What an insane finish to the AL Central race between a hard-charging Guardians squad and the leaking oil down the freeway Tigers. This well-documented reversal of fortune began on July 9th as Detroit steadily relinquished a 15.5 game lead over Cleveland. Even more wild is how the Tigers’ lead was still 11 games as the calendars flipped to September! Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins completely broke down and sold off parts while the White Sox steadily plodded their way to a surprisingly easy win total cash. All while the Royals failed to capitalize on the momentum from the 2024 season. It’s a three horse race in 2026 and none of the contenders are the clear cut favorite.

The 2026 MLB season ushers in The BetCrushers’ 7th Annual Division Preview series. We look for value in the futures markets in this labor of love, especially regular season win totals. We appreciate all of our faithful and new readers! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)

2025 Division Winner: Cleveland Guardians

2025 AL Central Final Standings

1. Cleveland Guardians (88-74)
2. Detroit Tigers (87-75)
3. Kansas City Royals (82-80)
4. Minnesota Twins (70-92)
5. Chicago White Sox (60-102)

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Cleveland Guardians 2026 Win Total: Open 80.5, Now 78.5

2025 Result: Over 83 (88-74 / Pythag: 80)

The Guardians have now claimed three division crowns in the past four seasons behind win totals of 88, 92, and 92. Just as impressive is how their skipper earned Manager of the Year honors in each of them. Between the legend Terry Francona and current boss Stephen Vogt, this club is one of the better coached ones year after year. They do more with less just about as well as anyone other than the Milwaukee Brewers. But the divisional competition has upped the ante this winter. Can Cleveland fend off its challengers without much offseason roster activity?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• S Armstrong (RP-R)
• C Holderman (RP-R)
• C Brogdon (RP-R)

Subtractions:

• E Clase (RP-R)
• L Ortiz (SP-R)
• J Junis (RP-R)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 74 – 81

— Bullpen —

Once again, the bullpen was the standout group of the Cleveland Guardians. Their 47 saves and 37-24 record are especially impressive given the general lack of run support the lineup provided. Granted, Cleveland’s starting pitchers did their relievers a solid by shouldering the second most innings behind Philadelphia’s formidable rotation. Minimizing exposure to the weakest parts of the bullpen boosts the rate stats that directly translated to results. Case in point, this crew ranked top five in the following key areas:

• 47 saves
• 24.6% K
• 3.44 ERA
• 3.49 FIP
• 6.6 WAR

Translating Success From One Season To the Next

The Guardians bullpen boasted the 3rd lowest home run rate (0.81 HR/9 innings) – a factor that can bounce around from year to year. Adjusting for this pushes their xFIP up about a half-run to 4.01. Even so, this home run-adjusted metric still ranked 6th last year. Seems like I’m splitting hairs to find a negative with this group, right? Pretty much. Gauging how good they will be in 2026 now comes down to the quality of arms on the roster.

Translating this bullpen across seasons comes with an obvious asterisk in former closer Emmanuel Clase. Their elite reliever was exiled from the MLB due to his involvement in a foolish gambling scheme also involving teammate Luis Ortiz. That put both pitchers out of commission at the end of July. Fortunately, second year player Cade Smith was next in line for the job and delivered somewhat successfully with another 30%+ strikeout rate resulting in a 2.93 ERA and 1.95 FIP/2.65 xFIP. The 26-year-old righty has really good command and electric secondaries to lead this group moving forward. The cautionary note across Smith’s projections is an outlandishly stingy home run rate that should tick up again in 2026. Regardless, two straight 70+ inning seasons of impressive work bodes well for Clase’s replacement.

CLE Relief Pitching Performance, by Period (2025)

	IP	K/BB	ERA	FIP/xFIP	WAR
Thru 7/26	365.1	2.51	3.72	3.71/4.23	3.4
7/27 Onward	188.2	3.83	2.91	3.08/3.58	3.2
Season	554.0	2.87	3.44	3.49/4.01	6.6

Maybe it was coincidence how the bullpen really stepped things up after Clase’s final appearance on July 26. Cleveland’s remaining relievers produced MLB-best ERA, FIP, and WAR to close out the season. Plus their K/BB ratio ranked second behind the Cubs. As we all know via hindsight, the bullpen delivered in lock step as the Guards as a whole turned up the intensity across all facets of their game to snag the division title from the floundering Tigers.

Last year’s preview noted that “banking on insane numbers from multiple high-leverage pitchers again is a tough ask” (Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin). All four pitched 40+ innings in relief. All four had ERA increases of at least one run from 2024 to 2025. These adjustments were easily foreseen, yet the results were still top tier. Smith was home run immune as a rookie, Gaddis also had a depressed home run rate in addition to a .205 BABIP, and the lefty Herrin had similar characteristics as Gaddis in 2024.

Is This the Year?

First and foremost, Emmanuel Clase is out of the picture. The 27-year-old showed some signs of decline last season but the loss of an established elite closer hurts the bullpen nonetheless. The remaining high-leverage pair Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis can still be potent but the latter’s outlook is less eye-popping. Projections lean more towards last year’s 3.69 xFIP as Gaddis’ stuff isn’t quite as overpowering as Smith’s. Journeyman reliever Shawn Armstrong returns to the club that drafted him 15 years ago as a sub-4.00 righty whose solid arsenal helps avoid hard contact.

Cleveland conceivably loses 124.1 innings from free agents Jakob Junis and Kolby Allard at 2.97 and 2.65 ERA, respectively. The Guards did sign Allard to a Minor League deal, so he is not completely out of the organization. Both represent good volume and great effectiveness in need of replacement. Newer faces Erik Sabrowski and Matt Festa return with Tim Herrin as middle relievers with upper-3.00s stuff. Connor Brogdon and Colin Holderman join the fray as depth pieces in case budding starters Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick join the rotation. Undoubtedly, Stephen Vogt has options to fill out a strong bullpen in 2026. Without Emmanuel Clase to lean on, however, the job of pulling the right strings becomes that much tougher. Depending on how many innings the rotation eats this season, look for Cleveland’s bullpen to shed 2-4 wins from 2024.

— Rotation —

We’ve established just how important the starting pitchers’ workload was to the bullpen. They tacked on 83.0 more innings and lowered their overall ERA by more than a half run, down to 3.86. This ranked 10th best in the MLB, outpacing more pedestrian aspects like 19th best strikeout and walk rates at 21.7 and 8.8%, respectively. You can see those effects in their slightly below average 4.24 FIP and 4.20 xFIP. Although these negatives are modest in a bubble, the entire package accounted for just shy of four wins of increased value from 2024 to 2025.

All five starting pitchers projected to be on the Opening Day roster were key contributors in the 2025 rotation. In fact, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and Slade Cecconi made 20+ starts and logged 132.0+ innings last year. Luis Ortiz is the notable absence, having made 16 starts with a 4.36 ERA and 4.18 FIP/3.83 xFIP. Cleveland’s projected #5 starter, left-hander Joey Cantillo, spent the first couple months of the season in the bullpen before taking Ortiz’ spot in the rotation. That paid off for the Guardians in spades as Cantillo made 13 starts of 2.96 ERA quality.

A Hearty Welcome Back

All three of Bibee, Williams, and Allen are entering their fourth MLB seasons as pure starters. Here’s what to look for with these established pitchers in 2026:

• Tanner Bibee (R) led the team in innings pitched (182.1) at nearly 6 innings/start, gradually ratcheting up his workload since debuting in 2023. A broad arsenal and good command put him right around the 4.00 mark and 2+ WAR.
• Gavin Williams (R) worked around injury in 2024 before delivering a reassuring 31 starts in 2025. The ground ball contact pitcher has a quality arsenal like Bibee and also projects solidly around 4.00 for 2+ WAR.
• Logan Allen (L) bounced up-and-down from the minors in 2024 before settling in with a 4.25 ERA and 4.37 FIP/4.72 xFIP in 2025. He is on the rotation bubble this year if/when Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick rise to the occasion.

Without external reinforcements, Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo must play larger roles. Cecconi’s main drawback is the long ball and the lack of killer stuff to get key strikeouts. Greater upside lies with Cantillo as a more productive strikeout pitcher balanced by a 10% walk rate. The southpaw’s redeeming nature is avoiding home runs, to which most projections believe he can keep in check moving forward. Plus Parker Messick is in the queue after making 7 starts as a rookie, garnering 4.00+ expectations while gaining valuable on-the-job training.

Aside from Parker Messick, things are somewhat quiet on the farm. Daniel Espino has work to do after missing more than two full seasons due to injury and Khai Stephen is a year away from being MLB-ready. Austin Peterson is the one most likely to get the nod at some point in 2026 to backfill the bullpen and possibly get a handful of starts.

I’ve seen conversation about Cleveland’s rotation reaching even higher than it did in 2025. There aren’t any truly dominant arms in the mix, though the Gavin Williams/Tanner Bibee duo should deliver another 350 innings to anchor the group. Below them are a variety of 1+ WAR arms still looking to establish a reliable track record. I like the upside that Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick bring to the table, but without further additions anticipate a similar overall level in 2026.

— Position Players —

Most impressive about the Guardians’ come from behind division title is the lineup’s worst production in at least a decade. 168 home runs were enough to stay out of the league’s bottom third. However, their general lack of baserunners helped lead to the 3rd least runs (643) in the Majors. In fact, that was Cleveland’s lowest run tally in a 162-game season since 1991. Even the strike-shortened 1994 season was more prolific at 679 runs in just 113 games. To be fair, the 2025 club certainly did not have names like Belle, Lofton, Thome, Alomar, and Manny Ramirez packing a punch for it.

Each of their three slash line components (.226/.296/.373) ranked 28th or 29th, underlying Cleveland’s lack of getting on base and moving runners with extra base hits. That didn’t stop them from stealing 129 bases at a 79.7% rate though. Not surprising is the Guards’ highest OBP hitters Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan stole just more than half of those bases (65). At the end of the day, base running and defense kept the position player corps from falling too far down the ranks with the MLB’s 24th highest 13.2 WAR.

The Pillars of the Position Player Group

While the Guards search for answers at several positions, there is more certainty than not with the aforementioned Ramirez-Kwan pairing. Jose continues to hold his ground at third base at the ripe age of 33. Elite plate discipline, heads up base running, and a 30-home run bat are the 7x All-Star and 6x Silver Slugger’s hallmarks. Ramirez is still set up for another plus-25% season at the plate that should easily keep him in 4+ WAR territory.

Steven has seven fewer seasons under his belt and a less potent bat. Yet he’s contributed 3+ WAR in each of his four MLB seasons. Did last year’s wrist injury hold him back at the plate? Or is the contact hitter settling into a league average profile with plus fielding and base running attributes? Kwan has the most variance in his projections, putting this duo on 6-8 WAR after last year’s combined 9.5.

25-year-old Kyle Manzardo rose to the occasion in season two, improving plate discipline and displaying more power. The left-handed hitter swung more at pitches inside the zone and made a lot more contact at those outside the zone. Now he’s putting on more muscle in anticipation of an even bigger 2026. With Carlos Santana out of the picture, Manzardo takes on full time duties at first base. His fielding pales in comparison to Santana’s +11 DRS/+5 FRV in 820.1 innings prior to his trade to the Cubs. In fact, this may be the tail that wags the dog’s tail when it comes to Cleveland’s net defensive change. Regardless, Kyle established a solid baseline at 113 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR that should translate well into 2026.

Rebooting the Lineup…

Cleveland’s top prospect Chase DeLauter stands at the head of the class of exciting young players graduating to the Major Leagues. The 24-year-old technically debuted in the Wild Card Series after spending the regular season slashing .264/.379/.473 in the Minors. This squad desperately needs an infusion of talent into the center field spot. Last year’s group headed up by Angel Martinez amassed a league-worst -1.3 WAR on 60 wRC+ and subpar fielding. DeLauter enters the 2026 campaign with expectations for an average bat and solid defense – considerable upgrades in both facets with Martinez playing the short side role. Staying healthy may be Chase’s most important task for the season ahead.

The middle infield equation is a complicated one to say the least. Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias shared time at second base and shortstop, producing identical 77 wRC+ figures that leave much to be desired. Rocchio projects for a touch more improvement offensively versus his better fielding counterpart. However, neither have truly cemented themselves as the Guardians’ long term options up the middle. Arias hits the ball hard but on the ground and strikes out more than 30% of the time. Rocchio is a lighter contact hitter without much to show for in his young career.

Second base prospect Travis Bazzana is the one to watch in Spring Training with DeLauter essentially locked into the 26-man roster. The 23-year-old was set back by injury last year, possibly delaying his debut into the summer – a disappointment given the struggles of Rocchio and Arias. Plus Cleveland’s new shortstop of the future Angel Genao has a little longer runway until he is ready for The Show. In the meantime, solid defender Daniel Schneeman and prospect Juan Brito are the next level of depth that may need tapped if the incumbents continue to struggle.

…While Working With What You’ve Got

This was a team of several very strong fielders and a handful of really bad ones. Still, the net result was another top defense that ranked 7th by DRS and 4th by FRV. Some of this success is attributed to the one-two punch behind the plate. Fortunately, the combination of Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges returns for a third straight season together. What they lacked in offense (72 wRC+) is made up for with defense (+10 DRS/+14 FRV). Those strong fielding values ranked 4th and 3rd, respectively, while their offense came in at 25th. The veteran Hedges won’t give you much at the plate, though Naylor should tack on another 10% after suffering through a .222 BABIP.

A committee approach to right field appears in the cards between George Valera, CJ Kayfus, and Johnathan Rodriguez, with Chase DeLauter possibly in support. Rodriguez is the bigger defensive liability of the three but may be needed as the short-side platoon bat. That said, right field was a weak spot of this quality defense and may not see improvement with this crop of corner outfielders. Stephen Vogt will have to sort through these options as the season progresses, mixing in Kayfus and Valera as a left-handed hitting complement to David Fry in the DH spot that gets weaker with Kyle Manzardo as the primary first baseman.

Needless to say, there is plenty yet to be determined in the middle infield and right field. The abundance of unproven talent on the roster is a double-edged sword. Once you adjust last year’s win total by the 80 pythagorean wins (643 runs scored, 69 runs against), Cleveland’s overall projection is less stellar than where the club left off last September. Our offensive outlook at this point before the start of Spring Training is a positive one between 3-4%. It may be a cliche but still applicable: the door is wide open in the AL Central.

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Detroit Tigers 2026 Win Total: Open 86.5

2025 Result: Over 84 (87-75 / Pythag: 88)

Tigers fans experienced one hell of a roller coaster last September between the epic division race collapse and subsequently getting revenge in the playoffs. This was the first team in the MLB to reach 50 wins, after all. Consolation to a heartbreaking loss in the ALDS came soon as their ace was named the American League’s ace once again. Tarik Skubal was excellent and the offense carried its weight for the first time in quite a few years. But it just wasn’t enough to get past the Seattle Mariners in a series where they went the distance with a tough foe.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• F Valdez (SP-L)
• K Jansen (RP-R)

Subtractions:

• A Ibanez (INF)
• C Paddack (SP-R)
• R Montero (RP-R)
• T Kahnle (RP-R)
• J Malloy (OF)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 86 – 88

— Rotation —

There’s no better place to start the Detroit Tigers preview than with repeat AL Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal. Since getting through flexor tendon surgery in late 2022 and rehabbing well into 2023, the 29-year-old southpaw has become the measuring stick for MLB starting pitchers. Each of the last three seasons yielded strikeout rates over 30%, sub-5% walk rates, 40%+ ground ball rates, and sub-3.00 ERA, FIP, xFIP, and pretty much whatever runs/9 metric they can come up with. Oh yeah, the last two full seasons have been of the 31-start, 190+ inning variety worth 6+ WAR.

As a whole, the rotation logged 814.1 innings. Although it marked a positive step for the team, this total ranked just 22nd in the MLB. 13.8 WAR ranked 7th, although Skubal’s 6.6 WAR represents nearly half of that accumulation. Keep in mind this is a recurring theme with other categories like strikeout and walk rates, ERA, FIP, and xFIP.

Tarik Skubal really warps the team’s overall starting pitching evaluation. Aside from their ace, only two Detroit pitchers racked up more than 15 starts and/or 70+ innings. To be fair, Reese Olson bowed out mid-season with a right shoulder strain and Jackson Jobe fell to Tommy John surgery in June. Jack Flaherty was reliable enough to call on every five days, although his depth of start dipped back to 2023 levels after reaching 5.79 innings/start last season. And despite having a rough summer, Casey Mize achieved several career bests after missing so much time to injury since breaking onto the scene with Skubal in 2020 and 2021.

A Big Shot In the Arm

One way to bolster the rotation is to snag of the biggest fish in the free agent pitching pond. Longtime Houston starter Framber Valdez inked a 3-year/$115M deal on the heels of four straight seasons valued at 3.7 WAR or better. His lone sub-4.0 WAR campaign in 2024 was the only one that did not cross the 190-inning threshold. What makes the heavy ground ball southpaw great is being very good in multiple departments. Career 2.75 K/BB ratio, 0.72 home runs/9 innings, 3.36 ERA, and 3.51 FIP/3.34 xFIP are reasonable baselines for the season ahead.

Flaherty and Mize are quality #3 & #4 pitchers with 2+ WAR projections. Both stand to produce right around the 4.00 mark with 160+ inning targets. Although the more, the merrier when it comes to bulking up workloads. Not to oversimplify matters but Jack’s effectiveness boils down to managing his headspace and keeping the walk rate south of 10%. He and Casey get hit hard at times; keeping the ball on the ground is a partial remedy to this issue. While Reese Olson should ready for Spring Training, the promising 23-year-old Jackson Jobe is effectively out for the regular season. The right-handed Olson shares ground ball and hard contact characteristics with the two noted above, earning him projections around 4.00. It’s tough to dislike this trio of 2-3 WAR starters coupled with Skubal and Valdez on top.

Injury concerns pepper the 2026 rotation, though Framber Valdez coming on board lessens the overall impact. Just look at how injuries required manager AJ Hinch to turn to Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack for 16 starts last year. That came at the steep cost of ERAs well north of 6.00. Unfortunately, the Tigers’ pipeline is skewed towards position players. Keider Montero adds flexible depth between the rotation and bullpen, albeit in mid-4.00s fashion. Yet there is hope that rookie Troy Melton settles in as a 4.00+ contact pitcher who can make 20 starts if needed. Additional options include Drew Anderson in his return from Asia as well as Sawyer Gipson-Long, who has yet to establish a solid track record in the MLB. Valdez settles multiple concerns for the Tigers rotation, helping to add 2-4 wins of value over 2025.

— Bullpen —

Detroit’s relievers were less effective on the whole when compared to previous years. The bullpen’s 1.4 WAR paled in comparison to 2024’s 4.0, partially due to a lessened workload from 694.0 to 622.0 IP. That’s a fair tradeoff. Yet you would think that less usage would increase effectiveness. But the root issues behind last year’s slump boil down to fewer strikeouts and higher top-line numbers. The Tigers pen lost about 2% from its 2024 strikeout rate and was nearly 3% off of 2022 and 2023. Combining the MLB’s 2nd lowest K rate with a subpar walk rate pushed the group’s ERA (4.05), FIP (4.32) and xFIP (4.22) back above 4.00.

Will Vest continued to be manager AJ Hinch’s go-to reliever, ratcheting up strikeouts (26.4%) by improving the quality of all four pitches. Unfortunately, Vest’s 1.8 WAR overshadowed the entire bullpen’s value. Lefties Tyler Holton and Brant Hurter were multi-inning guys with varying degrees of success – Holton’s sudden home run inflation notwithstanding. The problem underlying the 2025 bullpen was the lack of true high-leverage arms to rely on week after week. Free agent veteran Tommy Kahnle failed to add oomph but trade deadline acquisition Kyle Finnegan thrived in Motown (1.50 ERA, 1.97 FIP/2.10 xFIP) after a rough first half in Washington.

Adding Much-Needed Horsepower

Re-signing career sub-4.00 reliever Kyle Finnegan was a good start this winter. Then the Tigers turned to 38-year-old stalwart Kenley Jansen, who will start the season with a fourth different club since leaving the Dodgers in 2021. Michael Baumann of FanGraphs.com broke down the veteran’s current arsenal and how he’s managed to stay relevant in leverage situations. Assuming Kenley doesn’t pay the piper too harshly for 2025’s .195 BABIP, Baumann notes that Vest should be freed up “to be the guy who comes in with a runner on first to get a double play.” Be skeptical of Jansen as the bullpen’s silver bullet due to his declining strikeout numbers and climbing hard contact.

On paper there looks to be enough beef in the bullpen to avoid the revolving door of a year ago. Tommy Kahnle is the biggest loss, though primarily from a volume standpoint (63.0 IP) and not effectiveness (4.43 ERA, 4.72 FIP/4.66 xFIP). The better half of this group could be much worse and should contribute another win or two of value via improved depth.

— Position Players —

As I alluded to in the intro, Detroit’s offense was more potent than it has been in recent history. This is a relative statement considering 103 wRC+, 758 runs scored, and 198 home runs each rated 10th or 11th in the MLB. Despite running the bases better than the average team, the Tigers attempted only 77 stolen bases but converted 79.2% of those attempts. And the good news is pretty much everyone on the 2025 position player side of the roster returns for more.

As the above season-long progression plot shows, the lineup started strong – despite those cold spring months in Michigan – then steadily tailed off through the second half. Detroit went from a 7th highest 108 wRC+ in the first half to the 21st highest after the All-Star Break. Decent correlation with the club losing its grip on the division lead, one could say. And it wasn’t just a couple of the lineup’s key hitters who lost their edge through the summer. We’re talking about five staples who slipped at least 26% between the two halves.

DET Selected Hitters, wRC+ Change by Half (2025)

	Season	1H	2H	∆ 1H – 2H
R Greene	121	141	90	51
Z McKinstry	114	132	81	51
G Torres	113	131	88	43
C Keith	109	118	92	26
W Perez	103	126	90	36
J Baez	86	108	46	62

Last year’s big free agent acquisition Gleyber Torres experienced a large decline that many point to a hernia injury for explanation. Surgery went well and the Tigers’ second baseman was cleared for baseball activities in mid-December. As for the others, long slumps are known to happen. Torres returns on a one-year deal and could be joined by another former Yankee, outfielder Jahmai Jones. The 28-year-old was called up on June 6th, saw action as a bench bat, then earned more time in AJ Hinch’s lineup after the Break. Projections are justifiably skeptical of repeating his 159 wRC+ though. Regardless, Jones represents an upgrade over Justyn-Henry Malloy as a short-side platoon outfielder.

Evening Things Out

The Tigers were anything but middling against left-handed pitching last year, posting the 2nd highest wRC+ against southpaws (114). Unfortunately, they faced right-handed pitching 2.5x more frequently to the tune of the 19th highest wRC+ (98). This is where left-handed hitters Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith excelled alongside turnaround story Spencer Torkelson. Tork broke out in 2023, struggled in 2024, then seemingly came out of nowhere after a torrid Spring Training (.340/.389/.680). No BABIP shenanigans, just good old fashioned hard contact and a better approach at the plate. Depending on source, the 26-year-old should retain most of his 2.3 WAR but a slight dip in power numbers is in the cards.

Aside from hitting consistently well throughout the upcoming season, the club truly needs to perform better with its strong-side splits. Key contributors against righties Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith are all expected to hold serve with similar production and valuations. Zach McKinstry and Wenceel Perez, not so much. Left-handed hitter Parker Meadows could be a catalyst for improvement in this sense…if he can stay on the field. In 2024, Meadows gave us a glimpse of what could be via a .244/.310/.433 line as well as plus defense and base running.

Negative regression staring down several lineup spots is the big headwind facing the Tigers. Minor shakeups via Jahmai Jones and key prospects in the Minors – notably Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark – may be needed for a much-needed spark as the season progresses. Who knows, former prospect Jace Jung might find his way back to The Show. With any offseason infusions the Detroit lineup likely reverts back towards league-average production in 2026.

Playing the Field

Detroit continued to stay on the positive side of things defensively despite our expectations for Jake Rogers and Trey Sweeney to maintain their strong fielding grades. Although that did not come to fruition, the team’s overall defensive ratings ranged from solid (+36 DRS) to average (+3 FRV) with catcher Dillon Dingler leading a squad full of decent fielders. Colt Keith and Riley Greene have room for improvement, though the latter more than makes up for this shortcoming with his bat. I don’t see much of a reason to move this defense downward or to improve it, for that matter.

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Kansas City Royals 2026 Win Total: Open 81.5, Now 82.5

2025 Result: Under 82.5 (82-80 / Pythag: 83)

Compared to just a few years ago, an 82-win season is actually respectable for the Royals. Coming off of 2024’s second place AL Central finish and their first playoff appearance since the 2015 World Series Championship, well, that’s another story. The Royals treaded water over the last couple months and was never in the division race down the stretch. If the markets expect more of the same in 2026, what could possibly move this team’s needle?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• N Mears (RP-R)
• I Collins (OF)
• L Thomas (OF)
• A Lange (RP-R)
• M Strahm (RP-L)

Subtractions:

• M Lorenzen (SP-R)
• MJ Melendez (OF)
• A Zerpa (RP-L)
• T Clarke (RP-R)
• M Yastrzemski (OF)
• A Frazier (UTL)
• J Bowlan (RP-R)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 80 – 86

— Rotation —

Freshly extended manager Matt Quatraro will have a familiar cast of characters in his 2026 rotation. That’s a good thing considering how they continued to eat innings, just with a bit less effectiveness from their dominant 2024 season. Kansas City’s starting pitchers added a quarter run of ERA as their K/BB ratio slipped from 3.17 to 2.80. As we noted last winter, their top three starters – Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha – set such a high bar that ended up too tough to repeat. This was a key part in the Royals not meeting the expectations spilling over from 2024.

Even so, the Royals weathered the loss of rotation staple Brady Singer to Cincinnati and ace Cole Ragans to two IL stints. The 28-year-old Ragans should be clear of any lingering issues and back in prime form – good news, especially considering his innings count sunk to 61.2 innings due to injury. He never found his groove among the disruptions and finished the season with a 4.67 ERA and 2.50 FIP/2.45 xFIP. Yet the stuff was still top notch. A healthy Cole Ragans is a low-3.00s, 4+ WAR ace many teams would love to have heading up their staffs.

A Sturdy Foundation

Veterans Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are back in the saddle after combining for 57 starts, 318.0 IP, and 4.1 WAR. Wacha carried the load with 5 more starts and an ERA about one third of a run lower than Lugo’s. Seth punched well above his weight class in 2024, only to finish 2025 with a 4.15 ERA and 5.09 FIP/4.53 xFIP. That’s just more one run higher than 2024’s 3.00 ERA.

Both of these right-handers face potential home run regression in opposite directions; Lugo’s rebound should be stronger coming down from a career-high 1.67 HR/9 innings. The caveat I’ll add to this improvement is uncertainty with Seth getting a grip on his fastball. Regaining command is the bottom line here. Michael Wacha is just one of those crafty broad arsenal guys whose changeup is about as effective as they come. Projections for a similar combined yield as last season make sense given their hi-lo 2025s. Plus you have to figure these mid-30s pitchers will miss at least 4-5 games between the two of them.

With Even More Reinforcements

Kris Bubic’s successful return from Tommy John surgery continued in bittersweet fashion last year. The 28-year-old parlayed his 2024 resurgence out of the bullpen (2.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP/2.04 xFIP) into a 2.55 ERA and 2.89 FIP/3.63 xFIP back in the rotation. The bitter ending came via rotator cuff strain that ended the 2025 season after 20 starts. Trade rumors surrounded Bubic this winter but he has yet to move, possibly because of the injury risk that clouds his future.

Prospect Noah Cameron graduated in a big way, proving his 1-hit, 6.1 IP debut was anything but a fluke. The 26-year-old’s calling card in the Minors was plus command, undoubtedly helping the rookie compile 138.1 innings over 24 starts. Regression is the standard call when the right signs are present. A 2.99 ERA opposes his .241 BABIP, 4.18 FIP/4.10 xFIP, and 4.33 SIERA. Even still, 4.00 is a good starting point for a successful season two in a Brady Singer-esque fashion.

Enough reputable opinions say tread lightly with innings projections for most everybody in the 2026 rotation. That makes depth even more important. Fortunately, K.C. has options. Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, and Bailey Falter are dice rolls to a degree. Not that it’s a bad thing. Bergert and Kolek came over from San Diego last summer, fitting the 4.00+ mold as types that don’t necessarily overwhelm you but are complemented well by a very good infield behind them. They are suitable replacements for Michael Lorenzen, whose prime contribution was 140.2 innings over 26 starts – apparently K.C.’s sweet spot for starting pitcher expectation. It came with a 4.67 ERA that their mid-rotation guys should easily best. The verdict: a similar valuation for 2026 with upside if major injuries are avoided.

— Position Players —

After finally getting somewhere in 2024, the Royals’ offense took a small step back into bottom third territory. They hit for average decently (.247) but failed to score runs, falling from 735 to 651 between the two seasons. Part of the equation was 11 fewer home runs, another was their diminished success on the bases. K.C. went from being a top ten running team to 21st via 23 fewer stolen bases at a 72.5% success rate well below league average. Remember, this is a club that swiped bags at a 81.2% clip in 2024. To say that the offense was disappointing is an understatement.

Kansas City’s slow offensive start came as the likes of MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, and Freddy Fermin were stuck in first gear. All three eventually found themselves elsewhere – MJ and Hunter sent to the minors then released, Freddy traded to the Padres – opening the door for others to gain playing time. Even so, their former #1 prospect Jac Caglianone really struggled (.157/.237/.295) after his June call-up. The young left-handed hitter smashed the ball without much to show for it (.172 BABIP). Look for the slugger to show an improved approach in Spring Training yielding fewer ground balls as a sign of what’s to come this season. Otherwise, the outfield could again be a drag on the offense.

Building On Their Strong Points

The shining stars atop the Kansas City lineup return in full force. Back-to-back Gold Glover and Silver Slugger Bobby Witt Jr. continued to shine with another elite season at shortstop. The 25-year-old followed up his insane 2024 campaign with a remarkable .295/.351/.501 line, 23 home runs, and 38 stolen bases. Projections are generally skeptical of Witt being an 8.0-WAR player again, though most sources call for 6.0 as a floor without much degradation to his underlying skills.

However, it was third baseman Maikel Garcia who turned out to be the Royals’ big revelation of 2025. After two seasons battling through the BABIP see-saw, we may have finally seen what this kid can do. Career-bests include 160 games played, 666 PA, 74 RBI, 9.3% walk rate, and 12.6% strikeout rate leading to a quality .286/.351/.449 slash line. His 5.6 WAR was by far the highest in his short career. That was enough to earn Garcia a five-year contract extension with a club option for 2031. Now the Royals have their young left side of the infield locked up for years to come. It’s tough to expect that 2025 level of play to persist, though a 10% offensive markdown still leaves him as a 3+ WAR player. Much of Maikel’s improvement resulted from offseason strength training and refined mechanics so I am less inclined to slash his outlook.

First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino was no slouch either. First and foremost, Pasquatch stayed healthy and sustained his power numbers as the season went on. The main points of emphasis for improvement in 2026 are strikeouts and curbing his slide against left-handed pitching. Worst case, Vinnie platoons some with El Capitan Salvador Perez against tough lefties. Otherwise, the 28-year-old is poised for another plus-15% campaign in season five with the Royals.

Snagging the Low Hanging Fruit

Last offseason’s trade of consequence dealt Brady Singer from their pitching stockpile to the Reds for second baseman Jonathan India. This worked out well for Cincinnati while the early returns for K.C. were iffy. The former NL Rookie of the Year posted career lows across his .233/.323/.346 line that culminated in a 89 wRC+. Word on the street is India will work primarily at second base with some time in the designated hitter slot. He’s had seasons with nearly level splits, though another platoon arrangement makes sense if Michael Massey digs out of his lows. It should not take much to boost this position group above replacement level by 1-2 wins.

Left field was a black hole of talent “worth” -0.7 WAR. The revolving door may have closed after the trade with Milwaukee that returned switch hitter Isaac Collins. Even if the 28-year-old slips to a league average bat with a bias toward right-handed pitching, he’ll be a marked improvement over the 2025 group that slumped to a collective 75 wRC+. Kansas City also took a flier on Lane Thomas after an injury-marred season in Cleveland. His bat projects about 10% below average but should be a serviceable fourth outfielder in a platoon role for Collins and/or glove-first centerfielder Kyle Isbel.

The backstop tandem of Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin gives way to a new junior member, 22-year-old Carter Jensen. After trading Fermin, Jensen made his mark as a rookie, albeit in a limited 20 games. As much as K.C. would love for him to carry that 159 wRC+ through the 2026 campaign, the reality is somewhere in the league average range. Jensen’s receiving skills are a work in progress and likely to fall short of Fermin’s plus work behind the plate. This is a concern if Salvy grades out poorly again this season.

Where the Rubber Meets the Road

2024’s offense was a tease in retrospect. Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia put up massive numbers last year but were generally let down by the rest of the lineup. As for 2026, these two bedrocks plus Vinnie Pasquantino should get reinforcements to prime the pump. Top prospect graduates Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone must step up as pivotal secondary contributors while Jonathan India, Isaac Collins, and Lane Thomas shore up other weak spots. The Royals’ overall fielding may tick down but not noticeably pending the results of Perez and Garcia. Most importantly, the offense should improve by 1-3% as the supporting cast makes incremental gains.

— Bullpen —

In many ways, last year’s bullpen shaped up like the year before. Their 6th best 3.63 ERA finally dipped below its FIP, resulting in a 35-25 record with 47 saves at a 70.2% conversion rate. Top performers Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg were valued at a combined 2.0 WAR via sub-3.00 ERAs and 127.1 IP over 128 appearances. Estevez’ pitch quality dipped a bit as he turned 33, raising concerns that the 3.67 FIP/4.95 xFIP brings his production level back down to reality. The hard-throwing Erceg had a small setback with his throwing shoulder; however, he still projects comfortably under the 4.00 threshold.

The southpaw component of the high-leverage group shifts from Angel Zerpa to Matt Strahm. Zerpa was sent to Milwaukee after a 4.31 ERA in 67 appearances. Conversely, Strahm comes from Philadelphia in exchange for middle reliever Jonathan Bowlan, who is replaced by former Brewer Nick Mears. Stick with me here. The important takeaway is the upgrade that Strahm represents without losing much across these exchanges.

Workhorse John Schreiber returns alongside former starter Daniel Lynch IV and depth via the starting pitcher queue. Carlos Estevez’ declining profile leaves the door open for another lockdown option inside the organization, or even via mid-season acquisition in the right circumstances. Lucas Erceg could take on a larger share of closer duties if Carlos falters. Otherwise, look for another decent bullpen supporting a winning team that should be in the wild card conversation again.

WAGER: Royals Over 81.5 Wins

Is there enough improvement from this lineup to move the needle for a few extra wins? Where we have our money certainly gives off that impression. While our early numbers thought a bit more highly than where updated projections stand today, I’d like to think my first impression is my best one after all these years. As for the fate of the Royals, only time will tell.

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Minnesota Twins 2026 Win Total: Open 71.5, Now 73.5

2025 Result: Under 84 (70-92 / Pythag: 71)

Minnesota’s up-and-down first half prompted the team to pull the ripcord and sell off anyone they could. Ten MLB players were dealt at the trade deadline, accelerating the Twins’ downward spiral to their worst 162-game season record since 2016. This massive roster overhaul doesn’t make it onto our typical “Offseason Personnel Changes” list below since they happened in July, though their impacts on the 2026 team are certainly not forgotten. Those departures are noted in each player grouping as are the MLB-ready returns from those trades. The Twins are undoubtedly one of the more interesting rosters given this recent upheaval, but are they sneakily good enough to outpace their low expectations?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• V Caratini (C)
• Tay. Rogers (RP-L)
• E Orze (RP-R)
• J Bell (1B)

Subtractions:

• C Vazquez (C)
• E Julien (2B)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 68 – 80

— Position Players —

2025 was a forgettable season for the Twins offense, sinking to its lowest park-adjusted wRC+ (97) since 2018. Production against left- and right-handed pitching was balanced for the second straight year though. Highlights include Byron Buxton smashing 35 home runs as part of the club’s 191 long balls that ranked 12th in the Majors. Unfortunately, they struggled to get men on base and produced the 8th fewest runs (678) – a number that paled in comparison to 773 runs against.

Trade deadline departures:

• SS Carlos Correa (HOU)
• OF Harrison Bader (PHI)
• 1B Ty France (TOR)
• UTL Willi Castro (CHC)

MLB-ready trade deadline additions:

• OF James Outman (LAD)
• OF Alan Roden (TOR)

Floundering In the Field

How poor the Twins fielding was depends on the grading system you use. Their 20th ranking per OAA doesn’t factor in catcher Ryan Jeffers’ struggles. But the 2nd worst -46 DRS and 25th ranked -23 FRV certainly do. Carlos Correa lost his edge in the field before leaving town, though heir apparent Brooks Lee wasn’t necessarily spectacular at shortstop, second base, or third base. Perhaps more consistency as the everyday shortstop may help the 25-year-old settle in and become a more solid defender at this critical position. Small improvements by Lee and rookie Luke Keaschall should help stabilize Minnesota’s infield defense.

As dynamic centerfielder Byron Buxton creeps into his 30s, defense took a small step back. With that said, Buck notched 542 plate appearances – a surprising career high after 11 seasons playing for the Twins. Midseason acquisition James Outman joins Austin Martin as more athletic depth to corner outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, both of whom are more suited as designated hitters. Outman should be better acclimated to support Buxton in center after a bumpy transition from the Dodgers. Regardless, the outfield likely stays on the bat-first side of things without much change to this group this offseason.

Coming back to the catcher group, there is optimism among Ryan Jeffers’ projections for a small positive fielding adjustment. The bigger problem is swapping out Christian Vazquez for Victor Caratini in the backup role. The veteran Caratini has a 40% better bat than Vazquez, making the fielding dropoff much more palatable as Vazquez’ hitting plummeted after leaving the Red Sox. Small tradeoffs across the diamond likely won’t make a macro impact on the Twins’ negative overall defense.

Leaning On the Youth

Last season’s preview anticipated lateral moves across all four of Minnesota’s areas. Keeping the plus offense rolling required the “young crop of talent like Lee, Lewis, and Julien establishing themselves as reliable bats”. Infielder Brooks Lee improved from his brief debut but leaves 5-10% of additional potential yet to be realized. Royce Lewis stayed healthy enough to log a career-high 403 PAs while dropping 20% offensively. And Edouard Julien struggled before his demotion to Triple-A that ultimately led to an offseason trade with the Rockies.

Those three young hitters hit at a negative 15-20% clip well below expectation. Fortunately, 23-year-old Luke Keaschall made his brief, yet successful, MLB debut after the team’s fire sale. From Tommy John surgery in 2024 to a broken forearm last spring, the rookie slashed .302/.382/.445 in a limited 207 PAs. The disciplined hitter will improve the club’s base running and set the table for the bigger hitters behind him to knock in more runs. This would help address last season’s key issue of lacking men on base to capitalize on the lineup’s power.

Luke Keaschall’s positional flexibility increases his playing time potential even more. After projecting a more modest plus-10% bat across a full season, the kid’s impact pencils out as a 1-win improvement that the Twins desperately need over his alternatives. Keaschall clearly has the greatest upside among this crew of players in their mid-20s. And while Brooks Lee should get a chance to progress this season, his projections range from 0-15% improvement. This is the tricky puzzle for new manager Derek Shelton to negotiate throughout the 2026 season. At least Shelton has recent experience with a similar context in Pittsburgh.

Kicking the Tires

Kody Clemens was seemingly in line for regular first baseman duties until (recently departed) President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey signed veteran free agent Josh Bell. The first base/designated hitter works are gummed up to a degree, although having more options on an unsettled roster may not be the worst thing to navigate. A Bell/Caratini timeshare at first has more potency than Clemens/France last year, notwithstanding a potential weak spot against left-handed pitching. This is an area that Victor Caratini or someone like Eric Wagaman could help shore up.

Alan Roden joins prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Walker Jenkins as deep cuts who could contribute to the outfield mix. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are left-handed hitting incumbents in the corners, with Wallner having the better all-around offensive career to date spurring plus 10-20% projections. Larnach’s shorter numbers – in line with 2025 – provide platoon opportunities for Austin Martin or another upstart.

There’s an interesting mix of promising young players on the position player side to go with proven veterans like Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, and Victor Caratini. Yet it’s the in-betweeners like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, and Austin Martin that could unlock a couple extra wins for the Twins. The projected year-over-year change for Minnesota’s lineup brackets more of the same, ranging from a small loss to 2% improvement.

— Rotation —

Minnesota’s fire sale somehow had minimal impact on its starting pitcher group. The season was not without incident though. Pablo Lopez’ streak of three straight years with 32 starts and 180+ innings came to an end as injuries limited him to just 14 outings. His absence made running mate Joe Ryan even more desirable in the trade market with several seasons of control remaining. Yet here he is, ready to take on a fifth full season in the Twins rotation…as of right now, anyways. This one-two punch has been a bedrock of the starting pitcher group for three seasons now, cranking out 6+ WAR with various moving parts in support.

The 2025 rotation was down compared to the past two seasons but certainly not out. Bailey Ober earned the #3 position after ramping into a robust 2024 season when he paired a career-high 178.2 innings with sub-4.00 effectiveness. Then hip issues took the wind out of his sails, pumping up home runs and slashing his strikeout and whiff rates. Ober’s projections take a step back to the low-to-mid 4.00s accordingly. Use Spring Training to gauge adjustments to the 30-year-old’s form to start of the season.

Rounding Up the Crew

25-year-olds Simon Woods Richardson and Zebby Matthews started the season in the Minors then combined for 38 starts and 2.6 WAR with the Twins. Matthews is in line for a larger role with multiple quality pitches in his arsenal centered around a truly sharp slider. Opponents hit him pretty well through this maturation process though. The next step includes a handful more starts and getting closer to the 3.79 FIP/3.81 xFIP and farther away from the 5.56 ERA. Zebby has been especially hittable (.359 career BABIP) compared to Woods Richardson, who can struggle with walks at times. That’s not uncommon. However, his stuff isn’t nearly as good to work out of jams with. Simeon’s upside is more limited than Zebby’s with much yet to be determined for both. Expect some more growing pains as these two collectively tack on another win of value into the 3-4 WAR range.

The summertime trade frenzy added options to the 2026 rotation via Tampa Bay’s Taj Bradley and Philadelphia’s Mick Abel. Both are young right-handers with multiple plus pitches and low-to-mid 4.00 outlooks. They need refinement – a common theme among this group – and should get plenty of looks with open doors at the #5 and perhaps #6 slot as Derek Shelton puts all of these arms to the test. Bradley has the leg up with three seasons of experience in the Tampa Bay rotation. Although progression has been anything but smooth, his velocity is up there despite shaky command.

Former prospect David Festa’s shoulder injury delayed his trajectory, potentially leading him into a relief role upon return. Other prospects on the verge of being called up could get tapped into the rotation at some point or join the bullpen. Connor Prielipp’s injury setbacks held him to no more than 82.2 innings at any level in his professional career. Control pitcher Andrew Morris has a solid arsenal yet to see the Majors, and former Blue Jays farmhand Kendry Rojas has promise with a rising fastball and high-strikeout capability.

A Tiered Approach

The Twins have a very interesting rotation with two known quantities at the top, a rebound candidate in Bailey Ober, and multiple options in place or on the cusp to fill things out. Of course, having this many options is the reason why veterans Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are not immune to a trade at some point. If this one-two punch stays on board, Minnesota gets all of their sub-4.00, 6+ WAR production. Mix-and-match 4.00+ performance from Simeon Woods Richardson and Zebby Matthews plus Ober’s return to form pencil out to 4-6 WAR. Minnesota’s deep starting pitcher crop will likely determine whether the rotation can meet its outlook for a 2-3 win improvement.

— Bullpen —

The 2026 bullpen has a very different look than it had on Opening Day last year. We already got a sneak peak via the post-trade deadline landscape after a host of key losses:

• RHP Jhoan Duran (PHI)
• RHP Griffin Jax (TBR)
• RHP Brock Stewart (LAD)
• LHP Danny Coulombe (TEX)
• RHP Louis Varland (TOR)

Those five accounted for 5.2 of the bullpen’s 5.5 full-season WAR. That value evaporated with a rough August and September (4.93 ERA, 4.32 FIP/4.50 xFIP) headlined by the league’s 3rd worst strikeout rate (19.9%) and 4th highest BABIP (.313). To their credit, the remaining relievers shouldered the 7th highest innings total (213.2) across the final two months of the season.

The Next Chapter

Holdovers Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Cole Sands were relative standouts down the stretch. And the good news is all three project right around the 4.00 mark as their roles increase in intensity. Their obvious downside is not having the big-K stuff that Jhoran Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart did. Offseason additions Taylor Rogers and Eric Orze generally fall in the bucket of fairly solid relievers. The bullpen simply lacks the lockdown star power that should cost them 3-4 wins of value. That does leave room for the variety of up-and-coming starters to make a positive impact and keep the unit just below league average.

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Chicago White Sox 2026 Win Total: Open 63.5, Now 68.5

2025 Result: Over 53 (60-102 / Pythag: 71)

There’s bad, and there’s record setting bad. The Chicago White Sox’ 2024 campaign set an MLB record with 121 losses, yet their 2025 season win total pegged them for an additional dozen wins. So how did the former worst team in the league respond? From our perspective, just as expected. Chicago crossed their win total target with 20 games remaining all while underperforming their 71 pythagorean win record. No shortage of young upstarts found their way onto the field as new manager Will Venable put his roster to the test. And now the expectations are even higher in 2026.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Munetaka Murakami (INF)
• S Dominguez (RP-R)
• A Hays (OF)
• J Hicks (RHP)
• L Acuna (INF)
• S Newcomb (RP-L)
• A Kay (SP-L)

Subtractions:

• L Robert Jr (CF)
• M Perez (SP-L)
• M Tauchman (OF)
• T Alexander (RP-L)
• S Wilson (RP-R)
• D Altavilla (RP-R)
• C Booser (RP-L)
• J Rojas (INF)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 59 – 77

— Position Players —

It’s obvious to say the White Sox offense has a lot of work to do this offseason. And that’s within the context of the 2025 lineup performing considerably better than the year prior. Chicago finished the season in the bottom five of many statistical categories including runs scored (647), slash line components (.232/.302/.373), wRC+ (88), and position player WAR (6.1). Yet somehow they edged out division champ Cleveland in most of those areas.

Last year’s rebound ended up on the low end of our 7-10% projection. To be fair, this lineup had a lot of moving parts as Will Venable balanced playing time between known veterans and a wave of hungry young prospects. Luis Robert Jr. – who is finally off of the trading block – left a lot to be desired with his second straight 84 wRC+ season hampered by minor injuries. Journeyman Mike Tauchman was one of their better bats who did not suffer a splits bias, though he too missed a fair amount of time on the IL. Outfielder Andrew Benintendi rebounded in a way despite notching his lowest playing time numbers aside from his rookie and 2020 campaigns.

Is the Hype Real?

When it comes to the White Sox, the upside is all about youth. That statement includes Japanese import Munetaka Murakami. The powerful corner infielder carries the veil of how will his skills translate to the MLB, especially after missing more than half of the 2025 NPB season. Jordan Rosenblum shared his projection methodology which some equate to Joey Gallo. Low batting average, decent on-base volume, and plenty of pop from a left-handed first baseman. Sure, I see the parallel. Murakami achieving his plus 15-20% projections would do this team quite well while the roster continues to evolve.

Infielder Miguel Vargas was on the short end of the stick having been traded from the Dodgers in the summer of 2024 and missing out on two Championship rings. Yet the 26-year-old embraced his new role as a lineup regular with the White Sox. Vargas reached new personal highs (569 PA, 101 wRC+) after being blocked for a couple season by L.A.’s phenomenal corner infielders. Shortcomings at the hot corner are a minor liability compared to the position group’s league-worst offensive numbers in 2024. Miguel hit the ball hard and should tick up a few percentage points as he gains valuable playing time.

I alluded to the Luis Robert Jr. trade earlier as something rumored for quite a while. The Mets finally took the bait this winter, swapping Luisangel Acuna for the centerfielder. The 24-year-old younger brother of superstar Ronald got a healthier dose of playing time primarily at second base last year. Note that Acuna slashed just .234/.293/.274 in 193 plate appearances. He is fast and can play multiple positions so don’t be surprised to see him in center or the infield. Rookie Brooks Baldwin has the inside track on taking over for Luis Robert Jr. though. His modest bat should not be worse but replacing the veteran’s glove is easier said than done.

Chicago also moves on from outfielders Mike Tauchman and recently retired Michael A Taylor in anticipation of switch-hitting prospect Braden Montgomery’s promotion. Expect his debut later this season, though 2027 is a more reasonable expectation for a breakout by the speedy, powerful 22-year-old. In the meantime, free agent Austin Hays supplements the outfield group with a quality bat. Minor injuries plagued his last couple seasons and he doesn’t necessarily address the Sox’ weaker side against right-handed pitching.

CHW Selected Hitters, 2025 Actual vs. 2026 Projections

	Age	2025 wRC+	2025 WAR	2026 wRC+	2026 WAR
Montgomery (SS)	24	129	2.7	100	2.7
Meidroth (2B)	24	87	1.3	100	2.5
Teel (C)	24	125	1.9	105	2.0
Vargas (3B)	26	101	1.3	107	2.0
Quero (C/DH)	22	95	-0.2	100	0.8

Skeptical of shortstop Colson Montgomery’s power surge? Your’e not the only one. His second half debut produced a .239/.311/.529 line that likely mellows in the more playing time, less explosiveness exchange. Middle infield partner Chase Meidroth was a bigger part of the Sox’ equation last season upon his April promotion. Montgomery bumped Meidroth from shortstop to second base where he excelled defensively in favor of infield substitute Lenyn Sosa. This duo still has room to improve the infield defense as regulars in Venable’s lineup.

2025 was a proving ground for the club’s trio of upstart catchers. Kyle Teel came over from Boston along with Chase Meidroth and Braden Montgomery in the Garrett Crochet trade last winter. The 24-year-old rookie led this contingent as a highly-regarded prospect with promising backstop skills. In fact, his defensive attributes overshadowed those of both Edgar Quero and Korey Lee. Next season should feature Teel and Lee behind the plate and the bat-first Quero more as a designated hitter unless Korey completely falls on his face. There is a lot to like about the White Sox’ improved middle infield defense – a factor that should push the team another step closer to neutral.

Chicago’s offense should also be improved as the new guard gains traction. But as the club relies more on this young talent, the outlook’s volatility increases. Depth is generally a weak spot until prospects like Braden Montgomery become established. However, unproven guys like Brooks Baldwin and Everson Pereira have the opportunity to stand out when players hit the IL or are otherwise ineffective. With that in mind, the White Sox’ rejuvenated lineup should have 2-4% upside. But with Luis Robert Jr. off the roster, I struggle to see where these guys generate surplus value on the base paths.

— Rotation —

Chicago’s starting pitcher crop could not replicate the relative success of the position player side. To be fair, they weren’t worse either. By account of the rotation’s 4.39 ERA it was improved. The nagging issues of decreasing workload (758.2 IP) and K/BB ratio (2.14) persisted, meaning there are innings to be gained as last year’s younger arms should stretch out more. Lower-strikeout veterans cycled through the equation; from Adrian Houser early in the season to Aaron Civale late and Martin Perez sprinkled throughout. All of them now play elsewhere, leaving plenty of room for the next big things.

Of the seven rotation hopefuls we looked at in the 2025 preview, only three played in the Majors last year. Some did not make it due to injury, others just weren’t up for the task. Off-the-radar Rule 5 selection Shane Smith made the club out of camp and instantly grabbed a rotation slot. The 25-year-old makes a strong case for 2026 ace after notching the following team highs: 29 starts, 146.1 IP, and 2.2 WAR. His 45.4% hard contact rate and the 4.10 FIP/4.23 xFIP behind the 3.81 ERA point to inflation though. Most of Smith’s value can be retained by going deeper into his starts, helping to take some pressure off the bullpen.

Who’s In For 2026?

The three alluded to above had limited impact. Sean Burke served primarily as a starting pitcher to the tune of a 4.59 ERA and 5.45 FIP/5.03 FIP. Barring a poor Spring Training, Will Venable wants him to be a rotation staple alongside Shane Smith. Davis Martin is in a similar boat but with a slightly better 4.10 ERA and 4.64 FIP/4.57xFIP. Both Martin and Burke generically project in the mid+ 4.00s with 150+ innings. The third returning starter of the bunch is Jonathan Cannon, whose 2025 tenure with the Big League club was more in-and-out than the rest. Like the others, Cannon got hit pretty hard and suffered 5.00+ numbers across the board in just 17 starts. Nothing is for certain with these guys, that’s for sure.

Noah Schultz’ bid for the 2025 rotation was sidelined by knee inflammation and middling results in the Minors. Keep an eye on his development in Spring Training as a multi-weapon pitcher. Drew Thorpe could find himself in the mix later in the season after Tommy John rehab. Plus prospect Tanner McDougal could be promoted as well. As things stand today, the repatriated Anthony Kay and journeyman Sean Newcomb round out the starting five. Or will Jordan Hicks work his way back as a starting pitcher? I’d put my money on Kay or Newcomb. I haven’t seen compelling arguments or projections supporting a major change in either direction this season. If so, this means another season of stagnant starting pitching performance while the offense makes headway.

— Bullpen —

Accounting for the 2nd most relief innings in the Majors (657.1) can do wonders for your bullpen’s valuation. It was below average to meh otherwise and suffered from the lack of true go-to arms when things mattered. Of the 49 save opportunities this group faced, only 25 were converted – the lowest rate in the MLB. Steven Wilson and Cam Booser did most of the damage in that regard and are no longer with the club. Fastball/slider righty Jordan Leasure worked himself into high-leverage situations in an improved year two, earning a setup role barring major command issues. He’ll support offseason addition Seranthony Dominguez after a comeback season of sorts. The 31-year-old is a bit of a wild card given his swingy strikeout and walk rates from one season to the next.

Grant Taylor and Mike Vasil dove into the fray as rookies; Taylor having made his debut in June while Vasil hit the ground running as a March waiver claim from the Rays. The 25-year-old Vasil spent his Minor League career as a starter without much success before becoming a multi-inning staple for Chicago. There have been some rumblings of him working into the rotation after 25 of his 44 relief appearances were of the 2+ inning variety. We’ll see how things pan out reconciling a .242 BABIP. Taylor’s stuff was off the charts across 36.2 innings, giving him the most promise of the non-Leasure bunch to be a low-3.00s performer.

Middle relief looks like the right place to kick Jordan Hicks’ tires. The righty still has gas but gets hit more and harder each season. 23-year-old Winkelman Gonzalez and 25-year-old Prelander Berroa could add spice to the group as high-velo, low-command fireballers at some point. Some names will come and some will go while others further cement themselves as Big Leaguers. After all, this is common for a non-contender like the White Sox. Right around average is not a terrible outlook for this mixed bag of a bullpen. Taking a shot with Seranthony Dominguez is far from the worst idea given his velo and the effectiveness of his new splitter.

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2026 AL Central Projected Standings

1. Detroit Tigers (87-75)
2. Kansas City Royals (83-79)
3. Cleveland Guardians (76-86)
4. Minnesota Twins (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (65-97)

The Leadoff Hit

And just like that, our 7th Annual Division Preview Series is underway. Next up is the NL East so be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com and follow us on X to stay in the loop. Or subscribe below for email notifications whenever the we deliver content here at the site: