Infamously known for a lack of widespread playoff-caliber competition, the AL Central turned out to have one of the better divisional races of the 2024 season. Cleveland held firm as one of the more consistent teams while Chicago broke records with their “performance”. For anyone paying attention to the MLB last year, you know the context. What made the Central particularly interesting was September’s reversal of fortunes between Minnesota and Detroit – the witching hour, if you will. Also in the mix was a Kansas City club that blew all expectations out of the water, making four viable candidates with 162 games to settle the score in a wide open 2025 AL Central.

Another season in the books marks The BetCrushers’ 6th Annual Divisional Previews for the 2025 MLB season. We go as deep as we can to find value in the futures markets – with a special focus on regular season win totals. It’s a labor of love for a good purpose. We appreciate you all! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)

2024 Division Winner: Cleveland Guardians

2024 AL Central Final Standings

1. Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
2. Detroit Tigers (86-76)
3. Kansas City Royals (86-76)
4. Minnesota Twins (82-80)
5. Chicago White Sox (41-121)

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Cleveland Guardians 2025 Win Total: Open 85.5, Now 83

2024 Result: Over 78.5 (92-69 / Pythag: 90)

We weren’t high enough on Cleveland’s lineup, defense, or bullpen and were too high on their rotation. Then Shane Bieber went down with an elbow injury. Yet somehow it turned out to be enough of a net positive to deliver a smooth win total ride. Sometime’s it is better not to ask questions but that’s the whole point of these previews. Kudos to Stephen Vogt for his AL Manager of the Year honors. Not bad for your first season on the job! The AL Central is stiffening up though, prompting the question whether the Guardians are up for the challenge of holding off three viable contenders this year.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• P Sewald (RP – RHP)
• C Santana (1B)
• S Cecconi (RHP)
• L Ortiz (SP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• J Naylor (1B)
• A Gimenez (2B)
• N Sandlin (RP- RHP)
• E Morgan (RP – RHP)
• M Boyd (SP – LHP)
• C Carrasco (SP – RHP)
• S Barlow (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 74 – 86

— Bullpen —

It is rare for one of our previews to lead off with the bullpen. But this one was damn good. Their fall from elite status in 2023 sharply reversed course as heavyweight closer Emmanuel Clase got plenty of help from his friends. The bullpen finished the 2024 campaign with a 42-12 record while converting more than three-quarters of their save opportunities. It’s cliche to say the numbers speak for themselves – but they do, and I’m gonna let them talk for a minute.

CLE Bullpen, 2024 vs. 2023 Comparison

	2024 Value	2024 Rank		2023 Value	2023 Rank
WAR	7.7	1st		4.2	16th
IP	623.0	8th		586.2	18th
SV	53	2nd		47	6th
W	42	4th		37	11th
L	12	1st		34	24th
ERA	2.57	1st		3.79	9th
FIP	3.30	1st		4.02	10th
xFIP	3.67	2nd		4.29	19th
K%	26.0%	3rd		23.6%	16th
BB%	8.1%	7th		9.3%	13th

Across the board improvements were a product of a few factors. The obvious place to start is two-time AL Reliever of the Year Emmanuel Clase, who pulled a 180 on his pedestrian 2023 season (3.22 ERA, 2.91FIP/3.45 xFIP). Last year, Clase allowed just 10 runs across 74.1 innings. That’s maths out to a 0.61 ERA coupled with a 2.22 FIP/2.81 xFIP. A 3.2% K rate increase and 8.4% hard hit rate decrease underline his return to form. But this was a “low year” on the Clase BABIP see-saw that began with a .262 mark in his 2021 debut. The next three seasons came in at .222, .295, and then .195 in 2024. Any guesses where it ends up next year?

Much More Steak Than Sizzle

Just as impressive – if not more so – is the supporting cast that made this stellar relief unit hum. Five workhorses including Clase pitched 65+ innings and continue forward into 2025 as the stout core of the bullpen. Losses include Eli Morgan, Scott Barlow, and Nick Sandlin, which could have been worse. The cast of key holdovers include:

• Cade Smith (R) – The rookie sensation pitched 75.1 innings en route to an MLB-leading 2.7 WAR in relief. Controlling at bats with a 6.06 K/BB ratio without BABIP funny business (.303) led to a legit 1.91 ERA backed by a 1.40 FIP/2.41 xFIP.
• Hunter Gaddis (R) – Mixed signals come out of the big fella’s breakout campaign. His .205 BABIP butts heads with a strong 11.5% swinging strike rate that rose 4.2% from the year prior.
• Tim Herrin (L) – The lefty specialist succeeded in those spots where Stephen Vogt needed him most. Herrin put up another walk rate just below 10% with strong swing-and-miss numbers (13.0%) and a depressed .236 BABIP.

Reality Check Incoming?

On the positive end, both Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have the age and profiles to deliver 70+ innings again. It’s questionable whether breakout rookie Smith maintains a sub-2.00 ERA, though his anticipated dropoff is less than that of Gaddis and Tim Herrin. The latter two have a reckoning with .205 and .236 BABIPs, respectively. A big picture aspect needing addressed are the 156.2 innings that the outgoing Morgan/Barlow/Sandlin trio ate up.

Trevor Stephan should return from Tommy John rehab at some point this season. Each of the three seasons prior to his 2024 injury absence yielded 60+ innings. Piecing him together with free agent signee Paul Sewald makes a pair of gambles to go with their hammers. Otherwise, unproven arms like Andrew Walters, Erik Sabrowski, and Nic Enright will soak up middle innings. Banking on insane numbers from multiple high-leverage pitchers again is a tough ask, though we still anticipate Cleveland’s bullpen being a top ten or even top five unit.

— Rotation —

Leo Morgenstern at FanGraphs.com noted how the 2024 Guardians were “the only team to ever make the playoffs in a full season with more bullpen WAR than rotation WAR.” That statement says a lot about this division-winning team. First and foremost, it credits the bullpen for its lights-out dominance. Second, it highlights the limited number of innings that Cleveland’s starters pitched. Those 805.0 innings were the lowest in franchise history outside of the three seasons shortened by strike or pandemic. Let that sink in for a moment.

That comment also speaks to how critical rotation improvements are in an increasingly difficult AL Central. Playing within their payroll constraints, the front office went after the lowest of low-hanging fruit: re-signing rotation staple Shane Bieber to a one-year deal. His 2025 debut is likely to be delayed after missing all but 2 starts due to Tommy John surgery last April. A mid-3.00s projection is fine considering his broad repertoire and veteran makeup as a grinder. The biggest drawback is not counting on his usual 6 innings/start average – one particular strength of his game throughout the years.

A pair of December trades brought in former prospect Slade Cecconi from Arizona and Luis L Ortiz from Pittsburgh. Ideally, Cecconi continues to develop at AAA Columbus then integrates into the bullpen and/or makes a handful of starts. Ortiz should shake out as a low/mid 4.00s guy with sub-20% strikeout rates. At least his fastball command improved after a rough 2023 season, putting him in a modest 1+ WAR bracket as a bottom-half starter with multi-inning bullpen utility.

Plenty To Go Around

Adding Luis Ortiz and reclaiming Shane Bieber from free agency were important steps in bolstering starting pitching depth. They add punch to a group that obviously struggled to meet their minimum duties a year ago. What moves the needle for the retuning threesome of Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, and Gavin Williams? To Bibee’s credit, season two in the Big Leagues tacked 6 more starts onto a strong rookie campaign without compromising his 5.6-inning average depth of start. Strikeout and walk rates improved, pushing his K/BB ratio from 3.13 as a rookie to 4.25. Sure, Bibee’s ERA floated from 2.98 to 3.47, as to be expected with two seasons of FIPs right around 3.50. With Shane Bieber working his way back to full strength, manager Steven Vogt will call on Tanner to lead the pack again. Multiple projections call for business as usual with the 26-year-old.

His two main partners in crime, Ben Lively and Gavin Williams, are back in the fold for their division title defense. Both are contact pitchers who generate enough ground balls to play to the Guardians’ defensive strengths. Another common bond between these two is an emphasis on stretching out their starts. They combined for 227.0 innings over 45 starts last season, barely breaching the 5 innings/start threshold. Even with a reinforced rotation group, the Guardians truly need their starters to eat more innings as bluntly alluded to in the bullpen breakdown.

The 20 start plateau is new territory for the 25-year-old Williams. He has yet to toss 100 innings at the MLB level, though 2025 sets up as the year to push him there. Optimism for improved effectiveness surrounds the 3.67 FIP/4.12 xFIP versus the 4.86 ERA, projecting as a low-4.00s pitcher while stretching out. Lively, on the other hand, has a long professional track record domestically and overseas. Good command makes up for a lack of dynamic stuff even though he registered 5+ innings in less than half of last year’s 29 starts. A volume increase is wishful thinking for the 33-year-old who will make just $2.25M. Expect the increased use of his two-seamer to persist into 2025 with 4.00+ effectiveness.

Building Up Reserves

Aggregated value projections for the Bibee/Williams/Lively trio condense to a 5-6 WAR range, bracketing last year’s 5.4 figure. But there’s still another 40 or so starts to account for. Departed pitchers Matthew Boyd, Carlos Carrasco, and a couple others filled the gap from Shane Bieber’s early-season injury. Vogt will undoubtedly go back to the well with some combination of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, and Joey Cantillo to make ends meet. Unfortunately, all three posted 5.00+ ERAs and sub-5.0 innings/start averages in 2024. Can Cleveland get more out of these guys before the team ends up in the same trap of leaning heavily on the bullpen?

McKenzie was downright terrible last year with dwindling command and swing-and-miss stuff. This is quite possibly Triston’s last stand with the club, garnering projections around the 5.00 mark yet again. In fact, he and Logan Allen delivered sub-replacement level performances last season. Allen’s was the most surprising after 2023’s strong rookie campaign that was more along the lines of Tanner Bibee’s. Unfortunately, the young left-hander lost the handle on his arsenal. Bloated home run and hard contact rates pushed up an ugly 5.73 ERA and 5.87 FIP/4.75 xFIP.

This leaves Joey Cantillo as another viable option after his solid MLB debut. Look for improved command in Spring Training to see if he may stick in the rotation early this season in lieu of McKenzie. Joey is another ground ball pitcher with decent swing-and-miss stuff that plays well in the Guardians’ framework. But Cantillo and the incoming Slade Cecconi have plenty of work to do if they are going to help lift this rotation back to respectability. Less certainty at the MLB level keeps improvements to the starting pitcher group modestly in the 2-3 win range.

— Position Players —

Offense has not been the Cleveland Guardians’ calling card for quite some time. Defense? Different story. After a down 2023 season on both fronts, the Guards’ position player corps snapped out of its funk and returned to a reasonable mid-pack standing. We, among others, expected rebounds from guys like Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez to pull up the offense. The first two obliged with boosted production, especially against left-handed pitching. At least Gimenez continued to provide stellar defense at second base as his bat lagged. Several more positions like catcher rose to the occasion to put the team back into a top five defensive position.

A couple offseason trades shook things up enough to take note of. Management indicated that Josh Naylor could be dealt on the brink of his final season of team control. Then it seemed like they would keep the first baseman. But the pre-Christmas carousel spun Naylor off to Arizona before the Guards reunited with old friend, free agent Carlos Santana. It’s far from a clean swap as Carlos is a decade older and carries much less upside. Less power, better plate discipline, and a tick up against left-handed pitching is the Reader’s Digest version of their offensive tradeoff. But for an old dude, Santana still fields the position quite well.

A more convoluted series of trades sent Andres Gimenez to the Blue Jays in return for Spencer Horwitz, who was then flipped for Pirates’ pitcher Luis L Ortiz. Increased rotation depth doesn’t help the fact that second base is presumed to be manned by pure rookie Juan Brito. Brito won’t be on an island though as other young flexible players like Daniel Schneeman and Angel Martinez also figure to get reps at second. The net fielding decline from losing Andres Gimenez likely overshadows the defensive gains from Carlos Santana at first base.

Grinding Through Development

Aside from the Naylor/Santana swap, the Guardians have enough regulars and graduating prospects to fill the position player half of the 26-man roster. Known quantities Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan project similarly to their 2024 seasons with minor decline potential. Both carried the lion’s share of stolen base activity, to which Ramirez is hard pressed to steal 41 bases again. Kwan making up missed time due to injury should fill in that gap though. Losing Gimenez’ 30 stolen bases and base running skills won’t help correct the Guards’ recent fall from being a positive running team though.

Shortstop Brayan Rocchio has the athleticism and glove work to continue as a plus defensive shortstop with his first full MLB season in the books. Plate discipline offsets a lack of power, making a 15% upgrade very feasible for the 24-year-old – especially after being held back by a .245 BABIP. Rookie designated hitter Kyle Manzardo took his lumps as the strong-side platoon partner with David Fry. He struck out about 5 times as much as he walked but hit the ball hard. Like Rocchio, several projections peg him for a 15% improvement that primarily impacts the team’s production against righties. Unfortunately, David Fry won’t be ready for DH duties on Opening Day after elbow surgery. Fry and Jhonkensy Noel will eventually tag team against southpaw pitching once David is healthy.

Centerfielder Lane Thomas garnered trade rumors this winter, yet he’s still with the team as of now. That’s probably a good thing considering how Thomas helped stabilize the position group after coming over from the Nationals. Tyler Freeman struggled to a .209/.305/.321 slash line, though a .227 BABIP offers hope for the 26-year-old to take another step forward. At least last season’s center field debut showed that Freeman can play the position well. Whether it is the established Lane Thomas or up-and-coming Tyler Freeman taking the majority of reps in center, collective improvements worth about 1 win can be unlocked.

The Juggling Act

There are valuation tradeoffs throughout the Guardians’ 2025 lineup. Declines at first, second, and third bases can be mitigated to a certain extent by gains at shortstop and designated hitter. Right field was used as a catch-all headed up by Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel with limited defensive benefit. Brennan is limited to strong-side platoon duties but his partnership with Noel will be strained until David Fry returns to DH duty. At some point, Cleveland’s top prospect Chase DeLauter will get called up after crushing in the minors. Vogt will make room for him one way or another even though he shares similar weaknesses with Brennan.

David Fry’s elbow surgery will keep him from playing in the field for all of 2025. So it’s the Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges tandem behind the plate again. Everybody knows that Hedges provides next to no offensive value but fields the position quite well. That places all of the upside between the two backstops with the 25-year-old Naylor. Bo’s defensive skills progressed nicely serving as the primary catcher while his bat tailed off by 50% from the 2023 season. Consensus estimates put him back towards average in his second full season though, adding somewhere close to a win of value to his ledger. All told, there’s a lot that needs to settle out with Cleveland’s multitude of options. Our early offensive adjustments are minor and primarily focused on tightening up their handedness splits.

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Detroit Tigers 2025 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 84

2024 Result: Over 80.5 (86-76 / Pythag: 85)

A lot of stars were aligned for the Detroit Tigers to make the postseason. Tarik Skubal outlasted the competition en route to an American League Cy Young Award. The club finished on a 34-19 heater to climb ahead of the slumping Twins. And manager AJ Hinch’s Midas touch kept his team aligned for each day’s challenge. The result: an 86-win season that far exceeded what this club could muster for close to a decade. Now the AL Central is muddled with multiple challengers and no clear favorite. Is 2025 the year that the Tigers pull it together and claim the division crown for the first time since 2014?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J Flaherty (SP – RHP)
• T Kahnle (RP – RHP)
• G Torres (2B)
• A Cobb (SP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• S Miller (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 81 – 83

— Rotation —

It seems like forever ago that we shared the buzz for Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize in our Detroit Tigers preview. After repeated setbacks and flashes of brilliance, Tarik finally got his due: the 2024 American League Cy Young Award. His award-winning season was backed by superb numbers that should satisfy both old school and new school aficionados of the game:

• 18-4 record
• 31 starts, 192.0 IP
• 228 strikeouts, 35 walks (6.51 K/BB ratio)
• 2.39 ERA, 2.49 FIP/2.83 xFIP
• 5.9 WAR

We were neither high nor low on Detroit’s starting pitching differential from the prior season. Turns out the rotation was a couple WAR better via more strikeouts, less walks, and over a half-run better ERA, FIP, and xFIP. The collective 753.0 innings were dead last in the MLB, due in part to AJ Hinch using openers like Tyler Holton and Alex Faedo in 19 games. What’s even more interesting is that no pitcher other than Tarik Skubal started more than 22 games or posted more than 113 innings for the Tigers.

Hello Again

After a few months of receiving light interest in the free agency market, the Tigers inked Jack Flaherty to a 2-year deal just one offseason removed from bringing him on board the first time. Jack is back with a World Series ring and expectations more in line with his respectable second half numbers with the Dodgers (3.58 ERA, 4.16 FIP/3.77 xFIP). It’s fair to say that he faded somewhat down the stretch similar to his 2023 return to full-time duty. Estimates put Flaherty in the mid-3.00+ range across 26-30 starts in Motown. This equates to a mid-2s WAR value matching his first-half tenure with Detroit with lower effectiveness and more volume over the long haul. The Skubal-Flaherty one-two punch is back.

Tarik Skubal has the stuff and the command to repeat a sub-3.00 ERA across 190+ innings. No problem there. Reese Olson will be pushed for another 4-5 outings in year three after missing over a month due to a shoulder strain. A productive mix of ground balls and decent swing-and-miss stuff once again justifies sub-4.00 expectations and a 2+ WAR value. Asking for more from former top prospect Casey Mize is dangerous though. He could deliver 30 starts like in 2021 or miss significant time due to injury as evidenced in multiple seasons. The low-4.00s contact pitcher leaves a massive question mark in terms of workload ahead in 2025.

Free agent signee Alex Cobb is on board to fill a lower-end slot after missing all but 3 starts last year. It was the third such season for Cobb in 15 MLB seasons. Hopefully 20+ starts isn’t too much to ask given his ripe age of 37. He’s a wily veteran who employs a sinker/splitter/curveball repertoire good enough to deliver a lifetime 54.6% ground ball rate and sub-4.00 ERA. Throw all these guys together and the chase for 162 starts looks much better than it would without Jack Flaherty.

Options Galore

With the ultra talented Tarik Skubal heading up the rotation, it is scary to think that top prospect Jackson Jobe is also bona fide ace material. The 22-year-old righty was called up to make 2 appearances at the end of the 2024 season, technically checking his MLB debut box. With Jack Flaherty back in town, the phenom may start the season in AAA after matriculating his way through the minors straight from high school. A strong Spring Training could change that though. Scouts love his pitch mix and command, though injuries held Jobe to less than 100 innings in any of those 3 seasons. 4.00+ expectations for a player without any meaningful MLB experience is fair, as is a 10-20 start workload.

Banking on your starting five to hang in there for 150+ outings isn’t the best policy. That’s one purpose of depth. Another is to support one or more of your plan As who is severely underperforming expectations. At least the Tigers have several more candidates working at AAA Toledo until injury knocks one of the above starters onto the IL. Keider Montero debuted to make 16 starts and 3 additional multi-inning appearances last year. Ty Madden took his first crack at the Big Leagues in 6 extended outings. Both have promise and should get tapped as rotation substitutes and/or bullpen reinforcements.

Matt Manning is available for a support role after a few MLB seasons with varying degrees of effectiveness. Unfortunately, Alex Faedo was squeezed out this winter despite showing his willingness to contribute in any fashion last seasons. Manning is low-4.00s arm for AJ to plug in wherever needed; Faedo was DFAd and picked up by the Rays. Jack Flaherty’s return helps the volume and depth aspects considerably, keeping the Tigers rotation in the same ballpark as last year.

— Bullpen —

Early outlooks for the Tigers bullpen range from very good to great, picking up where they left off. Their 3.55 ERA ranks fifth in the MLB with 45 saves just below the league-average conversion rate. One key underlying factor to reckon with is the unit’s third-lowest .262 BABIP. Front-and-center in this potential regression topic is AJ Hinch’s Swiss Army knife, Tyler Holton. His ability to succeed in any inning of the game fits the Tigers’ theme of making it work by any means. That includes 9 opener starts, 8 saves, and 94.1 IP last year after shouldering 85.1 innings the year prior. That’s a lot of mileage! Add that to an anemic .201 BABIP for more cautious expectations ahead.

Regardless, Tyler Holton is an integral part of a stacked high-leverage group consisting of Beau Brieske, Jason Foley, Will Vest, and offseason addition Tommy Kahnle. This collection of sub-4.00 arms has enough MLB experience to lean on, especially as 60+ inning producers. 35-year-old Kahnle has a history of injury setbacks so he carries more of a 40+ inning expectation. All but Brieske are accomplished ground ball pitchers, yet none are what you would consider to be true strikeout artists.

The bulk half inherits the late-career Kenta Maeda as swingman. He moved out of the rotation after 17 starts at a 7.42 ERA, 5.67 FIP/4.95 xFIP level; dramatically improving to 3.86 ERA, 3.79 FIP/3.76 xFIP as a multi-inning reliever. Some of those “relief” appearances actually came after the opener gave way. Nonetheless, the veteran’s performance was night-and-day compared to when he kicked off the 1st inning. Maeda plus the merry-go-round containing Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, Brant Hurter, Alex Lange, Mason Englert, etc. are ready to shoulder another big workload. Detroit’s bullpen has minor headwinds ahead but the pool is deep enough on both ends to retain much of its value from 2024.

— Position Players —

Make no mistake about it, the Tigers improved their offense. As they did with fielding, contrary to our preseason belief. Stepping up against right-handed pitching outweighed the pullback against southpaws to deliver an overall 6% production gain. Considering how Detroit did not steal many bases (76), hit a ton of home runs (162), or hit well for average (.234) it says a lot about how bad the 2023 lineup was. Two straight seasons of incremental improvements feed into the 2025 campaign where expectations around the clubhouse are higher. Will they realize a third uptick?

First, let’s look at the franchise’s best fielding season in over a decade. The outfield continued as a strong suit with the team’s best all-around player Riley Greene stepping up his game. Moving from center to left field may have been the ticket made possible by the lefty/righty combination of Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling. Meadows showed no splits weaknesses and he has the wheels to hold down center field when healthy. Rookie Wenceel Perez is a suitable corner outfielder to throw into the mix as well. This outfield group is talented enough – and young enough – to maintain a plus fielding value.

Management shuffled the infield deck of cards by releasing Gio Urshela last August and signing second baseman Gleyber Torres out of free agency. Rookie Jace Jung carries the potential for a small fielding improvement in lieu of Gio at third base without much certainty as his first full season looms ahead. Note that free agent Alex Bregman is still linked to the Tigers as we near Spring Training. Adding him would improve third base by several wins via significant offensive and defensive improvements. Torres was anything but a good second baseman in the last couple seasons with the Yankees, though he takes over for former prospect Colt Keith after posting marginal fielding grades. Increased playing time for Trey Sweeney at shortstop and catcher Jake Rogers’ defensive breakthrough pave the way for another strong fielding season across the board.

Finding the Right Combinations

Detroit’s splash move in the position player group – signing Gleyber Torres – changed a couple infielders’ plans in 2025. Colt Keith gets put in the corner at first base while former #1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson’s future wallows in AAA. Tork failed to seize what could be his final opportunity with the Tigers, failing to follow up on a strong second half of the 2023 season. Fortunately, both Torres and Keith should be plus 10-15% hitters and beef up the right side of the infield.

December’s ZIPS preview subtly mentioned how AJ Hinch pulled the right strings with platoons and matchups akin to his adept management of the pitching staff. That’s the sort of thing that makes reconciling 2025 projections very interesting in a value hunting sense. AJ has super utility players like Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibanez, and Matt Vierling to plug into his lineup as needed. McKinstry and Ibanez sacrifice offensive potency for positional flexibility as one-sided platoon players. Vierling may have overachieved by a few percentage points but is well worth the roster spot as an average hitter who can play most anywhere.

Last summer’s Jack Flaherty trade with the Dodgers returned MLB-ready shortstop Trey Sweeney and promising catcher prospect Thayron Liranzo. The Tigers promptly called up Sweeney to showcase strong glove work and, unfortunately, an anemic .218/.269/.373 slash line that leaves plenty of room for improvement. The kid hits the ball hard and strikes out quite a bit. Despite Trey’s deficiencies as a young player, he adds a spark to a rough position group headed up by the beleaguered Javier Baez. Will they at least combine to improve on a league-worst production from the shortstop position?

Playing Off Of Your Strengths

The outfield/DH group stood out from the team’s bottom-third offense. Detroit outfielders slashed .252/.321/.424, good enough to rank seventh in park-adjusted offense. The DH slot wasn’t quite as prolific, in part due to guys like Mark Canha, Justin-Henry Malloy, and even Riley Greene posting below-average numbers there. Maybe there is something to Riley bringing his A game when he’s playing the field. His non-DH production is night-and-day compared to those 130 designated hitter plate appearances that yielded a .172/.262/.388 line, 68% below his work while in an outfield position.

Other than missing a lot of time from a stress fracture in his back, Kerry Carpenter’s problem is lack of production against left-handed pitching. But that could be worse with plenty of platoon players to couple him with. The main question going into 2025 is how much regression to expect after mashing a 160 wRC+ in part-time duty. Using a +25% mark like his full 2023 season is a steep, but fair, adjustment. Riley Greene survived a correction from his .384 BABIP in 2023, establishing a solid +30% baseline for his age-24 season.

Centerfielder Parker Meadows is emerging as a triple-threat player at this premium position. Plus bat, glove, and base running paint the picture of the right guy for the job. But Meadows is also a prime candidate for the more playing time, less potency tradeoff tag as his workload could double. Parker and third baseman Jace Jung will get another dose of on-the-job training, as will backup catcher Dillon Dingler. There will continue to be weak spots in the Tigers lineup that keep their production similar to 2024’s with a small negative effect on their splits against righties. Snagging Alex Bregman could be the boon Detroit is looking for. Otherwise, AJ Hinch has more than enough levers to pull again this season. Will his hand stay hot along the way?

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Kansas City Royals 2025 Win Total: Open 83.5, Now 82.5

2024 Result: Over 74 (86-76 / Pythag: 91)

Kansas City’s postseason drought finally came to an end after eight seasons without a winning record. An 86-76 mark earned a Wild Card berth and the role of underdog against the Baltimore Orioles, who they swept before falling to the eventual AL Pennant winner New York. Ironically, the only player more worthy of the AL MVP than shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. was the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. Witt and a rotation that greatly exceeded expectation pushed the club’s limits and now sets them up for a run at the AL Central crown. Can the Royals hold these recent gains and capture some of last year’s 5 “lost” pythag wins? If so, the market doesn’t seem ready to believe it quite yet.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• C Estevez (RP – RHP)
• J India (2B)

Subtractions:

• B Singer (SP – RHP)
• P DeJong (INF)
• G Hampson (INF)
• W Smith (RP – LHP)
• A Frazier (UTL)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 78 – 84

— Rotation —

We weren’t high enough. When it came to the rotation turnaround, getting “closer to league average” was an understatement. Kansas City’s starting pitchers went from a bottom five group in 2023 to one of the best in 2024. They ranked second in innings pitched (911.0), ERA (3.55), and WAR (16.7) – a far cry from the lackluster rankings a year prior. In simple terms, the rotation cut its ERA by over a run and-a-half and tacked on enough innings to average an additional three-quarters of an inning more per start. Both quantity and quality were greatly improved.

Headlining this group was former Ranger Cole Ragans, who was valued at 4.9 WAR with a 3.14 ERA and 2.99 FIP/3.46 xFIP across 186.1 innings. The left-hander found himself pushed to Texas’s bullpen early in 2023 before the Royals traded reliever Aroldis Chapman for him. It was a good deal for both sides as the Rangers went on to win the World Series while Kansas City implemented him directly into their rotation. The results were instantaneously positive (2.64 ERA in 12 starts) then carried forth over a full 32-start campaign. Cole’s full menu of pitches were live, resulting in steps forward in strikeout rate (29.3%), swinging strike rate (14.4%), and walks (8.8%). His outlook is shaded toward the mid-3.00s with similar volume – good enough to push for the 4-WAR plateau again.

Perhaps the bigger revelation for the Kansas City rotation came from unlocking another former reliever, Seth Lugo. San Diego was the first club to throw Lugo into a starting pitching role after leaving the Mets. Things went even better in his second season as a starter. ERA reduced by more than a half run and average length of start extended to 6.26 innings, nearly two more outs per start over 2023. Seth’s relative lack of strikeouts (21.7%) and stingy home run rate (0.7 HR/9) led to a 3.83 xFIP in contrast to 3.00 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Skepticism of that divide as well as the likelihood of another 200+ inning season leads to upper-3.00s projections and losing 1-2 wins of value. I would not count on a sudden demise by any means.

In a Position Of Strength

One guy who easily gets lost in the accolades for Ragans and Lugo is 33-year-old Michael Wacha. The longtime Cardinal enters his thirteenth MLB season with a contract extension through at least 2027. Stocking the shelves with broad arsenal veterans who pitch to contact seems to be Kansas City’s approach aside from Cole Ragans. Much like Seth Lugo, however, his 2025 outlook tends towards the 4.14 xFIP component to his 3.35 ERA and 3.65 FIP. xFIP and SIERA measurements don’t particularly care for a lack of strikeouts, even with Wacha’s solid 32.2% hard hit rate.

Leaning toward the under in Michael Wacha’s net innings change from 2023 is the right way to go. 166.2 is his highest tally since 2015 due to a variety of IL stints over the years. This underlines the importance of the Royals’ pitching depth that includes the re-signed Michael Lorenzen – another reformed reliever in the rotation. Lorenzen, Alec Marsh, and Kris Bubic fit the mold of 4.00+ contact pitchers who still battle command issues enough to where they’re not in the same conversation as K.C.’s other starters. Needless to say, manager Matt Quatraro has options.

The Ragans/Lugo/Wacha trio was so good that the Royals dealt from their rotation strength to acquire former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India from the Reds. Slider/sinker contact pitcher Brady Singer was flipped to the Reds after three straight 150+ IP seasons. Last year’s 32-start campaign marked a solid rebound after being hit hard and often in 2023. Will this group be as superb as they were last year? Probably not. Kansas City’s top three starters set very high bars and the pool of back end arms is deep, pointing to a 3-4 win step back with a solid floor that should keep the rotation in the top ten.

— Bullpen —

We weren’t overly impressed by the Royals bullpen going into the 2024 season. They lacked true high-leverage hammers to keep the late game in check – until the trade deadline, that is. James McArthur and Carlos Hernandez had too many flaws to trust as reliable 8th and 9th inning guys, leading the bullpen to an anemic 19.0% strikeout rate and 22nd-ranked WAR in the first half of the season. Then general manager JJ Picollo did something about it. He traded for Oakland’s Lucas Erceg and Washington’s Hunter Harvey at the deadline and the results were immediate. The bullpen’s K rate popped by 4.6% in the second half to help produce the MLB’s 11th-highest WAR in that period.

Left-hander Lucas Erceg refined his game after a decent 2023 MLB debut, developing a wicked slider while tacking more velo onto his four- and two-seam fastballs. Hunter Harvey enters the last season of team control after a bumpier 2024 season that landed him on the trading block. Kansas City would love nothing more than to capture a mid-3.00s season benefitting from some BABIP regression. Joining these two strikeout artists is Carlos Estevez, who spent the second half in Philadelphia. Last year’s 2.45 ERA marks a career best, as did his .229 BABIP – a reason why Estevez’ projections are more in the range of the corresponding 4.09 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. If anything, Carlos beefs up the front end and adds veteran high-leverage depth.

The waters get murkier from there though. Not quite enough to completely submarine the upward trajectory the bullpen found last summer. Veterans John Schreiber and Chris Stratton have struggled with walks in recent seasons. Angel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch thrive when they keep the ball on the ground, which pairs well with the Bobby Witt Jr.-led infield behind them. I hate to gloss over this bullpen too quickly given their work-in-progress status and being connected to a division-contenting team. That said, our early outlook for the Royals’ relief group is similar to last year but with more consistency throughout the season.

— Position Players —

The common theme underlying the 2025 Kansas City Royals is stability. Whether or not that is good enough to move the needle has yet to play out. The lone meaningful exception mentioned earlier is their trade with Cincinnati for second baseman/designated hitter Jonathan India. He is a disciplined, get on base kind of hitter the Royals need. For reference, K.C.’s 19th-best OBP was about 50 points below India’s. He stacks up well against former role players like Garrett Hampson and Paul DeJong, though credit Hampson for his strong fielding skills. Point being, Jonathan India is a welcome infusion to an otherwise stale lineup.

What isn’t stale in the Royals’ position player corps is one of the most exciting players in MLB: Bobby Witt Jr. The 24-year-old shortstop phenom achieved elite status with offensive numbers up there with names like Ohtani, Soto, and Judge. Plus he plays a wicked shortstop. It’s worth a few seconds to list his 2024 accolades and rank among all qualified hitters:

• .322 AVG (1st)
• 10.4 WAR (2nd)
• 125 R (3rd)
• .588 SLG (3rd)
• 168 wRC+ (5th)
• .389 OBP (6th)
• 709 PA (6th)
• 109 RBI (7th)
• 31 SB (13th)
• 15.0% K rate (15th)
• 32 HR (17th)

To say that Witt was a spark in a dimly-lit lineup is an understatement. But look at the retuning characters and only Salvador Perez and maybe Vinnie Pasquantino pop out as offensive threats. Those two plus Dairon Blanco in spot duty were about the only ones to effectively hit lefties – making Jonathan India an even more important addition to backfill against this weakness and help mitigate Witt’s regression in this regard. It is tough to project Bobby for another 10+ WAR season, especially on the heels of a .354 BABIP. Although 6, 7, or even 8 WAR is well within his skillset and age profile.

An Open Invitation To Participate

Perez – who I always think is about 5 years older than he actually is – rebounded nicely after a tough 2023 season. Maybe a 5% decline is in store for the 34-year-old who got a ton of play working as catcher, first baseman, and designated hitter. I’m interested to see how Quatraro juggles his bat-first guys at DH with India now in the mix. Salvador is not overly weak to right-handers and is surrounded by multiple platoon-only types. Less time spent in the crouch is probably much appreciated by the trusty veteran.

High expectations greet Vinnie Pasquantino after losing a month to a broken thumb; one year following a 2023 campaign which was cut in half by a shoulder injury. His rookie slash line of .295/.383/.450 is tough to match over a full season, though a 15-20% bump is well within his power-hitter profile. Next door at second base is Michael Massey, who may benefit from a platoon timeshare with Jonathan India. Especially if he has topped out with a league-average bat. Another ripple effect of the India trade is keeping Maikel Garcia at third base where he defends much better than he does at second.

The need to platoon a good portion of the Kansas City lineup is front and center in the outfield. MJ Melendez and Kyle Isbel have proven to be liabilities against southpaw pitching, giving right-handed hitters Dairon Blanco and Nelson Velazquez opportunities to contribute. Both were brutal against right-handers though. This foursome takes double the roster space to effectively field two positions. But, if implemented properly, can yield a net positive for the offense. That’s a mighty big if considering these four hitters haven’t cracked the league-average mark for their careers. As Spring Training approaches, we’re looking at similar overall offensive figures with a small adjustment down for the Royals’ splits against right-handed pitching.

Sifting Through the Roster

As if the outfield situation didn’t sound bleak enough, consider its collective defense. Garrett Hampson and Tommy Pham played in the Royals outfield for 592 combined innings. In that relatively short timespan, their fielding value far exceeded the others’ contributions with the exception of Kyle Isbel. That includes Hunter Renfroe, who could pass as a DH-type of corner outfielder if he was actually hitting. The past two seasons are major disappointments compared to his big years of 2021-2022. I see calls for a 10% improvement as well as for more of the same. I’m in the latter camp considering Renfroe’s hard contact rates have been off 4-5% from those peak seasons.

Hiding MJ Melendez in the outfield has resulted in a small defensive gain compared to his rookie season behind the plate. The maturing Freddie Fermin has made that possible with impressive defensive grades and a serviceable bat. Although I’ll push back against calling Fermin a dud, he enters the season with higher expectations than where he left off in 2024. His workload expanded and power dissipated. Hard contact dropped by 8.8% and slugging fell from .461 to .366. The Royals can deal with a close-to-average bat with his defense but another step down hurts his chances and the team’s push for more offense in 2025. Freddie might regress a touch defensively but the bigger fielding loss will occur in the outfield.

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Minnesota Twins 2025 Win Total: Open 82.5, Now 84

2024 Result: Under 86 (82-80 / Pythag: 82)

Minnesota’s see-saw performance in the AL Central over the past decade led the club to a disappointing fourth place finish above the record-setting Chicago White Sox. Granted, they only dropped 5 wins from their 87-75 record in the 2023 division title season. In full disclosure, we had the Twins pegged around 90 wins – a far cry from the actual result falling barely above .500. Expectations have reset to around 84 wins, down from 86 a year ago. Is this a steal or are there too many what ifs? An impending sale of the franchise is holding payroll hostage, so making do with what you’ve got is the way it’s gonna be in 2025.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• H Bader (CF)
• D Coulombe (RP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• C Santana (1B)
• M Kepler (OF)
• K Farmer (INF)
• J Staumont (RP – RHP)
• C Thielbar (RP – LHP)
• M Margot (OF)
• S Okert (RP – LHP)
• J Jackson (RP – RHP)
• A Kiriloff (1B/OF)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 78 – 91

— Position Players —

Looking back at season as a whole, there are more positive takeaways from Minnesota’s position player group than one would think. We expected a small dip in offense after two good years in a row. To the contrary, the lineup held firm. For the first time since 2019, the Twins actually hit left-handed pitching quite well to complement their perennial strength against righties. Much of this credit is due to household names Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, though ageless wonder Carlos Santana came through mightily with a .286/.356/.578 line against lefties. But the club’s 12-27 finish kept them out of the playoffs and raised a lot of questions for the offseason.

It is hard to pinpoint exactly what caused the Twins’ collapse in a surprisingly competitive AL Central race. Injuries are part of it. Correa’s monster season was derailed for nearly two months beginning in late July. Buxton missed about a month starting in mid-August due to a hip injury while left-handed outfielder Max Kepler essentially missed the month of September with a knee issue. In fact, Correa and Buxton combined for just 188 games played last season. Don’t expect a dramatic change in this phenomenon of lost games for these key cogs though. Byron shouldn’t be handicapped for more than 100 games in a season while Carlos’ ongoing plantar fasciitis in both feet should cap expectations around 130 games – a benchmark set in each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

MIN Offensive Performance, by Period (2024)

	W/L Record	Slash Line	wRC+	HR/PA	BB%	K%	BABIP
Thru August 17	70-53	.252/.322/.429	114	3.3%	7.9%	21.2%	.293
August 18 Onward	12-27	.228/.292/.354	84	2.1%	7.1%	21.8%	.276
Season	82-80	.246/.315/.411	107	3.0%	7.7%	21.3%	.289

In Need Of Love From the Gloves

We also didn’t foresee the fielding dropoff that took the Twins into negative territory across multiple rating systems for the first time since 2019. Again, injuries certainly played their part. They accentuated the pain when super utility player Willi Castro had a rough time filling in at shortstop for the injured Carlos Correa. Second base was a minor hole with Edouard Julien and Kyle Farmer but the biggest dearth of fielding clouded Austin Martin’s rookie season. The speedy outfielder was a massive liability in both center and left fields, leaving questions about how much improvement is in store as he further develops.

One of the Twins’ few offseason moves was signing glove-first outfielder Harrison Bader. The 30-year-old is a plus defender across the outfield at the expense of having a sub-.300 OBP. Another knock is his prolific injury history that did not come home to roost with the Mets last year. Ideally, Bader provides an overlap with Byron Buxton in center field while resting or on the IL. While all is calm with the roster, Bader and Martin can platoon with left-handed corners Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach in the absence of Max Kepler.

You can just about guarantee that switch-hitting Willi Castro will be a regular on manager Rocco Baldelli’s lineup card. Problem is, Castro also graded out poorly in the outfield. A rebound to his typical form leverages his utility and speed on the bases even further – but there’s no guarantee of that. Bader’s inclusion as a premium fielder helps Castro’s case for filling the DH spot more often. Aging, injuries, and a general lack of new blood should keep Minnesota’s aggregate defense on similar footing than 2024. Don’t underestimate the fielding value that Carlos Santana provided at first base.

Working Around Constraints

The Twins’ small market payroll is frozen this winter as ownership explores a sale of the team. A handful of players like Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, and Kyle Farmer left in free agency without corresponding transactions to bring in new blood. Reloading the roster becomes a matter of elevating minor leaguers into these roles. If there’s any solace to take in these departures, it’s the relatively low production from all but one of them. Kepler, Margot, and Farmer combined for 1.3 WAR primarily due to an aggregate -15% at the plate. Carlos Santana leaves the biggest shoes to fill from strong defense and stable bat (.238/.328/.420) valued at 3.0 WAR.

This is a predominantly homegrown starting lineup with Willi Castro and Carlos Correa being the prime exceptions. Another is backup catcher Christian Vazquez who is in the final season of a three-year deal after leaving Boston. Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers are graded as a mid-pack tandem that offers more defensive value than offensive. Nothing wrong with that…there’s a few teams that do neither well. Jeffers tilts the balance towards the bat; Vazquez goes in the other direction with a touch of offensive upside possible. There have been rumors of a Christian Vasquez trade with nothing concrete as of publishing.

Max Kepler became expendable with fellow left-handed hitters Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner in the mix. Except nobody is convinced that Wallner is actually a +40% bat. How about that monster 34.5% career strikeout rate? That’s legit, as is the brutality with which he attacks the baseball. Of the two big boys in the corners, Larnach has better plate discipline to couple with considerable power. Even though we have factored in steep regression from Wallner, increased playing time to replace Kepler’s 2024 production is enough of a net positive to soak up any small dropoff by Larnach. Keep an eye on outfield prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez – another lefty who could get the call at some point this season. Walks, strikeouts, power, and speed make for an interesting combination with the kid.

Finding Balance

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are both generally immune to handedness splits weaknesses. But their workloads are capped due to injury risk. Plus they are set to regress after posting 30-point BABIP surpluses last year. Yet 5-7 wins for the pair is far from an unreasonable expectation given their long track records and skillsets. Now the question is whether there’s enough margin for improvement elsewhere in the infield.

Corner infielder Jose Miranda has been a stable hitter in his two healthy seasons, providing confidence for another +10% or better output. There is room for improvement between presumptive third baseman Royce Lewis – assuming he stays healthy – and second baseman Edouard Julien, who predictably had a rough fall from his monster rookie season propped up by a .371 BABIP. The pendulum should swing the other way to find balance between Julien’s years one and two.

The 2025 season’s wild card in the Twin Cities is shortstop prospect Brooks Lee. After his brief debut last summer, the 24-year-old has plenty of room for improvement in an expanded role. The switch-hitter is pegged for more playing time at second base while Carlos Correa holds down short, though Lee has the fielding skills to displace Willi Castro as the infield utility man. To say that the Twins desperately need Brooks to step up and contribute might be an overstatement. However, reaching last year’s bar will rely on the young crop of talent like Lee, Lewis, and Julien establishing themselves as reliable bats in the Minnesota lineup.

— Rotation —

Although the starting pitcher group met expectations for a several-win slide, the ultimate result was neither a liability nor noteworthy. It is good enough to stick with the theme of running it back and hoping for the best. Without spending any money of consequence the Twins will roll with solid in-house options top to bottom. Proven veteran Pablo Lopez is expected to shave a half-run of ERA referencing his baseline and FIP/xFIP. But that positive regression must be supported by better home run avoidance and recapturing the value of his secondary pitches.

Rotation pillars Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober stand as a 5-6 WAR duo unless Ryan’s shoulder issue persists into the spring. Early indications point to him being ready for Opening Day – a big relief for the club. Both take care of business with plus command while missing enough bats to earn mid-3.00+ projections. It’s their workload expectations that keep them solidly behind Pablo as ace. Nonetheless, this healthy trio is worth 9 wins as they amass 90 starts.

Pitchers do get hurt though, emphasizing the importance of depth. Minnesota blurs the line between their fourth and fifth starters and depth pieces. Simeon Woods Richardson finally hung around long enough make 28 starts in 2024 but faded down the stretch. The next step for the 24-year-old righty is reliably making it through 5 innings while fighting off a 4.55 xFIP. Unfortunately, Chris Paddack’s long injury history doesn’t provide a ton of confidence in reaching a 20-start, 100-inning target with 4.00 effectiveness. Yet these modest expectations still arrive at 2 wins of value.

More Arms Needed

David Festa has potential for improvement after his debut resulted in a 4.90 ERA and 3.76 FIP/3.58 xFIP. Zebby Matthews’ filthy slider offers some optimism for the ground ball pitcher to stick around the 4.00 mark in limited duty. But things get murkier dipping down to the up-and-down Louie Varland. That relegates him to an average-value producer if called in to start 5-10 games again.

Volatility is the underlying theme behind the Twins’ rotation beyond the top three. The 70 or so starts that the remaining group of Woods Richardson, Paddack, Festa, etc. need to absorb are arguably the most pivotal ones. Aggregating them as a low-4.00s collective equates to just enough value to maintain status quo from 2024 with a win or so of upside. The divide between proven and unproven starters makes the rotation’s projections shakier than Rocco Baldelli would like.

— Bullpen —

Way back in late October, Steve Adams of MLBTradeRumors.com said to “expect more dart throws to fortify a relief corps that was beleaguered by injuries in 2024.” Yet as of early February, this is largely the same cast of characters sans poorer performers Josh Staumont, Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, and Jay Jackson. As for 2025, a healthy dose of banking on bouncebacks offers upside in addition to culling those weak links.

Prime rebound candidate closer Jhoan Duran exhibited some concerning characteristics in 2024 with the caveat that an early-season oblique injury held him back. A healthy Duran is a nasty Duran. His oppressive fastball/splitter pair coupled with a lock-you-up curve – when healthy – delivers sub-3.00 numbers over 60+ innings. Keep an eye on him in Spring Training to better gauge his reversion to dominance. This bullpen is anything but a one-man band though:

• Griffin Jax (R) – Workhorse with an elite slider, though it’s right to be skeptical of his strikeout/whiff bump in 2024
• Cole Sands (R) – On his way to establishing a mid-3.00s baseline in the 60+ IP camp
• Brock Stewart (R) – Will be pushed after another injury-shortened campaign; solid lower-3.00s target that firms up if slider command improves

Just Don’t Mess It Up!

This potent front four keeps the Twins bullpen in the 4-5 win range without stretching their projections too far. The space where Jorge Alcala, Michael Tonkin, and free agent acquisition Danny Coulombe exist is the mid-to-upper 3.00s region predicated more on ground ball contact. That’s fairly customary for bulk relievers who will carry a big load as starters like Woods Richardson, Paddack, and Festa try to stretch out through the 2025 season. Louie Varland-types with early-season minor league success have a role to play here as well.

And don’t forget about Justin Topa who missed all but the very end of 2024 due to a torn patellar tendon. The 33-year-old’s lone full season was a quintessential ground baller masterclass with Seattle. Look for him to jump back in the saddle and bolster this sturdy relief unit. Bringing Coulombe back to town after a couple seasons in Baltimore partially addresses Minnesota’s lack of left-handed relievers. In-house option Kody Funderburk is a solid back end candidate but might not be able to shoulder 70+ outings again. Addition by subtraction only goes so far with southpaws Okert and Thielbar taking their 5.00+ ERAs elsewhere. Duly noting their lefty shortfall, we have confidence with this being a top five group in 2025 with a Jhoan Duran resurgence.

WAGER: Twins Over 83.5 Wins

Okay, we bit on these guys improving their win-loss record knowing there are clear downsides. For one, injury risk plagues the lineup. Questions about their #4 & #5 starters aren’t totally answered. That built-in uncertainty is why our wide win total rangedips down to the upper 70s – a loss against this position. Not everything needs to be in alignment for the Twins to reach the mid-80s. That’s the plan, anyways.

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Chicago White Sox 2025 Win Total: Open 51.5, Now 53

2024 Result: Under 63 (41-121 / Pythag: 48)

“Historically bad” is the term thrown around to describe the 2024 Chicago White Sox. A 41-121 record sealed their fate as the worst team in modern history; one that was outscored 507-813 and started the season with only 3 wins in the first 25 games. Yet they still managed to draw more attendance than two other American League clubs? God bless those season ticket holders! Chicago’s farm system is reportedly very strong but not quite ready to dramatically impact the club in 2025. So what should we expect in this bridge year with first-time manager Will Venable at the helm?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J Rojas (INF)
• M Perez (SP – LHP)
• C Boozer (RP – LHP)
• B Wilson (RP – RHP)
• M Thaiss (C)
• K Teel (C)
• M Tauchman (OF)
• A Slater (OF)

Subtractions:

• G Crochet (SP – LHP)
• G Sheets (OF/1B)
• C Flexen (SP – RHP)
• M Soroka (SP – RHP)
• Y Moncada (3B)
• M Clevinger (SP – RHP)
• N Senzel (3B/OF)
• M Maldonado (C)
• N Lopez (INF)

BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 55 – 63

— Rotation —

Wading through all of the White Sox’ negatives reveals a couple rays of light from the rotation. Those bright spots are, of course, gone from the 2025 roster. Garrett Crochet leads the pack of prime departures after his 32-start rotation debut that produced 4.7 WAR. That represents just over half of the entire starting pitching group’s value. Erick Fedde was dealt to the Cardinals at the trade deadline with 21 starts worth 2.6 WAR, then Chris Flexen and his 1.3 WAR was left to walk in free agency.

The returns for Erick Fedde included Miguel Vargas from the Dodgers plus several prospects. Likewise, Boston sent (almost) MLB-ready catcher prospect Kyle Teel and several others back for Garrett Crochet. Ergo, the seemingly-perpetual restocking of the farm system’s shelves continues. So you’ll be hard pressed to find a roster unit that better exemplifies blank slate than the White Sox’ rotation. In fact, Jonathan Cannon is the only remaining starter with 100+ innings (115.1) with the Crochet/Fedde/Flexen trio elsewhere.

Offseason additions are understandably limited given the franchise’s position. Presumed to be their Opening Day starter, 33-year-old left-hander Martin Perez is a known quantity in the MLB. Put his resurgent 2022 season aside and focus on the ground ball pitcher’s last couple years bouncing around Texas, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. 25 starts at a mid-4.00 level? Sounds about right. Additionally, former Brewer Bryce Wilson gets another chance for rotation work also as a mid-4.00 pitcher with experience. Both newcomers put the ball in play – a dangerous proposition given the shaky defense behind them. From an organizational perspective, they’re here to eat innings and buy time for a big bubble of pitching prospects to mature.

Chicago’s Crop of Starting Pitcher Hopefuls:

• Jonathan Cannon (24) – Pitch-to-contact type who demonstrated his innings-eating capability, going 6+ innings in 11 of 21 starts in his MLB debut season.
• Davis Martin (28) – Martin hasn’t done much in his previous two bites at the MLB apple but boasts a deep repertoire featuring a promising slider/changeup combo.
• Sean Burke (25) – Shoulder inflammation set back Burke’s progress and may have jeopardized his role as a starting pitcher; his fastball/slider combo has stood out from the other secondaries.
• Drew Thorpe (24) – This spring could foretell whether Thorpe’s command, cutter, and changeup are enough to offset his lack of strikeout ability.
• Nick Nastrini (25) – Nastrini’s rough MLB debut on the heels of command issues in the minors may have relegated him to relief duty if other young arms make stronger impressions.
• Jairo Iriarte (23) – The MLB-Top 100 prospect has plenty of work to do to improve his command before making his mark in the majors; features quality over quantity in a three-pitch mix.
• Noah Schultz (21) – Scouts have concerns with how hittable Noah’s fastball has been in the minors, yet there are high hopes for the kid’s fastball/slider combo.

White Sox draft picks Jonathan Cannon, David Martin, and Sean Burke are currently in line to make the Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, Drew Thorpe is working through elbow issues and his arrival to Spring Training will be delayed. Thorpe is the prized return in last spring’s Dylan Cease trade and should be the next man up for the rotation. The roulette wheel nature of Chicago’s starting pitcher group makes it challenging to accurately project. Yet here we are with a grizzled veteran leading a group of inexperienced arms into a season with low expectations. Fire away, boys! Knock 2-4 wins off of 2024’s value after losing three solid performers.

— Bullpen —

Maybe there is some debate over just how bad this bullpen will be in 2025. It’s safe to say that its outlook is rough enough, then Dan Szymborski’s preview labeled them the “worst unit that ZIPS has ever projected.” Last season’s group featured 17 pitchers with 10 or more relief appearances – a testament to the rotation’s failure to eat innings as well as the caliber of the personnel. Big picture: 4.73 ERA over 638.2 innings valued at 0.6 WAR. That ranks 28th above Colorado and Toronto.

The 2025 bullpen is without three key members. Michael Soroka signed a $9M deal with Washington after picking his career up off the mat in Chicago. He started the season in the rotation then moved to a relief role where he thrived. 10 of Soroka’s 16 appearances went 2+ innings and his ERA dropped from 6.39 as a starter to 2.75 in relief. Not much disagreement from his 2.75 FIP/3.26 xFIP either. The former promising arm with the Braves gets another shot to become a rotation regular in D.C.

Two other notables were traded last summer as valuable players with another year of team control remaining. Philadelphia’s Tanner Banks had a respectable 26.8% strikeout rate over 48.0 innings with the White Sox. Michael Kopech is the bigger name that was moved in a 3-team deal between the Dodgers and Cardinals. Electric stuff mixed with shaky command is best suited in a better organization. As fate would have it, Kopech has a World Series ring in part due to him reaching lights-out status in L.A. He gave up 1 run in just 3 of his 24 appearances with the Dodgers, saving 6 games in as many opportunities. Whiffs up, strikeouts up, walks down. That’s how it’s done.

Arms On Call

What remains is a handful of 4.00 ERA guys with some upside and a bounty of those who meet the literal definition of replacement level. Waiver claims, Rule 5 draftees, and AAA starting pitchers will surely get tapped for innings. The projected front end group are the ones they need more from to keep the entire bullpen out of the dumpster. Justin Anderson could be a positive story after resurrecting his MLB career last year. Frasier Ellard debuted nicely to a 3.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP/3.95 xFIP. Prelander Berroa has that throws hard with suspect control in him. Gus Varland’s fastball played well with good command. Our big picture outlook before Spring Training: replacement level value due to another season of heavy usage.

— Position Players —

“Epically terrible” is one way to characterize the Sox’ position player performance. Not only was their -6.3 WAR by far the worst of the 2024 season, it stands as the lowest value since the 1979 Oakland Athletics’ -9.7. Chicago’s 507 runs scored fell almost 100 short of the Rays’ second-worst tally. All three slash line components (.221/.278/.340) as well as their 133 home runs also ranked last. It only gets better from here, right?

Around the Horn

Two of the club’s more productive players – relative to the rest of the team, not the entire league – are gone from the 2025 roster. Shortstop Paul DeJong was dealt to the Royals last summer; middle infielder Nicky Lopez left in free agency. Unheralded rookie Brooks Baldwin got his feet wet before a wrist injury cut his September short. He’s expected to share the middle with Lenyn Sosa, another young infielder who got a healthy dose of MLB playing time in 2024. Fortunately, projections give them a decent chance of matching the departed veterans’ value. Baldwin’s upside is primarily in the field; Sosa has more power to unlock. Plus top shortstop prospect Colson Montgomery will join the club at some point.

First baseman Andrew Vaughn enters his fifth MLB campaign as one the White Sox’ best hopes for turning around the offense. First things first – Vaughn needs to curb his steady decline since the 2022 season. Hard contact and BABIP have stepped down while strikeout rate ticks up. I’m not necessarily a buyer in an Andrew Vaughn resurgence per se, though a turnaround of this downward trajectory sounds reasonable. New blood at third base was a must after the position group turned in a 50 wRC+ and bottom-of-the-barrel fielding grades. Josh Rojas provides a spark with solid defense and a more productive bat than what Chicago had there last year. Keep an eye on him recapturing any semblance of production against southpaws.

If not, Rojas can be platooned with 25-year-old right-hander Miguel Vargas, a rebound candidate who absolutely struggled after his trade from the Dodgers last July. Between that and the small sample .177 BABIP, a turn for the better is a fair outlook. Is Vargas the below-average hitter we’ve seen to date or will he meet a couple projections’ league-average mark in 2025?

Something has to give behind the plate though. League-worst offense and bottom-five defensive numbers don’t cut the mustard. New backup Matt Thaiss shouldn’t be any worse defensively than Martin Maldonado’s swan song, plus he’s 50-60% better with the bat. And it may be a matter of time before top catching prospect Kyle Teel takes playing time from Korey Lee if he can’t figure out how to hit MLB pitching. Defensive improvements primarily at catcher and third base should lead an infield uptick over last season. Colson Montgomery is also a good defender who could add value once called up.

Down But Not Out

It will be tough to watch centerfielder Luis Robert Jr. struggle and/or be sidelined by injuries again – especially after that dynamic 2023 season where he smacked 38 home runs, slugged .542, and saved a bunch of runs defensively. 2025 projects as a strong rebound year both offensively and defensively, leading to summertime trade talks after preseason attempts failed to connect. Therein lies the trouble. If Robert is healthy and performing well, he inflates Chicago’s first-half numbers and leaves behind a vacancy at a position tough to backfill.

34-year-old Mike Tauchman migrates to the south side after his services were no longer needed by the Cubs. He’s a solid one-year solution to replace Gavin Sheets and Corey Julks in a corner outfield spot. A +5-10% bat outweighs what those guys brought to the table and absorbs Tommy Pham’s 2024 contribution. Tauchman doesn’t need platoon help and gets on base frequently with a career 12.9% walk rate. Andrew Benintendi in the other corner isn’t nearly as good defensively as he once was, plus he could use a short-side partner like the newly-acquired Austin Slater. The Benintendi/Slater pairing should pan out around league average by playing to their strengths. A lot can go wrong to undermine our 7-10% positive offensive adjustment, especially if Chicago sells a rebounding player or two at the deadline.

WAGER: White Sox Over 53 Wins

This is a catch a falling knife scenario where we aren’t even getting the best number. Books opened Chicago’s win total at 49.5 and 51.5 wins, but here we are a couple months later with pricey 51.5s and higher. Acquisitions have been modest but appear to be fruitful compared to what they replace. Once you adjust for their 7 “lost” pythag wins and the impact of incoming manager Will Venable, the baseline gets ratcheted up. Venable could be the antidote to Pedro Grifol’s poisonous managerial tenure as a respected up-and-coming leader in the baseball world. There are both quantitative and qualitative reasons for our win total range covering 55 to 63 wins, creating a reasonable floor to cover this win total position.

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2025 AL Central Projected Standings

1. Minnesota Twins (86-76)
2. Detroit Tigers (83-79)
3. Kansas City Royals (81-81)
4. Cleveland Guardians (80-82)
5. Chicago White Sox (58-104)

Pitchers and Catchers Report

That’s the first of the BetCrushers’ 2025 Division Preview series…just in time for Spring Training! The other five will drop as camp rolls on, so be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on X, or subscribe below for email notifications: