For a few months anyhow, the Seattle Mariners looked to be the cream of the AL West crop. Then things went sideways. Trust the Houston Astros to take advantage of the stumble and push their way back to a seventh division crown in the last eight seasons. No thanks to the defending World Champion Texas Rangers’ failure to launch from the quicksand of regression. As for California’s two representatives, we were foolishly long on one and rewarded by the other. Will the siren’s song of the 2025 AL West futures call us back for more?
Another season in the books marks The BetCrushers’ 6th Annual Divisional Previews for the 2025 MLB season. We go as deep as we can to find value in the futures markets – with a special focus on regular season win totals. It’s a labor of love for a good purpose. We appreciate you all! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)
2024 Division Winner: Houston Astros
2024 AL West Final Standings
- Houston Astros (88-73)
- Seattle Mariners (85-77)
- Texas Rangers (78-84)
- Oakland Athletics (69-93)
- Los Angeles Angels (63-99)
Houston Astros 2025 Win Total: Open 87.5, Now 86.5
2024 Result: Under 91.5 (88-73 / Pythag: 90)
Although the Astros extended their dominance over the AL West, their impressive streak of seven straight American League Championship Series appearances came to an end. Payroll and other considerations led to offseason moves that shook up the roster, seeing familiar names like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, and Ryan Pressly head elsewhere. Change is certainly in the air in Houston. Even the stadium has a new name: Daikin Park.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- B Rodgers (2B)
- C Walker (1B)
- I Paredes (3B)
- H Wesneski (RHP)
Subtractions:
- R Pressly (RP – RHP)
- K Tucker (OF)
- A Bregman (3B)
- Y Kikuchi (SP – LHP)
- J Verlander (SP – RHP)
- C Ferguson (RP – LHP)
- H Neris (RP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 87 – 89
— Position Players —
Continuity has defined Houston’s position player corps for a number of years, enabling this team to excel despite losing big stars like Carlos Correa and George Springer. The activity this winter was more intense than usual considering the loss of two key contributors, Kyle Tucker and 2024 Gold Glover Alex Bregman. The 30-year-old’s ninth season in Houston was rock solid as usual. Tucker’s season was cut in half by a foul ball off of his shin but his numbers were otherwise elite. So what becomes of this top ten group without these catalysts?
Months before free agent Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, general manager Dana Brown found a replacement on the Cubs roster. Isaac Paredes was brought to Houston along with right-hander Hayden Wesneski while negotiations with Bregman were ongoing. The cost? 3x All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker. The Bregman-Paredes swap is close in terms of value, though not a pure 1:1 exchange. Both are terrific on-base guys who are served well by Daikin Park’s Crawford boxes in left field. Paredes should net the lineup about 5-10% over Bregman’s farewell season though he cedes that value back in the field.
Kyle Tucker is a perennial 5 WAR player since bursting onto the scene in 2020. Strong fielding more often than not with a +40% bat is the ideal combination for a corner outfielder. Without Tucker, the Astros plan to fill right field with Chas McCormick and get creative in left. McCormick is anticipated to rebound back to an average bat after suffering through an injury-filled 2024. Even so, that’s still a 3+ win differential from Tucker’s value. Plus Houston has one less left-handed bat in the lineup without him.
The Domino Effect
Centerfielder Jake Meyers was pushed into the largest timeshare of his career with Tucker and McCormick missing significant time. His defense is superb at the expense of productive at-bats. Ideally, Meyers is platooned to cover his weakness against right-handed pitching. Except there’s one glaring problem: Houston’s only left-handed bats that play the outfield are Yordan Alvarez and Ben Gamel. Manager Joe Espada’s plan for relocating Jose Altuve to left field alleviates the need for a platoon approach in left field. Mauricio Dubon or Brendan Rodgers will backfill at second base with better defense.
Let’s come back to those muddied waters in a minute. It is important to note that Houston finally solved its first base problem with free agent veteran Christian Walker. This is a position that has not yielded a replacement level or better grade for the Astros since Yuli Gurriel led the charge in 2021. Walker won the NL Gold Glove three years running and reliably puts up +20% as a hard hitter who gets on base plenty. The net change at first base with Walker playing nearly every day? About 4-5 wins to the good. Christian’s improvement with the glove greatly overshadows the drop at third base without Alex Bregman, yielding a better overall defense than last season.
Christian Walker’s strengths include no true splits weakness, freeing up left-handed hitter Jon Singleton for additional DH time when Yordan Alvarez plays the field. But an Altuve move to left field occupies that position for a majority of the season and locks in the outfield configuration on most days. Regardless, Yordan is a +70% hitter who delivers 5 WAR with his bat alone. Plus the Astros have stability with 3 WAR shortstop Jeremy Pena and 4+ WAR catching tandem Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini. This is not a great running team but there’s enough firepower in the lineup to keep the offense only 3-4% short of their 2024 numbers.
— Rotation —
Houston isn’t necessarily known for having an elite rotation. Although that 2022 World Series Champion bunch was as good as any that season. What this club has done is assemble top ten groups in each of the last four years. 880.2 IP (7th) with a 3.81 ERA (9th) briefly sums up last season’s efforts. And the best thing about it is their four best producers return for 2025.
HOU Selected Returning Starting Pitchers (2024)
| Starts/IP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | BABIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F Valdez (L) | 28/176.1 | 2.91 | 3.25/3.08 | .276 | 3.6 |
| H Brown (R) | 30/165.0 | 3.55 | 3.60/3.54 | .307 | 3.1 |
| R Blanco (R) | 29/165.1 | 2.83 | 4.20/4.14 | .219 | 2.1 |
| S Arrighetti (R) | 28/142.2 | 4.61 | 4.17/3.98 | .323 | 1.6 |
Framber Valdez is an established low-3.00s starter who topped 4 WAR in the 2022 and 2023 seasons with a wicked sinker/curve combo. The ground ball specialist earns stable projections with enough swing-and-miss and 6+ inning/start reliability. Hunter Brown’s command of his full arsenal shined through a monster second year in the rotation. Expect more of the same in 2025 from the 26-year-old.
Stiff regression squares off against Ronel Blanco, especially on the heels of a 2.8% swinging strike rate decline. He walked the .220 BABIP tightrope over a full season in the rotation and will shave a half-win with 4.00+ numbers. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti bucked a first half 5.63 ERA and .344 BABIP, finishing strong with a 3.18 ERA and 3.78 FIP/3.55 xFIP after the break. 140+ innings at low-4.00s effectiveness keeps him in 1+ WAR territory. That’s a 10+ WAR top four without any unrealistic expectations…other than everyone staying healthy. This foundation will help the rotation as a whole tread water as a top ten unit once again.
Digging Deep
An understated piece of the Kyle Tucker trade, 27-year-old righty Hayden Wesneski is in line for the #5 spot come Opening Day. He’s another 4.00+ arm that the Astros intend to stretch out as a starter until reinforcements arrive. Espada will find him a bullpen role at that point to keep kicking the tires on the kid. He has four more years of team control remaining, after all. Starting pitching depth is interesting with the capable Luis Garcia making his way back from Tommy John surgery in April. Lance McCullers is allegedly on track for a late April comeback from flexor tendon surgery. Several projections peg him for a sub-4.00 outlook, though your guess is as good as mine on what to expect considering his two year absence from MLB action.
Cristian Javier and JP France will return from rehab at some point, through no sooner than the All-Star Break. 25-year-old right-hander Ryan Gusto could also surprise folks and join the rotation this season. Sustained success for the starting pitching group depends on adequately replacing the 2.1 WAR from the Justin Verlander/Yusei Kikuchi duo. They combined for 27 starts and 150.1 innings with drastically different effectiveness. This is where Wesneski, McCullers, and Garcia come in play to support the rotation’s floor.
— Bullpen —
Unlike the rotation’s softer fall from its 2022 peak, the Astros bullpen continued to decline. They had a relatively light workload yet failed to capitalize when it mattered most. The result: a ho-hum 29-26 record and the MLB’s tenth-most saves (43) coming at a subpar 62.3% conversion rate. Closer Josh Hader nailed down 34 of his 38 attempts; Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu combined for 5 saves in 20 tries. But it wasn’t quite that cut-and-dried. Hader coughed up a 3.80 ERA that reset his baseline projection to 3.00+ as he turns 31. Don’t worry, the lanky lefty is still the guy you want entering the game in the 9th inning.
Josh Hader being firmly entrenched as the go-to closer enabled 36-year-old Ryan Pressly’s salary dump. He was shipped to the Cubs with his better days in an Astros uniform having become a thing of the past. Setup man Bryan Abreu will be joined by quad-A reliever Tayler Scott and rookie left-hander Bryan King for high-leverage duties. This unit projects to be top-heavy with key producers Hader and Abreu in front of a replacement level group from there down. I hate to shortchange a defending division winner’s rotation; however, we have them penciled in for more mediocrity with some upside if Scott and King take steps forward.
Seattle Mariners 2025 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 85.5
2024 Result: Under 86.5 (85-77 / Pythag: 89)
Going from a 10 game lead in early June to the outside looking into the postseason, the Mariners finished the 2024 campaign as one of the more disappointing stories. Losing the grip on things cost manager Scott Servais his job after 8+ seasons at the helm. Another former MLB catcher Dan Wilson took the reins and finished strong with a 21-13 record but it was too little, too late. The AL Central caught fire and squeezed Seattle out by a single game. Are they geared up to make a deep playoff run with their stout rotation, or did the front office not do enough to address the team’s weaknesses?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- D Solano (INF)
Subtractions:
- J Rojas (INF)
- A Voth (RP – RHP)
- J Turner (1B/DH)
- L Urias (INF)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 86 – 88
— Rotation —
When you think of the Seattle Mariners these days, starting pitching is the first thing that should come to mind. For two years running the M’s have rolled out a top five rotation leading the league in innings pitched. Their league-leading 3.38 ERA certainly was aided by a very pitcher-friendly home ballpark but many other metrics tell us these guys are good regardless. Just watch George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo pitch and the eye test says the same thing. Add in the fact that Seattle starters yielded a 4.9% walk rate that led the league by 1.3%. Opponents had to earn every run they could muster from this group.
Running It Back
Seattle’s Opening Day starting five has a seamless transition from 2024’s full-season rotation. Projected #5 starter Bryan Woo worked through a couple IL stints to grind out 121.1 innings over 22 starts, indirectly splitting the season with Emerson Hancock. Woo dazzled in MLB season two with a 2.89 ERA and 3.40 FIP/3.75 xFIP. Regression from a 2.8% walk rate and .240 BABIP still leaves him in mid-3.00 territory, which would not lose value from last year’s Woo-Hancock combination.
The “other” four returning starting pitchers each made 30 or more starts and logged 175 or greater innings, accumulating 13.4 of the rotation’s 15.2 WAR. Just as impressive as their ability to stay on the field was the outcome of their efforts:
SEA Pitchers With 30+ Starts (2024)
| Starts/IP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | BABIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Kirby (R) | 33/191.0 | 3.53 | 3.26/3.58 | .291 | 4.2 |
| L Gilbert (R) | 33/208.2 | 3.23 | 3.27/3.11 | .236 | 4.1 |
| B Miller (R) | 31/180.1 | 2.94 | 3.58/3.85 | .237 | 2.8 |
| L Castillo (R) | 30/175.1 | 3.64 | 3.91/3.82 | .285 | 2.3 |
As great as having four 30+ start pitchers roll over to the next season is, expecting them all to dodge injuries again is typically a big ask. In fact, George Kirby was shut down with nonstructural shoulder inflammation on the very day I wrote this team preview. Regardless, ace Logan Gilbert intends to post a third 30-start/190-inning campaign in the mid-3.00s. Supreme command of his broad arsenal keeps runners off the bases and supports consistency across his profile. Sub-5.0% walk rates in each of the last two seasons as well as three straight seasons of 32+ starts and 185+ innings is remarkable.
Bryce Miller is on a similar trajectory as Kirby and Gilbert, exhibiting good command with a four-pitch mix. With one less season under his belt, projections start around his cohorts’ and push the upper-3.00s for a 2+ WAR valuation. Not to be forgotten, former Cincinnati Reds standout Luis Castillo quietly delivered his fifth 30+ start season at mid-3.00s effectiveness. Now 32 years old, Castillo should push 3 WAR with minor questions about an uptick in hard contact and dropping below a 27% strikeout rate for only the third time in his career. What a “boring” 12+ WAR group of starting pitchers they have up there in the Emerald City.
A Shallow Foundation
Bryan Woo’s elbow injury at the onset of the 2024 season and midseason hamstring injury urge caution to projecting a 30-start workload. Otherwise, he exhibits the Seattle Mariners’ starting pitcher profile of elite command. Plus Woo ratcheted up his depth of start by a half-inning over his rookie season. Workload uncertainty and .240 BABIP regression keep his outlook in the mid-3.00s around 2 WAR. Not bad at all for a #5 starter whatsoever.
Otherwise, the glaring problem with the M’s rotation is depth. 25-year-old Emerson Hancock is arguably a tier or two below these guys at replacement level. Sub-15% strikeout rate and getting squared up a little too much either leaves room for improvement or raises concern if one of Seattle’s primary starters hit the IL for an extended period. Our baseline outlook for the rotation is around 2 wins below last season with some upside if serious injury misses this group again. George Kirby’s Spring Training setback is a prime example.
— Bullpen —
For all intents and purposes, the Mariners bullpen was fine in many respects. The pros: a ninth-best ERA (3.71) and fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.9%). The cons: a 26-27 record and only 34 saves at a 60.7% rate. Part of the issue was the struggle to find consistency with the group. Of the 14 relievers to pitch 10+ innings, only 3 broke through the 50-inning threshold.
Closer Andres Munoz’ 2.12 ERA, 33.2% strikeout rate, and 52.4% ground ball rate looks great on face value. The righty gets plenty of whiffs and keeps hard contact low. Plus he has become quite reliable in save situations the last couple seasons (35/43, 81.4%). That makes Andres’ 7-14 record in those years a bit of a head scratcher. What the 26-year-old lacks in command is made up for with sizzling stuff, headlined by a filthy slider and fastball velocity. Although headwinds from a .208 BABIP face Munoz this season, consensus projections point to another sub-3.00 campaign for Seattle’s closer.
Bounceback Candidates?
Ground ball specialist Gregory Santos could not stay healthy last season between an early lat strain and midseason biceps inflammation. The M’s traded for him last winter with the intent to beef up the high-leverage crew. Projections ranging from decent to closer-quality give hope to a resurgent front end in 2025, as would the return of Matt Brash from Tommy John surgery. His 3.06 ERA, 2.26 FIP/3.05 xFIP 2023 campaign was massive, especially when factoring in 70.2 innings over 78 appearances. Upon return this spring, Brash should pair up with Santos as two catalysts for 1+ wins of improvement.
Recapturing some injury luck will go a long way in 2025. But, for the most part, that is out of anyone’s control in particular. The Mariners found that Trent Thornton can be a very productive reliever after his first full season in Seattle. He and fellow former Blue Jay Tayler Saucedo figure to be important sub-4.00 go-tos in the middle innings. This group looks good on paper with optimistic outlooks for bulk guys like Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier supporting the high-leverage crew. And there’s solid young depth at AAA Tacoma ready to take their bites at more MLB playing time.
— Position Players —
Gauging Seattle’s offense is almost as tricky as it is for Colorado, but for the opposite reason. T-Mobile Park is the least hitter-friendly ballpark in the MLB and the Mariners’ home/road splits speak to Seattle’s climate and the park’s dimensions. Without adjusting for park factors, their raw numbers leave a lot to be desired. Second-lowest batting average above the White Sox and sixth-lowest slugging doesn’t sound like what an 85-win team would put up. A lack of power at T-Mobile is understandable given those conditions. As to why the Mariners struck out more, walked more, and stole more bases at home is somewhat unusual compared to previous seasons.
SEA Offensive Home/Road Splits (2024)
| R | HR | SB | BB% | K% | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 305 | 87 | 75 | 10.2% | 28.4% | .214/.307/.358 | 104 |
| Road | 371 | 98 | 65 | 8.7% | 25.3% | .234/.315/.392 | 103 |
| Season | 676 | 185 | 140 | 9.4% | 26.8% | .224/.311/.376 | 104 |
Our concern going into the 2024 season was the lineup being held back by regression from their biggest contributors. Their park-adjusted numbers were down 3% year-over-year due in part to steps back by Julio Rodriguez and especially JP Crawford. But this decline would have been considerably steeper without key second half upticks from Victor Robles and Luke Raley, as well as midseason acquisitions Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. Both additions upped their outputs after changing teams, providing the M’s with a much-needed shot in the arm.
Although Justin Turner is with the Cubs now, Randy Arozarena is under team control through the 2026 season and figures to be a pillar of this offense once again. His park-adjusted +20% bat joins Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as the lineup’s breadwinners. Julio’s slow start turned into a second half more in line with consensus projections for a 20% bump in 2025. The 2022 AL Rookie of the Year is expected to regain his 2022-2023 form and make a push for 6 WAR. This is noteworthy as he and catcher Cal Raleigh are major contributors both offensively and defensively. Together with Randy the trio has a 13+ WAR outlook that sets the table for their teammates.
A Little Help From Their Friends
It’s hard to say how long the Mariners can get away with Raleigh occupying more than 75% of the workload behind the plate. His bat – especially against righties – is a crucial component that fills the DH slot at times. Secondary backstop Mitch Garver’s defense pales in comparison and his inconsistent bat leaves projections to their best guesses. Rebounding from a .172/.286/.341 after a career-high 430 plate appearances calls for less time as DH and slightly better overall quality. Top catching prospect Harry Ford has yet to grind through AAA but should contend for Garver’s role in 2026.
Right fielder Victor Robles surged to a .328/.393/.467 line after the M’s claimed him off of waivers from the Nats last June. You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks that’s what Victor will produce this season with doubled playing time though. He still pencils out as a plus hitter with enough defensive value to help offset Arozarena’s poor fielding in left. Shortstop JP Crawford earns a 15-20% bump at the plate by staying healthy. Luke Raley could get a platoon partner in Donovan Solano to round out first base nicely while Dylan Moore provides depth all over the infield. This may be a stale position player corps on face value but has enough intrigue with last year’s acquisitions fully integrated into the game plan.
A point of emphasis for the 2025 season must be improving against left-handed pitching. Seattle tailed off sharply last year with this split as Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco underwhelmed. Polanco moves from second base to third in the absence of Josh Rojas, downgrading the position defensively. Some combination of rookie Ryan Bliss and veteran Donovan Solano backfills at second with a minor lift offensively and defensively. With a modest 10% improvement projected for Haniger, his glory days as a plus 10-20% bat appear to be over. I struggle to upgrade the offense significantly as a whole, though a markup correcting for some of last year’s drop against southpaw pitching makes more sense.
Texas Rangers 2025 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 86
2024 Result: Under 88 (78-84 / Pythag: 75)
Dust off the phrase from last year’s Rangers preview, “We all saw this one coming, right?” It was tongue-in-cheek after the Rangers spiked in 2023, riding the wave to the franchise’s first World Series Championship. Our outlook for the 2024 season was slightly lower, though nowhere near the reality of a 78-84 record in which they never truly challenged for the AL West title. So what’s the move? Flip the bullpen and squeeze in a few strategic additions. But were Chris Young’s moves enough to propel Texas back into the playoffs?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C Martin (RP – RHP)
- S Armstrong (RP – RHP)
- J Pederson (OF/DH)
- R Garcia (RP – LHP)
- H Milner (RP – LHP)
- J Webb (RP – RHP)
- J Burger (1B/3B)
- K Higashioka (C)
- R Contreras (RP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- N Lowe (1B)
- A Heaney (SP – LHP)
- K Yates (RP – RHP)
- D Robertson (RP – RHP)
- C Kelly (C)
- J Leclerc (RP – RHP)
- M Scherzer (SP – RHP)
- J Urena (SP – RHP)
- T Jankowski (OF)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 85 – 92
— Position Players —
2023 proved to be a best case scenario season for the Rangers offense with mainstays Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Nathaniel Lowe all going off. Throw rookie phenom Evan Carter’s late season outburst in with Mitch Garver’s strong second half and this club was destined to make noise in the postseason. Move ahead one year; Texas loses Garver to free agency as well as Carter and Josh Jung to prolonged injuries. And to make matters worse, production drops via big BABIP swings handcuff cornerstones Seager and Semien. It goes without saying that the ups and downs have been huge these last two seasons.
Fresh Season, Fresh Outlook
One notable loss this offseason is first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who was traded to the Nationals for reliever Robert Garcia. The left-handed hitter leaves behind a .265/.361/.401 slash line and strong defense that his replacement Jake Burger generally falls short of. This -1 win exchange dings the Rangers’ on-base attributes, left-handed splits, and fielding. Burger does add a bit more muscle to partially offset this.
His middle infield nieghbors project as a 9-10 WAR pair once again. Marcus Semien should find middle ground with his up-then-down BABIP over the last couple years, tacking on around 10%. The second baseman’s fielding could dip slightly at the age of 34 though. Recognizing this, manager Bruce Bochy is considering more rest days for the veteran in 2025. Shortstop Corey Seager is pegged for another ho-hum +40% season at the plate with his usual plus defense.
Kickstarters
Third baseman Josh Jung’s prolonged injuries kept him off the field for all but 46 games in 2024. His return as a plus hitter and defender is certainly a lift, though last year’s absence gave Josh Smith an opportunity for a boatload of playing time. Smith took the opportunity and ran with it, slashing .258/.337/.394 without yielding ground defensively at third base or shortstop. Bochy can insert Josh at multiple positions and not worry much about production falloff. There’s a lot of value in a flexible left-handed hitting infielder.
Young outfielders Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter still have a lot to prove in their early 20s. Carter’s back injury limited the encore to his eye-popping 2023 playoffs production. Projections make him a +10% hitter with strong on-base skills that mesh well with speed and solid fielding. Langford’s rookie season was a doozie, spanning 134 games primarily in left field. Defensive heroics – of which I was personally aggrieved by on at least two occasions – skew his +14 DRS grade although his true ability is still modestly plus. Langford hits the ball hard and has 10-20% upside at the plate in season two. This healthy duo can provide a 6+ WAR value as strong all-around players.
Stuffing the Lineup
Free agent Joc Pederson becomes Bochy’s go-to designated hitter against right-handed pitching. The DH spot’s anemic 65 wRC+ from a rotating cast of characters was their Achilles’ heel. Pederson posted career highs in several areas with the Diamondbacks, resulting in a monster 151 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR without playing an inning in the field. That’s a tough act to follow so expectations should be adjusted downward by about 20%. Joc still considerably improves the DH spot as the strong side of a platoon. Texas can add 4-6% to last year’s production with a larger bump to their right-handed split via the Pederson addition and Lowe/Burger tradeoff.
The catcher group is upgraded with veteran backup Kyle Higashioka coming over from San Diego. What he typically lacks in hitting is made up for with solid defense. Both of those areas were lacking as primary backstop Jonah Heim slipped to a -0.1 WAR value last year. Supposedly this was more of a mental issue than a physical one, stemming from a slow start and other family matters. Higgy and the switch-hitting Heim form a 3 WAR duo with Jonah’s rebound on both sides of the plate. Don’t be surprised to see him fit into the short-side DH role as a plus hitter against lefties.
Right fielder Adolis Garcia is another rebound candidate after a lapse of power and defense. Blame a nagging knee injury for the righty’s -0.2 WAR, a 4.8-win drop from his amazing 2023 campaign. Garcia’s fielding upgrade and Langford’s adjustments pencil out as a wash with upside. We make the overarching impact to the Rangers’ overall fielding slightly negative due to losing Nathaniel Lowe at first base. There’s a lot to like with the 2025 version of the position player corps, especially with a strong depth piece in Josh Smith offering plenty of support. Backup center fielder Leody Taveras was mentioned in trade rumors now that Langford and Carter are firmly entrenched. Losing him chips away at the team’s defensive and base running attributes.
— Rotation —
The rotation was hampered by injuries that exposed its less productive depth pieces. Fortunately the starting pitcher group enters the season with a clean slate. Look no further than Jacob deGrom and his two lost seasons in Texas. The back-to-back NL Cy Young Award winner has a clean bill of health and still projects as one of the best in the business around the 3.00 mark. It’s the workload aspect that creates uncertainty, not his ability. Will he get past the 20-start, 115-inning threshold? That’s the difference between 3 WAR and 4-5 WAR if deGrom can post up for 25+ starts.
Jon Gray fell to a 95.2-inning starter due to three IL stints and part-time duty in the bullpen. The righty is a hittable pitcher with good command who could split time again as starter and reliever, especially if he can’t keep his ERA out of the mid-4.00s. Plus there has been internal talk about Gray jumping into the closer role. Him not being an exceptional innings producer exacerbates the hole left by free agent Andrew Heaney, another 4.00+ starter. Heaney wasn’t the best either in terms of depth of his starts, yet he ate 157.2 innings in 31 starts valued at 2.2 WAR.
Tyler Mahle fills Heaney’s rotation spot, chasing his prolific 180.0-inning 2021 season in Cincinnati that earned him a trade to the Twins. Injuries derailed the last two years, challenging 2025’s workload expectations much like deGrom. Texas also loses Max Scherzer’s 9 starts and 9 more from Jose Urena, although the latter struggled in the rotation compared to better production in relief. Heaney, Scherzer, and Urena leave a combined 49 starts to account for this season.
Rallying the Troops
Those personnel losses and workload questions from recent injuries are challenges that Bruce Bochy ideally overcomes with younger arms. The front office did its part by re-signing ace Nathan Eovaldi to a three-year deal. His plus command and ground ball-generating stuff produced enough swings-and-misses to keep his ERA below 4.00 for each of the last five seasons. Another 29-start, 170-inning season is exactly what this rotation needs as a foundation for a stronger 2025.
27-year-old lefty Cody Bradford missed most of the first half with a lower back strain, undermining a good start to the season. Expectations for his third year in the MLB are muted with part of his workload expected to be in relief. Unless Bradford sets the world on fire in April, the understanding is top prospects Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are working toward larger rotation roles. Rocker has the highest ceiling of the two with a promising slider and sub-4.00 projection. Leiter’s command woes could keep him in AAA or make him more suitable for long relief. This spring, however, Leiter has looked much better than Rocker.
The general expectation for the Rangers rotation is improvement back to 2023 levels. But the recurring theme of underlying injury risk heightened by deGrom and Mahle could thrust other pitchers into uncomfortable positions. For example, Dane Dunning can be pulled out of the bullpen or retread Adrian Houser elevated out of AAA. There is a good dose of downside with this group but the benefits are significant barring multiple major setbacks.
— Bullpen —
If there has been any consistency with this team over the last couple seasons, it’s been in the bullpen. That’s not necessarily a good thing, especially as this unit took on more work last season. They were a bottom-five unit with respect to ERA, FIP, WAR, and walks. Yet the bullpen still converted an above-average 66.7% of save opportunities with David Robertson surprisingly responsible for 8 blown saves in 10 chances. Most of the relievers on the revolving door plan were the biggest contributors to the Rangers relievers’ high walk rate without bringing many strikeouts to the table.
President of Baseball Operations Chris Young said the third time is not a charm and promptly rebooted the bullpen. Swingman Dane Dunning looks to be the only returning reliever set to make the Opening Day roster. The list of key departures hit the front end hard, losing closer Kirby Yates and setup men David Robertson and Jose Leclerc. Those three accounted for 4.6 WAR, 193 appearances, and 200.1 innings. To put this into perspective, the bullpen as a whole was valued at 2.0 WAR.
Is a Clean House a Better House?
Bullpens are tough enough to gauge from one season to the next. Texas’s essentially starts from scratch with a new high-leverage trio of Chris Martin, Robert Garcia, and Jacob Webb. Martin’s second tour with the Rangers comes with mid-3.00 projections and limited workload around 50 innings. After all, he is 38 years old and doesn’t fit the prototypical closer profile being a prolific ground ball artist. Robert Garcia’s second MLB season was a sharp step forward across the board though. A fastball/changeup combo helped deliver a dominant 4.69 K/BB ratio. Weak contact, plenty of ground balls (46.8%), and a hefty swinging strike rate (13.2%) bode well for Garcia in season three to hit a mid-3.00s target.
Right-handers Jacob Webb and Shawn Armstrong signed cheap $1.25M one-year deals after their swinging strike rates fell by over 3% in 2024. That is especially troubling for Webb, who typically hovers around a 10% walk rate. Hoby Milner migrates from Milwaukee where he was a heavily-used left-hander who delivered tons of ground balls with superb command. The high-leverage arms don’t pack nearly the punch that the outgoing group did, though the experienced middle relievers should keep the bullpen from losing ground while adding upside through a stable foundation. It could work out to be a more consistent group that thrives behind a stronger offense.
The Athletics 2025 Win Total: Open 69.5, Now 72.5
2024 Result: Over 56.5 (69-93 / Pythag: 68)
As bad as the Angels team total miss was, Oakland did their part to smooth out our AL West futures. After squeezing out an impressive 69 wins on a league-low $61M payroll, America’s most hated MLB franchise owner finally opened the checkbook on the way to Sacramento. Now the formerly under the radar Athletics are tagged with a low-70s win total and an ultimatum from the MLBPA to spend some cash. Adding fuel to the team’s changing expectations is their home for the next few seasons: Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento. Less foul territory, an awkward outfield wall, and change in climate combine for a whole new ballgame compared to the Coliseum.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- L Urias (INF)
- J Leclerc (RP – RHP)
- G Urshela (3B)
- J Springs (SP – LHP)
- L Severino (SP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- J Boyle (SP – RHP)
- R Stripling (SP – RHP)
- A Toro (INF)
- S Alexander (RP – RHP)
- A Adams (RP – RHP)
- A Wood (SP – LHP)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 71 – 75
— Position Players —
Last year we asked the rhetorical question, “finding another 3-5 wins and a few percent of offense is not too much to ask…or is it?” Instead, the A’s tacked on double-digit overall gains at the plate while still wallowing in their defensive struggles. Recently-paid Brent Rooker played out of his mind (.293/.365/.562, 39 HR) alongside a quartet that took notable steps forward from 2023 to 2024. Can this crew maintain their momentum in the new season?
Athletics Offense (2023 vs. 2024)
| HR | SB | R | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 196 | 98 | 643 | .284 | .233/.301/.393 | 101 |
| 2023 | 171 | 149 | 585 | .276 | .223/.298/.370 | 88 |
Manager Mark Kotsay harnessed the lineup’s uptick in power by being less aggressive on the base paths – a contrarian approach in the larger base stealing environment – and more willing to let the bats do the talking. This was a significant departure from 2023’s 149 stolen bases at a 82.8% clip, most of which is attributed to Esteury Ruiz’ 67 bags. But Ruiz couldn’t hit and was ultimately relegated to a bench role before injuries derailed his season. Turns out, the station-to-station and big hit approach was just what the doctor ordered.
Brent Rooker’s monster numbers deserve a lot of credit for the club’s production jump. Expectations for regression are very realistic by virtue of a whopping .362 BABIP. The 30-year-old’s power numbers are legit but so is the probability of losing a couple wins of value by getting on base less. A little help from the change in venue plus Rooker’s confidence and work ethic arrive at a 3 WAR outlook for the DH/corner outfielder. Expect the split against right-handed pitching to lead his decline via the corresponding .378 BABIP.
Looking For Help? You Got It.
Outfielders Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday emerged as 20-homer outfielders worthy of everyday billing on Kotsay’s lineup card. The freshly-extended Butler found a better position in the corner after some experimentation in center as a rookie. Unfortunately, Bleday failed to grade out well there defensively much like Ruiz in 2023. But they wield plus 10-20% bats that mesh well with Brent Rooker at the top of the lineup, sacrificing fielding for offense. But these two weren’t alone in kicking down the door. Catcher Shea Langeliers also took the proverbial next step, albeit as another player who yields defensive value for his bat.
The youngest of the A’s talent pool had mixed 2024 seasons but project solidly after that important on-the-job experience. Second baseman Zack Gelof lost a lot at the plate after an unsustainable .331 BABIP-fueled debut. He looks to be the cliched glove-first middle infielder with a little more offense in the tank despite a 30%+ strikeout rate. This winter Gelof’s partner up the middle is the one garnering a lot of attention. Lauded prospect Jacob Wilson turns 23 in the season’s early days and wants nothing more than to capitalize on his promotion to primary shortstop. Scouts peg him as a contact hitter who fields the position well, yielding solid projections for the full season. I’ve penciled in a small fielding uptick at shortstop and a firm offensive improvement via impressive contact skills and plate discipline worth 1 to 2.5 wins.
Management looked outside the organization to address another glaring weak spot: third base. Journeyman Gio Urshela comes in on a 1-year stopgap deal to shore up the hot corner. Not impressed? Well, a motley crew just combined for 81 wRC+ and -14 DRS/-7 FRV, grading out just above replacement level. Urshela shores things up defensively, adding another win of value with his glove and modest offensive lift. It’s an incremental improvement that still allows the team to explore the likes of Max Schuemann and Darell Hernaiz as role players if utility infielder Luis Urias isn’t up for the task.
Options and Reality Checks
23-year-old left hand-hitting first baseman Tyler Soderstrom comes into 2025 as a quiet cog in the offense. The former catcher latched on after rejoining the Big Leagues in May, lost a couple months to injury, then finished the season hitting the ball very well. A +5% bat at first base is less than ideal for many teams but his strong side platoon role should post a surplus over the couple hundred poor at bats that Ryan Noda and Tyler Nevin offered. If Soderstrom disappoints in an expanded role, chalk up a year-over-year wash. Worst case, he buys time for the organization’s top prospect Nick Kurtz to assume the position in 2026.
Maybe the Seth Brown re-emergence never happens. What if Esteury Ruiz becomes the latest version of Billy Hamilton and fades away? These are the downside realities that the Athletics should be prepared to face. But it’s the enigmatic right-handed corner outfielder Miguel Andujar who offers sneaky upside. Of course that upside comes with a massive asterisk. Injuries have marred any attempt at following up his monster 2018 rookie campaign with the Yankees. Case in point, a core muscle injury abruptly ended last season after a late start due to meniscus surgery. That’s why it is hard to project Adujar for more than a half-season workload. What a shame because he is an ideal counterpart to Seth Brown in left field.
Any way you cut it, poor outfield defense will keep the A’s fielding grades near the bottom of the barrel again this year. But a more stable left side of the infield supports a positive overall defensive adjustment for the team. As for the offense, Brent Rooker’s regression becomes more of a how much than an if. Yet there’s plenty of small incremental changes for a 3% overall lift with a muted effect against right-handed pitching.
— Rotation —
Now we shift gears from a bright spot to a sore subject the Athletics have faced for three years running: the rotation. But there are rays of hope. The broad measurements of starting pitching effectiveness (4.76 ERA, 4.54 FIP/4.74 xFIP) improved slightly from the 2023 season. Plus the collective tacked on an additional 100 innings of work. This increased workload put the bullpen in a better position overall to capitalize on its retooled configuration.
Mark Kotsay threw a lot of spaghetti at the wall out of necessity to see what stuck. Eight pitchers made fewer than 10 starts; some of whom will bounce between AAA and the MLB in 2025, others will find roles in the bullpen. This is commonplace for franchises in the Athletics’ position – as long as thinning the herd and talent development actually goes somewhere. Fortunately there is a glut of arms coming up through the organization to bolster Kotsay’s options.
Plug and Play
An uncommon bright spot from a mishmash starting pitching group makes the task of plugging in veteran acquisitions easier. JP Sears, Joey Estes, and Mitch Spence comprise the short list of pitchers to eclipse the 24 start/125 IP mark last year. In fact, Sears started 32 games for the second straight season. JP and Joey have fly ball rates of concern considering the A’s won’t be playing in The Coliseum any longer, though Spence stayed the course as a reliable ground-ball pitcher who should not be penalized at Sutter Health Park this season.
With that in mind, GM David Frost made a couple key additions to keep that trio in more suitable roles as lower half rotation guys. In an effort to avoid a constantly revolving door to the rotation and to meet their payroll minimum, Frost struck early by inking Luis Severino. Chronicles of the 31-year-old’s 2017 breakout cascading into injuries galore are well known. But it was Severino’s noteworthy bounceback with the Mets last year (182.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP/4.12 xFIP) that earned him a 3-year, $67M deal to head up the A’s rotation.
Luis Severino 1st Half vs. 2nd Half (2024)
| IP/Start | K% | BB% | BABIP | GB% | ERA | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 6.09 | 17.8% | 8.1% | .258 | 48.0% | 3.78 | 4.34/4.46 |
| 2nd Half | 5.56 | 26.2% | 7.5% | .324 | 42.6% | 4.11 | 4.01/3.60 |
| Season | 5.90 | 21.2% | 7.9% | .283 | 46.0% | 3.91 | 4.21/4.12 |
There’s a lot to unpack from Severino’s successful return and how it projects to the coming season with the Athletics. He didn’t grind as far into starts after the All-Star Break, which is understandable given that Severino hadn’t pitched a full MLB season since 2018. Yet his second half stamina was on par or better than the Sears/Spence/Estes trio. Plus implementation of an effective sinker translates well to the club’s temporary home in West Sacramento. Expectations for another 2-WAR season in the low-4.00s are modest and attainable.
Rolling the dice on Jeffrey Springs is on brand for a club eventually headed to Las Vegas. Springs joining forces with Severino creates a risky but improved 1-2 duo to anchor the rotation. Will Springs regain the pre-Tommy John form on his slider/changeup? Is his 2.66 ERA and 3.14 FIP/3.33 xFIP with a 4.75 K/BB ratio as a starter in 2022 attainable again? A betting man – with help from his trusted projection sources – says “not quite”. Compared to Joe Boyle, who the A’s shipped back to Tampa Bay, Springs should give them 100-150 innings and much better command of the strike zone. Even at a modest sub-4.00 expectation with injury risk the 32-year-old lefty is a clear positive for the rotation.
A (More) Complete Package
Despite culling the weaker options and bringing in veteran reinforcements, the rotation is still not in a position to blow anyone’s doors off. Guys like JT Ginn, Mason Barnett, and Osvaldo Bido will continue to develop while Kotsay’s group of five join forces for 120+ starts. Throw in 25-40 starts from depth pieces and talent in reserve as wild cards to fill out a 162-game schedule. What you end up with is a modest 1-2 win improvement by virtue of a more well-rounded rotation and a full year under the belts of guys like Mitch Spence. All of this comes in the face of the new ballpark’s figurative headwinds and plenty of unknowns surrounding the younger arms.
— Bullpen —
Finally, the bullpen broke free from two years of replacement-level status to become a top-half unit. Closer Mason Miller has more than enough to do with this step forward; we’ll get to him in a minute. Behind Miller was a mix-and-match group of 16 pitchers that each worked 10+ innings in relief. Swingman-types, reclamation projects, and developing starters comprised the majority of this battalion. Expect this to persist in 2025 as the club continues to explore organizational depth. An exception to the why overpay for relievers as a sub-80 win team philosophy is the 1-year, $10M contract with former Rangers reliever Jose Leclerc. There’s never a dull moment with his high-strikeout, high-walk approach. But this unit will take an infusion of experience and bat avoidance despite Leclerc’s volatility.
The Athletics’ key reliever loss is not captured in the intro list: Lucas Erceg. He was dealt at the deadline to Kansas City for minor leaguers, taking his high-strikeout/high-ground ball skills with him. Otherwise, the year-over-year personnel losses were minimal. Miller’s presumptive high-leverage partners Tyler Ferguson and Michel Otanez return with left-handed veteran TJ McFarland in support. Middle- and long-relief will continue to be filled by younger arms looking to better define their roles.
Credit Where Credit Is Due
The knock on Mason Miller has always been his injury track record. It certainly wasn’t his stuff. After years of setbacks, the 26-year-old survived the injury bug and broke out with a 2.3 WAR campaign in which he converted 28 saves in 31 opportunities. Miller’s dominant fastball/slider combination kept hitters off balance, swinging through 19.6% of his pitches and connecting for a paltry 32.5% hard contact rate. As with most unproven hard-throwing relievers, regression from a 2.49 ERA and those eye-popping numbers carries a strong probability. Most of that is BABIP-based in addition to general skepticism from a single full season in this role.
Less fanfare surrounds the rookie campaigns of Michel Otanez and Tyler Ferguson, whose mid-3.00s production are generally replicable if not surrounded by plenty of variance. Otanez comes with high-K promise buffered by more than his share of walks. Ferguson’s outlook is skeptical of another 30.0% strikeout, .243 BABIP performance. But their aggregate value combined with Miller is firmly 2+ WAR. Lose Mason to significant injury, however, and this group loses a ton of horsepower from under the hood. That’s why our bullpen markdown varies from 2-3 wins. The upside of young talent is tempered by the unknowns underlying the key arms’ year twos.
Los Angeles Angels 2025 Win Total: Open 73.5, Now 72
2024 Result: Under 71.5 (63-99 / Pythag: 64)
These were my own words from last year’s AL West preview: “Look, I’ll be the first to admit getting suckered by the lure of a competitive Angels club in the past.” So much for winning a measly 71 or 72 games, eh? The Angels find themselves in the unenviable position of having the MLB’s longest postseason drought after their worst season in franchise history by win percentage. Adding insult to injury is one of the worst farm systems out there. Does this club have a turnaround in them or are they dead in the water once again?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- K Jansen (RP – RHP)
- J Moncada (3B)
- Y Kikuchi (SP – LHP)
- K Newman (INF)
- T d’Arnaud (C)
- K Hendricks (SP – RHP)
- J Soler (OF)
Subtractions:
- P Sandoval (SP – LHP)
- M Thaiss (C)
- G Canning (SP – RHP)
- R Contreras (RP – RHP)
- K Pillar (OF)
- H Strickland (RP – RHP)
- A Cimber (RP – RHP)
- M Moore (RP – LHP)
- B Drury (INF)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 72 – 80
— Position Players —
As if we needed proof of how much Shohei Ohtani meant to this offense. By the numbers, the Angels lineup lost 11% in park-adjusted production and scored 104 fewer runs than in 2023. Ohtani doesn’t account for all of that lost offense, though the club struggled mightily without the 2024 National League MVP. The only key category that saw an uptick is stolen bases – to which the Halos nearly doubled their total from 72 to 133. The bad part: those 133 stolen bases came at a penalizing 72.7% conversion rate that helped sink the team to the league’s second-lowest base running grade.
Costly Injuries
It’s not breaking news that injuries to centerfielder Mike Trout and third baseman Anthony Rendon have headlined much of the public’s perception of the Angels’ roster. Aside from the ascendancy of Shohei Ohtani, that viewpoint is spot on. Those setbacks have been significant in terms of both on-field production and payroll capacity. In Rendon’s case, the issue is much more financial than anything at this point. He has one more season left after this one on his $35M AAV deal. And now it looks like Rendon may not play at all this season after undergoing hip surgery in February. The 2019 World Series Champion posted a monster 2.5 WAR in the shortened 2020 season – the first year of his Angels contract – then proceeded to accumulate 1.2 WAR over the next four.
The Mike Trout situation is tough for most fans of the game to observe. Wear-and-tear has taken its toll on one of the game’s best over the last four years. Trout was a regular 8+ WAR player in his first five full seasons as a dynamic fielder, runner, and hitter. At the age of 33, projections put him around the 3-4 WAR mark as a plus-40% hitter that sees the field for 80-120 games. Considering who is on the roster, the Halos will take anything they can get out of their 4x American League MVP. Both sides came to terms this offseason that he’s better suited in center field-adjacent (right field) to prolong his availability.
One injury of note not involving Trout or Rendon concerns shortstop Zach Neto. A late-season shoulder injury reared its ugly head a month later, prompting surgery and a delayed start to the 2025 season. The 24-year-old doubled his playing time in year two, maintaining good defense at a premium position while ratcheting up all facets of his offense. Plus he is becoming a weapon on the base paths. Projections for 2025 are fairly stable unless the shoulder issue persists longer than anticipated. Until Neto is ready, a veteran like Kevin Newman or Tim Anderson will take the reins then slide back to a reserve role. The quicker, the better for Zach Neto’s recovery – he was the team’s most productive player at 3.5 WAR.
Shake It Up
The Angels kickstarted the MLB offseason with a one-for-one trade of starting pitcher Griffin Canning for well-traveled slugger Jorge Soler. He is effectively limited to DH duty after years of futility in the outfield, yet is still a clear upgrade of 2-3 wins over the motley crew that occupied that lineup spot last season. It’s a considerable improvement against lefties and a notable tick up against righties. If there’s any downside to this move, it nixes any rumblings about Mike Trout becoming primarily a designated hitter.
A couple weeks later, general manager Perry Minasian bolstered their mid-pack catching group with longtime NL East backstop Travis d’Arnaud. The 36-year-old slots in well as the lesser half of a tandem with the emerging Logan O’Hoppe. I imagine the former Phillies prospect stands to gain experience from d’Arnaud and his 11 seasons in the Majors. Whether or not that manifests, O’Hoppe established a solid 2 WAR baseline in a two-thirds timeshare. Pushing former backup Matt Thaiss out of the mix gains the club a bit more offense with d’Arnaud, though the jury is out on any fielding improvements. Tack on a win for this refreshed catcher group, which may be the only source of defensive improvement this season.
In Rendon’s place is the often-injured Yoan Moncada – for the time being, anyways. On a positive note, the third base position group was bottom five due to the Halos’ lack of depth there. The key exception being Luis Rengifo, who filled in admirably when not on the IL. Moncada’s league-average bat and uncertain fielding won’t hurt them but a prolonged injury could sting with guys like Tim Anderson and JD Davis on the bench. The Angels desperately need top prospect Christian Moore to show up big in Spring Training and shake up the infield for the better. Moore put his best foot forward in limited minor league duty after graduating last summer.
Unlocking the Offense
Jorge Soler is a big lift to this lineup, projecting to add about 35% to the DH spot. Mike Trout’s plus-40% bat can add 2+ wins by staying healthy – a massive if – for a modest 60-70% of the schedule. What makes the Angels’ upside particularly interesting is their younger players. A good place to start: first baseman Nolan Schanuel. The 23-year-old displayed considerable plate discipline in his first full MLB campaign without much power, living up to his prospect profile. The proverbial next step incrementally adds to Nolan’s on-base and power numbers to generate 5-10% more production. Will the young hitter backslide instead? Always a possibility. But we do respect multiple projection systems calling for a tick up.
Outfielder Taylor Ward is another plus-10% bedrock of the lineup who may have a little more in tank yet. The flip side is that Ward’s success may ratchet up his trade value and send him to a contender in July. His partner on the grass, Jo Adell is a former top prospect who has yet to gain a foothold. Is this the year (again)? The speedy 25-year-old slashed a ho-hum .207/.280/.402 and struggled on the bases, swiping 15 bags at a brutal 60% clip. You get the feeling that it’s do-or-die time for Adell and his 30% strikeout rate. A small consolation is his 44.5% hard hit rate and potential positive regression from a .244 BABIP. Getting to league-average status can gain the club another win, even if that means platooning him out more often with Mickey Moniak – assuming he keeps up his end of the bargain.
Limited depth in the minors could once again be the team’s Achilles’ heel when widespread injuries strike. That’s the Angels’ biggest downside when counting on significant offensive gains. A reasonable dose of injury luck could lead to as much as a collective 10% boost at the plate. More of the same problems combined with the lack of progress from young talent would stifle this upside to 4-5% though. At this point, we’re moving the Halos’ baseline up 8% with a little extra against left-handed pitching.
— Rotation —
Not a whole lot went well for the rotation either. L.A.’s starting pitchers mustered an ugly 34-76 record, albeit without much help from the offense. Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning led this group to bottom-three rankings graded at 5.6 WAR. That’s the Angels rotation’s lowest value since 2018! Veteran left-hander Anderson found his way back to 2022’s low-BABIP success, except that he couldn’t shake off 2023’s problematic walk rate. It’s not that 9.5% is extremely high as much as there’s no payoff with a 1.95 K/BB rate. Look for Tyler to float back towards last year’s 4.66 FIP/4.85 xFIP as a 1+ WAR, 170-inning mid-rotation filler.
Griffin Canning extended into career highs for starts (31) and innings (171.2), seeing his ERA rise in the second half along with his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the righty’s K/BB ratio slipped from 3.86 in 2023 to 1.97 in 2024, resulting in a 5.19 ERA and 5.26 FIP/7.75 xFIP. That replacement-level performance led him into a salary dump scenario for the Braves and a one-year deal with the Mets. And after 11 seasons in the Windy City, career Cub Kyle Hendricks fills Canning’s spot in the Angels rotation. They lose the potential of Canning’s “rebound” back to a mid-4.00s baseline in favor of a limited Hendricks who is generally projected to fall short in innings and effectiveness in 2025.
International Flavor Meets Homegrown Arms
Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi joins the crew after a reasonably successful 3.5 WAR season between Toronto and Houston. Career bests in innings (175.2), strikeout rate (28.0%), and walk rate (6.0%) forecast similar numbers as the new Angels’ ace. Anything in the 2-3 WAR range tops any L.A. starter’s production in 2024. Kikuchi replaces southpaw Patrick Sandoval who was lost to internal brace surgery then picked up by the Red Sox in a play for 2026.
26-year-old Jose Soriano gives the rotation hope for an extra half-win after a successful transition into starting pitching. A rocky start to the 2024 campaign stabilized into 113.0 innings at a quality 3.42 ERA, 3.80 FIP/3.82 xFIP. 11 of Soriano’s 20 starts went 6+ innings until finishing the season on the IL. The sinker baller turned 59.7% of balls in play into grounders, yielding projections around the 4.00 mark with 140+ innings. That modest amount of improvement can support a 6 WAR estimate for the Angels’ four locked-in starters. That’s already a shade greater than last year’s collective effort.
The #5 slot is open to competition in Spring Training. Top prospects Caden Dana and Italian-born Sam Aldegheri will make their cases for promotion at some point, as will Chase Silseth and Jack Kochanowicz – the “Man Who Couldn’t Miss a Bat“. Both have limited MLB experience and likely get tapped sooner than later as depth pieces. The leading candidate for the job, however, is left-hander Reid Detmers who just got thumped by a 6.70 ERA. His .357 BABIP and 1.85 home runs/9 innings punished him severely. Getting the mojo back with his secondaries could go a long way toward supporting the rotation’s improvement before manager Ron Washington dips into the minors. On paper, the 2025 rotation adds 3-4 wins to last year’s value. Whether that translates to the field is TBD.
— Bullpen —
It’s been tough sledding for this bullpen going on several seasons now. Efforts were made last offseason to address this weakness – which we bought into – but to no avail. 17 pitchers made 12 or more appearances, producing a decent 3.99 ERA but lackluster underlying metrics. An anemic 21.8% strikeout rate joined up with the league’s second-highest 10.8% walk rate to yield 1.2 WAR. The bullpen benefitted from the second-lowest .261 BABIP led by key arms Carlos Estevez and Hunter Strickland.
Estevez held down the closer job until he was traded to the Phillies at the deadline for a pair of starting pitcher prospects including the aforementioned Sam Aldegheri. He notched 20 of the team’s 35 saves at a strong 87.0% rate, good for 0.9 of the bullpen’s 1.2 WAR. Strickland’s return from a 2023 MLB absence was successful but he found himself released at the end of the year. The 36-year-old put the ball in play quite a bit and benefitted from a .229 BABIP that held his ERA down at 3.31. That likely comes back to haunt him this season like it did between 2021 and 2022, though the Angels will miss the 73.1 innings he soaked up. In fact, Strickland logged nearly 25 innings more than any other reliever on the team.
A Splash of Veterans
He may be past his prime but 37-year-old Kenley Jansen adds a healthy dose of high-leverage experience. Mid-3.00s at this point in his career is optimistic, yet still realistic. Robert Stephenson should be available this summer after Tommy John surgery, also projecting as a mid-3.00+ reliever with plenty of swing-and-miss stuff. The Halo relief unit can use all the help it can get after losing plenty of arms. Estevez, Strickland, Roansy Contreras, and Carson Fulmer performed fine. Others like Adam Cimber and Matt Moore, not so much.
Jansen will be supported by left-hander Brock Burke and emerging talent Ben Joyce. The 24-year-old Joyce was a leading candidate for the closer job before Kenley came to town, though he can still do a lot of damage as a setup man having posted a quality 2.08 ERA and 3.20 FIP/3.69 xFIP after his June recall. Plenty of ground balls and swing-and-miss combine for mid-3.00 expectations in a full-time role. Burke was claimed off waivers from Texas in August then proceeded to bounce back into good form to finish the season. Consider him on similar footing as Joyce but with less upside.
The difference between a good and a middling bullpen often comes down to having multiple reliable bulk relievers. The experienced arms of Jose Quijada and Jose Suarez fall into the “maybe” bucket when it comes to reliability. Less-experienced pitchers like Ryan Zeferjahn, Garrett McDaniels, and Hans Crouse fill in the holes along with a host of pitchers looking to make their way back to the Major Leagues. These are the guys who may make the difference between ugly and respectable. It’s not pretty, yet likely not any worse than the 2024 relief pitcher mashup.
2025 AL West Projected Standings
- Texas Rangers (90-72)
- Houston Astros (88-74)
- Seattle Mariners (86-76)
- Los Angeles Angels (75-87)
- The Athletics (74-88)
Closing the Offseason Books
That wraps up our 6th Annual MLB Division Preview series with a couple weeks to spare before Opening Day. An early taste of the regular season gets underway next week with the Tokyo Series. To catch our breakdown of this two-game set or to review the full preview series, visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. Want to stay in touch? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email notifications.
