What a difference one year makes! Sure, the Baltimore Orioles gave us a sneak peak of their future plans in 2022 but last year’s achievements were far and away one of the MLB’s biggest surprises. Despite Tampa Bay’s 29-7 start to the campaign, Baltimore outlasted the Rays in the division race while the Red Sox faded and Yankees resigned themselves to mediocracy. There must have been something in New York City’s water supply with the Yanks going toe to toe with the Mets as the most disappointing team in the majors. Will the 2024 AL East crank out three playoff teams once again, or is the division more polarized?
The blood, sweat, and tears continue with the BetCrushers’ 5th Annual Divisional Previews & Futures outlook for the 2024 MLB season. As always, we appreciate your support! Are they too much? Maybe. But the ends continue to justify the means, and we hope you’re able to make a few bucks along the way. (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)
2023 Division Winner: Baltimore Orioles
2023 AL East Final Standings
- Baltimore Orioles (101-61)
- Tampa Bay Rays (99-63)
- Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
- New York Yankees (82-80)
- Boston Red Sox (78-84)
Baltimore Orioles 2024 Win Total: Open 88.5, Now 91
2023 Result: Over 77 (101-61 / Pythag: 94)
One season removed from smashing their bargain basement expectations to smithereens, Baltimore told us to hold their beer and watch how to take the AL East by storm. 101 wins and the Orioles’ first division title since 2014 marked a wildly successful follow-up. So what does the market have to say this offseason? Try to reach 90 wins after your historically clutch season. Even after correcting for a more modest 94 pythag wins their win total seems a bit light on face value. Looks like we have some investigating to do…
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C Kimbrel (RP – RHP)
- C Burnes (SP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- K Gibson (SP – RHP)
- A Hicks (OF)
- A Frazier (2B)
- S Fujinami (RP – RHP)
- DL Hall (SP – LHP)
- J Ortiz (INF)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 85 – 89
— Position Players —
Baltimore’s “clutch” offense is one explanation for their 7-win pythag disparity. A lights-out bullpen is another reason. In the big picture, the O’s position players rounded out in the top ten both offensively and defensively. That’s a big step forward from trotting out a below-average offense the year prior. Despite a conservative approach to the new stolen base environment and launching just the seventeenth-most home runs, this talented lineup was consistently good hitting for average. Smacking the third-most doubles (309) and scoring the seventh-most runs (807) without overwhelming power says something.
AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson parlayed his brief 2022 MLB debut into a full season of 50%+ hard contact and .489 slugging. 100 runs scored and the third-most triples (9) coupled with plus defense at both positions on the left side was more than enough to bring on those accolades. The emergence of infielder Jordan Westburg overlapping Henderson’s breakout is another point of optimism. He didn’t sport the same bat as Gunnar but flashed enough leather to turn around the league’s bottom-third second baseman group. Other notable 2023 MLB debuts include outfielder Colton Cowser and outfielder/DH Heston Kjerstad. Both are in line for more playing time as role players as the season goes on.
Managing the Infield Shuffle
Manager Brandon Hyde has a tough, but good, problem on his hands. It’s rooted in an infield full of top prospects that are quickly realizing their immense potential. 2022’s 1st overall draft pick and last season’s highest-ranked prospect Jackson Holliday looks ready for the MLB at the fresh age of 20. 2+ WAR expectations as a pure rookie who rose from A-ball all the way to AAA last season is pretty absurd when you think about it. Especially at the premium shortstop position. The kid has Matt Holiday’s genes and all the makings of another young star in Charm City.
Holliday’s bona fide shortstop fielding skills create something of a musical chairs situation with the reigning AL RoY. And that’s just fine, considering that Ramon Urias has likely peaked offensively and his 2022 fielding spike appears to be an outlier. Both Urias and Jorge Mateo still add plenty of value backing up one of the youngest, most talented infields out there. Considering that the first baseman lefty-righty tandem of Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle is the weakest part of the infield, you have to like where this organization is going. O’Hearn could stumble after suddenly breaking out; Mountcastle should continue with business as usual after three consistent offensive seasons.
You can’t have a conversation about the Orioles infield without detailing All-Star catcher Adley Rustchman. The 2022 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up did not disappoint after a phenomenal first season. Greater playing time, off-days from behind the plate spent at DH, and improved plate discipline held his value above 5 WAR. A small bump up defensively should keep him there for 2024 too. Backup James McCann is what he is at this point – defensively solid and subpar with the bat. Immense fielding talent around the infield earns Baltimore a nice defensive upgrade.
Letting the Outfield Ride
When compared to the excitement buzzing around Baltimore’s young infielders, the veteran outfield trio of Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays seems downright boring. The irony is just a few short years ago the switch-hitting Mullins was the centerpiece of this roster. Flash forward to 2024 and the now lefty-only centerfielder sports an average bat with improved fielding skills. In the meantime, right fielder Anthony Santander has emerged as a plus-15% hitter with 30-homer power. Similarly, left fielder Hays sits on the good side of average both offensively and defensively.
It would appear that GM Mike Elias is taking the if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it approach to the outfield. The Mullins-Hays-Santander trio puts up average numbers across the board as an outfield unit. Not a strong suit, yet not a liability. Where things get interesting is depth. Sam Hilliard seems to be more of a placeholder than anything until left-handed hitting prospects Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser are ready for extended MLB action.
Cedric Mullins has room to improve over a middling 2023, primarily through a little positive BABIP regression. On the flip side, Austin Hays may be set up for some of the opposite. Considering how the infield personnel has been operating at such a high level, any offensive improvement likely comes from the outfielders – especially if an emerging talent like Kjerstad moves the needle. I’m holding tight on Baltimore’s offensive ratings through Spring Training but ready to make a small upgrade depending on the outfield’s form.
— Rotation —
This is a rotation in transition. A classic good news/bad news type of thing. John Means returns from Tommy John rehab but probably in low-to-mid 4.00s form. Kyle Gibson went to Detroit, leaving behind 33 starts and 192.0 innings. That’s a big gap to fill even if his volume came with a 4.73 ERA. Plus the dice roll known as Jack Flaherty is off the books. His first start with the O’s was damn good…then everything went to crap in Jack’s final six starts. Mind over matter isn’t always easy to implement. Nothing to fear though. Hours after the franchise’s majority ownership stake changed hands from the Angelos, a huge trade reeled in 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.
Burnes is the 30+ start horse this team needs. With him, there is more stability in the rotation plus upside for improvement over last season. Depth could be worse with Cole Irvin as a #6 starter – or #5 as the rotation shapes up today without Bradish. If he is worse than his mid-4.00 projections, Brandon Hyde has another lefty to replace him in Bruce Zimmermann. Think of it as two chances to get a viable second lefty starter worth 1 WAR. A healthy John Means and Dean Kremer combine for anywhere from 2 to 5 WAR if Kremer grinds out 30 starts again. Unfortunately, Means’ recovery is slightly behind schedule. Tyler Wells serves as the bridge until he’s ready to go, and could get tapped for spot duty throughout the season.
A New Ace in Town
Corbin Burnes gives the Orioles rotation a much-needed 180+ innings and 3-4 WAR. 2021 and the shortened 2020 campaign were monsters with big strikeout numbers. Even though he’s a sub-30% K guy now, sub-4.00 consistency with that much volume is pretty big for Baltimore. If it wasn’t for him, Kyle Bradish would have been a suitable ace in his third MLB season after making 7 more starts and 51 innings beyond his promising rookie season. Great location combined with a diverse arsenal is, in fact, ace stuff. The impressive part is how Bradish got stronger as the season went on. A second-half 2.34 ERA, 2.96 FIP/3.25 xFIP, and 6.04 innings/start would lead into a 3-WAR encore. However, a UCL sprain at the beginning of his throwing program in January jeopardizes his full value, especially the objective to build up for longer starts.
Fortunately, there’s a strong potential for Grayson Rodriguez to be this year’s Kyle Bradish. The prospect’s much-anticipated MLB debut was one of those the future looks real good, kid seasons. Hyde kept feeding Grayson starts and the skills kept developing as the season went on. .322 BABIP regression, plenty of ground balls, and good swing-and-miss stuff could play out very well with 5-7 more starts in 2024. Sub-4.00 production and more volume could get really close to 3 WAR. Internal growth with a nice spike from the outside is how Baltimore’s rotation keeps things rolling.
— Bullpen —
Losing closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery for the season is undoubtedly a massive blow to this top-five bullpen. Arguably the best reliever in baseball last year, Bautista was all but untouchable en route to an 8-2 record, 33 saves, and a 46.4% strikeout rate. He leaves behind 61.0 innings and an elite 2.8 WAR that accounted for 37% of the bullpen’s net value. It’s a stretch to call offseason free agent acquisition Craig Kimbrel a replacement for Felix per se. There’s no reasonable expectation for the 35-year-old veteran to reach the 2 WAR plateau even though he showed great durability with Philadelphia during one of his low-BABIP seasons.
Otherwise, the high-leverage righty-lefty tandem of Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe leads a reloaded Baltimore bullpen full of solid performers. Cano’s heavy sinker and impressive control racked up 1.7 WAR with a 2.11 ERA and 2.84 FIP/3.01 xFIP in a unit-leading 72.2 innings. His partner Coulombe played the lefty specialist role adeptly, notching a 2.81 ERA with 2.83 FIP/3.46 xFIP seemingly out of nowhere. Between those two and Felix Bautista, 5.9 WAR is a huge bar to clear in 2024. The bullpen’s year-over-year value lost from the top three could be anywhere from 3 to 4 wins.
At least Brandon Hyde is working with a group of known quantities to make up the remaining innings – and then some, if the rotation fails to repeat last year’s volume. The reality of middle relief and swingman types like Mike Baumann and Keegan Akin picking up a glut of lost value from high-leverage arms is extremely tough. Fortunately Cionel Perez, Jacob Webb, and company graded out positively to round out a top-tier relief unit. They’ll need to maintain this high level simply to stay on the right side of league-average.
Tampa Bay Rays 2024 Win Total: Open 85, Now 84.5
2023 Result: Over 88 (99-63 / Pythag: 100)
Tampa Bay’s scorching hot 16-3 start to the 2023 campaign was a boon to those bullish on their preseason win total. I was one of those Rays bulls. Although buyer’s remorse led me to say in the lead up to Opening Day, “the more I dug into the Rays’ outlook the less thrilled I was with this position“. Sometimes it’s good to be wrong. Unfortunately for the 2024 season and beyond, wunderkind shortstop Wander Franco faces serious legal trouble in the Dominican Republic and is not in the club’s plans. This roster is still talented and well managed, so will the Rays outpace their lowered expectations?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- R Pepiot (SP – RHP)
- J Caballero (INF)
- R Palacios (OF)
- P Maton (RP – RHP)
- A Rosario (INF)
Subtractions:
- R Stephenson (RP – RHP)
- J Diekman (RP – LHP)
- C Faucher (RP – RHP)
- V Brujan (INF)
- T Glasnow (SP – RHP)
- M Margot (OF)
- L Raley (OF)
- A Kittredge (RP – RHP)
- J Fleming (LHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 84 – 90
— Position Players —
Starting off as hot as the Rays did garnered a lot of attention for a quiet perennial AL East and World Series contender. Now the deck has been shuffled after the offense notched a franchise high water mark. How good was it? Tampa Bay’s park-adjusted offense ranked behind only the Atlanta Braves. Talk about good company to be in! Plenty of activity on the base paths (160 SB) helped fuel the league’s fourth-highest run production (860) behind an impressive 230 home runs. And it did not hurt to have an above-average defense supporting a top-five pitching staff.
W Franco / TBR Position Players (2023)
| WAR | wRC+ | Slash Line | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 32.9 | 118 | .260/.331/.445 | 8.3% | 23.0% |
| W Franco* | 4.6 | 127 | .281/.344/.475 | 8.6% | 14.1% |
The Rays pivoted to Plan B with Wander Franco vacating the shortstop position. Actually, they’re on to Plan C with Taylor Walls’ postseason hip surgery recovery pushing out his debut into late April. Although Franco wasn’t the team’s lone offensive powerhouse, you can see just how effective his bat was in Tampa Bay’s stacked lineup. Plus his 16 runs saved made up the bulk of their top-five shortstop fielding group. Acquiring Mariners’ utility infielder Jose Caballero is the Plan C that leaves Tyler Walls in his most useful position: infield utility man. (Who says you can never have enough flexibility?) The light-hitting Caballero may be a better hitter than Walls but expect at least a 25% offensive downgrade and small fielding decline at shortstop in lieu of Franco. 2024 is the inverse of 2023’s outlook at shortstop – about 2 wins to the downside.
Holding Down the Fort
Now for a change of pace away from the offseason drama. First baseman Yandy Diaz becomes even more critical given his immense value to the Rays lineup. Fortunately, Yandy’s groin is in good shape after supposedly dealing with an injury for most of 2023. But regression is the flip side to projecting past his career 4.7-WAR campaign. Reliable hitting (.330/.410/.522) meets fallout from a .367 BABIP to project over 1 win of decline. I’m a big fan of Diaz’ game and would like to be proven otherwise. After all, the guy is an on-base stud with a plus-35% baseline atop the batting order.
Other than at shortstop, stability across the infield bodes well for another run at the AL East crown. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is a firmly plus bat whose defense is less remarkable yet acceptable. That last statement underlines the importance of a healthy Taylor Walls – his positional flexibility and fielding supports Tampa Bay’s infield defense quite a bit despite having a weak bat. Unfortunately, Lowe often has a considerable hole against left-handed pitching (2023: .170/.286/.226) that someone like Walls, free agent Amed Rosario, or top prospect Curtis Mead can platoon away. Like many, I am skeptical of third baseman Isaac Paredes’ surge against right-handed pitching last year. Good defense and power should persist, though a 1-win markdown with a splits rebalance is warranted.
Changes behind the plate have the potential to turn around a bottom-half position group. The Christian Bethancourt/Francisco Mejia tandem is out after 27-year-old Rene Pinto’s second half emergence. Mejia is still around on a minor league contract this spring. Manager Kevin Cash will lean heavily on Pinto after flashing some pop and decent defense. Stretching him out to a 65/35 split likely waters down that power but should continue to grow his promising backstop skills. What about the 35% though? Right now, Alex Jackson is penciled in as the short end of the pair. Slight improvement at catcher mixed with an overall decline across the dirt comes to a 3-4 win reduction in preseason expectations. A modest negative at shortstop combines with small gains at catcher and little change from the outfield to keep the Rays overall defense close to neutral.
Making Hay in the Outfield
The tone of lowered expectations for the infield translates a little too smoothly to the outfield. To their credit, the outfield also carried top-five offensive marks with top-ten fielding. As for their 2024 outlook, well, losing Luke Raley’s plus-30% bat in exchange for Jose Caballero is a tough blow. If there’s any consolation to parting ways with the 2.6-WAR player, help at shortstop was a must. Plus Raley’s anticipated regression pencils him in for a 1+ WAR reduction that would have taken some zip out of the DH platoon with Harold Ramirez anyways. Of lesser impact, flexible outfielder Manuel Margot was swapped out for the Dodgers’ Jonny DeLuca at what should be an at-par move.
Otherwise, Tampa Bay offers quite a bit of roster continuity in the outfield. Charismatic left fielder Randy Arozarena has consistently delivered 3 WAR and plus-25% offense with defense suitable for a corner outfielder. Minor rebalancing between on-base and power numbers is justifiable in 2024 after a slight increase and decline, respectively, of those attributes. Unfortunately, less confidence in a repeat performance from right fielder Josh Lowe could result in greater than a 1-win markdown. The 26-year-old’s full-season breakout (.292/.335/.500) valued at 3.8 WAR is saddled with a .357 BABIP. However, Josh’s prospect profile as a high-OBP player with speed and sneaky pop softens that blow to a degree.
Having a suitable defensive replacement in center after the Kevin Kiermaier era in St. Petersburg ended is a relief. Jose Siri doesn’t quite have the same upper-echelon fielding as Kiermaier but it’s anything but a liability. In my opinion, Siri’s power surge is something to be skeptical of. Coming back down to earth after slugging .494 carries about a coin flip probability that would cost around 1 WAR similar to Josh Lowe. “Emergency” outfielder Harold Ramirez figures to play a smaller role in the DH platoon with the young left-handed infielder Jonathan Aranda taking a more prominent role. Another step forward by Aranda mitigates Ramirez’ decline – a quietly critical factor in softening Tampa Bay’s landing. Losing the big numbers from Raley and Franco plus adjusting for their big guns’ regression leads to a 5-6% offensive downgrade with greater emphasis against left-handed pitching.
— Rotation —
There’s rarely a lack of talent in the Rays’ rotation, although stability is not necessarily a calling card. Significant injuries have claimed arms like Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer in years past. Now Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs have been shelved for large portions of the 2023-2024 seasons. Most disappointingly, McClanahan’s 2022 breakout proclaimed ace for the foreseeable future until Tommy John surgery took him out of play through 2024. Rasmussen and Springs also popped with 3-WAR campaigns in 2022 and missed most of last year but are expected to return for the second half.
As you probably already know, Tampa Bay’s starting pitching corps is one of the MLB’s more unconventional groups. Kevin Cash continuing to embrace the opener as a changeup to opposing lineups brought the likes of Shawn Armstrong, Jalen Beeks, and Calvin Faucher into this role with decent success last year. The trio made 18 short “starts” worth nearly 1 win of value. Beeks and Faucher are elsewhere, while their most productive opener Shawn Armstrong remains. His 0.00 ERA and 1.84 FIP/2.94 xFIP as opener blended with 33 relief appearances for a substantial 1.3-WAR season. A mid-3.00s outlook isn’t quite as sexy, yet still solid enough for quality middle relief work. Good command and decent swing-and-miss rates mark the mid-3.00s profiles of Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen – a pair of wild cards that Cash can employ in a variety of roles upon their return.
Assembling a Cohesive Group
Aces Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow are out of the picture for 2024 as the latter was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player trade graded as an “A” for both clubs. Both front-line starters made 21 starts, combining for 235.0 innings and 5.0 WAR. The Rays sold Glasnow at peak health after four seasons of frustration for everyone involved. In return, 26-year-old right-hander Ryan Pepiot comes to St. Petersburg as a low-4.00s guy who will be stretched out well beyond his cumulative MLB experience. Tempered expectations for Pepiot and Zack Littell as works-in-progress should still yield 2+ WAR despite a range of projections for these untested rotation pieces.
Without their former aces, the Rays turn to last year’s unsung hero Zach Eflin. The ground baller with exceptional control posted a career-high 177.2 innings of 3.50-ERA ball. I understand the skepticism behind the former Philly starter’s K rate spike to 26.5% after his sinker and curveball hit new effectiveness highs. Instead, another mid-3.00s season in the 3-4 WAR range makes plenty of sense. Eflin and trade deadline acquisition Aaron Civale are expected to carry the majority of the rotation’s workload. Expect Civale to rebound from a rough introduction in Tampa Bay (5.36 ERA) unduly affected by a wicked .370 BABIP. His strikeout and walk rates were on point in the second half despite yielding so many runs. Less innings and fewer strikeouts than Eflin equate to a complementary 2+ WAR projection.
Trial by fire can be productive when throwing your next big thing to the wolves. 22-year-old Taj Bradley’s debut showed a ton of promise despite rough results, to say the least. 5.59 ERA, 1.98 HR/9 innings, and a 46.4% hard contact rate are tough pills to swallow. Temper that with a 28.0% strikeout rate and 4.79 FIP/3.83 xFIP in addition to the kid’s general inexperience though. You could see the raw talent by watching his starts – learning to be a major league pitcher is what comes with experience. Bradley will get his chance to carry weight as a 1+ WAR starter with upside. Time will tell if he matures rapidly in this second season, as the Rays need him to produce in the absence of their heavy hitters. Getting some arms back in the second half should help keep this year’s rotation within a few wins of 2023’s group.
— Bullpen —
Kevin Cash used a ton of relievers to make it through the 2023 season. To be exact, 17 pitched 10+ innings – 12 of which worked 25+. Stable late-inning arms Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche return after their 160.1 innings amassed 2.8 of the bullpen’s 5.1 WAR. Granted, everyone in the high-leverage group – including the departed Robert Stephenson – was not immune to letdown situations, contributing to a whopping 29 blown saves. Yet the Rays bullpen was solidly a top-third group with plenty of optimism for the year ahead.
Prototypical fastball/slider closer Pete Fairbanks has steadily increased his effectiveness after four seasons with the club. 49 appearances with a 37.0% strikeout rate and 48.9% ground balls kept his 2.58 ERA on pace with 2.70 FIP/2.83 xFIP, pointing to another sub-3.00 season with a 1-WAR floor. Cash uses Fairbanks selectively to mitigate injury risk so projecting for greater usage in 2024 could incorrectly skew your ratings. Jason Adam has closer experience the last couple seasons, in part due to Fairbanks’ injuries, but isn’t the most trustworthy ninth inning guy in the group. A 66.7% conversion rate in 30 opportunities since 2022 is a concern for the mid-3.00s swing-and-miss righty.
Workhorses Colin Poche, Shawn Armstrong, and Kevin Kelly provide sub-4.00 bulk. Plus Tampa Bay gains former Astros high-leverage guy Phil Maton – another down to business righty who worked three straight 60+ inning seasons. Expect another “power in numbers” type of season from this well managed club that can attack most late-game scenarios with a good mix of righties and lefties. Swingman Tyler Alexander joins southpaws Poche and Garrett Cleavinger to balance out the Rays’ relief unit. Losing the sub-3.00 ERA seasons of Robert Stephenson and Jake Diekman will erode a bit of the bullpen’s effectiveness though. Less high-leverage depth makes a negative impact, just not enough to knock them off as a top-ten unit.
Toronto Blue Jays 2024 Win Total: Open 87
2023 Win Total: Under 93.5 (89-73 / Pythag: 89)
A Wild Card round reverse sweep at the hands of Minnesota wasn’t quite what Toronto had in mind this time last year. Most would agree that 2023 was a season that underwhelmed expectations. Not just in the betting markets though as the Jays’ faithful especially had their hearts set on more. The bottom line was the club’s inability to stay afloat in the division. Toronto’s 21-31 record vs. the AL East says a lot – and the division isn’t easing up any in 2024.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- I Kiner-Falefa (INF)
- Yariel Rodriguez (RHP)
- J Turner (DH/INF)
- E Escobar (INF)
Subtractions:
- M Chapman (3B)
- B Belt (1B)
- W Merrifield (2B/OF)
- J Hicks (RP – RHP)
- H Ryu (SP – LHP)
- J Jackson (RP – RHP)
- A Bass (RP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 83 – 93
— Position Players —
Disappointing is one way to describe the Blue Jays offense last year. Some falloff was foreseen, just not necessarily in the way I projected it to decline. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman were, in fact, able to stay on the field and the team did not suffer dramatically against left-handed pitching. (Double wrong.) The issue turned out to be the inability to keep up with the league as a whole. Sure, the Jays swiped 32 more bases from 2023 to 2022 – but that uptick hardly moved the needle compared to many teams. Overall declines became exaggerated as other lineups moved in the opposite direction, sending Toronto’s offense further down the pecking order.
TOR Offensive Comparison w/ League Rankings (2022 – 2023)
| wRC+ | R | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 107 (8th) | 746 (14th) | 188 (16th) | .256 (8th) | .329 (7th) | .417 (13th) |
| 2022 | 118 (2nd) | 775 (4th) | 200 (7th) | .264 (1st) | .329 (3rd) | .431 (3rd) |
Rebounding from a middling offensive year gets tougher after losing a few cogs. Third baseman Matt Chapman’s plus-10% bat and strong fielding gives way to some combination of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and flexible bench player Santiago Espinal. Although IKF doesn’t yield a ton of ground from Chapman’s excellent fielding (12 DRS), he brings a 25% lighter bat to Toronto’s lineup. Left-handed Brandon Belt’s platoon bat in the DH spot started slowly but finished the season with a head of steam good enough for a 146 wRC+ against righties. The Jays turn to 39-year-old free agent Justin Turner to fill the spot on more of a daily basis. It’s a tradeoff between Belt’s conditional effectiveness for Turner’s well-rounded, marginally-plus bat.
Toronto also let light-hitting veteran Whit Merrifield walk in free agency. Whit spent half the season at second base and the other half in left field, posting a respectable .272/.318/.382 line and swiping 26 bags. Fielding was fine at both positions but he certainly leaves room for offensive improvement. Second base still figures to be a fluid situation with Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, and Santiago Espinal in the mix. 25-year-old rookie Schneider is the most promising hitter of the group after slashing .276/.404/.603 after his August call-up. “Small sample” plus .369 BABIP point more towards a plus-10% bat in an expanded role, joining Biggio as a 25%+ strikeout hitter with decent on-base ability.
Vacating left field is less of a concern with Daulton Varsho on the roster. As many expected, the Blue Jays defense benefitted from new blood in the outfield: lefties Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. These two led an elite outfield fielding group part of a top-five team defense. Unfortunately, Varsho must have left his power in Phoenix. The game plan for a 2024 bounceback is to get back to “hit it hard, not high” and continue to play stellar defense in left and center field, as needed. Daulton can spare a touch of regression there as long as a 10-20% improvement with the bat comes to fruition. That takes the edge off of what could be a 3+ win loss with the above roster changes.
Restarting the Internal Engine
Year-over-year improvement on an individual player level was scarce. Outside of the contributions from last season’s newcomers Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier, Blue Jays hitters failed to impress. Kiermaier’s best offensive season in over five years leads to a 10% “back to reality” tax although most signs point to another strong year in center field. Plus George Springer found a good home as a corner outfielder alongside Varsho and Kiermaier where he can still produce positive fielding grades.
Toronto’s defensive strength up the middle extends to one of the better catching tandems in the majors. Alejandro Kirk was phenomenal behind the plate as his role continued to expand with bat-first Danny Jansen in tow. A capable corps of infielders keeps the Jays in the top third overall defensively – even without Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman. As 2023 showed us, a Toronto club without firepower is bound to struggle in the surging AL East.
TOR Key Hitters, 2022 vs. 2023
| ’22 wRC+ | ’22 Line | ’22 HR | ’23 wRC+ | ’23 Line | ’23 HR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Guerrero Jr. | 133 | .274/.339/.480 | 32 | 118 | .264/.345/.444 | 26 | |
| D Jansen | 141 | .260/.339/.516 | 15 | 116 | .228/.312/.474 | 17 | |
| A Kirk | 129 | .285/.372/.415 | 14 | 96 | .250/.334/.358 | 8 | |
| G Springer | 133 | .267/.342/.472 | 25 | 104 | .258/.327/.405 | 21 |
2024 sounds like a good rebound year for these Blue Jays lineup staples. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in great shape this spring, backing up optimistic projections to return to 2022 levels or better. Manager John Schneider says George Springer will stay in the leadoff spot as a nod to a small 5-10% improvement. Catcher Danny Jansen peaked in 2022 and comes with mixed expectations around last year’s production. His partner Alejandro Kirk has a strong probability to match Jansen coming from a lower low.
The last pillar of the lineup, shortstop Bo Bichette has the distinction of the most productive hitter still on the team. He failed to appear in 159 games for the first time in three seasons yet still weighed in at a position player-leading 3.8 WAR. We’ll see if Bo’s offseason regimen can keep him on the field and lead this team to the postseason. I’m less bullish on Toronto’s full season rebound than their stabilizing after last year’s big fall. Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt are not fully accounted for, making the climb back that much steeper. Look for infield prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez to get their call-ups at some point.
— Rotation —
2024 looks to be a rinse and repeat season for the rotation sans Hyun Jin Ryu. Toronto returns four 30+ start pitchers who compiled 742.1 innings: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi. This veteran core all turned in sub-4.00 ERAs with help from walk rates no higher than 7.2%. Ryu’s age and injury concerns ultimately led to a return home to Korea after just 11 starts.
Ace Kevin Gausman’s third straight 30+ start season shows impressive durability and dependability with an average 5.97 innings/start. The 33-year-old’s notorious splitter wasn’t quite as effective as in recent seasons but he made up for it with a heavy dose of fastballs. A whiff rate downtick and greater hard contact helped earn mid-3.00 projections for this season that could jeopardize a third straight 5+ WAR campaign. With dependability as a key theme for the Jays rotation comes Jose Berrios and his fifth straight (non-2020) season making 32 starts. 2023 was a legitimate rebound season for the 30-year-old after stumbling to a 5.23 ERA the year prior. His 3.65 ERA (3.99 FIP/4.01 xFIP) is replicable if Berrios’ fastball, sinker, and slider resurgence persists.
Chris Bassitt’s first career 200-inning season came at a great time for the Blue Jays. He fits the club’s ground ball pitcher mold with a heavy slider and broad arsenal that minimized hard contact once again. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball/slider rebound wasn’t quite as effective as Bassitt’s but good enough for a #4 starter. Kikuchi does not go as deep into games as the others; his low-4.00s baseline is decent. Injury obviously threatens the prospect of another cohesive season from these four starters, otherwise they pencil out to a 10-13 WAR expectation in 2024. That’s well within striking distance of last year’s production.
Inflating the Fifth Wheel
So it all comes down to depth and finding a reliable #5. Trevor Richards and Mitch White are stashed in the bullpen as spot start candidates. But it’s Alek Manoah that the club needs a return to rookie form from. Spring Training did not start well for the 26-year-old righty whose third MLB season was nothing short of a disaster. Sub-.250 BABIPs in his first two seasons turned into a pumpkin last year (.308), resulting in a brutal 5.87 ERA. No relief with the 6.01 FIP/5.85 xFIP either. Manoah completely lost his feel for the pitches that made him a rookie breakout. Hard contact spiked nearly 13% as his walk rate jumped over 7%. A realistic bounceback expectation for Alek is 20+ starts of mid-4.00s effectiveness.
But all that goes out the window if he’s lost it mentally. This is where someone like Yariel Rodriguez or Toronto’s #1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann may need to step onto the scene. Rodriguez carries mid-4.00s projections after cutting his professional teeth in Japan. 2022 was spent in the bullpen so his MLB role is still unknown. The tall 21-year-old left-hander Tiedemann should get the call at some point in 2024 but will it be too late if Manoah can’t get his act together? Finding the right piece to round out the rotation is a small part of protecting this group from losing too much value compared to 2023. My bigger concern is Toronto’s reliance on their top four starters being iron men again. It’s tough to find much upside over last season’s production – downside momentum is the bigger issue in my opinion.
— Bullpen —
The rotation’s ability to consistency work past the fifth inning took a lot off of the bullpen’s shoulders. Toronto’s relievers ranked top ten in most key metrics, led by closer Jordan Romano and his 36 saves. Although his fastball didn’t quite have its usual effectiveness, Romano still delivered a 29.0% strikeout rate and shrunk hard contact by close to 9%. I get mixed signals when breaking down his profile after an uncharacteristically high .292 BABIP and declining ground ball rate (36.5%). Plenty of whiffs and other key metrics provide a mid-3.00s floor for Toronto’s native son.
Romano is part of an experienced high-leverage nucleus with Jimi Garcia, former Mariner Erik Swanson, and Tim Mayza. Swanson’s first season with the Blue Jays produced a robust 66.2 innings with a 3.57 K/BB rate behind a filthy splitter. Negotiating spikes in both ground balls (39.6%) and hard contact (40.4%) makes him tough to project for 2024. Jimi Garcia’s bout with a career-high .339 BABIP and 45.5% ground ball rate left him on the wrong side of variance – a contrast to left-hander Tim Mayza’s .331 BABIP that hardly punished him. Their fates diverged as the season went on; Mayza skated away cleanly with 1.52 ERA, 2.60 FIP/2.98 xFIP while Garcia suffered a 4.09 ERA well above 3.39 FIP/3.14 xFIP.
Projecting relievers is hard enough, let alone rebalancing key contributors with these mixed messages. Toronto’s accomplished high-leverage half stands to lose a win as they age; the bullpen as a whole is still firmly above average. Swingman types Trevor Richards and Mitch White provide length at 4.00+ effectiveness. Southpaw Genesis Cabrera generally struggles with command and must shake off an ugly 47.1% hard contact rate to be effective this season. And all signs point to Chad Green being a contributor – perhaps even a sub-4.00 one at that. If all else fails, there’s plenty of depth in line behind them. Nate Pearson and Zach Pop have plenty of experience alongside prospects Hagen Danner and Yosevar Zulueta. Depth plus experience keeps this group one of the better bullpens in the majors.
New York Yankees 2024 Win Total: Open 89, Now 93.5
2023 Result: Under 95 (82-80 / Pythag: 78)
What happens when one of MLB’s most decorated franchises turns in a total no-show performance? Get on the phone and make some deals. Gerrit Cole’s phenomenal Cy Young season aside, the Yankees were a massive disappointment to their fanbase as well as long futures bettors. Falling short of their win total by 13 games was enough to spur ownership and the front office to trade a ton of pitching talent to the Padres for superstar outfielder Juan Soto. Will this spark be enough to vault the Yanks back into the 2024 AL East conversation?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- A Verdugo (OF)
- J Soto (OF)
- T Grisham (OF)
- V Gonzales (RP – LHP)
- O Gonzales (OF)
- L Weaver (SP – RHP)
- M Stroman (SP – RHP)\
- C Ferguson (RP – LHP)
Subtractions:
- D German (SP – RHP)
- I Kiner-Falefa (INF)
- W Peralta (RP – LHP)
- L Severino (SP – RHP)
- J Cordero (RP – RHP)
- A Abreu (RP – RHP)
- G Weissert (RP – RHP)
- M King (SP – RHP)
- D Thorpe (SP – RHP)
- J Brito (RP – RHP)
- R Vasquez (SP – RHP)
- K Higashioka (C)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 92 – 98
— Position Players —
General Manager Brian Cashman channeled some late-1990s mojo, pulling the trigger on a blockbuster deal that reeled in of the league’s best hitters, Juan Soto. December’s seven-player trade also snagged outfielder Trent Grisham at the expense of four pitchers and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Soto’s calling card as a super-disciplined, powerful hitter is a huge lift to the Yankees’ worst offense in close to a decade. The team’s next-to-worst .227 batting average was extremely uncharacteristic, less so their ninth-highest 219 home runs. News flash: you have to get guys on to knock them in.
As if the prolific lefty with the short porch thing wasn’t enough, adding a .400+ on-base guy to a lineup that finished fourth-worst in the on-base department (.304) checks a few boxes on the club’s to-do list. He can’t do it alone though. The Yanks’ offense lost around 20% between 2022 and 2023 due, in part, to Aaron Judge missing close to 150 ABs. Although respect is due to second baseman Gleyber Torres for being the beacon of consistency. His defense reverted back to the rougher years at shortstop but the kid cranked out a 123 wRC+ with improved plate discipline. An increase of 100 PAs over 2022’s workload and 25 extra homers surely don’t hurt either. Turns out, Torres was pretty much the only Yankees’ hitter who did not lose ground offensively. And he’s not expected to let up in 2024.
Key NYY Hitters, Offensive Comparison (2022 vs. 2023)
| ’22 PA | ’22 K% | ’22 wRC+ | ’23 PA | ’23 K% | ’23 wRC+ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Judge | 696 | 25.1% | 209 | 458 | 28.4% | 174 | |
| A Rizzo | 548 | 18.4% | 134 | 421 | 23.0% | 100 | |
| J Donaldson | 546 | 27.1% | 98 | 120 | 26.7% | 75 | |
| DJ LeMahieu | 541 | 13.1% | 118 | 562 | 22.2% | 101 | |
| I Kiner-Falefa | 531 | 13.6% | 86 | 361 | 19.4% | 82 | |
| G Stanton | 452 | 30.3% | 116 | 415 | 29.9% | 89 | |
| J Trevino | 353 | 17.6% | 92 | 168 | 13.1% | 58 |
Aaron Judge stepping back from an MVP-winning 62-homer performance was in the cards. Yet “slipping” to a still-elite 174 wRC+ and 37 homers ain’t half bad. But his time lost to injury was arguably more crucial than losing 35% offensively. The good news: Judge has a 5-WAR floor barring another big dose of lost time. To put things into perspective, he accounted for nearly half of the entire Yankee outfield’s home run total. This was a group that ranked dead last in batting average and on-base percentage – even with Aaron’s whopping .267/.406/.613 line.
Trading for even more left-handed outfielders Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham is consistent with Cashman’s plan of attack. Especially ones that can play defense. The Yankees must rebound from having the MLB’s second-worst defensive outfield. Soto doesn’t help the cause, but a net positive outfield is possible this year with Verdugo, Grisham, and utility man Oswaldo Cabrera in the mix. Aaron Judge was way off of his typical fielding contributions, undoubtedly due to a toe injury that cut into his usual range. Anything positive out of a healthy Judge is icing on New York’s improved defensive cake.
Looking Up In the Infield
New York lacked any sort of continuity in the lineup outside of DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe – the only players to appear in more than 115 games. They’ll occupy most of the infield again alongside first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who looks good for Opening Day after battling post-concussion syndrome. Expect grizzled veterans Rizzo and LeMahieu to add value over last season; the former being on the field more and both backing off of career-worst strikeout rates. Volpe’s rookie campaign left room for improvement (.209/.283/.383, 27.8% K) but his defense at shortstop was promising. The 22-year-old was all but an everyday player for Aaron Boone and should juice up his offense by 10% or so with better plate discipline and .259 BABIP tailwinds. Throw Torres’ contribution in there and the Yankees’ infield should be a couple wins better than in 2023.
Turnover behind the plate creates a prime opportunity for top prospect Austin Wells to take a more prominent role. Off to San Diego goes Kyle Higashioka after leading the catcher group in games worked and framing last season. 24-year-old Wells can revitalize one of the worst hitting units in baseball while fielding the position well, potentially replacing Higgy’s value with a more bat-first presence. Plus the Yankees still have a great defensive backstop in Jose Trevino to split time with him as a lefty/righty duo. An uptick at the plate after struggling through a .221 BAIBP and career-low .210 average should help deliver an extra win of value with Ben Rortvedt in support.
Young utility players Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza struggled mightily with their bats. Modest improvement adds another log or two onto the fire. Hell, even Giancarlo Stanton struggled with a .210 BABIP that left the slugger with an anemic .191/.275/.420 line. Two straight years of significant decline calls for a league-average bat with upside if he stabilizes. The Yankees have positive regression potential throughout their lineup. With the infusion of left-handed hitters, they should reclaim their position as one of the best against right-handed pitching.
— Rotation —
The highlight of the 2023 was obviously Gerrit Cole’s AL Cy Young Award-winning performance. Beyond him, things were pretty grim. It wasn’t just the offense that hit its lowest point in nearly a decade. Even with Cole’s heavyweight 33 starts and 209.0 innings, New York’s rotation graded out well below average. To the starters’ partial defense, the injury bug sidelined Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon for most of the season. When healthy, neither was overly impressive though – Cortes finished with a 4.97 ERA, not quite as salty as Rodon’s 6.85.
Let’s assume that rebound candidates Cortes and Rodon will stay healthy enough to make 75% of their starts. Not only did Nestor make just 12 starts 2022’s .232 BABIP bit back as his fastball fizzled. Projecting him between those far-end seasons gives around a 2-WAR value. Carlos’ late debut in pinstripes delivered no relief to the team as everything crumbled on its way to the season’s finish. Don’t ask me what happened to his stuff. Quite the struggle to put hitters away – or keep them in the yard, for that matter. Since Rodon has never been known as a workhorse, my handicap effectively caps him at 150 innings. Turning a -0.2 WAR season into 2 wins is doable unless he’s completely lost his goods.
How About an Encore?
It’s unlikely that Gerrit Cole will carry more than half of the rotation’s value again in 2024. But the 6x All-Star is going to give them innings, and damn good ones at that. New York’s ace likely gravitates back towards the 3.60 xFIP underbelly of last season’s 2.63 ERA, which carries a 3-WAR floor. Throw in 150 innings from free agent Marcus Stroman and these four can comfortably account for 9 wins of value. Stro hasn’t touched the 30-start plateau since 2021, so he joins Cortes and Rodon as guys who will each leave 5-7 starts for depth pitchers to piece together. Fortunately, the righty’s strength as ground ball pitcher plays well into a good infield defense behind him.
With Domingo German gone in free agency and Michael King and Jhony Brito shipped to the Padres in the Soto trade, depth becomes an even more pressing issue. Those three absorbed 41 starts last year of widely-varying effectiveness that are still unaccounted for. Fortunately, Clarke Schmidt has fully graduated to the rotation after breaking out with a 32-start, 1.8-WAR full season as a starter. The 28-year-old successfully implemented a cutter to attack left-handed hitters with but still projects as a low-to-mid 4.00s arm with middling strikeout ability.
On paper, that leaves the rotation about 30 starts short of a full season. Mid-season acquisitions are a possibility and Luke Weaver looks to be slated for a swingman role out of the bullpen. Plus the Yankees’ system has interesting starting pitching prospect depth in Triple-A. Luis Gil and Clayton Beeter are names thrown around as being ready to fill in the gaps. Also, keep an eye on Will Warren’s trajectory in Spring Training – he could be another young arm ready for MLB reps at some point. Depth is a minor concern for an experienced rotation on the rebound set to add 2-4 WAR over last year.
— Bullpen —
Things weren’t as dire in the bullpen at least. Led by closer Clay Holmes, Yankees relievers posted a league-low 3.34 ERA and league-highest ground ball rate (50.6%). The durable sinker/slider righty blended the best of both worlds en route to 24 saves in 66 appearances. He’s a perennial 60%+ ground ball pitcher with two straight seasons holding a 3+ K/BB ratio. Flanking him are Jonathan Loaisiga, Tommy Kahnle, Ian Hamilton, and left-hander Caleb Ferguson – all of whom rate right around or below the 4.00 mark. Ferguson came into his own last year with the Dodgers before being traded to the Yankees. He’s one to keep an eye on after producing a solid 3.43 ERA and 3.34 FIP/3.68 xFIP .
Two pitchers mentioned earlier as rotational depth losses also impact the bullpen’s complexion. Highly effective relief work from Jhony Brito and Michael King leave a 1.8-WAR gap. Both were called upon regularly to work multiple innings, ultimately accounting for 52 appearances and 102.0 innings. Plus Wandy Peralta and Jimmy Cordero are no longer on the team to replace their 93 collective appearances. The Yankees have a decent stable of relievers to soak up that volume although Scott Effross will be on IL for a while after back surgery in mid-February. There’s no glaring weaknesses with the 2024 edition yet there isn’t anything in particular that stands out – a combination for a league-average type of unit potentially worth 1-2 wins less than last season.
Boston Red Sox 2024 Win Total: Open 82.5, Now 77.5
2023 Result: Over 77.5 (78-84 / Pythag: 81)
More often than not, there’s one preseason future position that I sweat out until the final weekend of the season. It came down to game 162 with the Cubs in 2022 and the Reds in 2021. Last year, Boston was the guilty party for the late-season sweat. Their deja vu 78-win season was just good enough to clear their win total, yet bad enough to finish in the division’s cellar. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom was ushered out the door in favor of Craig Breslow who promptly began the bloodletting. Unfortunately, the 2024 AL East looks to be even more competitive with a Yankees rebound and not much leeway from the others.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- I Campbell (RP – RHP)
- G Weissert (RP – RHP)
- T O’Neill (OF)
- L Giolito (SP – RHP)
- V Grissom (INF)
- L Hendriks (RP – LHP)
Subtractions:
- A Duvall (OF)
- J Turner (1B/DH)
- J Paxton (SP – LHP)
- J Rodriguez (RP – LHP)
- R Bleier (RP – LHP)
- C Kluber (RHP)
- L Urias (INF)
- A Verdugo (OF)
- N Robertson (RP – RHP)
- C Sale (SP – LHP)
- C Arroyo (INF)
- J Schreiber (RP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 77 – 87
— Rotation —
As the Red Sox rotation became less defined after the 2021 season, performance deteriorated. It wasn’t that long ago that Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez headed up a stalwart group but those days are long gone. There’s been enough searching for answers the last couple years to go around and this season is no exception. So let’s start asking questions. #1 comes from the outside in: Is Lucas Giolito going to get back on track?
Lucas Giolito, 2023 Season by Half
| Starts | IP | HR | ERA | xFIP | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 21 | 112.1 | 17 | 3.45 | 4.29 | 25.3% | 7.4% |
| 2nd Half* | 12 | 72.0 | 24 | 7.13 | 4.70 | 26.2% | 11.7% |
As of March 5th, the answer to the above question is a thunderous NO. A UCL tear squashed Lucas Giolito’s 2024 rebound – and Boston’s hope for greater rotation stability. It’s a tough blow for the guy after going through a tough divorce with his longtime sweetheart that started during the 2023 All-Star Break. I still left Gio’s first half/second half table in here to show what a change of scenery and life situation could do to revert him back to prominence. (Enough editing was done with his injury coming several days before publishing this.) But like the Red Sox, we move on and find the next man up.
Another question is whether Nick Pivetta can hold his position in the rotation this year. Again, this group needs innings. Nick shuttling back and forth between a routine starting job, multi-inning reliever, and everything in-between led to a roller coaster ride of effectiveness. It goes without saying that Pivetta avoiding another slow start puts the rotation on a better foundation.
Nick Pivetta, 2023 Season by Period
| K% | BB% | ERA | FIP/xFIP | BABIP | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP thru 5/16 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 6.30 | 5.73/4.83 | .309 | 40.0 |
| RP thru 7/25 | 36.0% | 9.6% | 1.98 | 2.55/3.13 | .188 | 41.0 |
| SP/RP thru 9/2 | 34.1% | 8.3% | 5.46 | 4.76/3.18 | .309 | 31.1 |
| SP thru 9/29 | 33.0% | 4.3% | 2.37 | 2.73/2.80 | .254 | 30.1 |
| SEASON | 31.2% | 8.5% | 4.04 | 3.96/3.55 | .268 | 142.2 |
That said, it’s getting closer to make-or-break time for the organization’s here and now pitchers. So who makes and who breaks in 2024? Garrett Whitlock’s rough year knocked him out of contention for an Opening Day rotation spot until Giolito’s season-ending injury. A nod to Whitlock’s .340 BABIP and a 1.41-run lower xFIP than ERA gives you the impression that he’ll plug the hole decently after Boston cashed him in as an insurance policy for the rotation. One lingering deficiency that Lucas Giolito could have helped address is volume after Sox starters compiled the fourth-lowest 774.1 innings in 2023. This becomes a tougher hurdle to clear with Garrett being pulled into the rotation sooner than later.
Former Sox top prospect Brayan Bello stretched out to a full 28-start workload, making his mark as an effective ground ball pitcher. But as good as his sinker was, the slider fell as short. Another full season with a mid-4.00s floor keeps him in the 1.5-win ballpark. Take another small step forward and he could be another win more valuable. 27-year-olds Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford both delivered 20+ starts worth 3.4 WAR. Now they have a good opportunity to cement their positions in the rotation. Crawford projects to stabilize in the mid-4.00s after making up for a tougher 2022 rookie campaign.
Tanner Houck’s total effectiveness as a ground ball pitcher has waned after failing to keep up 2021’s 30.5% strikeout rate. Somehow he still gets whiffs but the Ks aren’t following suit. Houck has to show that he can get into and through the sixth inning more frequently – one reason for some rumblings that he’ll be moved into a relief role. Put the puzzle pieces together and I still have plenty of questions. Variance to the Red Sox’ win total starts about 1 win below the 2023 rotation’s value and goes up to 1-2 additional wins.
— Bullpen —
Innings. What the starters didn’t eat got sent down the line for a long list of relievers to tackle. Guys like the aforementioned Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock joined forces with Josh Winckowski and Chris Murphy to pick up multiple innings a little too routinely. High-leverage relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Josh Winckowski return after combining for a stout 3.4 WAR of the bullpen’s 4.7. Jansen’s setup men are capable sub-4.00 relievers but Winck’s younger arm carried more bulk out of necessity. His running mates are inching closer to the age of 40, after all.
This unit goes from thin to dangerously thin without Garrett Whitlock. Especially after Boston traded off half of a decent righty/lefty middle relief pair of John Schreiber and Brennan Bernardino. Instead, the club goes younger on the righty side with someone like Isaiah Campbell or Justin Slaten. On the other end, Bernardino seized his opportunity to stick in the majors after years and years of trying to get there. However, the 32-year-old is just one of two left-handers in the bullpen assuming Joely Rodriguez is signed. Accomplished southpaw Liam Hendriks is clearly more of a 2025 play with him unlikely to return before August. Impactful depth is lacking so I’ll keep the bullpen clinging on around league-average – but another season of excessive workload waters down their overall effectiveness.
— Position Players —
Boston’s lineup transformation continued this offseason by letting veterans Adam Duvall and Justin Turner walk in free agency then trading Alex Verdugo to AL East rival New York. About the only impact position player left from the 2022 roster is third baseman Rafael Devers. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing considering where the franchise sits in the division’s pecking order. The Red Sox hit decently in aggregate (.258/.324/.424) while being below average in home runs and stolen bases. That offensive performance was a good point to grow from even if it lacked top-end punch to overcome the rotation’s woes.
How does the new front office plan to replace three of the Red Sox’ most productive position players and their 5.1 WAR? Turner and Duvall clocked in as +15% hitters without much defensive value. That’s especially true with Turner spending 88% of his games at DH or first base. Verdugo, on the other hand, held an average offensive profile but buoyed the outfield with great fielding (9 DRS, 10.6 zone rating). Where do things go if the outfield was only a league average fielding group with Verdugo in it?
A Reimagined Outfield
Alex Cora indicated that Masataka Yoshida is expected to spend most of his time as DH. Masa’s MLB debut was good enough to garner a few Rookie of the Year votes, but those votes surely weren’t based on his glove work. Removing him as a liability while keeping his bat in the lineup makes sense. Yoshida trades some of Turner’s power for a touch more consistency despite tailing off in the second half. That makes room for rookie left-handed hitter Wilyer Abreu and trusted platoon bat Rob Refsnyder in right field. Abreu projects as a slightly above-average bat with neutral fielding as a corner outfielder. It could be worse sharing time with Refsnyder, playing to each other’s handedness strengths.
Boston needs to keep Jarren Duran’s bat in the lineup after breaking out last season with a .295/.346/.482 line and 24 stolen bases. Turf toe cut his season about a month short but Duran appears to be good to go this spring. He’s another left-handed hitter who did not show a massive dropoff when facing southpaws. However, his outlook is about 20% less impactful after factoring in a massive .381 BABIP. His negative fielding values are likely to persist in center field – a largely unsettled position last season. Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela is the one to improve this spot but needs polishing before making an impact at the MLB level.
Former Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill is an interesting replacement for Alex Verdugo in the corner. He’s been called out for lack of hustle and failed to play more than 100 games since his huge 2021 season. Plus-10% overall offensive upside and 20+ home run power is what makes O’Neill attractive though. If the Sox played their cards right, they’ve traded defensive for power in a value-neutral swap. I expect the 2024 outfield to be slightly down defensively, though the team’s overall fielding should improve with gains in the middle infield.
Getting Settled In On the Dirt
Third baseman Rafael Devers is the undisputed bedrock of the Red Sox lineup. The 27-year-old turned in a strong but slightly down season with 33 home runs and 100 RBI packed into a .271/.351/.500 slash line. He hit the ball harder than ever and projects for a 5-10% uptick worth 1+ WAR of additional value over 2023. Plus things are looking up across the diamond as first baseman Triston Casas found his groove. Fielding is not his forte but hitting sure is – neither corner is manned with plus defenders. By June, the big left-handed hitter started to mash and ultimately challenged Devers as one of the most productive bats in the lineup. Casas’ 2024 outlook spans from a 1-WAR improvement by translating last summer’s progress through 2024 all the way down to a 15% dropoff.
Fortunately, Boston’s middle infield picture is clearer than it was last spring. Trevor Story’s fielding at short was surprisingly on point even after an extensive elbow surgery recovery. A healthier season will upgrade the shortstop position defensively and Story’s bat has nowhere to go but up after a small-sample .203/.250/.316. Double play partner Vaughn Grissom came to town in the Chris Sale trade with Atlanta, potentially stabilizing the league’s second-worst second base group. The Sox desperately need Grissom to stay healthy and productive after their mix-and-match approach resulted in a -0.9 WAR grade. (He’s not off to a good start!) 23-year-old Grissom is a high-OBP hitter whose fielding should get better with more reps as the go-to second baseman.
I don’t see much of a case for returning backstops Connor Wong and Reese McGuire pulling the catcher group out of mediocrity. Some combination of a partial Wong framing rebound and McGuire shaking off an uncharacteristically lackluster season behind the plate helps. But you pretty much have to view the tandem as 20-30% below average offensively. Connor strikes out a ton and Reese does not generate enough hard contact. Boston’s catchers aside, there’s plenty of offensive upside across the infield leading to a 3-5% percent macro improvement. Depth is acceptable with Enmanuel Valdez, Rob Refsnyder, and to a lesser degree, platoon bat Bobby Dalbec. However, Dalbec’s days could be limited if center field prospect Ceddanne Rafaela surges.
2024 AL East Projected Standings
- New York Yankees (96-66)
- Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
- Tampa Bay Rays (88-74)
- Baltimore Orioles (86-76)
- Boston Red Sox (80-82)
Down To the Wire
Just one more preview to go then it won’t be long until the 2024 MLB season kicks off in full force. If you want to catch up on the previous four divisions, be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for instant email notifications:
