What a change of fortunes within the AL East last year. The Yankees and Rays all but swapped their positions in the AL East pecking order. The Orioles kept their eyes on the postseason prize while the floor dropped out from beneath the Jays. And the Red Sox, well, they’re parlaying last year’s good points into a run for the 2025 AL East title. But the Yankees stand as the reigning champions and AL Pennant winners, making the Bronx the center of attention for their competition.

Another season in the books marks The BetCrushers’ 6th Annual Divisional Previews for the 2025 MLB season. We go as deep as we can to find value in the futures markets – with a special focus on regular season win totals. It’s a labor of love for a good purpose. We appreciate you all! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)

2024 AL Pennant & Division Winner: New York Yankees

2024 AL East Final Standings

1. New York Yankees (94-68)
2. Baltimore Orioles (91-71)
3. Boston Red Sox (81-81)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)

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New York Yankees 2025 Win Total: Open 90.5, Now 92

2024 Result: Over 93.5 (94-68 / Pythag: 96)

Losing the World Series on the heels of a dominant 7-2 postseason record is both disappointing and a remarkable achievement. The Yankees’ powerful lineup met its match against a Dodgers club that exposed their shortcomings in the five-game Series. At least their regular season success put the concerns from the 2023 campaign well in the rear view mirror. But the boys from the Bronx will do it this year without elite hitter Juan Soto. Fortunately, the front office did plenty to address the club’s weaknesses and set them up for another run at an AL East title.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• P Goldschmidt (1B)
• F Cruz (RP – RHP)
• C Bellinger (1B/OF)
• D Williams (CL)
• M Fried (SP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• J Trevino (C)
• N Cortes (SP – LHP)
• C Poteet (RHP)
• C Narvaez (C)
• J Soto (OF)
• G Torres (2B)
• C Holmes (RP – RHP)
• A Verdugo (OF)
• T Kahnle (RP – RHP)
• A Rizzo (1B)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 88 – 95

— Position Players —

High expectations stemming from last winter’s Juan Soto acquisition are one thing. Riding him and the big horse Aaron Judge to a top three offense is another. Exceeding expectations without any other individual standout performances amongst the position player corps – perhaps other than Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s second half – speaks to how top-heavy this group was. Here’s the Yankees’ powerhouse duo by the numbers:

Judge & Soto Offensive Production (2024)

	PA	R	RBI	HR	Slash Line	BABIP	wRC+	WAR
A Judge	704	122	144	58	.322/.458/.701	.367	218	11.2
J Soto	713	128	109	41	.288/.419/.569	.298	180	8.1
NYY Total	6245	815	782	237	.248/.333/.429	.283	117	33.7

As the old adage goes, “the bigger they are, the harder they are to replace”. Or something like that. The void left by Juan Soto signing with the Mets after an epic career season goes without saying. General manager Brian Cashman approached the problem by signing Cody Bellinger as New York’s everyday centerfielder, pushing Aaron Judge to right field in Soto’s absence. Bellinger has been difficult to pin down since his rough farewell in Los Angeles but should be a slightly better defender in center compared to Judge. Plus he can save the big fella some wear and tear in the field.

Letting Alex Verdugo walk in free agency opened the door for long-awaited top prospect Jasson Dominguez. The 22-year-old switch-hitter is beyond ready to tackle his first full MLB season after his trajectory was derailed by Tommy John surgery in late 2023. Plus-10% bat, neutral fielding, and impressive speed are a good combination for a squad seeking multi-dimensional strength. Even if he lags Verdugo’s fielding this season the outfield as a whole should not lose any ground defensively with its new configuration.

The new blood in the outfield can significantly upgrade the Yankees’ base running. Those who weren’t dialed in during the regular season may have heard about this deficiency during playoff game broadcasts. Aside from infielders Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Anthony Volpe, the 2024 roster was devoid of advantageous baserunners. Plus the type of game that manager Aaron Boone wanted to play with Judge and Soto in the lineup downplayed the importance of advancing bases in lieu of avoiding additional outs. Bellinger and Dominguez shift the balance in favor of the run game compared to the likes of Soto, Verdugo, and infielder Gleyber Torres.

Nailing Down the Infield

Shortstop Anthony Volpe and catcher Austin Wells stand as constants from the 2024 infield. Gleyber Torres left in free agency, opening up second base for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and allowing Oswaldo Cabrera to shine at third where he may have found a home. Assuming his bat continues to come around. Addition by subtraction improves the Yankees’ fielding on the dirt as Torres graded poorly the last couple seasons. And DJ LeMahieu has not yet become a defensive liability if called into duty at third base. As with Cabrera, DJ is as playable as his bat – and body – allows him to be.

Paul Goldschmidt breathes some fresh air into first base as Anthony Rizzo’s tenure came to a disappointing close. Rizzo’s precipitous decline in New York dangles the low hanging fruit of improvement for the 2022 NL MVP. Goldy’s career-low numbers in 2024 (.245/.302/.414, 100 wRC+) still managed to outperform New York’s first base group by 16%. Projections put him on a 5-15% rebound for a guy who should be in the lineup nine days out of ten. Gains from this lineup spot against lefties are much needed after losing Juan Soto’s .278/.416/.550, 174 wRC+ from that side.

An understated loss to the defense is backup catcher Jose Trevino, whose one-third timeshare is tentatively absorbed by Alex Jackson. Primary backstop Austin Wells is a strong fielder though and he’s no worse than an average bat. Trevino takes 1 win away from the 2025 group, but that speaks against the position’s depth not what Wells brings to the table. Neutral in the outfield, a boost on the dirt, and a downtick at catcher keeps the Yankees as one of the better defenses in the Majors.

Built For the Long Haul?

We see what others see: marginal position player depth on the 40-man roster. Granted, Trent Grisham is a valuable outfield bench player who can suitably man center field. That enables somewhat of an outfield rotation to cover the DH lineup spot when slugger Giancarlo Stanton is hurt. He’s a plus-15% power bat but spends about one-third of the season on the IL. Case in point, Stanton’s elbow soreness will delay his debut until May or later. DJ LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza don’t move the needle much as infield depth and the catcher spot is not fully baked at this point.

Fortunately, Paul Goldschmidt coming in to stabilize first base takes some of the sting out of losing so much offense from the outfield group. Some, but not a lot. Juan Soto’s 180 wRC+ over 713 plate appearances will clearly be missed and won’t be fully accounted for. New York’s overall production at the plate likely declines as much as 7-10%, though a more effective base running effort by their new legs can soften the impact.

— Rotation —

When your offense is as potent as the Yankees, starting pitching doesn’t need to be elite. The rotation was fine in many respects as left-handers Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon carried the torch while Gerrit Cole worked through an elbow injury that sidelined him for most of the first half. Clarke Schmidt stepped up admirably until his own prolonged injury, throwing down a 2.52 ERA in Cole’s absence. The interesting story with New York’s starters – aside from injuries to Cole and Schmidt – is the strong continuity that Aaron Boone’s bunch maintained. Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Cortes, and Rodon all made 29 or more starts, leaving just 9 outings for Cody Poteet and prospect Will Warren to absorb.

The biggest change to this year’s rotation is the southpaw swap of Max Fried for Nestor Cortes. Cortes heads to Milwaukee in the trade for Devin Williams, creating a plug-and-play situation for the 31-year-old ground ball specialist. The reliable low-3.00s southpaw pairs well with New York’s shored up infield defense. Fried is one of those highly-effective pitchers who commands respect without being an overwhelming strikeout guy. His broad menu of pitches keeps him from getting lit up year in and year out. If there’s any downside to Fried’s game, he tops out around 180 innings per season. Something makes me think the Yankees can live with that.

A Loaded Group

Ace Gerrit Cole’s delayed start to the 2024 campaign interrupted two straight seasons with 200+ innings. Now 34 years of age, the big right-hander faces declining strikeout and swinging strike rates that put him more in line with his recent upper-3.00s xFIPs. There’s enough confidence in the veteran to effectively adapt to this reality and return as a 3+ WAR foundational piece who soaks up 180+ innings. Seasoned veteran Carlos Rodon may be settling into a new normal as well after being bogged down by injuries in 2023. The lefty can hang around the 4.00 mark facing a more modest 3+ K/BB ratio as compared to his 2021-2022 seasons. 175 innings is about as good as it gets in terms of workload though.

You could do much worse than American League Rookie of the Year Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt as your 4/5 starters. Command issues aside, Gil mustered a 3.50 ERA over 29 starts fueled in part by a .237 BABIP to be reckoned with in year two. He and Schmidt should shake out around the 4.00 mark with volume targets at 150 innings. Not a bad 3-4 WAR combination bringing up the rear. The big question at the moment is how long Luis Gil’s lat strain will keep him sidelined. We have New York’s starting pitchers producing up to 2 additional wins over last season. Dipping into an emergency reserve like Carlos Carrasco early in the season compromises their chances for improvement.

Marcus Stroman was the odd man out prior to Luis Gil’s setback and he was more than happy to let everyone know of his displeasure. Stro’s depth of start has really tailed off since leaving the Mets in 2021. Last year, his effectiveness hit the skids to the tune of a 4.31 ERA and 4.62 FIP/4.50 xFIP. The ground ball pitcher’s walk and swinging strike rates faltered, leaving more feathers than chicken in his starts. However, Stro is no longer expendable with Gil’s injury confronting Aaron Boone.

Heralded prospect Will Warren is next in line for the sixth starter designation with JT Brubaker breaking three ribs in camp. Yankees’ #1 prospect Warren offers the most upside. But with only 22.2 MLB innings under his belt, you can see why Boone wants him to get more consistent reps at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre before being thrown into MLB action again. Adversity before Opening Day is already testing New York’s approach to the rotation.

— Bullpen —

Aaron Boone essentially threw everything but the kitchen sink out of the bullpen last year. Only two pitchers, Luke Weaver and closer Clay Holmes, topped the 60-inning plateau as twelve others logged 10+ innings for the collective. Their 3.62 ERA was quite good but still a rung below the elite relief units of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. As Holmes’ tenure as closer sputtered to an end, Weaver cemented himself as one of Aaron Boone’s high-leverage arms for the 2025 campaign. Most projections aren’t completely sold on his 2024 resurgence though.

Elite closer Devin Williams takes the reins after three straight sub-2.00 ERA seasons. Injury shortened his 2024 season but the back looks good to go this spring. Dominant swing-and-miss stuff, ground balls, and weak contact are his calling card. Although multiple projections put him on both sides of 3.00, we don’t sit alone as skeptics of a “high” ERA out of this lockdown reliever. At minimum, he picks up where Clay Holmes left off. But his upside is tremendous.

Ground-baller Tim Hill returns as the rare lefty of the bullpen. Former Reds strikeout machine Fernando Cruz gets a big opportunity to shine in the Bronx if he can corral the walks and hard contact that kept him from his low-3.00s potential. Cruz, Weaver, and Ian Hamilton offer tremendous support for Williams. Plus Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, and Jonathan Loaisiga will return from the IL throughout the first half to bolster this relief unit. Cashman and the front office did well to mitigate losses from the bullpen with potential to add another win or more to the cause.

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Baltimore Orioles 2025 Win Total: Open 90, Now 88

2024 Result: Over 90 (91-71 / Pythag: 90)

Is the Orioles’ window starting to close after shoving it wide open in 2023? Failing to muster a single win in back-to-back postseasons then saying goodbye to Corbin Burnes tests even the most devoted fan’s patience. But their young talent has another year under their belts and a shakeup of the rotation will make things interesting in 2025. Baltimore’s main issue is keeping pace with the Yankees and fending off dark horses Boston and Toronto. Expectations for this talented club are justifiably high at Camden Yards.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• R Laureano (OF)
• C Morton (SP – RHP)
• Tomoyuki Sugano (SP – RHP)
• A Kittredge (RP – RHP)
• T O’Neill (OF)
• G Sanchez (C)

Subtractions:

• C Burnes (SP – RHP)
• A Santander (OF)
• J Webb (RP – RHP)
• D Coulombe (RP – LHP)
• J Means (SP – LHP)
• B Smith (RP – RHP)
• J McCann (C)
• C Kimbrel (RP – RHP)
• A Slater (OF)
• E Jimenez (DH)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 83 – 94

— Position Players —

As good as the 2023 team was, last year’s lineup was more powerful. The extra slugging and home runs came at the expense of base running while adjusting from 2023’s top ten BABIP. Catcher Adley Rutschman, first baseman/DH Ryan O’Hearn, and outfielder Anthony Santander all experienced BABIP reality checks from one season to the next. Although Rutschman appears to have fought through a second half injury as all of his numbers declined along with that 31-point BABIP slide. Plus his framing grades bottomed out after two strong seasons. Another benefit to the catcher group this season: swapping James McCann for Gary Sanchez. His defense is better than McCann’s in a one-third timeshare role and should add 10% offensively. The O’s stand to gain 3 wins with their catchers alone.

Left-handed hitter Ryan O’Hearn experienced an odd transformation between the last two seasons in addition to coming down from a .340 BABIP in 2023. He experienced a rougher second half similar to Rutschman en route to career highs in games played (142) and plate appearances (494). Adjustments to his approach is one theory for the big change in 2024. Will he stay the course or pivot to recapture his lost power? O’Hearn lost over 10% from hard contact and 53 points from slugging between seasons. He swung less overall, shrinking his 5.44 K/BB rate down to a disciplined 1.51. Whatever route Ryan takes in 2025 projects as another plus-20% outcome with strength against right-handed pitching.

A Long Goodbye and Fresh Faces

The time finally came to bid farewell to outfielder Anthony Santander. After eight seasons in an Orioles uniform, the 30-year-old went north of the border to don the colors of a different bird. Santander left on a high note, having posted 3.3 WAR behind 44 home runs and a .235/.308/.506 slash line. The right fielder’s hard hit rate settled down from a whopping 46.0% in 2023 and BABIP deflated from .299 to .225. That makes his production even more impressive. Going from hitting the third-most doubles in the league to the third-most home runs is hardly a bad thing.

Baltimore did not need to re-sign Santander for $14M/year with young lefty hitter Colton Cowser making the most of his full-time duty. Strikeouts continued to linger from his minor league days but he hits the ball hard and takes walks. Expectations to replicate 2024’s .242/.321/.447 slash line and good defense should replace most of Santander’s overall value. Anthony is a switch-hitter who did not have a big splits weakness though. Veteran Ramon Laureano – also a good defender – was signed to fulfill short-side platoon duties on the heels of two seasons hitting plus-25% against southpaws.

Left field gets a new face with power hitter Tyler O’Neill, another one who will timeshare but not in a strict platoon sense. O’Neill’s time off comes when he’s on the IL – all but a certainty given his injury record over the last few seasons. Signing a true-three-outcomes player hitting from the right side ain’t a bad idea with the left field wall reportedly coming in between 11′ to 26′. Left-handed depth via Heston Kjerstad is far from terrible given his power and on-base ability.

Stuffing the Lineup

It could certainly be worse with the remaining old guard represented by first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and centerfielder Cedric Mullins. Reformed switch-hitter Mullins is rock solid as a plus hitter and defender with a 2 WAR floor when heathy. Right-handed hitter Mountcastle needs occasional platoon support but is not dependent on it. These two do not need to be outstanding given the immense talent elsewhere. Being healthy and reliable is more important given their skillsets.

2023 AL Rookie of the Year shortstop Gunnar Henderson is that 6+ WAR, five tool star. Plate discipline, power, speed, and strong defense at this premium position moves the needle. Oh yeah, the kid will turn 24 this summer. Consistent 50%+ hard hit rates over more than two seasons substantiate his plus-50% offensive projections that could replicate 2024’s elite 8.0 WAR. Jordan Westburg settled in nicely at third base after splitting time at second last year, notwithstanding a six-week absence due to taking a pitch off of his hand. Ramon Urias filled in admirably though more Westburg at third base improves the position’s defensive grades. A small gain there and behind the plate combines with better outfield defense for a fielding upgrade in 2025.

Jackson Holliday’s second half reboot looks promising for the year ahead. Despite struggling through a tough April as a pure rookie, the second generation Major Leaguer is slated to be the O’s regular second baseman. Holliday’s demotion back to AAA Norfolk was extremely successful (.271/.431/.477) and may have restored some confidence in the 21-year-old. 2+ WAR projections improve second base offensively and defensively with Ramon Urias providing short-side support. With opportunistic base running and a stacked group of hitters the Baltimore offense should remain at a plus-10% or better level. Corner infield prospect Coby Mayo may make his way back to the Majors this season too.

— Rotation —

Regardless of the O’s not getting over the postseason hump, the Corbin Burnes trade was a win through the lens of the 2024 season. Although it did come at the price of losing DL Hall and Joey Ortiz to the Brewers. Without Burnes, the Orioles rotation may have trouble staying afloat during the regular season sans trade deadline activity. Corbin’s 32 starts, 194.1 innings, and 3.7 WAR led the team by far. In fact, no other Baltimore starting pitcher logged more than 130 innings last year. His 2.92 ERA and 3.55 FIP/3.55 xFIP led all O’s starters with 10+ starts. Those are big shoes to fill if this club wants to carry on with a top ten rotation.

Trade deadline acquisition Zach Eflin produced like a champ in Baltimore, posting a 2.60 ERA and 3.94 FIP/3.79 xFIP across 9 starts. The ground ball command specialist has a strong infield defense behind him to accommodate his style of hitting spots and living in the strike zone. Upper-3.00s expectations mirror Eflin’s production over the last 5+ years. A full season of 170+ innings should produce close to 3 WAR, about 20 innings and 1 win shy of Burnes in the staff ace role.

Working Around Injuries

Stacking a strong starting five is almost always a prerequisite for a contending team. Building depth is a must if that team wants to go anywhere in the playoffs. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells will both miss at least the first half of the season recovering from elbow surgeries. Bradish is the bigger loss considering the trajectory he was on. After the 2022 acclimation season, Kyle kicked down the door the following year with a 2.83 ERA and 3.27 FIP/3.53 xFIP across 30 starts worth 3.8 WAR. That was Corbin Burnes-level effectiveness. They his delayed 2024 season came to a screeching halt after just 8 starts, ending with a 2.75 ERA.

Grayson Rodriguez (lat strain) and Dean Kremer (triceps) each missed more than a month but enter camp in good shape. Rodriguez has a quality arsenal and plus command to justify mid-3.00 projections. Extending past the 25-start threshold while maintaining 5.5+ inning/start depth puts him in 2-3 WAR territory. Kremer’s 4.00+ stuff fits in the 1-2 WAR tier behind Elfin and Rodriguez, especially if he fails to muster 150+ innings.

Injury setbacks derailed former Marlins starter Trevor Rogers’ progression from a brilliant full rookie season in 2021. 25 starts at 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP/3.54 xFIP worked out to a monster 4.3 WAR that has eluded him ever since. The Orioles brought him in at last year’s trade deadline only for Trevor to struggle to a 7.11 ERA in 4 starts. Rogers may be MLB-ready but could easily get passed over by top prospect Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich, or Brandon Young. If promoted, these young arms project with low-4.00s effectiveness that likely outclasses Trevor Rogers.

Help From the Outside

Instead of working around injuries and throwing developing prospects to the wolves right away, Baltimore chose to supplement its rotation with two experienced righties, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. Morton is an MLB fixture at the ripe age of 41, moving on from four years in Atlanta. After a few lights-out seasons prior to 2020, Charlie pivoted into a reliable 30+ start guy that warrants low-4.00s numbers as a ground ball contact pitcher. Morton has a 1-WAR floor and can go every five days barring a rare in-season setback.

NPB veteran Sugano is profiled as a control pitcher who generates tons of ground balls. His arsenal is broad and relies on pinpoint accuracy to keep hitters off balance and put the ball in play without too much damage. The only problem is that formula has not been overly successful translating to the MLB environment. Until Tomoyuki earns his keep in the Majors the projections will be less than phenomenal. His value is estimated between replacement level and 1 win above. Low expectations for Morton and Sugano plus prospect uncertainty keep the 2025 rotation 2-3 wins short of the Corbin Burnes-led group.

— Bullpen —

The bullpen was far from bad but certainly missed the mark of dominance. Parlaying veteran Craig Kimbrel’s mildly-successful 2023 in Philadelphia into the O’s closer role did not pan out. We’ve seen this play out several times in the twilight of Kimbrel’s career where he posts a big year with a stifled BABIP then gives it all back as regression strikes (2018-2019, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024). So what’s one way to shake up a middling relief unit? Get your hammer back from injury. Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery with stellar projections in the mid-2.00s. Prior to missing the 2024 season, Felix was a 60+ inning pitcher with insane strikeout and whiff rates that produced 2.19 and 1.48 ERAs without much disagreement from FIP and xFIP.

Out in free agency is right-hander Danny Coulombe, who takes his sub-3.00 ERA back to Minnesota. He missed a good chunk of 2024 from surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. Yet his numbers over the two seasons in Baltimore (2.56 ERA, 2.83 FIP/3.27 xFIP; 1.9 WAR) leave a considerable hole in the high-leverage department. Plus Jacob Webb was non-tendered after a solid campaign totaling 60 appearances worth 0.6 WAR. In comes Andrew Kittredge on the heels of a 70.2-inning season in Saint Louis. Injuries derailed his bid to continue 2021’s success, which the Orioles would love to see replicated in 2025. Kittredge is projected for a mid-3.00+ season with considerable volume.

No Shortage Of Quality

Midseason acquisitions Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto – both from Philadelphia – remain with the club and project as mid-3.00 middle relievers with high-leverage experience if push comes to shove. Yennier Cano and Cionel Perez also return as mid-3.00 workhorses. Not bad at all. Load up the bullpen with a bevy of proven half-win relievers behind an elite closer and pray that widespread injuries don’t derail the operation. Sounds like a plan to me. Swingman Albert Suarez is the weakest link in the bunch because he only strikes out around 20% of hitters and puts the ball in the air. The redundancy of plus relievers and having a legitimate 9th inning hammer earns the Orioles’ bullpen 1+ additional wins.

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Boston Red Sox 2025 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 86.5

2024 Result: Over 77.5 (81-81 / Pythag: 81)

After two straight 78-84 records with 5th place AL East finishes, the Boston Red Sox popped into 3rd place with an 81-81 record. The club hasn’t quite found its way back into 90-win territory since the surprising 2021 campaign though. Going from two wins short of the World Series right into three lackluster campaigns left Sox Nation pounding the table for more. Not to worry. The front office made a deal for starting pitcher Garrett Crochet then signed Alex Bregman on the verge of Spring Training. New blood in the pitching staff and prospects graduating into the position player corps could be the sparks needed to turn the corner.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• A Bregman (3B)
• W Buehler (SP – RHP)
• P Sandoval (SP – LHP)
• G Crochet (SP – LHP)
• C Narvaez (C)
• A Chapman (RP – LHP)
• J Wilson (RP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• C Boozer (RP – LHP)
• E Valdez (INF)
• K Teel (C)
• T O’Neill (OF)
• N Pivetta (SP – RHP)
• K Jansen (RP – RHP)
• C Martin (RP – RHP)
• D Jansen (C)
• L Garcia (RP – RHP)
• R McGuire (C)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 82 – 86

— Rotation —

After a couple tough seasons Boston’s starting pitching turned upward in 2024. ERA came down 87 points while volume went up 65.1 innings; a combination that led to a 12.0 WAR value. Notably better than the two previous seasons. And the core is still relatively intact with one exception. For the first time since 2019 the Sox will be without Nick Pivetta. The veteran was as solid as ever (4.14 ERA, 4.07 FIP/3.50 xFIP) in his return to full-time rotation duty aside from a month-long IL stint.

Out goes Pivetta, in comes 25-year-old lefty Garrett Crochet by trading four prospects to the White Sox including catcher Kyle Teel. Crochet has just one season of full-time rotation work but his stuff slots him in here as a viable #1 or #2. His transition from reliever in 2021 to last year’s triumphant return to action brought along a new cutter and fewer sliders. The result: whopping 35.1% strikeout and 16.2% whiff rates plus a questionable 5.5% walk rate. Garrett’s 6.33 K/BB ratio fueled a 4.7 WAR value that made him very valuable in the trade market. Plus he won’t become a free agent until 2027. Last year’s 3.58 ERA and 2.69 FIP/2.38 xFIP point to further performance upside; projections for a 5+ inning/start average is a nice step forward from 4.56 a year ago.

Lucas Giolito is like a new acquisition even though he was already on the roster recovering from internal brace surgery in 2024. He figures to get reps in the bullpen as well as a healthy number of starts. At this point, reasonable projections put Gio in the mid-4.00s with his ever-present home run susceptibility. He and former Dodger Walker Buehler share similar outlooks as sub-3.0 K/BB ratio types who can bolster the rotation mainstays. Buehler has a long way to get back to his 2019-2021 prime seasons.

Familiar Faces

The aforementioned mainstays are Boston’s homegrown top three rotation performers of 2024. Tanner Houck took the next big step, progressing from 21 starts at 5.05 innings/start to 30 starts at 5.96 – all while holding down a stellar 3.12 ERA and 3.32 FIP/3.58 xFIP. Transitioning from a swing-and-miss pitcher to a heavy ground-ball contact one has a lot to do with Houck stretching out his workload. However, consensus projections are skeptical of him staying in the mid-3.00s range.

Brayan Bello’s second straight 150+ inning season portends well for a third. Manager Alex Cora would obviously like the ground baller to cut down on walks to keep him in games longer. Projections look at Bello as more of a 4.00 guy but that comes down to sharpening the sinker/changeup portion of his repertoire. Like Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford also upped his workload by gradually taking on more starting pitching work over the last three seasons. He’s in the thick of the 4.00+ ranks with middling whiff stuff and big fly liability.

This retuning trio pencils out to a year-over-year value near last season’s with about a 1-win decline. Reinforcements in the form of Buehler and Giolito are fine in the context of adding a top-end arm like Crochet. Now we’re looking at a rotation boost of 2-3 wins with all of these pieces put together. Plus there’s rumblings about the Sox going to a 6-man rotation with this abundance of arms that includes prospect Richard Fitts knocking at the door.

— Bullpen —

The bullpen wasn’t bad, yet it did anything but stand out amongst the others. Bottom-third ERA (4.39) and K rate (21.9%) did not help the cause of closing out games. Only 40 of 67 opportunities were converted, resulting in a 59.7% success rate that fell well short of the league average. Free agent closer Kenley Jansen pitched relatively well to a 3.29 ERA, 3.00 FIP/4.04 xFIP and 87.1% save conversion percentage. Also out in free agency, tall ground-baller Chris Martin had tough luck with the ball in play (.353 BABIP) but otherwise dominated with a freakish 16.67 K/BB ratio.

Those high-leverage veterans have been replaced by a different pair with 10+ MLB seasons under their belts. Right-hander Liam Hendricks effectively missed all of 2024 due to setbacks from Tommy John rehab. Southpaw Aroldis Chapman delivered his highest innings count (61.2) since his 2015 season with the Reds. The strikeouts were still there (37.0%) as were the walks (14.7%), yielding a 5-5 record with 14 saves in 19 opportunities. Much like their predecessors, there’s a lot of mileage on those arms and a general tone of 3.00+ projections with 55+ inning workloads. Value projections between the incoming and outgoing pairs are comparable.

Mixed Bag

Boston’s high-leverage portion retains right-hander Justin Slaten, a former Rule 5 draft pick who cracked into the Majors in impressive fashion last year. Slaten was initially implemented as a multi-inning reliever before elbow inflammation knocked him out for six weeks. After returning, the rookie slid into more of a setup role where he should reside to start this season. A lot of positives are in the 27-year-old’s favor: solid pitch mix, 50.0% ground ball rate, and 14.2% whiff rate. But there are indicators pointing toward some inflation of last year’s 2.93 ERA and 2.61 FIP/2.90 xFIP. A low home run rate and 4.0% walk rate that resulted in a whopping 6.44 K/BB ratio challenges Slaten’s bid for another 1+ WAR season. There’s still a lot to like with this hidden gem.

Greg Weissert and left-hander Brennan Bernardino return as middle relief options with expectations right around the 4.00 mark. 37-year-old Justin Wilson assumes Cam Booser’s spot as another southpaw in the mix. Last year was rough in Cincinnati (5.59 ERA, 4.73 FIP/3.99 xFIP), yielding 10 home runs in 46.2 innings as Wilson was saddled with a 41.3% hard hit rate – the highest of his long MLB career. Swingman Josh Winckowski may not be called upon to start as often with a deeper starting pitcher pool, though he has shown impressive durability with expectations right around 4.00.

Alex Cora has gone on record to say that Garrett Whitlock will be used exclusively as a reliever this season. Prior to injury, Whitlock had solid swing-and-miss stuff with a walk rate around 5.0%. His mid-3.00s profile by virtue of a sinker-heavy four-pitch mix plays well for the high-leverage half of the bullpen. Michael Fulmer also returns from a season-long absence as a potential innings-eater. Plus hard-throwing prospect Luis Guerrero figures to get called up as a promising depth piece. If the rotation does its part by taking on more innings, Boston’s bullpen has the composition for a league-average floor with 1+ wins of upside potential over 2024.

— Position Players —

Not only did Boston’s rotation rebound after a down 2023, the offense experienced a similar uptick. Top ten in home runs, stolen bases, and all three slash line components (.252/.319/.423) led to a mid-pack 20.3 WAR bogged down by mixed fielding grades. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill exemplified this state of affairs, belting 31 home runs and slugging .511 as he worked around three short IL stints. O’Neill joins infielder Enmanuel Valdez and backup catchers Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire as departed free agents. Otherwise, there is considerable continuity from last year’s position player group.

The biggest shakeup with the lineup came when two-time World Series Champion Alex Bregman signed a 3-year/$120M deal just a week before Spring Training. Opt-outs after this and the 2026 seasons effectively make it a one-year contract with a couple player extensions. Known for his solid glove and prolific on-base numbers, the 30-year-old takes over at second base with Rafael Defers staying put at third. It’s safe to expect Bregman to be a plus fielder in the middle infield after holding down the hot corner for more than 8,500 innings in 9 seasons. David Hamilton and/or Vaughn Grissom were in line to take on this position until Bregman was signed. The former Astro has comparable or better fielding grades to Hamilton last second and tops both of them offensively by 15-25%.

In Good Hands

O’Neill leaves a 2.5 WAR gap to be filled by the club’s impressive outfielder depth. One name particularly comes to mind in this conversation: Jarren Duran. The 28-year-old successfully fulfilled an everyday role with most of his time spent in center field. 6.7 WAR is pretty damn good. The approach changes some with O’Neill gone, as the team plans to use Ceddanne Rafaela as their regular glove-first centerfielder and put Duran in left. As spectacular as Jarren was in center, Ceddanne is up for the challenge with his speed and fielding skills. The outfield should not lose effectiveness in the swap since Duran significantly exceeds O’Neill’s fielding value in the corner.

The opposite corner is covered by the potent Wilyer Abreu/Rob Refsnyder tandem. I understand the case for minor regression by Abreu, although that seems to be capped by a near-50% hard contact rate through 532 MLB plate appearances. Refsnyder’s 160 wRC+ against lefties is on the chopping block as his power surges come and go. Regardless, these two plus Jarren Duran are serious on-base machines dotting the lineup. Between losing Tyler O’Neill and Duran regressing from 2024’s monster numbers, Boston’s outfield could lose 5+ wins of value.

A Crowded House

Masataka Yoshida’s lack of fielding acumen could pigeonhole him into DH duties. Alex Cora is allegedly interested in his return to the field though. With a healed shoulder there is some value in Yoshida’s increased flexibility even though there are plenty of left-handed hitting outfielders already on the roster. This embarrassment of riches gets even more interesting with top prospect Roman Anthony on the verge of his MLB call-up. Anthony – also a left-handed hitter – hit .291/.396/.498 last season in the minors and can play a corner outfield position well. His unknowns at this level will be answered sooner or later, as will questions regarding Yoshida’s role moving forward.

Other notable prospects on the verge include shortstop Marcelo Mayer and second baseman Kristian Campbell. With Alex Bregman on board the infield is no less crowded than the outfield, making Spring Training an important barometer for the 2025 season. Incumbent shortstop Trevor Story has three injury-filled years in Boston under his belt after a successful career in Colorado. Story’s fielding held up decently over the last couple seasons although his bat is hard pressed to cross the league-average threshold. High strikeout rates and weakening contact are tough to buck. Trevor Story will be pressured for playing time by Mayer – and possibly Campbell now that Bregman is blocking him at second base. The latter has the best opportunity to impact the club after slashing .330/.439/.558 rising through the minor league ranks.

Stability On the Perimeter

While we’re on the incoming prospect conversation, Boston took its lumps with the catcher group. As noted earlier, top 100 prospect Kyle Teel was traded to the White Sox for starting pitcher Garrett Crochet. Gaining a potential ace is great. Losing the next big thing at a premium position is less so. Especially with the 2024 position group grading out in the bottom third. Connor Wong’s 32% offensive surge was accompanied by a sudden dropoff behind the plate. Part-timers Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen did not offer much with their bats but combined for near-neutral fielding. Now the inexperienced Carlos Narvaez comes over from the Yankees to join Blake Sabol to round out the group. Small offensive adjustment down and defensive adjustment up.

At least for 2025, Alex Bregman will not knock Rafael Devers off of third base. His subpar fielding is a known quantity and plus-30% bat is extremely consistent. Chalk him up for 4 WAR and move on. Triston Casas hopes to stay healthy this season and get his career progression back on track. The big fella gets on base a ton and has power – a prime combination for this bat-first position. You saw just how valuable he is while on the shelf for over three months due to torn cartilage in his rib cage. If it wasn’t for Dominic Smith surprisingly keeping first base afloat in his absence, the position group’s 0.6 WAR would have been a big negative with guys like retread Bobby Dalbec filling in. Casas’ bat can add 1.5 wins or more across a full season.

The Red Sox have some moving parts to negotiate coming out of Spring Training. Fortunately the vast majority of them have options remaining, giving Alex Cora flexibility to navigate the roster over 162 games. Bregman moves the defensive needle slightly given the quality of their existing fielders. Offensively, however, the Sox lose Tyler O’Neill and should experience some regression from standout Jarren Duran and platoon hitter Rob Refsnyder. We’re entering the 2025 season with a slight overall markdown with more emphasis against left-handed splits.

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Tampa Bay Rays 2025 Win Total: Open 78.5, Now 80.5

2024 Result: Under 84.5 (80-82 / Pythag: 74)

Two years ago this team made winning look easy. A red-hot start led to 99 regular season wins; a vast contrast to 2024’s 80-win season that left a lot of people scratching their heads. And it could have been worse judging by their 74 pythag wins. All was not lost as the Rays wisely transitioned to trade deadline sellers being buried in the standings at the All-Star Break. There’s always next year, right? Then Hurricane Milton ravaged the Tropicana Field roof and rendered the stadium unusable for the foreseeable future. To keep it in perspective, the Trop was just a minor part of the widespread damage affecting a lot of people. As a result, the Rays will play at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this season. The market senses weakness with this team in transition. Does that spell opportunity for us bettors?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• H Kim (SS)
• D Jansen (C)
• J Boyle (SP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• J Springs (SP – LHP)
• J Siri (CF)
• C Devenski (RP – RHP)
• T Alexander (LHP)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 78 – 83

— Position Players —

Charles Dickens on the Tampa Bay offense: 2023 was the best of times, 2024 was the worst of times. (Look, I’m not the literary department of the house.) Production dropped 32% as every major offensive category except for stolen bases fell through the floor. Removing steals from the conversation, the Rays went from no worse than 6th to no better than 23rd in the Majors.

Yet this was far from a surprise. A decline was in the cards given multiple key indicators. In 2023, 3 of the team’s 5 most productive hitters had BABIPs over .350 (Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe, and Harold Ramirez). Uber-talented young shortstop Wander Franco was effectively removed from the MLB in August 2023 for some ugly off-field stuff. It’s hard to maintain the highest of highs when multiple players posted career numbers and payroll constraints kept management from adding fuel to the fire. The numbers just about say it all…

TBR Offense, 2024 vs. 2023 Comparison

	2024 Value	2024 Rank		2023 Value	2023 Rank
wRC+	95	23rd		117	2nd
R	604	29th		860	4th
HR	147	28th		230	6th
SB	178	4th		160	4th
AVG	.230	27th		.260	3rd
OBP	.302	24th		.331	4th
SLG	.366	29th		.445	4th

In the large-sample sport of baseball, just a few percentage points can cover a wide swath of average-ish offenses. Take wRC+ in 2024 for example. 14 teams fit within a band spanning 5% above (105) and 5% below (95) the MLB average. A difference of a couple percent translates to moving just as many or more positions in the pecking order.

Fortunately for the organization, signs of the team’s decline were evident when the trade deadline rolled around. They sold high on Isaac Paredes and Amed Rosario with their first half 139 and 117 wRC+, respectively. Even fan favorite Randy Arozarena was dealt after a slow start to his season. Naturally, he heated up down the stretch run for Seattle. All tolled, the Rays experienced a 11% drop from the first half of the season to the second half with these divestitures.

Reversal Of Fortunes?

The position player corps was retooled in the summer then tweaked a bit this winter. The only true position player loss is centerfielder Jose Siri via trade to the Mets for reliever Eric Orze. In his place is former Dodgers prospect Jonny DeLuca who came to the Rays a year ago in the Tyler Glasnow deal. Both are plus defenders, though Siri edges him out as a top four centerfielder last year by either DRS or FRV. On the flip side, DeLuca offers more at the plate with a 15% lower strikeout rate. Otherwise, their valuation should be very similar across a 400-500 PA season.

First baseman Yandy Diaz and his neighbor Brandon Lowe were circulated in trade rumors early this winter. This spurred the club to vocalize that these two are not on the offseason trading block. As we all know, terms are often subject to change come late July. Yandy is projected to rebound somewhere between his 2023 high and 2024 low for a 1-2 win net increase. Projections call for a 15% offensive uptick. Brandon continues to be a stable left-handed bat in manager Kevin Cash’s lineup. His defense fluctuates between decent and meh but he’s yet to be a below-average hitter in a single season. Only injuries have held him back the last few years.

Corner outfielder Josh Lowe is another rebound candidate to settle in between his 2023 & 2024 numbers. That marks a 15% gain offensively and an additional 1-2 wins much like Yandy Diaz. As with any team that might become summertime sellers, build that potential into your projections. Instead of Yandy and Brandon adding 3 or 4 wins for the Rays, it could end up being more like 1-3 if successful first halves lead to their departures.

Time To Let the Up-And-Comers Eat?

Part of President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander’s master plan hinges on an impressive trio of infield prospects. Last year’s Isaac Paredes trade and Wander Franco’s banishment opened a couple doors for them. This prospect strength also gives the rumors behind trading Brandon Lowe a little more substance. Here’s a quick look:

3B Junior Caminero is slated to be the Rays’ regular third baseman upon graduating as last year’s #1 prospect. Good power and hit tools put him in the 2-3 WAR range as a plus-15% hitter. The 21-year-old briefly debuted in 2023 then spent the last six weeks of the 2024 season in the Majors. Defense could be shaky but his big bat keeps third base at par with last year’s Paredes-led group.

2B/3B Curtis Mead did not make the most of his two opportunities to shine with the Rays last year, slashing just .238/.282/.287 in 38 games. The well-rounded prospect also failed to dazzle at second and third bases. His 2025 Opening Day status could come down to beating out veteran depth piece Eloy Jimenez in Spring Training.

SS Carson Williams is likely one year out from making his mark in the MLB. The 21-year-old shortstop is a speedy, slick defender with power who slashed .256/.352/.469 in AA. If Williams continues to hit in AAA don’t be surprised by a late-2025 debut.

Tying Up Loose Ends

Projected starting left fielder Christopher Morel was the MLB player returned for Isaac Paredes. Even though he’s spent just a couple months with the Rays, Morel’s common bond with his new teammates is the rough 2024 after a strong 2023 phenomenon. He takes over for Randy Arozarena with similar subpar fielding and enough bat to replace Randy’s pre-trade numbers; not peak Arozarena’s though. There’s plenty of weight placed in Christopher rebounding from a .233 BABIP and moving on from a couple nagging lower body injuries to arrive at a 1+ WAR outlook.

The catcher group is retooled with longtime Blue Jay Danny Jansen in to lead the way in 2025. Jansen and last season’s primary backstop Ben Rortvedt could be an effective righty/lefty pairing that tacks on an additional win. I have to take Danny’s projections for firm rebounds on both sides with a grain of salt – he is a 30-year-old catcher after all. Uncertainty with projecting Jansen’s defense and accounting for a small downgrade in center keep the Rays fielding numbers around neutral or slightly below.

Jonathan Aranda should get reps at DH and spelling Yandy Diaz at first base. He hits the ball hard, especially against righties where the Rays need help. And while they wait for the next big thing at shortstop, light-hitting Taylor Walls eventually gets help from the sharp-fielding Ha-Seong Kim once he returns from shoulder surgery rehab. Plus there is always the fallback option of flexible infielder Jose Caballero. The shortstop soup is not ideal though far from a terrible way to bide time for Carson Williams to get ready for 2026. Tampa Bay has work to do to rebuild their lineup – especially if they lose a player or two along the way – but should gain around 3% offensively in the process.

— Rotation —

I am impressed by how well the rotation functioned without ace Shane McClanahan. ERA, strikeouts, and walks all ranked in the top ten. Even FIP and xFIP were on the right side of average. The big knock against was their seventh-lowest 811.0 innings that comes with the territory of Kevin Cash throwing everything he has at the situation. Beyond the absence of McClanahan, Cash’s problem was losing Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale at the trade deadline in addition to working around Jeffrey Springs’ injuries. Eflin left on a high note; Civale on a lackluster one. Their combined production was along the mid-4.00s line, making the process of moving on a little more palatable.

More Where That Came From

The Rays have plenty of arms to deal with the loss of the 36 starts and 2.3 WAR from Eflin and Civale. According to Erik Neander, left-hander Shane McClanahan’s target workload is 150 innings. Some of those innings could be out of the bullpen to supplement 25+ starts. Mid-3.00s effectiveness by virtue of a 25%+ strikeout rate and plenty of ground balls gets Shane to a 3 WAR valuation. Shane Baz returned from his own Tommy John rehab in July 2024 with a 3.06 ERA, 4.07 FIP/4.39 xFIP that projects around the 4.00 mark after regressing his .229 BABIP. Depth of start continues to be an issue for the hard-throwing righty though, holding his value to 1-2 WAR.

Taj Bradley is another one who could stand to stretch out his starts a bit more. Last year’s 5.52 innings/start was a solid step in the right direction, as was his ERA reduction from 5.59 as a rookie to 4.11. Upper-3.00s xFIPs in both seasons justify a projection around 4.00 with a touch more volume to put him in the 2+ WAR range. Expect similar numbers from Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell in their second full seasons as Rays starters.

Plus their depth is promising, whether it is sub-3.00 swingman Drew Rasmussen or unproven arms like Mike Vasil and Joe Rock. Rasmussen was an effective opener and lockdown reliever for Kevin Cash upon return from injury last summer (2.83 ERA, 1.35 FIP/2.57 xFIP). He’s projected for 2 WAR as a utility pitcher that is quite valuable in a system like this. The injury histories clouding most of these pitchers hold the 2025 rotation to status quo with slight upside. It’s not the talent level that holds them back this season.

— Bullpen —

It’s uncommon for a Rays bullpen to underperform under Kevin Cash’s watch. Last season’s unit was fine when you consider their tenth-best 3.73 ERA and a ton of innings (629.2). This is the Tampa Bay Rays though, so some of this extra volume is a product of someone like Tyler Alexander coming in for multiple innings behind an opener. On that topic, Alexander was let go after the worst season of his career. Former Detroit teammate Alex Faedo was picked up off waivers to assumedly play a similar role.

Key losses from 2024 extend beyond Alexander and the poorly-performing Chris Devenski. Setup men Jason Adam and Phil Maton were shipped at the trade deadline; the former for several prospects, the latter for cash. The returns are a reflection of the disparity in their first half performances. In their places are Edwin Uceta and Garrett Cleavinger, a pair of relievers who posted career highs in innings last year. Uceta was a big strikeout guy that had great success with his sinker – not so much with heavy ground ball production but from tons of swings-and-misses. It’s natural to be skeptical of another 35%+ strikeout rate in 2025 that got him to a 1.7 WAR value on a 1.51 ERA and 1.70 FIP/2.49 xFIP. Cleavinger will be tested again as a left-handed workhorse with mid-3.00+ expectations.

Reliability is not what closer Pete Fairbanks is known for. Four IL stints over the last two seasons limited him to 45.1 innings in each. In 2024, Fairbanks lost over 7% from his strikeout rate and over 5% from his ground ball rate. It can be tough to operate in high-leverage situations when one of your two pitches fails you. That’s what happened to Pete’s slider – his devastating out pitch of 2023 that became quite hittable. Projections keep him in the mid-3.00s range assuming his strikeout ability rebounds somewhat.

Where’s the Beef?

Kevin Cash needs multiple swingman types in his bullpen to run his system. As noted in the rotation section, Drew Rasmussen straddles the line as does former Detroit “utility pitcher” Alex Faedo. Manuel Rodriguez likely gets a chance to extend into an innings eater at a sub-4.00 level alongside heavy ground ball pitcher Kevin Kelly and his low arm slot. Inexperienced arms like Mason Montgomery, Mike Vasil, and Hunter Bigge are also in line for expanded roles while the roster is in this in-between stage. Neander and Cash aren’t looking for big free agent singings to the bullpen while the Rays are on the outside of the postseason landscape.

There is a distinct possibility that the club goes the route of seller again this summer. Pete Fairbanks’ contract has a club extension for 2026 and could be a target for a contender looking to beef up their bullpen down the stretch. As we all know, reliever performance can fall to one extreme or the other. But the upper-3.00 talent level of most of Tampa Bay’s relief unit provides a decent floor to operate from. I doubt the 2025 bullpen will finish the season as one of the best, although a mid-pack ranking without a ton of experienced arms is perfectly fine. At least there is upside with the young arms to go with their uncertainty.

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Toronto Blue Jays 2025 Win Total: Open 78, Now 79

2024 Win Total: Under 87 (74-88 / Pythag: 73)

Things were supposed to get better, not worse. The Toronto Blue Jays’ post-2020 resurgence ran into turbulence after seasons of 91, 92, and 89 wins. Essentially every facet except for defense stepped downward. Lack of power, blown saves, tough BABIP luck, etc. all struck at once. Now the promising young nucleus north of the border is in jeopardy of breaking up as Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are headed towards free agency at season’s end. This franchise went a decade since finishing last in the AL East and the competition is arguably stiffer this season. Looking for a wild card comeback team for 2025? The Jays just might be the one.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• M Scherzer (SP – RHP)
• A Santander (OF)
• J Hoffman (RP – RHP)
• A Gimenez (2B)
• N Sandlin (RP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• S Horwitz (2B)
• J Romano (RP – RHP)
• R Yarbrough (RP – LHP)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 76 – 89

— Position Players —

Last year’s Blue Jays preview featured a table showing the lineup’s downward trajectory that happened to be steeper than expected. Step forward into the 2024 season and the deterioration continued. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was about the only Jays hitter other than Spencer Horwitz who produced enough to keep the offense remotely productive. Sure, their fifth-lowest .283 BABIP did not help matters but the overall lack of oomph left them struggling to put runs on the board. Toronto’s .389 slugging percentage was the franchise’s lowest since 1982!

TOR Offensive Comparison w/ League Rankings (2022 – 2024)

	wRC+	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2024	101 (13th)	671 (23rd)	156 (26th)	.241 (19th)	.313 (13th)	.389 (20th)
2023	107 (8th)	746 (14th)	188 (16th)	.256 (8th)	.329 (7th)	.417 (13th)
2022	118 (2nd)	775 (4th)	200 (7th)	.264 (1st)	.329 (3rd)	.431 (3rd)

How do the Jays turn this thing around? Start by adding impact free agent Anthony Santander into the heart of the lineup. The 30-year-old switch hitter was a reliable 150 game/650 PA player for the Orioles the last few years – just what the doctor ordered up in Toronto. Inserting a plus-20% hitter who can crank out 30+ home runs is the kind of support that can help turn the tide.

Santander addresses the Jays’ offensive weakness among the outfielder group (85 wRC+). Especially as George Springer reached the ripe age of 35 and has been declining since arriving in Toronto. Regression from last year’s .245 BABIP supports a rebound to his new baseline around plus 5-10%. Fortunately, centerfielder Daulton Varsho might be ready for the season’s start post rotator cuff surgery. Last year may have dispelled 2023’s offensive dropoff as his new baseline, pointing toward an average bat coupled with stellar defense.

Outfield depth is interesting, to say the least. Left-handed hitting Nathan Lukes pounded righties in his short-sample second stint in the Majors. Is he a prime partner for George Springer on rest or DH days? Maybe, though Springer’s splits have been moderate the last couple years. Plus Davis Schneider is still around despite losing his bat last year. Barring injury to a corner outfielder or new second baseman Andres Gimemez, Schneider’s workload slims down considerably if he cannot capitalize on left-handed pitching like in his rookie season. Fortunately, Anthony Santander solidifies Toronto’s outfield as its third everyday player. Springer carries the caveat of “almost everyday” via rest days from the field.

Anchoring the Infield

The December trade with Cleveland that swapped Spencer Horwitz for 3x Gold Glover Andres Gimemez ushers in a philosophical change at second base. 2024’s conglomerate of players including Horwitz, Davis Schneider, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, etc. produced a 108 wRC+ with neutral defense. Gimenez flips the script as a light-hitting elite fielder with potential to be an average hitter. Anything close to average adds at least 1 win to the position in 2025. This defensive lift at second base outweighs any dropoff in the outfield, keeping the Blue Jays in elite company.

Ernie Clement is somewhat of a glove-first player at third base, although his time as a starter may be limited. Big-hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez is likely to find his way onto the roster if he can find a modest amount of defense. Prospect graduate Addison Barger is also trying to squeeze back into the mix as a potential platoon partner with Clement. But the Jays’ roster is crowded, especially if Will Wagner is on the 26-man as a talented left-handed DH type.

I see immense value in bringing on players like Santander and Gimenez to lock down two positions that were revolving doors. The double-edged sword aspect of these additions is reduced playing time for the handful of guys who are still proving themselves. Manager John Schneider will certainly earn his pay once again by pulling the right strings on all of these options.

Last Call

Two of the Blue Jays’ most notable players are on course to reach free agency at the season’s end: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Vladdy thumped his way to a .323/.396/.544 worth 5.5 WAR behind a .342 BABIP and elite 0.75 BB/K ratio. Since contract negotiations fell apart, the 25-year-old is essentially playing for his next big deal. And consensus projections put him around the +50%, 5 WAR level without any meaningful defensive value at first base. That’s around 15% lighter than 2024.

As for Guerrero’s running mate Bo Bichette, lower body injuries have bogged down his last couple seasons. Are his days as a 4+ WAR everyday shortstop a thing of the past? Perhaps, though a healthy Bichette still projects as a 140-game player with allocations for IL time and/or rest days. Expect a plus-5-15% bat that strongly outpaces last year’s rough .225/.277/.322 slash line waylaid by a calf injury then a broken finger. Rookie Leo Jimenez looked good in limited duty as a capable replacement – whether it be this year from the bench or in 2026 if Bo moves on.

Fortunately for the Jays, rock solid backstop Alejandro Kirk will not hit free agency until after next season. He and Tyler Heineman move forward without Danny Jansen, improving the catcher group’s defensive value. Kirk also has offensive upside after a couple slightly below-average seasons slashing .251/.327/.358 (95 wRC+). Based on our modeling, Toronto’s run production will improve to align more with their underlying numbers by virtue of Anthony Santander’s consistency and Bichette absorbing Guerrero’s regression. Although the lineup figures to be more stable than last year, less-experienced players will have a considerable impact one way or another throughout the campaign.

— Rotation —

Toronto’s starting pitchers were not completely immune from the team’s overall downward pull. The sturdy threesome of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt combined for 544.1 innings across 94 starts. That accounted for 63.2% of the rotation’s eleventh-highest 861.2 IP – exactly what you want to see out of your top three starters. The Jays even got a handful of decent starts from the maligned Alek Manoah before losing him to elbow surgery.

TOR “Big Three” Starting Pitchers (2024)

	Starts/IP	K/BB	BABIP	ERA	FIP/xFIP	WAR
K Gausman	31/181.0	2.89	.281	3.83	3.77/4.22	2.9
J Berrios	32/192.1	2.83	.256	3.60	4.72/4.25	1.0
C Bassitt	31/171.0	2.40	.333	4.16	4.08/4.28	2.2

Now 34 years of age, staff ace Kevin Gausman seems to have established a new upper-3.00 baseline with stable projections from last season. Both he and Jose Berrios join Chris Bassitt as contact pitchers without much swing-and-miss, keeping their projections in the same ballpark. They’re not going to blow anyone away this season but have a solid track record together as 170+ inning starters worth 6-7 WAR. It’s a solid foundation to work from.

Grizzled veteran Max Scherzer joins the club on a one-year deal at the age of 40. He’s pinned to a modest 20-ish starts after three straight seasons of injury setbacks. Another reminder that Father Time is undefeated. Look at a sub-4.00 Scherzer as replacing Yusei Kikuchi’s work (22 starts, 2.1 WAR) before being traded to the Astros where he flipped his first-half .340 BABIP into a dominant finish for the AL West champions. There’s never a doubt that Mad Max is a fierce competitor who takes the mound with authority. Whether his body can keep up with his mindset is where reality steps in.

Toronto’s New Guard

Bowden Francis is in line to make the Opening Day rotation after a big step forward into the rotation to close out the 2024 season. Of those final 9 starts, the righty went 6+ innings in 7 of them. This year will serve as a reality check for his well-commanded repertoire after posting a 2.92 ERA and 4.21 FIP/3.92 xFIP under a .173 BABIP as a starter. Francis is more of a command pitcher than one who generates a lot of strikeouts, earning modest low-4.00 projections as he stretches out into 150+ innings if all goes well.

Expect Yariel Rodriguez to begin the season as the Blue Jays’ swingman. His transition from Japan was not smooth, yielding a 4.47 ERA over 21 starts without any disagreement from his underlying numbers. Command woes cut many starts short but his stuff is good otherwise. The overarching concern that keeps this rotation in line with last season is the lack of depth and notable upside. Jake Bloss, who came over from Houston in the Kikuchi trade, does not appear to be ready for a spot on the 26-man roster until late summer, if at all. Retreads like Ryan Yarbrough and Eric Lauer may get the call if depth is tapped early in the season.

— Bullpen —

Aside from isolated seasons like 2023, Toronto’s bullpen is not typically a strong suit. But 2024 reached a whole other level of disappointment. Its -2.5 WAR and 4.84 FIP ranked dead last; only Colorado’s relievers posted a higher ERA. Trusted closer Jordan Romano battled a right elbow injury, suffered through a 6.59 ERA in just 15 appearances, then was left to enter free agency after six seasons with the club. What a tough way to say goodbye.

The Blue Jays indirectly swapped Romano with Philadelphia for veteran Jeff Hoffman. Rough math puts Hoffman in Jordan’s pre-2024 position as a 1+ WAR high-leverage mainstay. He earned this distinction with a 30%+ strikeout rate backed by strong swing-and-miss grades. It takes more than one to hold down the fort though. A Blue Jays resurgence into the AL East conversation hinges in part on the relief unit finding its league-average stature. Mid-3.00 setup man Yimi Garcia returns to Toronto after being traded to Seattle at the deadline – another righty with plus swing-and-miss stuff and enough of a mix to keep hitters from pounding him.

Beyond Hoffman and Garcia, however, the bullpen is full of 4.00 arms like Erik Swanson, Nick Sandlin, and Chad Green. Plus there is an abundance of similar pitchers that can be rotated in from AAA Buffalo. Two names of note who are expected to provide plus value are swingman Yariel Rodriguez and middle reliever Ryan Burr. Burr is battling tendonitis this spring though widely projects for a mid-to-upper-3.00 contribution. 2024 was an abomination that will soon become a faint memory with Jeff Hoffman in the saddle and a host of middling relievers behind him. It’s not a sexy group but a boring “middle of the pack” designation nets the Blue Jays 4-5 wins of value.

Bank On the Jays?

By the numbers, the Toronto Blue Jays appear poised to tack on anywhere from a couple up to double-digit wins over their rough 2024. That should make their win total of 79 attackable similar to the Minnesota Twins, who we bet over at 83.5. Yet there are a few issues holding us back to date. Stiffer competition in the AL East compared to the AL Central is one sticking point. Banking on 4-5 wins of improvement from the bullpen is another. There is plenty of meat on the bone for those who are bullish on the Jays – the question is whether we can get there with our money before camp breaks in a couple weeks.

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2025 AL East Projected Standings

1. New York Yankees (93-69)
2. Baltimore Orioles (90-72)
3. Boston Red Sox (85-77)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80)

Down To the Wire

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