With the Clash right in front of us, there’s no better time to break down our featured 2023 NASCAR futures position. At least I don’t have to eat crow from last year’s handicap that was loosely based on the premise that Kyle Larson is not the next Jimmie Johnson. Might as well plow those proceeds right back into another season win total, eh? Sure, plenty of people don’t like tying up portions of their bankroll in long-term futures positions. No issues with that whatsoever. But keeping a separate futures bankroll sized around 15% of my main roll stocked with MLB positions and some NASCAR tickets works just fine for me.
Our 2023 NASCAR Futures Position: The Christopher Bell Season Win Total
I’ve seen a good number of prominent NASCAR handicappers echoing the bright future of Christopher Bell. Deservedly so after seeing him take a huge step forward in season three of his young Cup Series career. His position on the championship odds board lies in that sweet spot around 12/1 – cue Joey Logano’s 2022 preseason odds – so that bright future could return bright rewards for his backers. If you’re looking for another futures position to add for the 2023 season, maybe the ammunition below will get you off the fence with the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing team. But before I get too far, gotta give some love to our guy Ryan at ifantasyrace.com for his databases, asterisk reports, and so much more. Appreciate your hard work, Ryan!
The 2022 Breakout
The inaugural year of this version of the Cup Series car kept a lot of us handicappers on our heels as we learned on the fly. One theme that sprung early and persisted throughout the season: a broader spectrum of teams were legitimate contenders almost every week. Parity? Perhaps. When it came to Christopher Bell, the season started slowly then began to ramp up at COTA. The shorter tracks treated him well and that momentum rolled into securing a playoff berth with a win on the Magic Mile. Next thing you know, Bell rips off three top fives and a couple wins during a strong postseason run. And the numbers back it up. His Cup Series resume, as summarized by DriverAverages.com, reflects a nice jump in execution for this #20 JGR team from year one to year two.
A key area of strength really popped across the group of one-mile and shorter tracks I’ll toss together as the “High hp” tracks. Two of Christopher Bell’s four wins came in this area that made up just over 1/3 of the Cup Series points races in 2021-2022. This season again takes the drivers to 13 of these tracks, so you really have to like his odds to snag a win or two in this segment. Will his growth get stunted by more teams on the rise? That’s probably the biggest factor that could hold Christopher Bell back from growing this strength.
C. Bell “High hp” Track Results, 2021-2022
| # Races | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 2021 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
C. Bell “High hp” Track Averages, 2021-2022
| # Races | Avg. Finish | Avg. Rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 2 | 1.5 | 112.5 | 2022 win |
| Richmond | 4 | 3.8 | 105.3 | 3 of 4: 108.4+ rating |
| Nashville | 2 | 8.5 | 89.2 | |
| Gateway | 1 | 9 | 96.8 | |
| Martinsville | 4 | 11.3 | 100.6 | 2022 playoffs win |
| Darlington | 4 | 11.3 | 94.2 | 2022: 5.5 avg. finish |
| Dover | 2 | 12.5 | 77.9 | 2022: P4 finish |
| Phoenix | 4 | 13.5 | 85.8 | |
| Bristol | 2 | 16.5 | 105.7 | 2022: P4 finish |
Getting Twisted on the Road Courses
His other two wins? Look to the road courses, most notably the second race of 2021 on the Daytona Road Course. Talk about relief for a second-year cup driver able to lock down a playoff spot so early in the season. Bell’s second road course win came last year at the Charlotte Roval, making two wins specifically on hybrid courses. I’d argue that his variance in this segment makes a win here less likely. Add the fact that they make up a smaller slice of the 2023 schedule and it becomes less of a point of emphasis. There is a chance that NASCAR eliminating stage breaks on the road courses spares the strongest teams like Bell’s from having to play the track position/strategy game around the stage endings.
There’s an outside chance that Christopher snags a win on the high-downforce intermediates. But those odds are much smaller than the high-hp shorter tracks where he has excelled and is trending positively. What’s working in his favor is having a top-tier team and the resources to take full advantage of catching one of the mile-and-a-half races with the perfect setup. If the rising teams of 23XI, Trackhouse, RCR, and the like are going to make a stronger playoff run, the intermediates are where they could easily squeeze out Bell. So it’s the tighter tracks and road courses where the #20 team should deliver another shot at the Cup Series Championship and cash this ticket.
PRESEASON WAGER: Christopher Bell OVER 1.5 Wins (-139)
As opposed to gliding into the 2022 postseason with last year’s Kyle Larson under looking really nice, this one has all the makings of sweating ten playoff races to get there. Kambi’s -139 price comes with a couple caveats: 1) -139 is a low price compared to some books that are dealing -160 or greater. 2) I’ve been chipping away at this for a while now, using every generic profit boost I could get to stack up an aggregated position at a cost of -127. So I appreciate having a 5% lower break-even point than what Caesars is dealing. -139 is still advantageous in my opinion.
The future is bright for Christopher Bell, and I could think of worse ways to spend my time this fall than pulling for the kid’s second win of the year. Is he going to be sour or will he be motivated after Coach Gibbs took his dirt track racing keys away? Who knows, and who cares? BOL this season and enjoy The Clash!
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