensive rookie of the year Josh Jacobs to hand the ball to. Darren Waller came out of nowhere to be an absolute monster, and Jason Witten should give the team some nice two tight end option sets. The team addressed it’s biggest need taking Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs III at WR and they’ll hope he can instantly provide the explosiveness they were lacking.
The Oakland defense drafted Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby to be an edge rushing tandem in last year’s draft. Many so called experts felt these were reaches, yet both players contributed and played very well as rookies. In a move that didn’t garner a lot of national attention, Cory Littleton came over from the Rams to play middle linebacker. In a division where all three opponents like to throw to the running back, having Littleton is a huge signing that Mayock deserves some credit on. The starters in the secondary are young, but skilled, and they have the depth to play against teams that run multi-receiver sets.
2020 Strength of Schedule – 21st (.496)
Team Win Total Odds – 7 Wins (over -130, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
Even though the Raiders should be a better team this year, the other teams in their division should be as well. We’re figuring another mediocre season with some competitive football, ups and downs, and around a .500 record.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
We won’t know how the Raiders fare in their new home stadium for a few months. What we do know is that this team is woefully bad on the road over the past handful of seasons. You can assume that trend will continue and even getting points won’t help them cover when they’re traveling across the country.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Josh Jacobs (RB), Darren Waller (TE)
Look for a 1200 yard 8 TD type of season from Josh Jacobs. Darren Waller should also continue the Raider string of good tight end production partnered with Derek Carr. Both of these guys are pretty obvious and need to be in your lineups if possible.
