Last year I asked whether there were enough cracks in L.A.’s armor to unseat them from the NL West throne. The answer was a resounding “no”. But things quickly went downhill once the postseason rolled around. Ironically, the Dodgers’ early exit came at the hands of no other than the Arizona Diamondbacks. A D-backs squad that was clearly on a mission in the playoffs all the way to the bitter end against the eventual World Series Champions Texas Rangers. While there was no shame in Arizona’s game, the Giants’ backslide paled in comparison to the Padres’ failure to launch from the get-go. Chalk that up as a letdown marking our lone futures blemish of the season. I guess it’s better to take the L early than wait until September, eh? Time to dive in and see what’s in store for the 2024 NL West…

The blood, sweat, and tears continue with the BetCrushers’ 5th Annual Divisional Previews & Futures outlook for the 2024 MLB season. As always, we appreciate your support! Are they too much? Maybe. But the ends continue to justify the means, and we hope you’re able to make a few bucks along the way. (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2023 NL Pennant Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks

2023 Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 NL West Final Standings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
3. San Diego Padres (82-80)
4. San Francisco Giants (79-83)
5. Colorado Rockies (59-103)

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Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Win Total: Open 94.5, Now 103.5

2023 Result: Over 96.5 (100-62 / Pythag: 100)

Despite shaving 11 wins from their 2022 season performance, the Los Angeles Dodgers racked up triple-digit wins for the fourth straight (162-game) season. Those 100 wins sunk both of my approaches to the NL West futures markets. Play L.A. under 97 wins? Nope. Take the Padres at +140 to win the division? That’s what I did, and that’s how I failed. When it comes to 2024, a flurry of activity from Andrew Friedman and the front office shot their win total through the roof from a modest 94.5 to a whopping 103.5. The Dodger faithful must be thrilled with this very productive offseason. But is it enough to get them over the postseason hump though?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• S Ohtani (DH)
• T Glasnow (SP – RHP)
• M Margot (OF)
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP – RHP)
• T Hernandez (OF)
• J Paxton (SP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• J Heyward (OF)
• JD Martinez (DH)
• J Urias (SP – LHP)
• S Miller (RP – RHP)
• L Lynn (SP – RHP)
• A Rosario (INF)
• D Peralta (OF)
• E Hernandez (INF)
• A Reyes (RP – RHP)
• V Gonzalez (RP – LHP)
• R Pepiot (SP – RHP)
• M Busch (INF)
• Y Almonte (RP – RHP)
• C Ferguson (RP – LHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 95 – 104

— Position Players —

Being saddled with through the roof expectations can be a compelling motivational factor. As can being oh so close. Falling to a division rival in the postseason. Being outdone by the Atlanta Braves in multiple offensive categories. Why get mad when you can shove in even more chips during the offseason? Exhibit A is replacing JD Martinez with the world’s most wanted baseball player, Shohei Ohtani. Whether he would admit it or not, The Man played like 2023 was a contract year, putting up numbers much like his 2021 MLB breakout season. Except for one thing: strikeouts. Shohei jacked up all of his slash line numbers by striking out 46 less times than in his MVP campaign.

At least for this season, Ohtani’s only job is to hit. That makes a year-over-year comparison a lot easier to make. L.A.’s baseline for the DH spot is substantial: top-five 2.7 WAR, 130 wRC+, and .529 slugging as JD Martinez carried the lion’s share of the production (109 games). Granted, JD was sidelined by injury enough to share the spot with quality hitters Max Muncy and Will Smith. As Ms. JJ often reminds me, getting old is not for sissies. A healthy Ohtani is a 4-win DH – and that’s with discounting his 2024 numbers back to a “more modest” 2021-2022 baseline.

Exhibit B is signing former Blue Jay and Mariner Teoscar Hernandez to fill the hole in left field. This was a rare position – shortstop being the other – that rated below average offensively for the Dodgers. David Peralta and Chris Taylor fielded the spot well but represented a middling .250/.306/.417 line ripe for improvement. Ironically, projections put Teoscar in the same ballpark as that combo worth around 2 WAR. This acquisition should be thought of as a replace Peralta, free up Taylor two-for-one situation. It may not add value to the left field position as much as it makes the roster that much more efficient.

An Infield Full of Stars

Dave Roberts has a diamond full of All-Star players brought in from the outside as well as those groomed from L.A.’s superb farm system. And he doesn’t hesitate to let the cream of the crop put in work. Elite first baseman Freddie Freeman appeared in 161 games with a team-high 730 plate appearances – third-most in the MLB. Mookie Betts was up there too with 693 plate appearances. It’s no wonder that they combined for a massive 16.2 WAR. To put this excellence into context, the Giants entire position player corps graded out at 15.9 WAR.

Making Mookie Betts the everyday second baseman is logical if Roberts wants to help prolong the 31-year-old’s durability. He passed the test last year with an impressive 6 runs saved in 70 games at second base. But the question facing all players coming off of monster seasons is whether they can do it again. Freeman delivered 7+ WAR in both seasons with L.A. – an amazing feat considering that value is nearly all offensively driven as a first baseman. Past performance says to expect a floor at 4 wins and plus-40% productivity at the plate. Betts, on the other hand, provides great defensive value to go with a plus-40% bat. That’s why his baseline is another win higher than Freeman’s. We know how great this lefty-righty duo is. It becomes a matter of staying healthy to produce a massive 9-12 WAR in 2024.

Freeman’s arrival in 2022 stirred up the infield a bit by pushing former first baseman Max Muncy across the diamond to third. Unfortunately, it’s been a disappointment for the guy ever since. You can rationalize having a defensive liability at the hot corner with a guy who slashes .250/.370/.500. Since Muncy flipped sides of the diamond, however, his lower baseline at the plate has created a suboptimal situation at third.

M Muncy Offensive Attributes (2018 – 2023)

	Slash Line	wRC+	BB%	K%	BABIP
2018-2021	.246/.371/.520	138	15.2%	24.1%	.268
2022-2023	.204/.331/.430	113	15.3%	25.7%	.224

Is this a byproduct of his 2021 UCL injury? Or is it more about his approach to hitting? Pop-ups plagued the 33-year-old last season despite plenty of hard contact, plus he’s become a pull hitter more so than in his earlier years. Regardless, the Dodgers extended him for two more seasons at $24M. I can’t blame the club for believing in a turnaround from a lefty bat with proven pop.

There’s not a ton of change with catcher Will Smith. And that’s a good thing. Three straight top-five seasons behind the dish justifiably earns a 4-win floor. Plus there’s more than a good chance to replace his 2023 value. On the flip side, Gavin Lux is back at shortstop in replacement of Miguel Rojas. The Miguel Rojas/Chris Taylor duo was certainly a glove-first operation last year. Case in point, Rojas’ saved 12 runs at short with a 66 wRC+. What’s tricky with Lux is he’s a much better fielder at second than what he saw in 500 innings at short. But the tradeoff is being a 25-40% better hitter, easily doubling Rojas’ replacement value. Lux/Taylor has nice platoon potential too. Offensive upgrades at DH, shortstop, and left field take the edge off of Betts and Freeman regressing.

The Hits Keep Coming

Much like the Lux-for-Rojas swap in the infield, Teoscar Hernandez trades defense for a more complete bat. That’s no knock on Teoscar but it does raise concern with watering down a top-five defensive outfield. Plus you have Mookie Betts taking his talents to second base, although he stands to provide significant gains by replacing Miguel Vargas’ half season there. Incoming Manuel Margot splices fairly well as the righty bat complement to Jason Hayward in right field. Margot is no slouch in the field either. A small defensive dropoff in left field and more balance in the infield keeps the L.A. defense as one of the best in 2024.

The balance of power in the outfield shifts towards left if Betts is truly the Dodgers’ everyday second baseman. It’s natural to be skeptical of another plus-20% offensive season from 34-year-old Jason Heyward, right? If he and Margot end up as an average hitting duo in right field, Dave Roberts is going to need centerfielder James Outman to stay healthy and figure this strikeout thing out. A.343-BABIP rookie season that earned 4.4 WAR is a high bar to reach again. Let’s see what the guy has in Spring Training, otherwise, things could be more grindy in year two.

— Rotation —

The yin to my less glowing yang with the offense is the upside this revamped rotation brings to the table. From a below-average season comes a ton of optimism with Japanese standout Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old’s backloaded 12-year contract incentivizes the righty staying in L.A. for the duration. But when it comes to Yamamoto’s MLB rookie season, prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen broke down the immediate impact of “one of the 10 best starting pitchers on the planet right now.” A full workload at a sub-4.00 level easily delivers 3+ WAR with the potential for more if the MLB transition goes according to plan (i.e. his stocked arsenal is as deceptive in the MLB as it was in Japan).

Yamamoto leads a 2024 rotation full of righty options ranging from veterans Tyler Glasgow and Walker Buehler to emerging stars Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone. The bad news: Tony Gonsolin is lost to Tommy John rehab after a disappointing 2023 and Dustin May’s status after flexor tendon surgery is up in the air. At least there are some signs of optimism that May could return sooner than later after beginning his throwing program in mid-January. Plus the beloved Clayton Kershaw was re-signed and should make his return to the mound this summer. That dovetails well with lefty James Paxton brought in to shore things up as a low-4.00s veteran. And there’s more good news: the painful Lance Lynn-Noah Syndergaard days in L.A. are over.

Before we get into this stable of young arms, let’s talk post-injury performance of Glasnow and Buehler. Walker’s nearly two-year absence really messes with the guy’s outlook. Workload questions will be answered in time but there is a divide in projecting his effectiveness as Tommy John surgery interrupted Buehler’s push for another sub-4.00 season in 2022. Tyler Glasnow is essentially one year ahead of Walker in terms of elbow recovery, making an impressive return with Tampa Bay last season. His fastball/slider/curve repertoire generated plenty of swings-and-misses en route to 33.4% strikeout and 51.2% ground ball rates. Some of that might soften as Glasnow’s workload increases though. Still, the 30-year-old holds a substantial floor that helps project around 5 WAR between these two dangerous starters.

The Arms of Tomorrow Impacting Today

Bobby Miller’s rookie breakout featured five legitimate weapons exceeding my expectations after a modest minor league tenure. With a hard, heavy sinker leading the way, Miller can afford a touch of regression if it does come home to roost. But the 24-year-old carried steady fundamental numbers as a rookie (3.76 ERA, 3.51 FIP/3.75 xFIP) and should replace his 2.8 WAR through several additional starts and stretching out further in them.

Less confidence in Emmet Sheehan’s 11-start debut is natural. He was a full run higher than Miller despite a low .240 BABIP and 25.8% strikeout rate. The whole home run/fly ball tendency exhibited last year makes it tough to project anything but 4.00+ numbers. He’s in line to get early-season reps to improve on the job, as could Gavin Stone and top prospect Michael Grove. The latter’s tough .364 BABIP created a major disparity between a 6.13 ERA and 4.36 FIP/3.92 xFIP. Stone, on the other hand, had a limited 4-start debut that does not give us much to go from.

It would take a collapse on several axes for this rotation not to add 5-8 wins of value in 2024. Highly unlikely, but it is a non-zero probability with injury risk clouding Tyler Glasnow and uncertainty surrounding Walker Buehler’s return. There’s enough in place to get the rotation back up to 2023 levels with upside provided by the young guns and veterans Clayton Kershaw and James Paxton. If you trust what pitching coach Mark Prior is cooking up, the starters will help lead the Dodgers to an eleventh NL West title in the last twelve years.

— Bullpen —

L.A.’s bullpen sits in the equal and opposite reaction column from the rotation. The reality check of an elite season getting squeezed back toward the mean is a natural function. Bullpens are swingy by nature, after all. Losing Caleb Ferguson’s 1.3 WAR is a hit softened by re-signing veterans Joe Kelly and Ryan Brasier. Regardless, this group remains stacked with high-leverage stalwarts Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol in the late innings. Will Graterol regress from his ground ball-heavy 1.20 ERA? If you put stock in the 3.03 FIP/3.53 xFIP that went with it, absolutely. Same concern goes for Phillips after watering down his 2.05 ERA with a 3.16 FIP/3.37 xFIP.

Shuffling the Deck

Dave Roberts’ knock as a suboptimal manager of his relievers may be more perception than anything – one of those talking points to debate on X until the cows come home. His near-term challenge is dealing with a handful of departures and two pitchers returning from season-long absences. Shelby Miller and Victor Gonzalez held their own while Yency Almonte struggled with walks. Now the threesome is gone. Blake Treinen and JP Feyereisen will chip away at this gap but their combined efforts look to be a fraction of those losses.

The Joe Kelly/Alex Vesia righty/lefty pair is a big part of the bullpen’s soft landing. Southpaw Vesia is a sub-4.00 reliever who should replace his value. That makes the re-signed Kelly a needed source of value after returning from the White Sox in mid-2023. The journeyman has such a volatile profile that mixes tons of ground balls, plenty of swing-and-miss, and a 10%+ walk rate. At least a full season in the Dodger bullpen soaks up part of the departed pitchers’ gap. Will the young starting pitcher corps pitch in at some point? Most likely. But the prospect of small late-inning regression and losing solid contributors has me making a downward adjustment around 2-3 WAR.

