Last Chance at Daytona was one hell of a show. Three-wide racing and hard hits led to the RFK Racing boys executing to perfection, delivering Chris Buescher a career-high victory #3 in 2023. Yanni has us covered for the NFL season with a must-read series of divisional previews and the MLB betting season has officially closed for me outside of rooting home our win total futures. What to do with this newfound time? Break down the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs Round of 16! BOL and enjoy the playoffs.
One Step At a Time
The playoff field of 16 hopeful NASCAR Cup Championship teams is officially set after the dust settled at Daytona. Bubba Wallace, the only driver in danger of getting knocked out of the postseason, made it through on points with the Buescher win. We’re into the Round of 16 and you know the drill: three races then four teams are eliminated. The first postseason gauntlet is the Darlington-Kansas-Bristol trifecta that debuted in this order last season. This oval sampler has a much different texture from the next round’s Texas-‘Dega-Roval. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves quite yet. We have to get a beat on who will keep their Championship prospects alive when they get to the Lone Star State.
The Playoff Picture
13 teams in the postseason field were regular season winners, advancing to the postseason all but automatically with their stash of playoff points. Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Bubba Wallace locked in their berths on points with only Bubba having to fade a first-time winner squeezing him out last weekend. The five-win William Byron “shares” the top slot with Regular Season Champion Martin Truex Jr and his 15 playoff point bonus.
Looking Into the Crystal Ball
I score my drivers with factors for the specific track as well as track type. Plus it’s obligatory to throw in some momentum indicators, even though the Daytona race has next to no effect on my scoring looking forward. Drafting-style “plate” races deserve their own niche. However, the results from Darlington will affect their Kansas scores. And both will roll into the Bristol Night Race. So the following projections through the Round of 16 are dynamic, especially with the playoff point picture changing from week to week.
A Crown Jewel to Start Things Off – The Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
Extreme circumstances brought the Southern 500 back to Labor Day weekend and I’m all for it. Kevin Harvick’s fiery ending aside, Darlington has served well as the postseason leadoff host. Our primary fantasy NASCAR analytics resource Ryan at iFantasyRace.com (@ifantasyrace on X) looks at The Lady in Black as a unique 1.366-mile track with some comparisons to the gone but not forgotten Auto Club Speedway, Homestead, and Bristol.
Darlington is a chew you up, spit you out joint. Tire wear is the strategic focus for crew chiefs; surviving 500 miles with right side damage is the drivers’ challenge. Defending champ Erik Jones didn’t mind being on the outside looking in last year when he added a second Southern 500 victory to his resume. Will an outsider claim this jewel again, or does a contender lock up a spot in the Round of 12 immediately?
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Darlington
- Denny Hamlin – Although the last couple spring races left Denny disappointed, the 3X Southern 500 champ carries strong form into Sunday’s race along with his Darlington prowess.
- Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s 2022 Southern 500 early exit was uncharacteristic and anything but the #4 team’s fault. In fact, it was the 2X Southern 500 winner’s first non-Top 10 finish here since 2012!
- Martin Truex Jr – Scoring MTJ third on this list looks super sketchy. Especially considering that the #19 team hasn’t cracked the Top 20 here since the 2021 Southern 500. But the underlying metrics in those letdown results are a different story, pairing well with six Top-7 finishes before Daytona.
- William Byron – Winning the first Darlington race this season puts a charge into Willy B’s power rank. The downside the #24 car’s slowing momentum to close out the regular season is a concern for this Championship contender. Don’t sleep on the fact that he’s registered strong speed ratings in four of his last five here.
- Joey Logano – Are you willing to give the 2022 Cup Series Champion a pass on his uninspiring May run? If so, things look good for Logano this weekend. Downsides concern the occasional dud at Darlington and weakness at the comp tracks.
Potential Big Movers at Darlington
- Kyle Busch 🔻 – The last thing I want to do is piss off Ms. JJ. But her Championship future ticket on KFB could look more grim if a poor Darlington showing knocks him out of the Top 10 in the playoff standings. Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick are on Busch’s bumper and figure to be greater scoring threats this weekend.
- Kevin Harvick 🔺 – Much like last season, Harvick has a prime opportunity to jump up in the ranks at Darlington. The short-timer has unfinished business spilling over from the 2022 Southern 500. And there’s no excuse to not gain positions ahead of the likes of Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Michael McDowell, etc. Might be a hot take but I won’t be surprised to see Kevin vault close to the 5th playoff position Sunday night parlaying a good starting position into stage points.
- Chris Buescher 🔻 – Now’s the time for the #17 squad to score their second Top 10 Southern 500 finish, right? That’s one hell of a way to keep the momentum rolling after recent dubs at Richmond, Michigan, and Daytona. Otherwise, Buescher is in a position to get leapfrogged by teams below him who can get down at Darlington. Names like Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and teammate/owner Brad Keselowski come to mind. We’ll see just how impactful momentum is next weekend with the RFK Racing duo. I’m more than happy to see Buescher prove me wrong and make this a terrible take.
- Joey Logano 🔺- Darlington is Logano’s best shot to work his way above the bubble come elimination time. As noted above, there is too much strength in the #22 team’s results and speed here to not expect a big step forward in the playoffs’ opening race.
Blown Away at Kansas Speedway
The trend of reconfiguring – or eliminating – intermediate tracks over the past few years has left Kansas Speedway as one of the few ovals that still host a pair of annual Cup Series races. Kansas and Las Vegas play the role of regular season and postseason representatives of the cookie cutter tracks of the early 2000s. At least the Toyota supporters can say that this track puts on a good show. Six of the last eight Kansas races have gone to Toyota teams, including all three run with this car.
iFantasyRace.com puts Kansas in a small bucket with Las Vegas and Michigan as low-tire wear intermediates. Expand that group to include Charlotte, Texas, Homestead, and California to get even more comps to build out our driver scores. Expect a track position type of race, rewarding passing ability and aggressiveness on the restarts.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Kansas
- Martin Truex Jr – The first slot in this ranking could be a 1a-1b situation between the #19 and teammate Denny Hamlin at Kansas. MTJ has shown exceptional consistency at Kansas and on the comparable intermediate tracks with this Next Gen car, let alone throughout his career. Assuming that Truex maintains excellent form through Darlington, look for betting value with him in head-to-head matchups and other markets considering the relative odds of Hamlin, Byron, and defending Hollywood Casino 400 champ Bubba Wallace.
- Denny Hamlin – The most recent winner here and 4X Kansas victor should be the betting favorite next week. Hamlin arguably deserves this tag based on his Kansas resume alone, however, a P3 at Michigan and decent success on the comparable tracks supports this position.
- Kyle Larson – Three P2 or better finishes in the last four races here are huge for Larson’s prospects of inching his way up the playoff standings. A win at California and runner up at Las Vegas early in the season slightly offset hit-or-miss form heading into the postseason.
- William Byron – Admittedly, #4 seems low for Willy B at Kansas with the main knock against him being current form. A strong night at Darlington could speak to a playoff surge with significant Final Four implications.
- Ross Chastain – Trackhouse Racing’s playoff representative has been nothing but rock solid at Kansas in the new car. Mid-Top 10 finishes and speed ratings over those three races earn him a spot on this list. Plus he’s showed up nicely at Las Vegas the past two seasons – a comp that also serves a role in the playoffs.
Potential Movers at Kansas
- Ross Chastain 🔺 – Assuming Ross loses a couple positions to someone like Joey Logano and/or Tyler Reddick at Darlington, Kansas is a good place to get them back. Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, and Brad Keselowski can be jumped back over in the standings, as applicable.
- Bubba Wallace 🔺 – Bubba fell just outside the Top 5 list above but is obviously not going to be overlooked next week. The defending Hollywood Casino 400 winner has finished in the Top 10 at Kansas in all three Next Gen races. Three P4s at Las Vegas, Kansas, at Charlotte in the regular season also point towards the #23 team showing up strong in the second race of the Round of 16.
- Kyle Busch 🔻- Kansas has been a boom-or-bust track for Kyle. Going back to the 2020 playoff race, he’s put up three Top 5 results – including a win in 2021 – and three results of 28th or worse. Likewise, the #8 team has not had a ton of success on the intermediates this season outside of the Fontana win.
Surviving the Cut At the Bristol Night Race
Opening the Cup Series Playoffs with the Southern 500 is one thing. Holding the initial elimination at the Bristol Night Race delivers even more tension to the mix. As one of the toughest tests in the postseason, the Night Race has been claimed by several drivers in the postseason field including Busch, Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, Harvick, and Buescher. That’s right, Chris Buescher – the defending Bristol Night Race winner who led the most laps here one year ago.
The half-mile bullring has very little comparison to other tracks on the Cup Series circuit. Bristol’s steep banks are akin to Dover, except for length and track surface. Need more comps? Being so unique, I devalue the Dover numbers a bit and weigh the teams’ proficiency at Bristol higher. It’s a spot where a single mistake can crush a driver’s chances of staying in the playoffs. No pressure!
Our Top 5 Ranked Playoff Drivers at Bristol
- Kyle Larson – His stout Bristol resume spans multiple race teams and reflects excellent speed and results. Five of Larson’s last six races resulted in P6 or better finishes with a win and P5 in the Next Gen ride. And the underlying speed figures are right there too.
- Kevin Harvick – Three straight Top 10s here including a playoff win in 2020 earn the #4 team a spot on this list. Is 2nd too high though? The speed figures and other underlying metrics support it. But form and momentum play a role in these elimination races, and we should know where the Harvick-Childers team sits in this regard after Darlington. For now, this duo makes the list.
- William Byron – Back-to-back P3 finishes with good speed scores in this new car earn Willy B Top 5 recognition. His progression as a Championship-caliber driver in Hendrick equipment justifies dialing in on these recent results as a strong baseline expectation.
- Denny Hamlin – Denny on the Top 5 list again? Yep, and I’m not even a Hamlin homer. It’s been a few years since the #11 team claimed victory at Bristol but his form as of now, track proficiency, and related track resume keeps him ahead of drivers like Logano and Truex.
- Brad Keselowski – The 2020 Bristol winner regularly shows good speed and scores well here. Of all of the playoff drivers, Keselowski may be one of the most overlooked in the Night Race.
Potential Movers at Bristol
- Ross Chastain 🔻 – This could be the final ride on the playoff see-saw for Ross, one week after potentially making up much needed ground at Kansas. His flash in last year’s Bristol Night Race coupled with two straight strong Dover races could prove my negative sentiment wrong though.
- Christopher Bell 🔺- Bell’s form lags most of the group and he’s been 50-50 in his four Bristol starts. So why do I expect him to do no worse than retain his pre-Bristol playoff position? Probably getting too much credit for his work at Dover, fringe comps, and a P4 in the 2022 Night Race. That said, C-Bell has a good opportunity gain ground in the third race of this round and stay in contention unless last year’s playoff run was a fluke.
Sights Are Set On the Round of 12
Nowhere up there did I weigh the impacts of race winners. Last season’s opening round saw non-playoff drivers sweep all three of these races: Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, and Chris Buescher. And the fact that Chase Elliott is not in the playoffs this season adds even more potential for an outside winner, especially at Bristol. With the pressure of a Championship hunt off the table, will the #9 team be even more dangerous over the next few weeks? Either way, the win-and-in prospects for the bottom playoff teams are already a long shot in this field.
Steady March Forward
These teams have enough of a cushion to be in position to put forth good efforts and make the Round of 12 on points. Plus they are prime candidates to snag a dub along the way. But like we saw with Kevin Harvick last year, an early exit or two can knock any of them off their perch. Three solid runs without incident will push these five drivers forward.
- William Byron – The #24 team’s form heading into the playoffs is perhaps the sole knock against them. Otherwise, Byron is a threat to repeat at Darlington and has been a Top 10 mainstay at Kansas for several years now. And don’t count him out in the Night Race after back-to-back P3s.
- Martin Truex Jr. – Aside from Chris Buescher’s heater, MTJ arguably carries the most momentum into the round. If the #19 can leave Darlington without major incident, they should score well at Kansas and keep the playoff run alive and kicking.
- Denny Hamlin – Simply said, this is a very advantageous round for the #11 crew. The tracks set up well, Hamlin holds a 18 point cushion over the current cut line, and his form is right up there with Truex.
- Kyle Larson – The #5 team hasn’t won since Martinsville but the round also sets up well for them. In my opinion, if Larson can make it through the Southern 500 unscathed he has strong chances to build up points at Kansas and Bristol.
- Christopher Bell – These guys have been very quiet this summer in hit-or-miss fashion. Of all of the drivers in this group, Bell has the largest potential to leave Darlington or Bristol with more drivers ahead of him than where they started. That can put the #20 in the Bubble Watch camp in a hurry.
Poised For Improvement
It’s extremely difficult to nail down all of the moving parts for the next few weeks. Who wins these three races? How will the shifting points standings change from week to week? Tough questions, though two drivers stand out in my eyes as those with room to improve this round compared to several teams sitting ahead of them. Even without wins in the Round of 16 they can take firm steps forward to reach the next stage.
- Joey Logano – Pocono and Indy Road Course aside, Logano enters the playoffs in decent form. Darlington gives the #22 team a great chance to jump up several positions then can maintain their spot at Kansas and Bristol. But the road gets much rockier if the Southern 500 is unkind.
- Kevin Harvick – SHR doesn’t have speed. The #4 team is well behind the curve this season. That said, the veteran duo of Kevin Harvick and Rodney Childers rates highly across the board this round. The game plan is to score well at Darlington, grind at Kansas, and finish strong at Bristol.
Bubble Watch Candidates
- Chris Buescher – Are momentum and current form enough to overturn Buescher’s past performance on this trio of tracks? As noted above, Darlington will be a key barometer moving forward. A Top 10 in the Southern 500 and another massive night at Bristol could offset a key weakness at Kansas. But anything short of a Darlington T10 – or win in this round – will move Buescher too close to the cut line for comfort.
- Kyle Busch – Do not be surprised if Kyle heads into Bristol needing his best effort to survive the cut. The 9X Bristol winner and 3X Night Race champ has an uphill climb in the first two races of the round.
- Ross Chastain – Including Ross in this group has more to do with the competition than it does the #1 team. If Chastain cannot convert speed at Darlington into a commensurate finish, it might be Bristol or Bust. Like Buescher, the Southern 500 is a big litmus test for Ross’ playoff future.
- Brad Keselowski – Holding serve at Darlington and Bristol is paramount for the #6 team. Kansas and similar intermediates are not the places that Keselowski wants to rely on scoring well at.
- Tyler Reddick – A steady Round of 16 should allow Reddick to gain a couple positions and avoid the Bubble Watch. Non-road course form is the key concern that could rain on his parade.
- Ryan Blaney – Nondescript history at all three tracks could leave Blaney at the mercy of his competitors. Barring a breakout in any of these races, the #12 crew will need help from a driver or two failing to advance their playoff positions.
- Bubba Wallace – Past troubles at Bristol make a Top 3 or win at Kansas a must to move above the cut line. Fortunately, Bubba’s history at Kansas grows stronger by the race.
In Need of a Miracle
- Michael McDowell – A late-season win-and-in at the Indianapolis Road Course spared McDowell from the points race at Daytona. Now the Front Row Motorsports team faces a steep uphill climb across all three races. I’m a big fan of this team in general, but still score the #34 as the lowest team in the playoff field in each of these contests.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr – There’s no doubt that Ricky stepped his game up across the board in 2023. The Daytona 500 win secured him a playoff berth right off the bat, but is this “next step” season enough to make the cut in this round? A Stenhouse surge better happen before Bristol if the #47 crew wants to make the Round of 12. Singular Top 10s at both Darlington and Kansas over the past few years cast a dark cloud barring a win or back-to-back big weekends.
