The NL Central typically has the feel of an “up for grabs” division except in reality it’s been a two-horse race – at best – since the shortened 2020 season. Milwaukee stands as the cream of the crop the last couple years, though the Cubs have positioned themselves well into the preseason favorite spot. Saint Louis is trying to reset their roster if only they could rid themselves of a couple big contracts. Wide ranges of outcomes circle the young rosters in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, leading to low baseline expectations with a ton of upside. Will we see one of these dark horses jump up and catch the frontrunners sleeping?

Another season in the books marks The BetCrushers’ 6th Annual Divisional Previews for the 2025 MLB season. We go as deep as we can to find value in the futures markets – with a special focus on regular season win totals. It’s a labor of love for a good purpose. We appreciate you all! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)

2024 Division Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

2024 NL Central Final Standings

1. Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
3. Chicago Cubs (83-79)
4. Cincinnati Reds (77-85)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)

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Milwaukee Brewers 2025 Win Total: Open 83, Now 82.5

2024 Result: Under 95 (93-69 / Pythag: 95)

They lost longtime manager Craig Counsell then turned around and traded ace Corbin Burnes. Yet Pat Murphy’s Brewers hardly missed a beat in the NL Central, capturing a third division crown in four seasons. Their 93 wins fell just short of market expectations but good enough to earn Milwaukee’s trusted lieutenant National League Manager of the Year honors. Dealing with the loss of shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams is one thing, holding off an active Cubs club is another. Can the Brew Crew hold on for a third straight NL Central title?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• T Alexander (RHP)
• N Cortes (SP – LHP)
• C Durbin (2B)

Subtractions:

• D Williams (CL – RHP)
• H Milner (RP – LHP)
• W Adames (SS)
• J Ross (SP – RHP)
• C Rea (SP – RHP)
• G Sanchez (C/DH)
• F Montas (SP – RHP)
• B Wilson (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 75 – 87

— Position Players —

After three and a half seasons in Milwaukee, coveted shortstop Willy Adames left for San Francisco in free agency. Rarely was Adames not a plus hitter and his 2022 and 2023 defensive seasons were elite. Willy left on a very high note offensively, accumulating career-high home runs (32), runs (93), RBI (112), and stolen bases (21) in 2024. Needless to say his 4.8 WAR at a premium position will be greatly missed – as evidenced by his new 7-year, $182M contract.

Adames’ exit opens the door for former Orioles prospect Joey Ortiz to take the reins at shortstop. The 26-year-old settled in nicely as Milwaukee’s regular third baseman with positive fielding grades and a respectable .239/.329/.398 slash line. Transitioning to shortstop could ding his grades but not severely since Ortiz’ prospect profile lauded his glove work and above-average arm. Considering that he takes over after one of Adames’ rougher seasons in the field, this is a positive move that only enhances the Brewers’ top-tier defense in 2025. However, hitting is slashed by about 10-20% overall with clear tradeoffs between their handedness splits. Willy’s extreme reverse splits give way to Joey’s moderate standard splits.

Holding Things Down

Pat Murphy’s leadership kept Milwaukee’s phenomenal defense rolling along despite Willy Adames’ down year in the field. Whether looking at DRS, zone rating, FRV, or OAA the team’s grades ranked anywhere from 3rd to 6th in the MLB. Outfield defense was borderline elite with the formidable foursome of Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, and Garrett Mitchell – all of whom are still on the roster. Note that Perkins suffered a fractured shin in Spring Training and will miss the season’s start. Minimal declines from such strong fielding grades are balanced by moving Christian Yelich into more of an everyday DH role to spare him some wear-and-tear.

There’s plenty to like with the young, speedy outfield group. Rookie phenom Jackson Chourio projects similarly in season two with an impressive mix of power and bat-to-ball skills. Left-handed hitter Mitchell retains much of his value through the increased quantity, decreased quality tradeoff after a 224-PA season. Frelick and Perkins could find themselves in a timeshare situation as slightly below-average hitters. At least Murphy has a good rotation of outfielders to rotate in and capitalize on their strengths with.

As mentioned above, there are defensive gains to be had with Joey Ortiz at shortstop. The backfill options at third base are a potential platoon group of Oliver Dunn, Andruw Monasterio, and Caleb Durbin that projects closer to neutral, leaving a small net negative in Ortiz’ place. Brice Turang is young enough to keep up his strong work at second base while the catcher group headlined by William Contreras could regress a touch as his 2023 framing grade spike looks more like an outlier. Quick math points to both the infield and outfield holding onto their strong defensive values.

Staying Positive

Since the shortened 2020 season, Milwaukee has struggled to find offensive consistency on a year-to-year basis. Last season’s overall production (.248/.326/.403, 104 wRC+) was a good one in their recent up-and-down history despite not delivering a ton of home runs (177). But they capitalized on the lineup’s speed, swiping 217 bases at an impressive 83.8% success rate. Much of that speed is still on the roster with the key exception being Willy Adames.

Despite back issues sidelining Christian Yelich for most of the 2024 season, I see plenty of optimism to maintain the +20% baseline that the veteran re-established in 2023. That’s about a 30% pullback from his 73-game sample last year though production against southpaws likely dips more than his strong side does. Both Yelich and outfielder Garrett Mitchell face a potency dropoff as their playing time increases. Add that to the Adames vs. Ortiz recalibration at shortstop as well as the question marks at third base for an overarching 5-7% offensive pullback. There’s work yet to be done to sharpen up our splits adjustments.

— Rotation —

For the first time since 2019, Milwaukee’s rotation failed to grade out above average. The absence of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff suiting up for the Brew Crew truly hurt the cause, leaving Freddy Peralta to lead the charge. Freddy was good but his stuff wasn’t quite as sharp as the year before. On a positive note, he pulled together a full 32-start campaign on the heels of a 30-start 2023. The K/BB ratio drop from 3.39 to 2.94 sums it up well. Regardless, the 28-year-old has proven to be a dependable rotation arm – an important attribute coming off of a season where Brewers starters left a lot for the bullpen to clean up.

Topping last year’s fifth-lowest workload (794.0 IP) – the team’s low point since 2020 by far – is paramount for the Brewers. The Corbin Burnes trade going into the 2024 season has much to do with this dropoff, considering Burnes was a 190+ inning pitcher in both 2022 and 2023. A key reinforcement is on the way though. Brandon Woodruff returns from missing all of last year rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Although Woody has never been known for volume, the veteran righty hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.05 since 2019. Post-surgery, however, something more in the mid+ 3.00s is appropriate even if workload is now a little more fuzzy. 150 innings may or may not be a stretch in the 32-year-old’s return to action.

Restocking the Shelves

The post-David Stearns front office has been diligent in keeping the pitching staff full in light of recent departures. Balancing these needs with a typical Midwestern payroll is always a challenge. Those constraints led to Joe Ross, Frankie Montas, Dallas Keuchel, and Bryse Wilson making 34 of the club’s 162 starts. This now-departed collective combined for 0.8 WAR, propped up by Ross and Montas. Spot starts and fill-in duty remain as key aspects of patching together a full season of starters with promising rookie Robert Gasser undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer.

Fortunately, 26-year-old longtime minor leaguer Tobias Myers burst onto the scene with a 25-start MLB debut. He tired a bit coming down the stretch but showed promising durability, pitching into the 6th inning in 12 outings. All that with a rock solid 3.00 ERA and 3.91 FIP/3.97 xFIP. Can Myers tack on a few more starts in season two while keeping his production around the 4.00 mark? Both aspects are debatable prior to Spring Training given his minor league track record, though Tobias will undoubtedly be leaned on by Pat Murphy to keep the rotation’s shelves stocked.

The Brewers will also rely on two key additions made last summer and this winter: Aaron Civale and Nestor Cortes. Nestor is another one whose extensive minor league career finally gave way to a couple successful seasons with the Yankees before landing him on the trading block for closer Devin Williams. The 36th round pick figures to be a 4.00 guy with an uncertain workload much like Tobias Myers and Brandon Woodruff. In reality, Nestor simply needs to improve on the departed Colin Rea’s 0.9 WAR. Civale’s first 30+ start campaign came with mid-4.00 effectiveness, calling for similar expectations but with better home run luck.

Gains To Be Made

Projections are currently all over the map with this group, though we’ve narrowed things down to about 3-5 wins of improvement. Getting back known veteran Brandon Woodruff forms a solid 6-WAR duo with Freddy Peralta at the top of the rotation. A threesome of 2-win arms carrying a heightened degree of variance contributes to the collective uptick. Depth is marginal with Aaron Ashby and DL Hall though. Both are likely to spend more time producing for the bullpen than filling rotation gaps if all goes well. Fortunately these two are half-decent ground ball pitchers who should benefit from a very good middle infield behind them.

— Bullpen —

Although our take on the 2024 rotation struggling to match its 2023 production was on point, a similar perspective on the bullpen was dead wrong. Their second-best 3.11 ERA outpaced the 3.78 FIP/3.90 xFIP – a product of the club’s strong defense. As opposed to Cleveland or Atlanta, their top-five 5.9 WAR was more about the massive workload left by the rotation than it was a middling 23.8% K rate. Even though this rendition will be without 2023 NL Reliever of the Year Devin Williams, the group pencils out as above-average but short of last year’s valuation by a couple wins.

Other than the team control and payroll rationale behind trading Williams, Milwaukee feels like they really have something in 31-year-old Trevor Megill. And for a bargain price just under $2M, the guy who filled in for Devin while injured gets the closer job heading into 2025. His electric fastball contrasts well with a devastating knuckle curve. Megill likely faces headwinds from a .254 BABIP but two straight seasons of near-14% whiff rates look promising for another strong season ahead.

The relief unit’s only true loss aside from Devin Williams is left-hander Hoby Milner. Otherwise, this bullpen has plenty of continuity to be optimistic about. It’s pretty much what we’ve all come to expect out of a Brewers bullpen. Big names like Hader and Williams are in the past. Yet there’s strength in numbers to keep this unit rolling, especially if the rotation pulls its weight this season.

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St. Louis Cardinals 2025 Win Total: Open 77.5, Now 75.5

2024 Result: Under 84 (83-79 / Pythag: 76)

So the 90-win Cardinals are a thing of the past, eh? Things did get a little better in Saint Louis one year removed from posting their worst record since 1995. Changes are in the works though, starting with longtime front office head John Mozeliak stepping down at the end of this season. Former Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom will slide into the role and navigate the team through this transitional period. A salary purge is underway with MVP first baseman Paul Goldschmidt gone in free agency and veterans Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray on the trade block. The market calls for another step back in 2025 but the low bar is asking for takers.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• N/A

Subtractions:

• K Gibson (SP – RHP)
• L Lynn (SP – RHP)
• P Goldschmidt (1B)
• A Kittredge (RP – RHP)
• M Carpenter (1B/DH)
• G Gallegos (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 74 – 78

— Position Players —

Given how the position player group ranked in the bottom third of many offensive statistics, it’s a bit of a surprise how the Cardinals wrapped up the 2024 campaign with a winning record. Aside from the 2022 season, they haven’t been known for a prolific offense in quite some time. In fact, last year’s numbers are more in line with the last decade’s. Just as notable is how the Redbirds have fully rotated out of a four year stretch where their defense was elite. Many of their former high-level fielders like Harrison Bader and Tommy Edman are on to greener pastures.

The front office has set the course for this lineup to cycle through its organizational depth, employing only Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado as “outside” talent. Although Arenado is expected to be the Cardinals’ Opening Day third baseman, he and Willson Contreras could be moved by the trade deadline. In the meantime, the veteran third baseman should be a neutral to plus-10% hitter with typical strong fielding similar to last year. Contreras fills the void left behind by Paul Goldschmidt at first base with offensive upside in the 20% range as Goldy left on a low note. Barring a trade, St. Louis will gladly take a full season from Willson after his 2024 was cut in half by a freak injury.

Minor Changes and Growing Pains

One positive of Contreras vacating the catcher position – as prompted by a rough defensive 2023 – is kicking the tires on the new tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages. 24-year-old Herrera is expected to improve behind the plate while negotiating .370 BABIP regression across a larger timeshare. Pages showed promise defensively but falls quite short with the bat despite showing good power in the minors last season. All in all, not a bad combination replacing Willson by trading offense for defense.

22-year-old Masyn Winn earned 3.6 WAR in his first full season in the Majors, grading out as the best defensive shortstop per DRS. Statcast FRV has him at 12th. Either way, an average bat combined with his speed offers the club a ton of value. Hell, he even commented about this year’s goal to steal 30-40 bases. The kid needs to get on base a little more to make that a realistic expectation, though his point is taken. Will the Cardinals turn into a more aggressive running team? Perhaps. But there’s only a select few like Winn and reserve outfielder Michael Siani who have been implemented that way.

The biggest growing pains within this group were felt by big man Jordan Walker. He went from being a powerful and quick top prospect graduate in 2023 (.276/.342/.445) to having a 28.1% strikeout rate in 2024 that sunk his numbers down to .201/.253/.366 in limited playing time. Supposedly Walker has his swing back on track and will commence the bounceback in Spring Training. The Cardinals will take every piece of his rebound they can get after mustering a subpar .392 slugging percentage.

Manager Oli Marmol would also love to get second baseman Nolan Gorman back on track. Last season accentuated the need for a short-side platoon partner in his down year at the plate. The bottom dropped out of his swing as nearly 3% was shed from a quality walk rate and strikeouts ballooned from 31.9% to 37.6% – the second highest rate among hitters with 400+ plate appearances. Projections getting him back into positive territory rely on that K rate coming down to a “reasonable” 32-ish percent.

Facing Reality

Aside from assumed bench depth via lefty outfielder Michael Siani and right-handed hitters Luken Baker and Thomas Saggesse, minor league depth is marginal. Victor Scott II should get another bite at the apple after struggling mightily in his MLB debut. The 24-year-old has the wheels and defensive prowess for center field but slashed an ugly .179/.219/.283. He’s a guy who can spark the Cardinals’ run game with Masyn Winn if he can end his struggles against AAA pitching.

I hate to oversimplify matters except that so much points towards business as usual with this group. Defense figures to remain on the right side of average, especially with Herrera and Pages at catcher. The lineup could see modest gains, hinging primarily on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman getting their acts together. Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbar are quiet pillars that mask deficiencies elsewhere but they realistically top out as +20% hitters over a full season. Dare I say there isn’t much upside in the position player corps?

— Rotation —

Staff ace Sonny Gray is in a similar boat as Arenado and Contreras where the club would like to shed his backloaded contract. There’s that sticky no-trade clause again! The organization’s direction is more important than Gray propping up a middling group that just leaned on 37-year-olds Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to make ends meet. Gibson hung in there for 30 starts at 4.24 ERA. Lynn missed part of the second half with a knee injury that spoiled his St. Louis return. The free agent duo’s collective 2.8 WAR pales in comparison to Sonny’s 3.8 via 28 starts at 3.84 ERA and 3.12 FIP/2.82 xFIP.

Gray remains at the top for now, sporting 3+ WAR projections as his diverse arsenal continued to be widely effective. Veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas was unable to post a third straight 200-inning season due to an average depth of start decrease from 6.02 in 2022-2023 to 5.36. Returning to mid-4.00s form with similar workload keeps the 36-year-old in 1+ WAR territory at least. But it’s midseason acquisition Erick Fedde who may have put himself right below Gray in the pecking order. He proved to be a viable rotation piece in his return from a brief KBO hiatus, generating plenty of grounders en route to an impressive 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP/4.12 xFIP. Expectations for regression back toward the low-4.00s and .300 BABIP put him around 2 WAR.

Injuries continue to hamper left-hander Steven Matz, who was limited to just 44.1 innings by ongoing lower back issues. He has yet to top 160.1 innings in a single season so nobody anticipates a workhorse-like 2025. Would the Cardinals like him to grind through the first half without any setbacks? Absolutely. At this point in his career, Matz is a 4.00+ placeholder who can be propped up by the infield’s strong left side. Volume is where things get fuzzy though.

Priming the Upside Arms

There is light at the end of the tunnel. Andre Pallante is a good example of a young reliever successfully transitioning to the rotation. 2023 was an in-between year where he worked out of the bullpen without much success. Pallante has a 66.5% ground ball rate in his short career but got lit up by the long ball on over a quarter of all fly balls that season. That came after his rookie season foray into the rotation where his ERA was more than 1.6 runs higher as a starter than reliever. His FIP and xFIP were much tighter, however. Marmol would love to see Pallante capitalize on last year’s success in the rotation upon being called back up on Memorial Day weekend (111.1 IP @ 3.56 ERA, 3.62 FIP/3.82 xFIP).

Prospects must answer the call to keep the St. Louis rotation from losing too much ground this season. Trade talk will continue to swirl around Gray and Fedde this summer, which would knock this unit off of its status quo outlook. Short term pain, long term gain is what the Cardinals are shooting for. The gains come from a stable of early-20s starting pitchers that will impact the club this year.

• Quinn Mathews (L) – The Spring Training non-roster invitee is a fastball/slider guy with an effective big-differential changeup who figures to jump into the rotation at some point with very optimistic expectations.
• Michael McGreevy (R) – Successfully debuted in 3 starts and a long relief appearance as a heavy ground baller with command; came to camp in great shape riding 2024’s high.
• Tink Hence (R) – AAA Memphis is on deck prior to reaching the Big Leagues; a strong changeup and improved command mesh well with big velocity if he can stay healthy.
• Sem Robberse (R) – The Dutch import doesn’t have eye-popping velocity but gets enough swings-and-misses in the minors to go with ground ball contact.

It’s tough to tell where this franchise will stand in July when contending teams come calling. Just as important, how will these hot pitching prospects be doing at that time? This only adds to the fuzziness keeping us away from Cardinals futures.

— Bullpen —

Ryan Helsley is the boss of a modest bullpen that gets much weaker if traded this summer. The 30-year-old flamethrower becomes a free agent next winter and could command a nine-figure contract on the open market. And why shouldn’t he? Sub-3.00 ERAs and FIPs in each of the last 3 seasons; no xFIP worse than 3.35. As Helsley’s strikeout rate simmered to 29.7% last year, his 37.8% hard hit rate marked a career-low. Plus he delivers when it matters. Ryan nailed down 49 saves in 53 attempts for a 92.5% conversion rate. As for his teammates, well, they converted an ugly 20% of the other 30 opportunities.

Ryan Helsley’s 2.3 WAR accounting for 59% of the entire bullpen’s value speaks to his dominance. It also helps that the lefty/righty setup duo of Matthew Liberatore and Ryan Fernandez returns after their 1.2 WAR contribution. This trio and the departed Andrew Kittredge (70.2 IP @ 2.84 ERA, 3.96 FIP/3.64 xFIP) comprised a decent high-leverage group. Granted, Kittredge was anything but lockdown in save situations. If there’s any critique on Libertore it’s that he needs more than an effective slider to be oppressive.

Ryan Fernandez is the one of the non-Helsley bullpen arms who has a decent chance of repeating his impressive 62-outing debut at 3.51 ERA, 3.35 FIP/3.90 xFIP effectiveness. He and southpaw JoJo Romero give the bullpen true mid-3.00 support. However, the key deficiency of the 2025 unit is the lack of big strikeout potential. Only the Ryans – Helsley and Fernandez – produced greater than 22% strikeout rates last year. No wonder these guys blew so many saves. This is a very top-heavy unit that goes from average to bottom third if Helsley is dealt.

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Chicago Cubs 2025 Win Total: Open 85, Now 87

2024 Result: Under 84.5 (83-79 / Pythag: 88)

Chucking David Ross to the curb in favor of former Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell did not move the needle. Chicago posted back-to-back 83-win seasons as the club transitioned dugout leadership, barely keeping win total under bettors on the right side of things. Trust us, we felt the crunch in late September. Can Chicago take advantage of a supposedly weaker NL Central? This franchise had no shortage of transactions this winter with the intent to shake things up and get back to the playoffs. It’s been four seasons and the door is wide open for their postseason return.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J Turner (1B/DH)
• R Brasier (RP – RHP)
• R Pressly (SP – RHP)
• J Berti (INF)
• C Rea (SP – RHP)
• C Thielbar (RP – LHP)
• K Tucker (OF)
• C Poteet (RHP)
• C Kelly (C)
• M Boyd (SP – RHP)
• E Morgan (RP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• C Bellinger (1B/OF)
• I Paredes (3B)
• H Wesneski (RHP)
• S Armstrong (RP – RHP)
• K Hendricks (SP – RHP)
• J Lopez (RP – RHP)
• D Smyly (RP – LHP)
• Y Gomes (C)
• M Tauchman (OF)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 83 – 86

— Position Players —

One challenge of approaching these team previews is whether continuity or change is the most noteworthy. In Chicago’s case, there’s enough of both to call attention to. What’s not to like with their existing lineup’s core? Plus the front office shook the right things up to prompt meaningful improvement. So let’s start with the pair of impactful mid-December trades on the position player side:

• OF Kyle Tucker from HOU for 3B Isaac Paredes and SP Hayden Wesneski (plus 3B prospect Cam Smith)
• 1B/OF Cody Bellinger to NYY for SP Cody Poteet

The Cody Bellinger cash dump seemed imminent after 3x All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker came to town. Although a contract extension appears to be in jeopardy prior to his 2026 free agency season, Tucker is expected to put a charge into the outfield after four seasons of 4+ WAR from solid defense and +30% production at the plate. Plus he’s a 20+ stolen base threat. Even though a nasty foul ball off the shin halved Tucker’s 2024 campaign, his eye-popping return in September should dismiss any skepticism for another 4+ win projection. Including the loss of part-timer Mike Tauchman, Tuck represents a 1-2 win upgrade over the pair considering all aspects.

Blending Experience Levels

The Kyle Tucker addition does not come without sacrifices. Starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski has just one option left and was easily squeezed out of the rotation. Not a huge deal. The other trade chip suited Houston’s needs with Alex Bregman out in free agency: third baseman Isaac Paredes. He became expendable after failing to produce upon joining the Cubs at the trade deadline (.223/.325/.307). Chicago misses the opportunity to reap Paredes’ bounceback dividends but gets to kick the tires on the organization’s top prospect Matt Shaw. The deserving 23-year-old has been banging on the door with phenomenal production at AAA Iowa (.284/.379/.488). Impressive speed and solid defense around the infield should improve the Cubs’ third base situation on multiple levels.

Chicago found something across the diamond in Michael Busch’s first full Major League season. The left-handed hitter does not need a platoon partner and projects to be a +10-20% hitter in the heart of the lineup. I could certainly be wrong about Busch being an everyday player, especially if that’s what the Justin Turner acquisition is about. Developing corner infielders meshed with accomplished veteran middle infielders Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner should strike the right chord in 2025. Perhaps the double play tandem loses a half-step in the field and on the base paths as they age? Flexor tendon surgery rehab should help Hoerner’s arm strength issues, though he will not be ready for the opening Tokyo Series. Even so, Shaw at third base likely neutralizes those effects, if any, helping to maintain Chicago’s top ten defense.

Hoyer did enough to tackle deficiencies behind the plate by signing Carson Kelly to the backup role. The catcher group graded out second-worst in 2024 just above the Southsiders – not a great distinction by any means. Their combination of bottom-five hitting and bottom-third defense is unlike most teams’ backstop units that usually demonstrate strength in at least one aspect. Kelly flirts with league-average hitting while being a solid defender. But it’s primary catcher Miguel Amaya who needs to take another step forward after his playing time doubled last season. Both ends of his game pulled back after his second-half call-up in 2023, creating a watch your back situation with the veteran installed behind him. Prospect Moises Ballesteros can also put some heat on Amaya as he ramps up for MLB action in 2026.

Swirling Around the Outfield

Speaking of minor league talent, Chicago has a pair of lauded outfielder prospects in Kevin Alcantara and Owen Cassie chomping at the bit. They likely impact the roster in 2026 but could get called up in the second half depending on where the front office takes this team. Or a depth piece like Vidal Brujan may fail to produce and open up a slot on the 26-man. Brujan has just enough positional flexibility to justify keeping him around – for now, at least.

That’s all well and good, but those are the fringes of the Cubs’ 2025 outfield. Kyle Tucker solidifies the right field spot as a clear batting upgrade over Bellinger and Tauchman against both lefty and righty pitching. Fielding should be no worse with some upside once Tucker gets the lay of the land at Wrigley. Seiya Suzuki – a tough one to grade and project defensively – offers depth in right but appears to be squeezed into a regular DH role at this point. Switch-hitting Ian Happ has been a 640+ PA player for three years straight with average-to-plus fielding. Barring significant injury, you can just about chalk him up for another 3-4 win season.

It’s safe to say the corners are locked down with everyday players. How about the critical center field position? Pete Crow-Armstrong cemented his role as the primary guy for the job with a strong rookie season. The 22-year-old finished as a top ten center fielder with strong arm and range grades. And his significant second half turnaround at the plate (+40%) foreshadows better offense across the board. More times on base with his speed only helps the Cubs maintain their top five base running grade. I am a little bit surprised that our numbers mark this lineup up marginally given the offseason moves.

— Rotation —

Chicago’s starting pitching was effective in terms of ERA (3.77, 5th best) despite a mid-pack 4.11 FIP/4.11 xFIP (17th, 18th best). That’s what a 21.1% K rate will do to your FIP. But the group as a whole was fairly efficient when considering walk rate (6.8%) in the face of a depressed .279 BABIP. After moving on from career Cub Kyle Hendricks, the rotation retains four key starters who will continue to be the bedrock of this unit in 2025.

CHC Key Returning Starting Pitcher Performance (2024)

	Starts / IP	K%	BB%	GB%	ERA	FIP/xFIP	WAR
S Imanaga (L)	29 / 173.1	25.1%	4.0%	37.2%	2.91	3.72/3.62	3.0
J Steele (L)	24 / 134.2	24.3%	6.7%	44.8%	3.07	3.23/3.62	3.0
J Taillon (R)	28 / 165.1	18.5%	4.9%	40.1%	3.27	3.92/4.16	2.3
J Assad (R)	29 / 147.0	19.4%	9.9%	43.6%	3.73	4.64/4.61	1.0

This experienced group carries a lot of stability into the season, notably with the Shota Imanaga/Justin Steele duo. They are poised to duplicate their 3.0 WAR seasons with upside primarily in the form of 29-year-old Steele staying healthy for a full workload. Shota’s broad arsenal and solid command produced plenty of whiffs while keeping hitters off balance. BABIP regression (.264) likely shifts his ERA toward the mid-3.00s in a similar fashion to Steele, whose .270 BABIP as a ground ball contact hitter should return to its typical baseline. They may not be prototypical workhorse aces but they get the type of results suited to lead an experienced rotation.

Jameson Taillon’s game has never been about putting hitters away. He pounds the strike zone and deals with the consequences of the long ball, something he avoided better than in the past. Part of that is due to leaving Pittsburgh’s framework of ground-ball contact induced by heavy two-seamer action. As opposed to work-in-progress starter Javier Assad, Taillon can eat innings more effectively with a walk rate nearly half of Assad’s. This half of the returning four carries more unpredictability in their projections because of their profiles. A reasonable approach accounts for some give-and-take between Taillon and Assad, arriving at a net neutral valuation from 2024 to 2025.

Two For One

Jed Hoyer’s group addressed Hendricks’ rotation spot this winter with a pair of free agents. The veteran was not able to sustain his surprising improvements from 2023, posting a 6.27 ERA and 5.09 FIP/4.55 xFIP in 24 starts last season. The short-term absence of home runs and reduction in walks died a quick death. Saying goodbye to the former workhorse who helped lead Chicago’s 2016 World Series Championship run is one thing, replacing his nominal value of a year prior is another.

The Cubs will find out firsthand whether the Matthew Boyd rebirth is real. After a tough series of injuries and lost effectiveness of his late 2010s heyday in Detroit, Boyd looked strong in limited duty with Cleveland post-Tommy John surgery rehab. Impressive command of his repertoire earned a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 innings. The challenge with the 34-year-old lefty is not knowing how effective he can be across a much larger workload, let alone topping 100 innings for the first time since 2019. 20 starts at 4.00 effectiveness more or less replaces Kyle Hendricks though. Understanding the risk of leaning too hard on Matthew Boyd and their unproven arms, the Cubs also inked former Brewer Colin Rea to a one year deal. If anything, he throws strikes and was able to extend deeper into starts last season.

Replacing Hendricks and tacking on depth is important in case of injuries above them or steep regression from Javier Assad. It also allows for younger arms like Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown to develop out of the bullpen or in AAA instead of being thrown to the wolves right away. Although Brown was sharp in his MLB debut. This is close to a status quo scenario without having to ask too much from the least experienced pitchers to fill an entire 162-game season again. Despite some volatility in the #4 and #5 slots, expect a similar valuation with some upside via Imanaga and Steele.

— Bullpen —

Chicago’s relief pitching situation can be described as a tale of two halves, with the second installment resulting in a half-run improvement in ERA over the first. Out go the 4.00+ ERAs of Colten Brewer, Adbert Alzolay, and Hector Neris along with a declining Drew Smyly. In their places are a pair of mid-2024 imports, Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson as well as offseason acquisitions headlined by Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan, and Caleb Thielbar. This collection of fresh relievers – even though Miller was originally drafted by the Cubs – ties in well with holdovers Porter Hodge and Keegan Thompson.

To complicate matters even more, the Cubs have a bumper crop of relievers in the minors currently on the 40-man roster. Recent graduate Porter Hodge’s 1.88 ERA earned him a shot at the 2025 closer job after converting 9 of 12 save opportunities. The 24-year-old offers a typical relief pitcher’s fastball/slider blend that was effective enough to strike out 31.7% of batters with plenty of whiffs to support that big number. However, a 11.6% walk rate and .189 BABIP point to production more in line with last season’s 2.75 FIP/3.41 xFIP.

Fortunately, the Cubs’ retooled bullpen has options in Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson. The club got firsthand looks at these pitchers who failed to launch with their former teams. Miller made appearances for four different clubs before sticking in Chicago for 49 appearances. Similar to Porter Hodge, his .202 BABIP, 2.15 ERA, and 3.62 FIP/4.28 xFIP send mixed messages for 2025 expectations though. Maybe Wrigleyville is the place where Nate Pearson finally puts it all together. A multitude of injuries clouded his promising career in Toronto before putting his best foot forward in Chicago.

N Pearson Statistics, by Club (2024)

	IP	K%	BB%	BABIP	Hard Contact	ERA	FIP/xFIP
TOR	40.0	28.0%	9.3%	.356	42.9%	5.63	4.64/3.74
CHC	26.1	22.3%	3.9%	.254	49.3%	2.73	3.96/3.65
Season	66.1	26.0%	7.4%	.314	45.5%	4.48	4.37/3.71

The presumptive Pressly/Hodge/Brasier/Miller late-inning group has wide ranges of probable outcomes as they settle into their roles. Former Houston standout closer Ryan Pressly could be the most stable option of the group but has declining strikeout numbers. Pressly still thrives on tons of ground balls though. Is Keegan Thompson dependable enough to parlay a 2.67 ERA into a full season in relief? How about starter-turned-reliever Eli Morgan, whose 1.93 ERA and .222 BABIP were not unique in Cleveland’s unicorn bullpen performance? And is Caleb Thielbar due for a rebound after the longtime Twin lost his fastball and slider last year?

Do you go with the underlying regression concerns holding the bullpen to a neutral ceiling? Or project an overall improvement with this fresh assembly of arms? At this point in the preseason, we’re inclined to start out with a neutral base case scenario within a wide band of variance around it. Bullpens are typically enigmatic by nature so the multitude of options – and questions with some of them – leave plenty to get worked out by Craig Counsell this spring. At least there is no shortage of arms in the pipeline to throw into the mix including budding starters Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Cody Poteet.

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Cincinnati Reds 2025 Win Total: Open 79.5

2024 Result: Under 82.5 (77-85 / Pythag: 82)

Last year brought the rain down on 2023’s parade – a season that ushered in some of signs of life for this historic franchise. It’s safe to call 2024 a lost season between Matt McLain missing its entirety, a PED suspension, and more injuries grinding down any hope to win the division. (At least they won in Pittsburgh while we there.) Changes at the top resulted in Terry Francona replacing David Bell in the Reds’ dugout on a three-year deal. Does Tito move the needle with this young, impressionable team or do their roster holes hold them to mediocrity for yet another season?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• S Barlow (RP – RHP)
• Tay Rogers (RP – LHP)
• A Hays (OF)
• G Lux (2B)
• J Trevino (C)
• B Singer (SP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• F Cruz (RP – RHP)
• J India (2B)
• J Junis (SP – RHP)
• B Farmer (RP – RHP)
• A Wynns (C)
• J Wilson (RP – LHP)
• L Maile (C)
• T France (1B)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 70 – 86

— Position Players —

Any meaningful rebound of the Cincinnati Reds starts with the offense. We got a taste of how dynamic this lineup can be for about 3-4 months of the 2023 season before rookie standout Matt McLain went down. Budget constraints limited the team’s activity in free agency even though most of us Reds fans find that to be a very weak excuse. However, front office head Nick Krall wasn’t afraid to wheel and deal in the trade market. The short list of position player impacts from those trades include:

• November: 2B/DH Jonathan India to Kansas City Royals (for SP Brady Singer)
• December: C Jose Trevino from New York Yankees (for RP Fernando Cruz)
• January: 2B/DH Gavin Lux from Los Angeles Dodgers (for OF prospect + draft pick)

Change Was Due

As with many MLB trades, there is more depth to these transactions when it comes to draft picks, prospects, and payroll considerations. Trading former Rookie of the Year Jonathan India impacts Cincinnati’s infield depth as well as internal leadership after posting his best numbers since winning the award. As Ben Clemens noted in his breakdown of the Jonathan India/Brady Singer trade:

McLain missed the entire year after shoulder surgery. Encarnacion-Strand got hurt in May and didn’t return. Marte got suspended for PED use. When all was said and done, the Reds ended up trading for infield depth in Santiago Espinal. India played in 151 games and supplied his usual OBP-heavy offense.

– Reds Trade Jonathan India for a Song Singer – Ben Clemens, FanGraphs.com – November 25, 2024

If the Reds’ infielders stay healthy – and away from PEDs – all is well, right? The India-Lux switcheroo has minimal defensive impact with the talented Matt McLain taking over second base duties. Lux is pegged primarily as a designated hitter given last year’s case of the yips but may get thrown into the field with Spencer Steer’s shoulder issues. Plus flexible infielder Santiago Espinal can fill in at second base when needed. As underwhelming as Gavin Lux was in L.A. compared to his prospect expectations, he hits right-handed pitching well (.262/.332/.407, 109 wRC+ in 2024). That’s one small piece of the offensive turnaround puzzle.

Matt McLain’s baseline expectations generally mimic India’s 2024 numbers with 10% or greater upside. Jonathan leaves on a high note against left-handed hitting (.277/.397/.418), which makes Matt’s return to form even more critical. Cincinnati’s park-adjusted production against lefties was fifth-worst in the MLB, so losing further ground is not an option. Hell, losing ground anywhere with this position player group won’t fly.

CIN Offense, 2024 vs. 2023 Comparison

	2024 Value	2024 Rank		2023 Value	2023 Rank
wRC+	87	26th		97	17th
R	699	16th		783	9th
HR	174	19th		198	14th
SB	207	3rd		190	1st
AVG	.231	26th		.249	16th
OBP	.305	22nd		.327	10th
SLG	.388	21st		.420	12th

Aside from stolen bases, every key offensive metric declined and the Reds’ place in the pecking order fell. Trading for catcher Jose Trevino carries the potential for big improvement with that position group. The incumbent Tyler Stephenson is fine defensively but could face a 5-10% offensive pullback, losing up to 1 win of value in the process. Trevino shores up the catcher group quite well compared to Luke Maile’s lackluster defense (-5 DRS, -4 FRV) and anemic bat (49 wRC+). Even at a one-third timeshare with Stephenson, Jose adds about 30% over Maile’s bat and 10-12 runs saved. That and Matt McLain’s return to the field headline a firm defensive upgrade for the Reds.

Getting the Band Back Together

Matt McLain helps the club take a run at rekindling that 2023 magic. After all, the Reds offense was dead in the water without Elly De La Cruz doing batshit crazy stuff on the base paths. Despite succumbing to a 30%+ strikeout rate again, the young shortstop sprinted his way to a .339 OBP. Elly’s elite speed and 45%+ hard contact rate substantiate his career .350 BABIP. He’s one of the toughest outs in the MLB and a nightmare when on base. Projections put him at or slightly below last year’s .259/.339/.471 line with 50+ stolen bases.

“Man without a position” Spencer Steer is another potential catalyst for a productive lineup barring any long-term effects of his shoulder injury. His numbers shrunk by 20% from that hallmark 2023 season, in part due to a 58-point BABIP regression. The 27-year-old right-hander hit the ball even harder in 2024, paving the way for a 10% production increase. Spencer’s splits against lefties really took a hit much like third baseman Jeimer Candelario’s. He also suffered a BABIP dip from .292 to .257 in addition to less optimal plate discipline by his standards. Candelario is another +10% candidate whose projected net value increase combines with Steer’s to help mitigate Elly’s small recursion back down to earth. Don’t worry fellow Reds fans, he’s still up there in the clouds.

Although centerfielder TJ Friedl arguably peaked in 2023, last year’s injury setbacks and BABIP cratering to .229 resulted in career lows across his .226/.310/.380 slash line and -0.2 WAR. He’s a little longer in the tooth and plays a physically demanding position, limiting his rebound potential. Yet Friedl’s rock bottom 88 wRC+ leaves another 10% of realistic upside. I see less optimism for his defense to get back to its 2023 highs or for him to be as prolific of a baserunner.

Role Playing

An interesting thing to monitor this season is Terry Francona’s bench/role player management. Christian Encarnacion-Strand still has promise as a powerful first base/DH type that can be coupled with a lefty like Gavin Lux. The 25-year-old missed the vast majority of the 2024 season with a wrist injury and carries plus-hitting expectations into 2025. Short-side platoon hitter Stuart Fairchild plays anywhere in the outfield without concern. Santiago Espinal is the infield version of Fairchild – or vice versa.

Left fielder Austin Hays is the Reds’ most understated signing of the offseason. The 29-year-old was squeezed out of Baltimore in a mid-season trade to the Phillies then was let go in free agency. 2024 was undoubtedly a tough year for him. A hamstring injury sidelined Hays for a couple weeks then a freak kidney infection held him out for most of September. His abbreviated season gives the impression of a right-handed platoon bat; however, Austin hit all pitchers well in the 2022-2023 seasons in which he played 140+ games.

Tito has flexibility on his roster but very limited depth in the minors. Infielder Noelvi Marte struggled to a .210/.248/.301 line after serving his PED suspension. That does not bode well for his future. Hope remains with outfielder Will Benson if his offseason swing improvements pan out. Benson was an under-the-radar catalyst in 2023, hitting .297/.389/.549 against right-handers then slumped 65% in that split last year. Now he’s stuck in a logjam unless that offseason work pops in Spring Training. Our adjustments for the Reds offense come to a positive 3-5% with gains on both sides of their splits. It’s a solid step back toward that promising 2023 season but likely a bit short.

— Rotation —

Starting pitching has been this club’s weak spot for over a decade. Outside of the shortened 2020 and 2021 seasons led by the trio of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle the Reds have struggled to assemble a plus rotation. Cincinnati has put their young talent to work recently and the results are starting to show. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, and Graham Ashcraft battled through a disappointing season alongside veteran acquisitions Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas. The latter was dealt at the trade deadline after a rough first half in the Queen City; Martinez served the club so well that he received – and accepted – a qualifying offer to return in 2025.

The Farm System At Work

2017 #2 overall pick Hunter Greene emerged as Cincinnati’s most valuable member of this crop with three MLB seasons under his belt. He notched career bests in volume (26 starts, 150.1 IP), hard contact (32.0%), and ERA (2.75) last season valued at 3.8 WAR. Greene will battle regression from 2024’s low home run rate and .237 BABIP that led to a higher 3.47 FIP/4.19 xFIP. Like many of us Reds fans, Hunter agrees that “it’s time to win” in 2025 even though the front office has not done much to support that mindset. His path to staying in the 3+ WAR range is more volume and further progression of his new splitter to keep hitters off balance.

Fellow first-round pick Nick Lodolo struggled with injury setbacks yet still managed to set workload highs of 21 starts and 115.1 innings. Unfortunately, four trips to the IL interrupted the young left-hander’s development after a lost 2023 season primarily due to leg issues. Lodolo can notch another 2+ WAR season with sub-4.00 stuff after last year’s 4.76 ERA, 3.95 FIP/3.95 xFIP. A clean Spring Training ramping into a consistent regular season is the prerequisite for growth. Given Lodolo’s track record, expectations should be modest with room for upside via a healthier 2025.

25-year-old southpaw Andrew Abbott missed the final month of 2024 after progressing into a 25-start, 138.0-inning year two. Abbott’s challenge is operating in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park without a two-seamer or effective swing-and-miss stuff. By inducing weaker contact, he has firmly outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA in both sub-4.00 ERA seasons. Understanding the implied regression to those mid-4.00 metrics, Andrew is projected to add to last year’s 1.1 WAR with a couple more starts around the 5.5 innings/start mark.

Backfilling the Rotation

Cincinnati has enough starting pitcher candidates to put guys like Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers into more suitable relief roles. Nick Martinez parlayed his post-Japan tenure with San Diego into a pair of one-year contracts with the Reds. He set a personal high for innings in an MLB season with 142.1 by starting in 16 games and making 26 relief appearances. Three straight seasons of sub-3.50 ERAs benefitted from impressive command across Nick’s broad arsenal. Questions about Martinez sustaining impressive run suppression numbers mark his projections down by 1-2 wins.

Now we get to the offseason splash move that brought right-hander Brady Singer in from the Royals. The 28-year-old has two more years of team control remaining as he enters his sixth season as an MLB starter. Long story short, Singer is a 2-3 WAR sinker/slider pitcher who typically generates close to 50% ground ball contact. That suits the ballpark fairly well, as does his low walk rate around 7%. Perhaps even more importantly, Singer made 29 starts in 2023 and 32 last season – both carrying a 5.5+ inning/start average. Cincinnati needs innings from the rotation and that’s what Greene, Abbott, and Singer can do. The mix of negative regression candidates and those expected to take steps forward generates a similar valuation to 2024’s group with limited upside due to increased workloads across the board.

MLB Top 100 prospect Rhett Lowder is knocking on the door again after debuting on August 30th. Expect to see much more from the righty after six starts of 1.17 ERA, 3.10 FIP/4.73 xFIP effectiveness. Lowder is known for solid command and keeping the ball on the ground. Strikeouts aren’t a huge part of his game though – yet, anyhow. Development of fellow prospects Connor Phillips and Chase Petty could lead to doses of MLB playing time with limited expectations.

— Bullpen —

The Reds are faced with a challenging bullpen situation after another unimpressive year in relief. Closer Alexis Diaz went from a formidable swing-and-miss hammer in 2023 to a pedestrian middle relief-type. Fastball velocity slumped and the slider lost its bite, leading to an ERA inflation of nearly a whole run. Strikeouts fell from 30.1% to 22.7% while sporting a 12%+ walk rate. Ground balls down, whiffs down, and home runs up. Those are bad trends for a pitcher; damning ones for a closer. The worst part about it is the consensus projection to stay around the 4.00 mark. Can Alexis buck that outlook with improved focus and preparation this offseason? Francona sure as hell hopes so.

That’s not the only issue to address this spring. Big strikeout right-hander Fernando Cruz was traded to the Yankees on the heels of two straight 1+ WAR seasons in relief. Counter to being a 60+ inning workhorse who delivered 35%+ strikeout rates, Cruz was hit hard and got punished by the long ball last year. Regardless, Fernando has been one of the more important producers in the Reds bullpen and leaves big shoes to fill in 2025.

Veteran Emilio Pagan figures to assume the right-handed setup man role after tough sledding in last year’s Cincinnati debut. The double-edged sword with Pagan is solid command and swing-and-miss stuff coupled with an obscene home run rate. GABP is a tough park to pitch in when you give up 50% hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Just look at his home/away splits. The organization hopes that 27-year-old Tony Santillan works his way out of repeated back and leg injuries to become the 60+ inning hammer that Cruz was. His 3.00 ERA and 2.73 FIP/2.51 xFIP in 29 appearances benefitted from a 5.11 K/BB ratio that many are skeptical of him maintaining. Santillan’s road could be bumpier if that ratio shrinks and his hard contact/home run rates do not.

Lefties Abound and Rotation Converts

This unit has a nice mix of qualified left-handed relievers with the addition of Taylor Rogers. He fits Cincinnati’s mid-30’s, ground ball contact mold for their southpaw contingent. The upper-3.00s group of Rogers, Sam Moll, and Brent Suter is more than serviceable in their home ballpark. Nothing spectacular by any means, yet this trio gives Francona plenty of options to navigate his bullpen over a long season.

Cincy has a long list of non-roster invitees in play, although their opportunities took a hit when veteran workhorse Scott Barlow was signed in February. Familiar faces Alex Young and Ian Gibaut are on the NRI list; however, the club intends to implement Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers as long relievers/swingmen. Spiers was used as a starter and followed an opener throughout the 2024 season in his first full year in the Majors. His broad arsenal suits him for a multi-inning role rather than typical middle relief. Ashcraft jumps sides after serving as a rotation piece in his first three seasons. The thought process circulating this offseason is how the 27-year-old righty’s stuff can be lethal when not spreading his effort out over 5+ innings. Spring Training could offer some insight into whether this is a hope or a reality.

Finally, what bullpen role will Nick Martinez play this season? He straddled the line successfully as both a starter and reliever much like the previous two seasons upon returning from Japan. Injuries elsewhere in the rotation will keep him occupied until Rhett Lowder locks in a spot. But Nick was so valuable shouldering 2+ inning outings in 14 of his 26 relief appearances. It’s an unusual role but one in which Martinez has thrived, producing three straight 100+ inning seasons by playing both ends. The pessimism with the Reds bullpen is understandable if the high-leverage group does not rise to the occasion. We have to mark this group down by a couple wins based on indications that last year’s 4.09 ERA does not improve. Keep an eye on Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan as under-the-radar upside arms who could keep this bullpen in the mid-pack range.

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Pittsburgh Pirates 2025 Win Total: Open 78.5, Now 76.5

2024 Result: Over 74.5 (76-86 / Pythag: 73)

The hype is definitely real when it comes to National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes. He obviously set a high bar in his first MLB season, providing a much-needed spark in the Steel City around their baseball club. Unlike finding a star quarterback in the making, a single pitcher cannot carry a team by himself over a 162-game season. It’s been a long nine seasons since the Pirates finished in the top three of the NL Central, though the tide may be turning. Will this newfound fire elevate them up the divisional pecking order?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• A Heaney (SP – LHP)
• T Pham (OF)
• A Frazier (INF)
• T Mayza (RP – LHP)
• C Ferguson (RP – LHP)
• E Valdez (INF)
• S Horwtiz (2B)

Subtractions:

• L Ortiz (SP – RHP)
• B De La Cruz (OF)
• C Joe (OF/1B)
• C Grandal (C)
• A Chapman (RP – LHP)
• J Beeks (RP – LHP)
• M A Taylor (CF)
• R Tellez (1B)
• E Olivares (OF)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 68 – 80

— Rotation —

You gotta love it when a plan comes together. Pittsburgh’s homegrown trio of starting pitchers Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones combined for 8.3 WAR, a value higher than what the entire rotation mustered in each of the four previous full seasons. Everything about the 2024 unit as a whole rated mid-pack. But that’s not what the hype surrounding the Pirates rotation is all about. It’s about taking another step towards becoming a top ten group and making the entire team competitive in a wide open NL Central.

Hyping Up the Big Three

#1 overall pick of the 2023 draft Paul Skenes needs no introduction for most of you. Despite getting called up on May 11th and making “only” 23 starts, Skenes was power rated 7th among all MLB starting pitchers last season. 16 of the rookie’s 23 starts went 6+ innings for an average depth of 5.78 innings/start. Impressive. So were his 1.96 ERA, 2.44 FIP/2.54 xFIP, and 5.31 K/BB ratio. By the way, over half of the balls put in play were on the ground. The 23-year-old has a legit five pitch arsenal featuring a slider with a ton of horizontal movement and close to a 15 mph differential between his heater. What’s on deck? An ERA around 3.00 across 30 starts for a WAR that could top 5.0.

Fellow rookie Jared Jones hit a bumpier road when a lat strain sidelined him for a couple months. Before the 23-year-old went on the IL July 4th, he posted a 3.56 ERA and 3.65 FIP/3.68 xFIP in 16 starts. 9 of those starts went for 6+ innings. Upon return, the shine wore off and the righty’s numbers inflated to 5.87 ERA and 4.76 FIP/3.95 xFIP. Projections in the upper-3.00s over 25-30 starts would increase his value from 1.8 WAR into the 2-3 range.

Those two rising stars take some of the spotlight off of the rotation’s elder statesman Mitch Keller. Back-to-back seasons with 30+ starts and 178+ innings have propped up this rotation until now. Sure, Keller is expected to produce another 30/180 campaign with low-4.00 effectiveness. But he no longer needs to be the man of the group. What does that mean for his projections? No clue. Mitch doesn’t do much spectacularly other than pitch deep into games and keep a reasonable walk rate with solid command. They could do a lot worse. Chalk Mitch Keller up for a fourth straight 2+ WAR season.

Pulling Up the Rear

As things stand today, left-hander Bailey Falter and free agent signee Andrew Heaney figure to start the 2025 season as the 4th & 5th rotation arms. They are mid-4.00 producers with differing concerns. Falter is a 5.08 inning/start pitcher who has shown the ability to go deep. The flip side is the frequency at which he doesn’t get through the 5th inning. Neither are prolific strikeout pitchers and Heaney has struggled with home runs throughout his career. Each pencil out as 1 WAR pitchers; Falter can be transitioned to the bullpen if all goes well with the latest flock of starting pitcher talent. They simply need to handle their business for the rotation to improve by 1-2 wins in 2025.

General manager Ben Cherington moved on from veteran left-hander Martin Perez at the trade deadline then dealt Luis Ortiz this winter in a three-team deal that yielded infielder Spencer Horwitz. That position of strength is rooted in abundant talent rising through the minor league ranks. All of them are Pittsburgh draft picks too. The one exception is Johan Oviedo, who came from the Cardinals system and missed all of 2024 rehabbing from offseason Tommy John surgery.

Non-roster invitee Bubba Chandler tops Pittsburgh’s prospect list for 2025 and is all but a lock to join the rotation this year. He may not burst onto the scene like Skenes and Jones but will work towards becoming a mainstay of the 2026 group. Ground-baller Braxton Ashcraft’s minor league season finished with a 2.84 ERA and 2.92 FIP/3.16 xFIP. More time in AAA will sharpen him for an MLB debut later in the year. Thomas Harrington’s strong command across his broad repertoire has gained attention as nearly MLB-ready. And he may get there with a big Spring Training showing. The future is undoubtedly bright with the Pirates’ starting pitcher pipeline.

— Bullpen —

I often joke how the histories of the Reds and Pirates have often paralleled each other since the 1970s. They’ve gone through similar periods of success and even longer stretches of irrelevance. Now that Oneil Cruz is relocated to center field, the two teams lost the extremely tall and fast shortstop parallel. Not to worry, the teams’ bullpens experienced very similar phenomenons in the form of closers losing their edges as Cincinnati’s Alexis Diaz hit the skids in lock step with Pittsburgh’s David Bednar. The Pirates’ relief corps as a whole struggled to a fourth-worst 4.49 ERA and below-average 61.4% save conversion rate.

Bednar’s command went up in smoke, sinking the effectiveness of all three pitches and inflating his numbers to unprecedented levels. Those command woes cut previous seasons’ K/BB ratio by about half to 2.07, ultimately pushing 2023’s 2.00 ERA and 2.53 FIP/3.86 xFIP up to 5.77 ERA and 4.80 FIP/4.87 xFIP. I have not stumbled on any hints of this being a physical issue, so projecting Bednar closer to 2023’s mid-3.00s xFIP is a safe way to play him this season. He’s a 1-2 WAR high-leverage piece if he snaps back to sub-3.00 levels. Otherwise, manager Derek Shelton again has to pull the plug on him as closer.

Musical Chairs

Aside from the David Bednar situation, the Buccos’ relief unit retains much of its firepower. Aroldis Chapman, who assumed most of the closer duties after Bednar’s demotion, moves on to Boston after posting the largest innings count (61.4) of the group. Personnel came and went throughout the season, providing Shelton with good looks at several guys slated for the front end in 2025:

• Dennis Santana put his best foot forward moving from the Yankees, proving to be a workhorse with four strong pitches.
• Colin Holderman logged two straight 50+ inning seasons with sub-4.00 effectiveness.
• Carmen Mlodzinski outperformed his FIP/xFIP again with plenty of ground balls and better off-balance stuff.

It’s safe to say that this unit is a work in progress, especially with David Bednar’s uncertainty. Aroldis Chapman may have taken his 14.7% walk rate with him but there are multiple relievers still around who struggled with free passes. Colin Holderman, Kyle Nicolas, and Joey Wentz all posted 10%+ rates without Chapman-level strikeouts. Free agent Caleb Ferguson should deliver a positive impact as a ground ball pitcher who can strike out batters. Plus Hunter Stratton is expected to return from a freak accident that ruptured his patella tendon (I was at that game…what a rough break for the dude). With this much uncertainty, our initial adjustment is minor but subject to change as the high-leverage group settles out this spring.

— Position Players —

You have to go back prior to the shortened 2020 season to find a Pirates lineup that exceeded 90 wRC+. Pittsburgh employed a host of outfielders in the hopes of jumpstarting the offense with negligible effect. The revolving door of outfield personnel amounted to a league-low 77 wRC+ and second-worst -1.6 WAR. It certainly did not help that trade acquisitions Bryan De La Cruz and Edward Olivares combined for -2.0 WAR. Michael A Taylor was exceptional as usual playing center field but slashed an anemic .193/.253/.290. Even 2023’s key players Jack Suwinski and Connor Joe declined last season, leading to the latter’s non-tender.

When the going gets tough, sometimes you need a shakeup. And that’s exactly what the Pirates did with star shortstop Oneil Cruz. The 6’7″ Cruz was moved to center field at the end of August where he played out the remainder of the season. His struggles at shortstop and the club’s lack of a viable centerfielder who can hit made it worth the gamble. Did Cruz excel in the field as well as Michael A Taylor? Not even close but far from terrible. At least he’s a +10% or better hitter with a 3-WAR floor.

Unless Oneil Cruz is a disaster out there this season the Pirates’ outfield is in good hands with another +10% hitter in left field, Bryan Reynolds. The 30-year-old lost his centerfielder chops a couple years ago but has found a comfortable home where he can provide 2+ WAR primarily with his bat. As for the other corner, enter stopgap free agent Tommy Pham who played for seven different clubs over the past three seasons. Pham’s up-and-down past leads him to a timeshare role with lefty hitters like Joshua Palacios and, if all goes well in Spring Training, Jack Suwinski. At least the 2025 outfield has just one questionable position instead of two.

Getting the Infield In Order

Pittsburgh’s constant on the dirt is third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, although back issues continue to plague the 28-year-old. His fielding grades were still firmly in positive territory despite taking a small hit due to injury. Most concerning was the drastic drop from being a league-average hitter in 2023 to 2024’s .233/.283/.290 slash line. Will that reduced power and consistency at the plate give way to a 20-30% increase? That’s still below average yet marks a significant 1-2 win bump.

With Oneil Cruz in the outfield, flexible infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa stands as the regular shortstop. He plays well at any spot on the dirt though his batting splits are inconsistent from year to year. Think of him as a stopgap at short with multiple viable infielders on the roster like Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, and old friend Adam Frazier. Derek Shelton has his work cut out for him in finding what combination works best for the middle infield. Second baseman Gonzales has the highest probability of the bunch to cross the “average hitter” threshold this season on the heels of extended playing time.

Addressing Weaknesses

The lineup’s shortcoming against right-handed pitching was on full display in 2024. A .232/.298/.365 slash line put them in the unfortunate company of the White Sox and Rockies. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz alone cannot carry the Pirates against righties – an area where they could really stand to have Joshua Palacios step up. Rowdy Tellez was not the answer at first base they needed him to be. This year, former Blue Jay infielder Spencer Horwitz gets the nod at first base after slashing .285/.380/.484 against right-handed pitching. Horwitz is projected at a 30% surplus over Tellez worth close to 2 wins. His current issue is a delayed start due to wrist surgery. Getting rid of dead weight and adding a guy like Horwitz to shore up a glaring weak spot are the types of moves that can add 4-7% offensively.

Nick Yorke’s name is circulating as an impact prospect this season. The original plan was to get reps in right field. Now things are less clear with Tommy Pham signed. Pham is the kind of guy who gets flipped at the trade deadline anyway, making him a likely placeholder until the 23-year-old is ready. Yorke is also a right-handed hitter but his knock is shaky defense at second base or in a corner. Making Nick the “plan B” might not be the worst thing for now, though he ended last year on a good note and could pop in Spring Training. He’s a player to look out for.

Finally comes the catcher group where the Pirates were not half bad. They move on from Yasmani Grandal, whose 1.4-WAR season was a nice surprise at the age of 35. They’ll go with former Giants prospect Joey Bart as the primary backstop with some combination of Jason Delay, Henry Davis, and Endy Rodriguez behind him. Bart was exceptional at the plate (.265/.337/.462; 121 wRC+) and still projects solidly with a wRC+ in the 90s and 1+ WAR value held back by defensive uncertainty. Delay is not much of a hitter but defends well. It’s Endy who should be in a 50/50 timeshare with Bart unless his elbow is not 100%. A small loss in fielding effectiveness is possible with Grandal gone but Delay and Rodriguez make up for it. Otherwise, the full transition in center field from Michael A Taylor to Oneil Cruz stands as Pittsburgh’s key negative defensive adjustment.

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2025 NL Central Projected Standings

1. Chicago Cubs (84-78)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (77-85)
4. Cincinnati Reds (75-87)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)

March Means Opening Day

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