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Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 Win Total: Open 84.5

2023 Result: Over 75.5 (84-78 / Pythag: 80)

The books raised the Diamondbacks’ expectations by ten wins for the 2023 season. How did the club respond? By winning ten more games. But more importantly, Arizona slid into the final NL Wild Card berth and swept the first two rounds of the playoffs en route to a World Series appearance. That’s impressive enough in its own rights, let alone the individual player accolades cast upon Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll and Cy Young Award finalist Zac Gallen. Once again the books have ratcheted up the D-backs’ win total by close to ten more wins. Will they reach these increased market expectations once again?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• E Suarez (3B)
• E Rodriguez (SP – LHP)
• J Pederson (OF)
• R Grichuk (OF)

Subtractions:

• T Pham (OF)
• Z Davies (SP – RHP)
• E Longoria (3B)
• N Ahmed (SS)
• M Bumgarner (SP – LHP)
• M Melancon (RP – RHP)
• C Vargas (RP- RHP)
• D Fletcher (OF)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 82 – 85

— Position Players —

Arizona’a clutch run through the postseason wasn’t set up by an elite offense by any means. Bottom third in home runs (166) and league-average run production (746) don’t scream NL Pennant team to me. However, the Diamondbacks were one of the most prolific squads on the base paths, turning just enough into much more. They swiped the second-most stolen bases (166) behind Cincinnati, yet in a more efficient fashion at an MLB-best 86.3% stolen base rate.

And there’s nobody better to start this preview than with NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll. His 54 stolen bases more than doubled the team’s next highest total of 26 by Jake McCarthy. Oh yeah, Carroll was caught just 5 times for a whopping 91.5% success rate while grading out as the most productive base runner in the MLB. Not bad for a rookie, eh? The most impressive thing to me about Corbin’s season is how he got even better after a promising debut in 2022.

Diamondbacks’ top prospect Corbin Carroll makes Alek Thomas’ return to AAA an easy decision. Although you can’t rely much on 115 plate appearances to paint a picture moving forward, the speedy 22-year-old was phenomenal in the field and carried his minor league success at the plate with him in his MLB debut. A little more plate discipline and power in what should be his first full MLB season gets him in the +10-20% range offensively. Plus Carroll can replace the lost fielding value that Varsho and Thomas provided in center last year.

2023 NL West Preview & Futures, BetCrushers.com – February 27, 2023

Will the Snakes Keep Rattling?

Corbin Carroll’s late-2022 call-up was a springboard to a hot start that “cooled down” after the break. After the dust settled, the dude slashed .285/.362/.506 for the season and showed consistent discipline throughout. Cutting your strikeout rate by 7.4% goes a long, long way. If you want to play Carroll’s sophomore season more conservatively after the second half power dip, expect 1 win of falloff.

I’m a buyer of Ketel Marie being just as good as 2023. His second season back in the saddle at second base went better defensively. Plus both Marte and first baseman Christian Walker made strong cases for plus-20% baselines as consistent hitters with power and solid fielding. The weakest spot in the infield could be shortstop with light-hitting on-base machine Geraldo Perdomo. Although the switch-hitter found his groove against righties last year, he does not leave much room for error with Arizona’s #1 prospect Jordan Lawlar on his heels. Unless both shortstops bomb out, last year’s 2.2-WAR position value should be the floor.

The rising star of the infield posts up behind the plate by virtue of the Daulton Varsho trade with Toronto. So far Moreno looks to be the catcher that Arizona needed Varsho to be. Gabriel is now expected to take on workload beyond last year’s 854.0 innings. That’s a signal to mark down 2023’s very impressive 20 DRS…just not too much though. Growing as a hitter makes up for it on the other side, plus he and backup Tucker Barnhart are near locks to improve the catcher position from last season’s 19th-highest 1.1 WAR.

Room For Growth on the Grass?

The MLB’s ninth-best outfield group has a good shot at the top third once again. Even with a small Corbin Carroll dropoff and losing Tommy Pham’s big second half. Re-signing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a nice stabilizing move to retain a a reliable veteran corner outfielder. But I’m not a buyer of his sudden defensive spike per both DRS and zone rating. Small downward adjustments to Gurriel and Moreno aren’t enough to knock the Diamondbacks out of the top ten defensively though.

Signing Joc Pederson as a lefty-smashing DH keeps Gurriel in the outfield while adding a little more juice to the lineup. Carroll and 23-year-old Alek Thomas are looking at considerable playing time pending Thomas not getting any worse at the plate. He’s been very good in center field, making any notable improvement toward 80-90 wRC+ icing on the cake. The trouble comes with hiding his struggles against lefties without great platoon options for this premium position. With Pederson in the mix, corner outfielder Jake McCarthy becomes a wild card on the roster. Do we see 2022 or 2023 Jake this year? My guess is somewhere in the middle.

The Uncertainty of it All

Another new face in the position player corps joining Joc Pederson and Tucker Barnhart is another former Redleg, third baseman Eugeino Suarez. He slides into a position that ranked 25th – a real sore spot for Arizona last year. Manager Torey Lovullo searched for answers among Evan Longoria, Josh Rojas, Emmanuel Rivera, and Jace Peterson. Instead, the third base group produced a 75 wRC+ that Suarez smashes even with another middling season. It’s boom-or-bust as usual with the fan favorite.

Is it crazy to think that this team will be stuck in neutral next year? Corbin Carroll played out of his mind and we shouldn’t be convinced that Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy will find their way offensively near the league average. But there’s offensive upside with Suarez at third and Moreno behind the plate. So I’ll probably chicken out and keep Arizona’s offensive ratings close to 2023’s with a small bump against righties.

— Rotation —

Calling the 2023 rotation top-heavy is an understatement. Right-handers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly carried one hell of a load as Torey Lovullo kept the musical chairs in motion. The younger arms of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Tommy Henry were thrown into the mix while veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner flamed out and Zach Davies came to the end of the road in Phoenix. Shining through the ups and downs of the starting pitchers’ 46-51 record were Gallen’s 17-9 and Kelly’s 12-8. Other than Tommy Henry (5-4), these two were the only starters that finished the season with winning records.

Gallen, who was traded from the Marlins in 2019 for Jazz Chisholm Jr., was rewarded for his efforts with a $10M contract. And the 28-year-old is under another year of team control after this one. If 2022 was Zac’s breakout campaign (4.2 WAR, 184.0 IP), 2023 is undoubtedly his statement season. 34 starts and 210.0 innings ranked second in the MLB behind the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas and the Giants’ Logan Webb, respectively. So where does Gallen go after this high-volume, 3.47 ERA, 3.26 FIP/3.49 xFIP season? Well, our loyal readers probably guessed that I would say “regression”. And you would be right.

Keeping the High Rolling

An alternative to Zac Gallen’s outlook question is continued progression from a 4.2-WAR 2022 to last year’s 5.2 WAR by climbing another rung higher in 2024. But the guy can’t add much volume and mid-3.00s performance across that many innings is very, very good. If Gallen fires back with 30 starts, 200+ innings, and a 4+ K/BB ratio then we’re talking about 4-5 WAR again. In my opinion, it all comes down to health and maintaining that workload – not his ability or execution.

Jumping to a guy who is seven years his senior, Merrill Kelly has been Gallen’s trusted running mate for the last couple campaigns. Back-to-back 30+ start seasons of sub-4.00 work from your #2 checks off a box plenty of teams would like to have. No reason to doubt Kelly’s ability to stay around the 6 innings/start mark either. My concern is more with last year’s bump in swinging strike rate – and overall strikeout rate for that matter. Is the changeup for real, or will the righty’s stuff simmer in 2024? Right now I’m more in the modest tail off for Gallen and Kelly camp. Something in the neighborhood of 2 wins of lost value combined.

This is where Eduardo Rodriguez comes in. It’s safe to call 2023 his comeback year after putting in a full season of work in Detroit. And he’s a much-needed lefty in the D-backs rotation. Everything in Eduardo’s broad arsenal was working well enough to deliver 3.0 WAR across just 152.2 innings. His 3.30 ERA likely ticks up if they can get 30 starts out of him, but that’s a good tradeoff for a club that could have used another 30-40 innings from its starters last year.

Assembling the Team

It’s time for the young arms to step up now that the dead weight aging pitchers are gone from the roster. Ryne Nelson followed up his brief MLB stint in 2022 with a healthy dose of rotation work – 27 starts to be exact. The lack of strikeouts (15.5%) is concerning though. And if the hard contact issues persist, Nelson could get squeezed out of the rotation by another 26-year-old, Tommy Henry. Aside from being a left-hander, Henry and Nelson share plenty of similarities when it comes to their prospects as regular contributors in the Diamondbacks rotation. They’ll have to stay comfortably under the 5.00 threshold or the door could be open for the next group headlined by Slade Cecconi and Bryce Jarvis.

But the cream of this crop is 25-year-old Brandon Pfaadt. You wouldn’t know it by the 5.70 ERA tagged onto his 18 starts though. A 3.62 K/BB ratio is respectable, especially for a five-pitch rookie with a promising slider. Noah Wright from VenomStrikes.com hit the key points on the head. Pfaadt got better as the season went on, was dominant in the playoffs, and suffered from an egregious home run rate right after his call-up. Look for another 40-50 innings somewhere around the low-4.00s to pick up a good amount of slack in the rotation. As good as Gallen and Kelly were last year, the rotation as a whole could actually be a touch better.

— Bullpen —

Late-game victories are a key part of reaching 84 wins when your starting pitchers net 5 games under .500. As pedestrian as the bullpen was, they held down the fort well enough for offensive heroics to lead the relievers to a 38-27 record and 44 saves. Until the club traded with Seattle for Paul Sewald, the closer position was essentially a committee. The veteran righty closed out 13 games in 20 appearances down the stretch. Sewald is under control for the 2024 season and figures to be the team’s closer – a perfectly good option as a prototypical fastball/slider reliever who gets plenty of strikeouts and weak contact.

Journeyman Miguel Castro and Kevin Ginkel join Sewald at the back end as 10% walk guys who, at times, add an extra touch of variance to the sauce. Ginkel’s fastball/slider combo has gradually developed into a strikeout profile with tons of ground balls. The problem is that he comes off of a .244 BABIP season that’s about 50 points below his norm. Arizona’s rock solid defense helped his cause but I’m still marking Ginkel for slight regression as his 1.3 WAR and 2.48 ERA are shadowed by a 2.86 FIP/3.60 xFIP. Miguel Castro is less remarkable given that he doesn’t deliver a similar strikeout rate as the other two (22.4%) but still yields the walks.

Selling off Andrew Chafin mid-season leaves a lefty specialist job open alongside Joe Mantiply. Unfortunately, Mantiply peaked in that monster 2022 season and Lovullo will turn to the young Andrew Saalfrank for a bigger share of the left-hander workload. In the big picture, Sewald and Ginkel plus a stable of high-3.00s to mid-4.00s relievers could be worse. The bullpen shapes up much like the starting rotation – similar value to 2023 with a touch of upside.

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San Diego Padres 2024 Win Total: Open 84, Now 81

2023 Result: Under 93.5 (82-80 / Pythag: 92)

Tensions between boss man AJ Preller and manager Bob Melvin are one thing. An utter failure to produce in the first half of the season is another. Both explain the dismissal of the highly-respected manager and subsequent hiring of former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt to head up the dugout. But for the Padres franchise, another disappointing result despite former owner Peter Seidler’s willingness to spend leaves a lot of questions about which direction things go. Seidler’s unfortunate passing and lack of revenue surety with their RSA cascaded into a salary dump revolving around one of the MLB’s young superstars, Juan Soto. The deck chairs have been shuffled. So where will San Diego slot into the 2024 NL West pecking order?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• E De Los Santos (RP – RHP)
• M King (SP – RHP)
• D Thorpe (SP – RHP)
• J Brito (RP – RHP)
• R Vasquez (SP – RHP)
• K Higashioka (C)
• Yuki Matsui (RP – LHP)
• Woo Suk Go (RP – RHP)
• W Peralta (RP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• B Snell (SP – LHP)
• S Lugo (SP – RHP)
• M Wacha (SP – RHP)
• G Sanchez (C)
• J Hader (RP – LHP)
• N Martinez (RP – RHP)
• R Odor (2B)
• G Cooper (1B/DH)
• L Garcia (RP – RHP)
• D Pomeranz (RP – LHP)
• T Hill (RP – LHP)
• A Nola (C)
• S Barlow (RP – RHP)
• J Soto (OF)
• T Grisham (OF)
• M Carpenter (DH)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 80 – 82

— Position Players —

Losing Juan Soto’s elite bat in December’s seven-player mega deal with the Yankees takes some wind out of this lineup’s sails. The Padres offense put up their best numbers in quite some time aside from the shortened 2020 season. They were especially deadly against left-handed pitching (.271/.343/.464; 123 wRC+) though much more pedestrian against righties (.233/.323/.393; 101 wRC+). Soto getting back on track offensively contributed to the team’s strength against southpaws while propping up their middling effectiveness versus righties via 27 homers and a monster .283/.424/.556 slash line in that split.

San Diego also parted with centerfielder Trent Grisham in that deal. Even though Grisham never returned to the promising offensive form of the 2020 & 2021 seasons, his plus glove will be missed. The bright spot here is that Trent left on an average note in the field as compared to 2022. Jose Azocar is a leading candidate to replace his defensive value. As for Jose’s bat, that’s iffy at this point in his fledgling MLB career. Through the lens of fielding, Soto’s role as a bat-first corner outfielder will not be satisfactorily addressed. His firmly negative defensive values were well worth the return at the plate, and familiar face Jurickson Profar is a token gesture toward filling Juan’s huge shoes.

Fernando Tatis Jr’s return to action was not super fulfilling offensively. However, his defense blew most of our expectations out of the water. Tatis’ 29 runs saved in right field was tops in the MLB at that position – 20 runs higher than the second-highest, to be exact. Couple that with a sixth-best zone rating and it’s safe to say that Tatis is sufficiently on track. Yet I’m taking that defensive breakout with a small grain of salt while buying into the majority expectation for a 20%+ boost at the plate. Tatis can add 1+ wins of value and absorb some of the dropoff from Grisham. Overall, these effects in the outfield lead me to minimal defensive markdowns for the team.

Flush With Infielders

Catcher Kyle Higashioka is a decent return for bolstering the catcher group. A couple weeks after non-tendering Austin Nola, the Soto trade netted a quality backstop partner for an up-and-coming Luis Campusano. 25-year-old Campusano slashed .319/.356/.491 while posting middling defensive numbers in his first season with significant workload in the majors. Higgy offers a decent bat and good defense/pitch framing behind the plate, strengthening the catcher position in the absence of Nola and Gary Sanchez.

Continuity on the dirt helps the Friars’ case for status quo among the infielders. Manny Machado’s elbow surgery will restrict him to DH duties to begin the season, potentially leaving an open door for Matthew Batten to pick up where he left off as a .258/.355/.358 contact hitter. What I am seeing from talent evaluators is a heavy dose of don’t count on it. In fact, the 28-year-old rookie underlines concerns with San Diego’s general lack of depth here. Matt Carpenter turning back into a pumpkin last year and top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill being blocked by Machado, Bogaerts, and company stunt the upside around the infield.

San Diego’s plan to swap middle infield spots between Bogaerts and flexible infielder Ha-Seong Kim is a reasonable approach to internally improving the defense. Even if you’re skeptical of Kim’s uptick in power and following up a monster 38 stolen bases, he still projects as a plus hitter and defender. Jake Cronenworth’s role as a rare left-hander in the lineup is quietly crucial after losing Juan Soto. The 30-year-old’s hitting pullback and wrist injury led to a steep dropoff from his eye-opening 4+ WAR in 2021 and 2022. A modest rebound should mitigate any regression from Kim. All told, the most impactful effect on the lineup is the loss of Soto’s left-handed bat (duh), leading to a decent downward adjustment against southpaws and a stronger one against righties.

— Rotation —

If you can remember way back in early parts of the 2023 season, the noise about the Padres’ rotation concerned Joe Musgrove’s foot problems. The tone gradually shifted towards a buzz around Blake Snell’s run at the NL Cy Young award to sit alongside his AL hardware. Turns out, 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball got the job done. The interesting parallel between Snell’s two Cy Young seasons are the numbers he put up in each. Career-high innings, lowest ERAs and BABIPs, and 4+ WAR valuations. The wake left by Blake Snell’s dash to free agency is one of both quantity and quality – the wicked double whammy of pitching valuation.

Losing the 9+ WAR trio of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha leaves a sizable scar for the 2024 rotation to deal with. The fact that they accounted for about 2/3rds of the group’s WAR is a thing to contend with. In order to keep a solidly above-average unit from dropping into the dregs of the majors, the Padres’ front office had to do something in the face of potential payroll constraints. That’s if you want to call $200M a “constraint”. Add in the concerns of Joe Musgrove’s shoulder surgery and Yu Darvish reaching the ripe age of 37. Realistic expectations for 22-26 start seasons in the high-3.00s/low-4.00s should be good for 5 WAR or so. In essence, what’s left of the rotation’s old guard should replace themselves with modest upside.

The Juan Soto Haul

The pitcher-heavy haul returned from the Yankees is highlighted by righty Michael King. His late-season transition from the bullpen to the rotation resulted in even more success regardless of whether you’re an ERA person or one who puts more weight into FIP, xFIP, K/BB ratio, etc. A conservative approach to Michael King’s role as a mid-rotation piece still yields a modest mid-3.00s and 2+ WAR expectation. That’s a reasonable proxy for Michael Wacha.

Realistically, even Blake Snell wasn’t going to replace his 4 wins of value if he stuck with the Padres. Drew Thorpe shouldn’t factor much in the 2024 rotation and Johny Brito is tagged as more of a reliever-first arm at this point. Brito was ravaged as a starter last year (13 starts, 6.32 ERA, 6.33 FIP/5.38 xFIP) while much more respectable in relief (12 appearances, 1.43 ERA, 2.51 FIP/3.66 xFIP). Turns out, right-handed 25-year-old Randy Vasquez could be the guy Mike Shildt leans on to eat 20+ starts. But the quality of those 100+ innings is somewhere in the mid-4.00s, leaving a 1-2 WAR gap between Vasquez and Seth Lugo’s production last season.

All of that still leaves the question of how to replace Snell’s 32 starts and 4 WAR. Less-experienced arms like Matt Waldron, Jay Groome, and Pedro Avila should get their opportunities. However, these guys are more or less sixth man-type starters. And that might be generous. This is where losing flexible righty Nick Martinez to free agency really stings. With depth lacking and a glaring one-and-a-half starting pitcher hole, a 3 win reduction is fair at this point.

— Bullpen —

San Diego’s relief group held on to two of their four most productive arms this winter. Tom Cosgrove and Steven Wilson can replace their collective 104.1 innings, although expecting Cosgrove to repeat a 1.75-ERA performance is a fool’s errand. He faces the reality of 2023’s 3.70 FIP/4.91 xFIP that comes with a depressed .209 BABIP and a bit of home run luck. There is some solace after losing Josh Hader and Nick Martinez though – a duo that provided around 2/3rds of the bullpen’s value. Left-handed help from the NPB’s Yuki Matsui and 32-year-old veteran Wandy Peralta is welcome.

We don’t have a great feel for Robert Suarez as a regular high-leverage arm, let alone as a closer. Last season’s sticky stuff suspension, lack of workload, and .157 BABIP don’t radiate much of a warm and fuzzy feeling. The addition of workhorse Enyel De Los Santos is fine if not uninspiring for the Padres’ back end. AJ Preller’s budget-friendly KBO signing Woo Suk Go gets tons of ground balls and has good swing-and-miss stuff. But last year’s 11.6% walk rate is a thing to monitor. Lacking high-leverage punch and overall reliability warrants a 1+ WAR markdown.

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San Francisco Giants 2024 Win Total: Open 81, Now 82

2023 Win Total: Over 78.5 (79-83 / Pythag: 76)

For the most part, professional sports are a what have you done for me lately work environment. This goes for almost everyone from role players and stars up to coaches and management. Nobody’s job is truly safe. After his exile from Philadelphia, Gabe Kapler found greener pastures in San Francisco – green enough to catapult him and his management style to 107 wins and NL Manager of the Year accolades in 2021. Now Kapler finds himself in the Marlins front office after his magic wore off. In comes 3x Manager of the Year and Bay Area familiar Bob Melvin to right the ship.
But does he have the horses to keep up in a very competitive division?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Jung Hoo Lee (OF)
• T Murphy (C)
• R Ray (SP – LHP)
• J Hicks (RHP)
• J Soler (OF/DH)

Subtractions:

• S Manaea (SP – LHP)
• J Junis (RHP)
• S Alexander (RP – LHP)
• J Pederson (OF)
• B Crawford (SS)
• J Brebbia (RP – RHP)
• A Wood (SP – LHP)
• A DeSclafani (RHP)
• M Haniger (OF)
• R Stripling (RHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 76 – 79

— Position Players —

It’s crazy to think that Gabe Kapler used too much magic in 2021, establishing a sky-high bar nearly impossible to reach in the last couple seasons. Which makes stopping the bleeding job #1 for Bob Melvin after the offense completely dropped off the map. So to continue chronicling the club’s downhill slide from the 107-win season, I tacked on another row to the table from last season’s NL West preview:

SFG Key Offensive & Defensive Metrics (2021-2023)

	R	HR	Slash Line	wRC+	DRS	UZR/150
2023	674	174	.235/.312/.383	93	-15	-3.0
2022	716	183	.234/.315/.390	101	-53	-5.3
2021	804	241	.249/.329/.440	107	32	-0.5

I expected more from San Francisco’s position player group on both sides of the ledger. Offensively, that was a clear miss. The defense did not let me down though. Net gains in the outfield were through the roof after a miserable defensive season in 2022. And now this group gains a talented young fielder in KBO import Jung Hoo Lee, the Giants’ new centerfielder. He brings a strong arm, speed, and range to the table along with plate discipline and a quality leadoff hitter bat. A 25-year-old Lee in center flanked by Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto makes for a plus-10% hitting crew on the grass. Plus Bob Melvin has a good platoon counterpart in Austin Slater.

Finding a reliable primary backstop has been a tall task since Buster Posey retired. 24-year-old Patrick Bailey looks to be the leading candidate after an impressive rookie campaign. Sure, he isn’t a top-half type of hitter like Posey but his fielding makes it worthwhile. Bailey’s .233/.285/.359 line is not going to suddenly erupt. 13 runs saved and superb framing, however, is well worth it after the position group netted a 10-run improvement from 2022 to 2023. Former Seattle catcher Tom Murphy comes in on a two-year deal as Patrick’s running mate – if he can stay healthy. His middling defense typically gets balanced out by a potent bat. This is a telling sign of the club’s lost faith in Blake Sabol and Joey Bart as key backstop pieces. It’s fair to say that San Francisco’s defense has stabilized and should tend slightly positive with the addition of Lee.

Infield Stability Counts For Something

If all goes well, we all get older and deal with the effects of aging. Longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford’s final season may have been a disappointment from a production and health standpoint, but the 36-year-old finished his career in San Francisco with a ton of love from the fans. He was an excellent fielder with a plus bat in his heyday. And Crawford’s resurgence in 2021 was a huge part of propelling the team to that monster season along with 2x World Series Champion teammate Buster Posey. You know the adage though: Father Time is, in fact, undefeated.

The Giants move on nonetheless, looking to address their deficiency at shortstop. Although they lack proven answers at this critical position, 22-year-old Marco Luciano is in line to take a crack at becoming the heir to Crawford’s throne. Thairo Estrada worked his way into the starting second base job with improved defense and an average bat. So is top prospect Luciano going to turn around one of the worst shortstop groupings in the MLB? This is probably the biggest question mark looming over the Giants position player corps at the moment. Perhaps Spring Training will help answer this one.

Estrada and third baseman JD Davis aren’t expected to revert back to 120 wRC+ hitters. Fortunately, left-handed hitter LaMonte Wade Jr. has developed into the bat-first player that can justify occupying first base with righty counterpart Wilmer Flores. These two high-on base guys join Jung Hoo Lee to form a meaty third of the lineup. After moving on from Joc Pederson and the oft-injured Mitch Haniger, it only made sense to sign free agent thumper Jorge Soler to power up the lineup. Every drop of the veteran right-handed hitter’s .512 slugging percentage might not make it to the Bay Area but he’ll undoubtedly boost the Giants’ anemic splits against southpaws. So should we call last season their offensive bottom? It makes sense to me. The gains should be modest but spread across both sides of the plate with Lee and Soler in the lineup.

— Rotation —

The 2023 season was a reality check for the Giants rotation. It struggled with an ERA about a half-run higher and 53.2 less innings worked than in 2022. The easy explanation is the absence of left-hander Carlos Rodon’s 31 starts that graded out at 6.2 WAR. Big shoes, eh? Not with Logan Webb around. The dude just keeps getting better season after season. His 4.9 WAR came damn close to replacing Rodon as he pounded out 216.0 innings of 3.25 ERA, 3.16 FIP/2.95 xFIP ball. The only realistic scenario that derails another 4+ WAR season is lost time to injury.

What really held the unit back was a lack of mid-rotation guys stepping up to replace Webb’s ascension. Alex Cobb did well enough to pitch another 150-inning season but shed value by taking small steps back in many areas. Even at the ripe age of 36, he’s reliable enough to stay below the 4.00 mark. The problem, ironically, is the veteran will miss the beginning of the season after offseason hip surgery. Don’t sleep on Father Time.

Farhan Zaidi and the front office made things interesting by swapping Anthony DeSclafani for left-hander Robbie Ray as the 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Getting Ray into the fold just in time for a playoff push would be a nice shot in the arm. It’s the playoffs part that seems like a pipe dream though. An overachieving season could sneak them in as a wild card, so the Giants cannot afford to go through April with Logan Webb and a pack of untested arms.

The Clock Is Ticking

Numerous losses from last year’s rotation accelerates MLB Top 20 prospect Kyle Harrison’s exposure this season. He is slated to lead fellow rookies Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck in accumulating starts while Cobb and Ray are on the shelf. Another interesting wrinkle is bringing in flamethrower Jordan Hicks to take the leap from reliever to starter. Although the Cardinals dabbled with putting Hicks in the rotation a couple seasons ago after injury, the Giants provide a great opportunity to take another crack at starting. Ground balls and strikeouts make this fastball/slider righty one to watch. Can he stay healthy and remain effective over 100+ innings with a limited arsenal? If so, Jordan offers mid-3.00s effectiveness after nailing down a 3.29 ERA and 3.22 FIP/3.36 xFIP last year in relief.

Harrison and Winn have the prospect pedigrees to drive low-4.00s expectations. With only 12 MLB starts between them, 150 innings are reasonable ceilings. A conservative 1.5-2.5 combined WAR is year-over-year upside filling Anthony DeSclafani’s void and then some. That makes Beck the early-season wild card as the #5 in Cobb’s absence or stopgap replacement otherwise. It took the 27-year-old a few years to reach the majors before gaining traction in the bullpen last season. The 2024 rotation shapes up to be 2-3 wins better with modest success from Hicks and a respectable sophomore season or two from their up-and-comers. Otherwise, expect another year as a bottom-third unit. Logan Webb can’t do it all.

— Bullpen —

Giants relievers picked up about as much slack as they could from the starters. Their 50 wins and 703 strikeouts were tops in the MLB; 5.4 WAR ranked seventh. And when you consider how pedestrian San Francisco’s offense was, a 50-33 record in relief isn’t too shabby either. It all starts with their hammer, closer Camilo Doval and his sub-3.00 stuff. The problem is that I’m not seeing calls for a prolific third season in a row from my go-to projection sources. That could be the difference between being the fifth-best closer and the tenth-best.

The Rogers Twins return in support of Doval along with a healthy Luke Jackson. Submariner Tyler notched a third straight 70+ inning season, outpacing his peripherals by keeping hitters off balance. Left-hander Taylor joins Luke Jackson as mid-to-upper 4.00 types – more indicative of average relief units than top-ten ones. And things get more iffy from there. Ryan Walker, Sean Hjelle, and Devin Sweet made their MLB debuts last season with Walker leading the way toward a more prominent role in 2024. Anticipate Bob Melvin having to play musical chairs with his relief personnel to get everything out of them. All of this adds up to losing 2-3 WAR. Young arms replacing the 139.1 innings and 1.6 WAR left behind by John Brebbia, Scott Alexander, and Sean Manaea could be a tall task.

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Colorado Rockies 2024 Win Total: Open 62.5, Now 60.5

2023 Result: Under 68.5 (59-103 / Pythag: 60)

Ever notice how the Rockies have see-sawed around their win total expectations in recent years? 2023 was undoubtedly an underachieving season by record alone. When you dig beyond that record, it becomes clear what went wrong. Injuries and aging veterans handcuffed the offense. More injuries knocked out the pillars of their rotation. And the rest, well, wasn’t quite history. A new season is here and expectations have been recalibrated – but is there value in this bargain basement number?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• C Quantrill (SP – RHP)
• D Hudson (SP – RHP)
• J Stallings (C)

Subtractions:

• B Suter (RP – LHP)
• C Anderson (SP – RHP)
• T Blach (LHP)
• A Wynns (C)
• H Castro (2B)
• J Profar (OF)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 45 – 70

— Rotation —

Let’s get ugly and talk about starting pitching in Colorado. Only two pitchers were healthy enough and/or survived to make 20+ starts: Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber. And both finished the season with an ERA, FIP, and xFIP greater than 5.00. Colorado’s starting pitchers unsurprisingly ranked dead last in those three categories in addition to strikeout rate. A fair amount of this can be pinned on Coors Field’s dimensions and the thin air – that much we should all know. So how do the Rockies move forward with some semblance of a “rotation” as opposed to a collection of spot starters?

Injuries to German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela cut the Rockies’ most reliable pitchers’ seasons short with Tommy John surgeries. Late 2024 returns are possible but manager Bud Black likely isn’t counting on them to make any meaningful impact on the team’s immediate trajectory. He’ll turn to his ground ball contact pitchers Freeland, Gomber, and Ryan Feltner to hold things down as best as possible. Newcomers Cal Quantrill and Dakotah Hudson are already 5.00+ ground ball types that didn’t generate many strikeouts and whiffs in Cleveland and St. Louis, respectively.

Minor league depth pieces like Peter Lambert and Noah Davis can fill in gaps without much concern for steep dropoff. But that shouldn’t make Bud and the fans feel much better about the situation. They need innings, and they need them badly after starting pitchers clocked the third-lowest innings (767.0) in 2023. I should just leave things there considering how the Rockies are simply trying to make it through 2024 without their two main arms to lead them. It’s difficult to downgrade this group after last year’s showing. Ironically, there’s some upside via continuity and eating more innings with a pack of 1-WAR arms.

— Bullpen —

After glossing over Colorado’s staring pitchers of last resort, I have to give this bullpen its due. They hacked through 647.0 innings of work left over by that ailing rotation. Sure, a 5.41 ERA ranked last in the MLB but that’s what happens when you’re forced to lean on a bullpen that is anything but stacked with high-leverage talent. This year, they’ll have to do it without key lefties Brent Suter and Brad Hand. Suter was very much in control over 66.1 innings in 55 appearances, posting a 3.26 ERA and 3.38 FIP/4.38 xFIP. Hand was deployed as more of a specialist before he was traded to Atlanta at the deadline. In their stead, former Rays reliever/opener Jalen Beeks now stands as the left-handed relief option.

For better or worse, there’s plenty of consistency carrying over to this season. Jake Bird broke out with a respectable 4.27 ERA with big value from carrying a hefty 84.1 innings for this heavily-leaned on bullpen. Expect a reduced workload while remaining as a key bulk reliever. Tyler Kinley is an interesting one to keep an eye on after a promising look in 2022. Then rehab from flexor tendon surgery turned the later part of 2023 into a reclamation phase. Did Daniel Bard’s implosion hit rock bottom? Spring Training was a harbinger of a brutal walk rate that got worse as the season went on. Unfortunately, he’ll miss spring warmups due to a torn meniscus.

I’m on the fence with closer Justin Lawrence. Mad respect for shouldering should a huge load behind a rough starting pithing corps. Look at Lawrence’s season – not the 4-7 record or 7 blown saves part – and his 3.72 ERA, 23.9% K rate, and 48.5% ground ball rate pop out at you. Yet he was anything but consistent. Compare the 29-year-old’s performance before and after the All-Star Break:

J Lawrence, 2023 First/Second-Half Comparison

	ERA	FIP	xFIP	BABIP	K%	BB%
1H	1.93	3.01	4.00	.246	24.2%	11.3%
2H	4.11	4.93	4.67	.378	23.6%	10.7%
Season	3.72	3.76	4.26	.300	23.9%	11.0%

Lawrence was used quite a bit so you can understand the falloff. 75.0 innings is a lot to ask again, especially as the go-to endgame pitcher with Pierce Johnson no longer in the fold. Otherwise, there’s decent talent in this bullpen alongside quite a few dice rolls. Which means plenty cycling of players through Triple-A Albuquerque. Still, the biggest unknown looming over the group hinges on the rotation’s ability to eat more innings. Less reaching into the abyss of unproven 5.00+ arms, the better. And with that comes a wide range of outcomes for the bullpen. But that range tops out around last year’s production with a good bit of downside.

— Position Players —

Colorado’s position players graded out far and away the worst in the MLB last season. 0.6 WAR: last. Park-adjusted 78 wRC+: last. Plus the Rockies finished with the third-highest strikeout rate, 27th in home runs (163), and 28th in stolen bases (76). Seven players registering 100+ plate appearances drug the team down with negative WAR values. Of those laggards, CJ Cron, Harold Castro, and Jurickson Profar are gone – with the latter two costing the club -3.6 WAR in 2023.

The silver lining to having a glut of sub-replacement players returning to the roster is rebound potential. Kris Bryant is the most glaring example after the 32-year-old’s least productive season of his career. His first full year in Denver was disappointing due to injury but at least he hit well in those 42 games. 2023 was the worst of both worlds: injured for half the season, anything but productive in the half he was present for. You can guarantee that Bryant’s .233/.313/.367 isn’t quite what the franchise had in mind when signing him to a 7-year, $182M deal. A rebound back to a league-average bat gains the Rockies nearly two wins of value, even at a 60% playing time adjustment as the team’s regular first baseman with CJ Cron gone from the roster.

Shifting To Their Strengths

Removing Kris Bryant’s defensive liability from the outfield makes room for one of the youngest outfields in baseball. Aging players Randal Grichuk and Jurickson Profar took their negative fielding with them, creating a situation where more capable fielders Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle lead a better run-preventing outfield. The 25-year-old Jones was by far the best position player on the team last season, slashing a meaty .297/.389/.542 with good corner outfield play. Being skeptical of the sudden breakout that leaned on a .401 BABIP should lead to a 15-20% offensive correction. Strikeouts have hampered him at every level as a professional but the young star still has 2+ WAR projections for 2024.

Rookie Gold Glove centerfielder Brenton Doyle broke onto the scene much more quietly than Jones. That’s because he simply could not hit (.203/.250/.343) and the 26-year-old’s glove work took a back seat to his offensive struggles. A lack of power and brutal plate discipline (35.0% K, 5.1% BB) could be improved to earn Doyle a 20% bump at the plate. Bud Black desperately needs guys like Doyle and Jones on the base paths to kickstart much-needed action and run production. Doyle’s arm and range are impressive attributes to have in the Colorado outfield, helping to lead what should be a positive fielding group that drives the team’s overall improvement on defense.

Things get murkier outside of those two though. Hunter Goodman is penciled in as the other regular corner outfielder but needs to show more discipline and make better contact in Spring Training. As of now, outfield depth is a mixed bag between non-roster invitee Bradley Zimmer and late season call-up Sean Bouchard. You would think that the promising Bouchard can make the team ahead of an unreliable Zimmer. It’s also hard to tell if 37-year-old Rockies legend Charlie Blackmon will get reps in right field as a change of pace from DH duties. All in all, doubling last season’s outfield value is a very achievable goal with the aging dead weight no longer in the equation.

Building On Infield Stability

Shortstop phenom Ezequiel Tovar did not disappoint in the field, grading out with a top-five glove at this premium position. Valuing him similar to last season with small upside if he can cut 4-5% off of his strikeout rate is a reasonable outlook for the 22-year-old. Tovar gets a regular double play partner back after Brendan Rodgers missed most of the 2023 regular season due to a shoulder injury suffered in Spring Training. More Rogers and much less Alan Trejo and Harold Castro improves Colorado’s infield fielding metrics and a decent boost at the plate. Second base was a major liability without him. Healthy bounceback campaigns are needed from Brendan Rodgers and Kris Bryant to turn the Rox’ offense in the right direction.

Third baseman Ryan McMahon has been a beacon of consistency, playing in 91.7% of the Rockies’ games over the last five seasons. 2023’s 1.2 WAR was a disappointment by his own standards, though it serves as a floor for the year ahead. Infield depth is sketchy much like the outfield though. Elehuris Montero is not suited for middle infield duty but may be a viable platoon option with Blackmon at DH and Alan Trejo as the glove-first infield substitution.

Turning around a bottom-three catching unit that finished the season at -0.1 WAR seems like a pipe dream at the moment. Elias Diaz’ bat is anything but consistent and his fielding never regained the promise shown in 2021. Although Diaz gains a new running mate in veteran Jacob Stallings, improvement over Austin Wynns’ limited role is marginal, at best. Stallings’ once-admirable framing, throwing, and blocking attributes continue to tail off and his bat never got up to speed after leaving Pittsburgh in 2021. Both catchers appear to be past their primes and prospect Drew Romo couldn’t be ready soon enough to come up and get reps.

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2024 NL West Projected Standings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (101-61)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
3. San Diego Padres (81-81)
4. San Francisco Giants (78-84)
5. Colorado Rockies (53-109)

Bases Loaded

That’s three division previews on base, and three more coming up to bat! Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com to catch the AL Central and AL West previews. Plus you can follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email notifications: