Is the 2023 AL West a two-horse race once again after the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners rose to the top in 2022? Anchored by tested veterans and juiced up by a pair of phenomenal rookies, these two clubs represented the division in the postseason after their division mates floundered through the 162-game campaign. Houston’s incredible run through the playoffs led to a tremendous World Series clash with Philadelphia – perhaps the grittiest team in the MLB – full of drama and clutch performances. It’s safe to say that the Astros and Mariners are the cream of the division crop again this season, but will the Angels, Rangers, or Athletics make a valiant charge?

This is one in a series of six Divisional Previews & Futures outlooks for the 2023 MLB season – the 4th Annual Edition at BetCrushers.com. It’s an incremental process from season to season full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2022 World Series Champions: Houston Astros

2022 Division Winner: Houston Astros

2022 AL West Final Standings

1. Houston Astros (106-56)
2. Seattle Mariners (90-72)
3. Los Angeles Angels (73-89)
4. Texas Rangers (68-94)
5. Oakland Athletics (60-102)

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Houston Astros 2023 Win Total: Open 97.5, Now 95.5

2022 Result: Over 92.5 (106-56 / Pythag: 106)

As Houston geared up to face Philadelphia in the World Series Ms. JJ asked, “So what is the Astros’ weakness?” That was a damn good question at that point, as no club is completely free and clear of flaws. Offense? No. Defense? Definitely not. Rotation? One of the best in the majors. Bullpen? Not with those four high-leverage relievers. So what was it? In the end, Houston’s weakness was the scorching hot offense of Philadelphia. Still, the big bats of Harper, Schwarber, and company weren’t enough to slay this beast – so what changes the landscape in 2023?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J. Abreu (1B)

Subtractions:

• J. Verlander (RHP – SP)
• Y. Gurriel (1B/DH)
• A. Diaz (INF)
• T. Mancini (1B/DH)
• C. Vasquez (C)
• W. Smith (RHP – RP)
• J. Castro (C)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 89 – 92

— Rotation —

It’s fitting that the World Series Champions were led by 3x Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander – a man who returned from a second Tommy John surgery to dominate the regular season (18-4 record, 1.75 ERA, 2.49 FIP/3.23 xFIP) and capture his first World Series win as a starting pitcher. The reliability that Verlander and his cohorts provided was phenomenal. Five pitchers including Verlander made 25+ starts, and deep ones at that. In fact, Houston’s rotation soaked up the most innings in the MLB (950.0) en route to a huge 19.4 WAR.

HOU Rotation, 2022

	Starts	IP	K/BB	FIP/xFIP	WAR
J. Verlander	28	175.0	6.38	2.49/3.23	6.1
F. Valdez	31	201.1	2.90	3.06/2.99	4.4
C. Javier	25	134.1	3.53	3.27/3.60	3.1
L. Garcia	28	157.1	3.34	3.93/3.82	2.1
J. Urquidy	28	162.1	3.69	4.43/4.27	1.3
J. Odorizzi	12	60.0	2.71	3.61/4.60	1.2
L. McCullers	8	47.2	2.27	3.49/3.58	0.8
H. Brown (R)	2	12.0	3.67	2.03/2.89	0.4

The 2023 rotation retains all but Verlander and Jake Odorizzi, who was dealt to the Braves at the trade deadline after starting 12 games for Houston. Jake was a minor loss. On the other end of the spectrum, JV’s 6.1 WAR represents 31% of the rotation’s value and is long gone to the Mets. Spoiler alert: after crunching the numbers, this lost value essentially becomes the delta between 2022 and 2023. With Lance McCullers’ setback affecting the Opening Day roster, 24-year-old Hunter Brown gets the nod after his 20.1-inning MLB debut. The kid deals gas with a very impressive slider/curveball secondary mix that delivered tons of ground balls and strikeouts over his minor league career.

Picking Up Where They Left Off

Given Lance’s issues this spring, I’m looking at Brown and McCullers as a combined #5 good for 30 starts. A mid-to-upper-3.00s estimate conservatively puts them in the 2-3 WAR range. So what about the rest of the crew? Continuity is good, though following up on a career season isn’t the easiest thing to do for most. Framber Valdez appears to be a bona fide workhorse, so no argument with another 30-start season from the presumed staff ace. He makes a great tandem with fully-transitioned starter Cristian Javier off of a monster season of his own. But the consensus projection has the 26-year-old Javier tacking on another half-run of FIP and losing somewhere between 0.5-1.0 WAR with a few more starts.

The young, but experienced, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy are solid rotation pieces who don’t have the same deep outing profiles as Verlander and Valdez. Yet, anyhow. This will have a minor effect on the bullpen and how Dusty Baker approaches the long season after a luxurious 2022. Garcia and Urquidy showed us enough the last couple seasons to profile them for business as usual with a little bit of upside in 2023. Depth is a small concern if any of these four key cogs find themselves on the IL for an extended period. In the meantime, Forest Whitley and Shawn Dubin will continue ramping up in AAA until they receive the call to make their MLB debuts. I hate to gloss over such an elite rotation but there is so much consistency with this bunch of homegrown starters that makes projecting them pretty boring.

— Bullpen —

Care to run back a top three – if not the best – bullpen with the same crew? The Ryan Pressly-Rafael Montero-Bryan Abreu back end monster locked down opponents with 53 saves in 69 opportunities. Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris, and Phil Maton shouldered an additional 185.2 effective innings as important pieces to the least-worked unit in the majors. The bullpen’s health was really quite impressive regarding the 5-6 guys who have the stuff you want on the mound in the latter innings. But I alluded to it earlier: the bullpen will carry a heavier load without Justin Verlander.

Coming Down From the High

Following up an MLB-best 28.3% strikeout rate and 3.05 FIP/3.45 xFIP is no small task either. One of my rules of thumb is to be very skeptical of bullpens carrying insane value from one season to the next. So how close will the Astros bullpen get to last year’s 7.6 WAR? Re-upping with Rafael Montero definitely helped. Question is, do we get the 2022 or the 2021 Seattle version? Maybe something in between considering the 90-point BABIP delta between the last two seasons. That checks out with a lean toward the latter part of his 2.64 FIP/3.22 xFIP too.

Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris are a couple others who are prime candidates to come off of their peaks. Negative xFIP regression looks to be worth about 1.5 wins with these two alone, though Neris’ history of carrying 65+ innings holds a lot of value unless he completely crashes and burns. This bullpen is still very, very good with Ryan Pressly as the primary closer and these guys flanking him. Pressly has been superb since coming over from the Twins in 2018, delivering 30%+ strikeout and 45%+ ground ball rates as well as filthy swing-and-miss stuff each and every season.

What happens when guys like Ryne Stanek, Seth Martinez, Brandon Bielak, and Blake Taylor get pushed into larger roles? After all, Houston’s high-leverage arms really aren’t in a position to take on additional innings. So these more marginal relievers have to fill in and water down the mix. Don’t get me wrong, this will continue forward as of the best bullpens just valued a couple wins less than in 2022.

— Position Players —

Having the MLB’s best rotation and top three bullpen may have masked an Astros lineup that was actually down 4% from 2021. My outlook for the previous season was another prolific offense, just not heads-and-shoulders better than everyone else. There’s not much of a debate that Yordan Alvarez was above almost everyone, rating second offensively to AL MVP Aaron Judge and his 62 home runs. It’s hard to bet against a healthy Yordan delivering 5+ WAR, but 6.6 is a very lofty bar for a part-time fielder. Another overachieving highlight from their championship run was the softer dropoff from departed shortstop Carlos Correa. Breakout rookie Jeremy Pena made it easier to forget about Correa’s career-high 6.2 WAR that he left behind.

Sustaining an elite defense is becoming old hat in H-town. The pitching staff doesn’t care if it’s the same old song and dance – they absolutely love it. World Series MVP Jeremy Pena’s 16 runs saved were a huge part of the team’s success in the field, though my expectations to repeat are tempered by his conflicting zone rating. The kid has the skills to be one of the better players at the position in 2023 despite committing 19 errors as a rookie. For not being an overly disciplined hitter, league average-ish is a fairly solid mark to carry forward.

Average is not the word I would use to describe former White Sox first baseman and 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu. The 36-year-old is the only free agent addition this offseason, filling the spot vacated by Yuli Gurriel in free agency. It’s a little scary to think that the defending World Series Champions stand to gain 2-3 wins over Gurriel’s uncharacteristically-poor 2022 campaign. Even if Abreu’s offensive productivity dips by 10% or so, a “modest” .275/.350/.450 plays oh so nicely into this stacked Houston lineup.

Where Do They Go From Here?

Longtime Astros infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman were a dominant 12.1-WAR tandem. Replicating that value as Altuve turns 33 might be a challenge. (NOTE: Surgery for Altuve’s broken hand was announced just prior to publishing this article.) For starters, 2022’s .300/.387/.533 and 164 wRC+ were eerily similar to his numbers from the 2017 World Series Championship team. Jose might leave a couple wins on the table but Bregman projects solidly if healthy. That’s an important consideration with a catcher group that won’t move the run scoring needle much. 36-year-old Martin Maldonado is such a valuable presence behind the plate that realistically cannot be out there for 120+ games anymore. So we’ll see likely see a lot more of Houston’s young backstop talent like Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz instead of last year’s veterans Jason Castro and Christian Vasquez.

The outfield is more freeform with Michael Brantley’s Opening Day status uncertain. They survived with the 35-year-old on the IL for most of 2022 but will gladly welcome his left-handed bat back into the lineup after posting a fifth straight 120+ wRC+ season. When healthy, the ultra-disciplined veteran helps churn through this talented lineup – especially against right-handed pitching. Fortunately, the Astros have a very flexible outfielder in Chas McCormick who can play all three positions rather comfortably. After seeing Chas work through BABIP regression and a firm drop in hard contact last year, projections are slightly down on his bat.

The Real Deal

That’s not the case with right fielder Kyle Tucker though. Tucker is the real deal and actually has room to gain 5-10% offensively on the heels of earning his first All-Star bid and Gold Glove award. Consider this a testament to his role in Houston’s elite outfield defense alongside that of Arizona and Cleveland. I don’t expect much dropoff at all with the team’s overall fielding prowess either. Centerfielder Jake Meyers has the range and glove skills to be a key contributor in the field but needs to improve his plate discipline if he wants to stay in the lineup. Don’t underestimate the stability of this position player corps along with the strategic addition of Jose Abreu that should keep this offense humming. (Altuve’s absence notwithstanding.)

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Seattle Mariners 2023 Win Total: Open 89.5, Now 88

2022 Result: Over 84.5 (90-72 / Pythag: 89)

The Mariners earned their 90 wins by filling key holes on their roster and welcoming AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez to The Show. Not that the 2021 version of a 90-win season didn’t count, but there is something to be said about results aligning with underlying numbers. A top ten offense and improved defense outweighed their average pitching staff, helping Seattle grow into a formidable force heading into the playoffs. If only it wasn’t for those pesky Astros! Don’t sleep on the M’s with a full season of Luis Castillo heading up the rotation…that factor alone could be just enough of a nudge to push them toward the AL West crown.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• T. La Stella (INF)
• AJ Pollock (OF)
• K. Wong (2B)
• T. Herndandez (OF)
• C. Hummel (C/OF)
• T. Gott (RHP – RP)

Subtractions:

• M. Haniger (OF)
• J. Winker (OF)
• A. Toro (INF)
• E. Swanson (RHP – RP)
• K. Lewis (OF)
• C. Santana (1B)
• A. Frazier (1B)
• L. Weaver (RHP – RP)
• L. Torrens (C)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 82 – 87

— Position Players —

After 5+ years of trying to make headway at the plate, the Mariners broke through with one of their most potent lineups. Converting runs was somewhat of a struggle (690 runs, 18th in MLB) in light of the MLB’s third lowest .230 batting average. Plate discipline via the second highest walk rate (9.7%) helped make up for this contact-related shortfall and that of several underperformers. While Adam Frazier, Abraham Toro, and Jarred Kelenic disappointed, AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez blew away expectations with 28 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a .284/.345/.509 slash line. Dare to compare Julio with Seattle’s other fabled Seattle centerfielder?

J. Rodriguez vs. K. Griffey, Jr., Age 21 Seasons

	PA	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	Line	WAR
J. Rodriguez	560	28	7.1%	25.9%	.345	.284/.345/.509	5.3
K. Griffey, Jr. *	633	22	11.2%	13.0%	.347	.327/.399/.527	6.9

It might be both blasphemous and premature to compare J-Rod to first-ballot Hall of Famer and 13x All-Star Ken Griffey, Jr. Yet I went there with a kid whose rookie season wasn’t that far from The Kid’s brilliant age 21 season. Back to what matters in the here and now: Julio’s 2023 outlook. More games, more stolen bases, and a similar hitter profile keep him in that plus 30-40% range. He hits the ball hard despite a high strikeout rate, plus the consensus points to even better defense in his sophomore season. Last year should serve as Rodriguez’ baseline unless injury keeps him off the field for an extended period.

Will Seattle’s strong suits return as such in this pivotal year challenging for the AL West crown? Eugenio Suarez was as close to his 2018 peak as ever, slashing .236/.332/.459 with 31 home runs and decent defense at third base. Sticking with a 10% BB/30% K profile, the 31-year-old could continue on as the mid-lineup slugger the Mariners need. But the probable reality is a 10%+ dropoff with the bat. The good news is that first baseman Ty France is expected to hold the line as a quality .270/.340/.440-type of hitter who can rake against both righties and lefties. Extending primo utility man Dylan Moore was a sharp move by Jerry Dipoto to provide depth and plus fielding pretty much anywhere on the diamond. An oblique strain in Spring Training could delay Moore’s 2023 debut by a couple weeks though.

Front Office Action

One thing we can rely on with this franchise is Jerry Dipoto and the front office’s love of the deal. Exhibit A concerns trading Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker – both of whom Seattle traded for within the last two seasons – to Milwaukee for second baseman Kolten Wong. Toro’s 62 wRC+ and Winker’s 108 were well below the team’s expectations when they brought them to town. Compared to the disappointing second base tandem of Toro and Adam Frazier, Wong conservatively adds 30% at the plate but questions surround his fielding. 2022 was an unusually poor fielding year for the 32-year-old veteran so I am hesitant to sharply upgrade Seattle’s defense at second. Still, Kolten bumps this position up by 1-2 wins unless things really go wrong for him.

Exhibit B is the trade for Toronto’s dynamic hitter Teoscar Hernandez. The 30-year-old locks down a right field spot that Seattle treated as a revolving door with guys like Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty, Mitch Haniger, and Jarred Kelenic. Regardless of that instability, this position group contributed significantly to one of the Mariners’ better fielding seasons in a while. Teoscar trades defense for a 20% bump at the plate after thumping left-handers en route to 25 homers and a .267/.316/.491 line. Swapping Arizona’s Cooper Hummer for Kyle Lewis is an interesting move that could prove more important if Dylan Moore’s injury persists. Free agents AJ Pollock and Tommy La Stella are reasonable additions with better positional flexibility when compared to the departed Carlos Santana and the tough-luck .187 BABIP he leaves behind as a first baseman/DH type.

Internal Goals

Parting with Jesse Winker and Mitch Haniger paves the way for a Jarred Kelenic breakout. The 23-year-old former #6 overall draft pick is the ongoing subject of skepticism that, quite frankly, only he can put to rest. Manager Scott Servais has an open door for Kelenic with those two veterans out of the way. At least he pulled a defensive 180 after the rookie year fielding debacle, paving a reasonable path towards Seattle’s outfield maintaining its good defense. The flip side is that Jarred’s bat probably falls 5-10% short of 2022’s left field group despite Winker’s down year.

Assuming JP Crawford is healthy coming out of Spring Training – and stays that way – there’s value to be gained at the shortstop position. A nagging knee injury did not ding his average-plus bat, though it most likely hampered his fielding. Crawford has been a very good defensive shortstop since coming to the Pacific Northwest but struggled last year in terms of runs saved (-4) and zone ratings. In fact, a healthy JP Crawford is the sole reason why I’m ticking the Mariners’ defense up slightly this season. I’m also a fan of the Cal Raleigh-Tom Murphy backstop tandem with Luis Torrens out the door. Above-average defense and offense is a very nice combination behind the plate.

There doesn’t seem to be any sneaky high-minors prospects poised to beat down the door. Regardless, this is a well-stocked position player corps. I’m a fan of the Kolten Wong and Teoscar Hernandez trades that could prove to be difference makers. Still, my offensive numbers for 2023 keep coming up slightly short from 2022’s despite cutting loose several underperformers. Instead of overriding this downward adjustment to begin the season I’ll monitor their start and be ready to adjust a little quicker than most teams in April/May.

— Rotation —

Aside from the shortened 2020 season, it has been quite some time since the Mariners rotation put forth a championship-caliber effort. Effort may be a poor choice of words considering Seattle’s starting pitchers cranked out the third most innings last year (903.0). Five pitchers made 22+ starts en route to a mid-pack performance in terms of ERA, FIP, xFIP, K%, and BB%. It was, in fact, an improved unit compared to 2021 under the leadership of former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. Along with Marco Gonzales and Logan Gilbert, each made 32 starts with 180+ innings. And we haven’t even gotten to the good part: midseason acquisition Luis Castillo is now under contract for five years.

A personal favorite of mine, former Cincinnati ace Luis Castillo continues to be an effective workhorse since planting his flag in 2018. I’d say that the 30-year-old has been successful in transitioning from a young buck with good stuff to a bona fide MLB starting pitcher. Castillo diversifies his four pitch arsenal quite well considering that batters simply cannot resist the temptation to bite at his wicked slider – even if they know what’s coming with two strikes. This year the Mariners get Castillo’s services for more than half a season, essentially swapping the high-4.00 FIP work by Chris Flexen with tons of ground ball contact and a K/BB ratio around 3.00. As a 30+ start pitcher, Castillo adds around 2 additional wins of value.

Letting Everything Marinate

Aside from extending Castillo’s contract – which was big enough of a move – Jerry Dipoto’s crew was rightfully hands-off with the rotation this offseason. Robbie Ray will be around for at least the next couple years and projects to be a 30+ start workhorse yet again. Like Castillo, Ray has good swing-and-miss stuff that keeps his K/BB ratio on the right side of 3.00 even though the long ball continues to be his nemesis. Holding a value around 2.0 WAR should not be a problem barring significant time on the IL.

Two of Seattle’s youngest starters get their chance to demonstrate long-term value without other new blood. Logan Gilbert vaulted from a rookie who couldn’t quite muster 5 innings/start in 2021 to a dependable 5.8 innings/start building block. Perhaps there’s some concern with continued hard contact (45.6%) without an excess of strikeouts. Regardless, consensus expectations pin Gilbert around 180 innings in the mid-to-upper-3.00s range to stay around 2+ WAR. George Kirby was great in his MLB debut, making 25 starts with 130.0 innings. The rookie showed excellent poise and command with a 6.05 K/BB ratio, 45.5% ground ball rate, and 2.99 FIP/3.33 xFIP. Correcting to xFIP also keeps him at the mid-2.0s WAR level in year two.

Picking Up the Rear

It is unfortunate how lefty Marco Gonzales has fizzled after three productive years in Seattle. Through the 2018-2020 seasons, Marco earned the highest or second-highest valuation for a Mariners starter. Then came the contract extension and his effectiveness coincidentally dropped to the bottom of the rotation’s hierarchy. There’s arguably some room for improvement around a half-win of WAR if Gonzales picks his strikeout rate up off the mat. 13.2% with an anemic 2.06 K/BB ratio just won’t cut it.

Stability with Castillo, Ray, and Gilbert – possibly even Kirby – gives time for Seattle’s top pitching prospects to develop in AAA. Young arms like Taylor Dollard, Emerson Hancock, and Bryce Miller topped out at AA in 2022. Someone like Chris Clarke could be ready to jump up to the big leagues but the reality is swingman Chris Flexen stands to be the sixth starter via the swingman role. The 28-year-old was sharp in his return from the KBO but regressed to his 2021 xFIP last season and shed a fair amount of value. Fortunately, Luis Castillo essentially squeezed Flexen out of the rotation and into the bullpen for the most part. After shaking out all the numbers for 2023, Castillo’s additional value becomes the difference maker for the rotation.

— Bullpen —

The bullpen’s fate swung back the other way after spiking some unsustainable high-leverage performances in 2021. It was a very solid, above-average group despite former heavy-hitters Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, and Casey Sadler falling short of their previous monster seasons. Of those three, only Sewald completed a full season in Seattle. Steckenrider was designated for assignment and is now in the Oakland system. Unfortunately, Sadler suffered a shoulder injury last spring and missed all of 2022. But the M’s relief unit still held their own due in part to the rotation’s consistent deep starts.

More of the Same?

Things look to be rock solid once again with last year’s regression-based correction in the rearview. Paul Sewald is back with his dynamic fastball/slider combo to serve as Seattle’s primary closer. His partners in crime Andres Munoz, Diego Castillo, and Matt Brash return to retain much of the high-leverage nucleus. Munoz was a beast in 65 appearances, cranking out a 38.7% strikeout rate that was good for a 6.40 K/BB ratio. Plus he’s expected to retain much of his 1.9 WAR value by virtue of a 100-mph fastball and wicked slider. Castillo has limited upside after losing command while succeeding in avoiding hard contact. Likewise, Brash has a golden opportunity to step up in the ranks after a decent rookie showing in the bullpen.

Dipoto must have really liked the depth afforded by first-year MLB players like Matt Brash or even Penn Murfee when he shipped top performer Erik Swanson to Toronto in the Teoscar Hernandez trade. This appears to be a shrewd sell high move after Swanson blew up with a 1.68 ERA and 1.85 FIP/2.72 xFIP in a career-high 57 appearances. Sewald and Munoz are legit back-end relievers with two or three more quality supporting cast members flanking them. It may not be a star-studded group but it’s fairly deep and talented – so I’m fine with keeping Seattle’s bullpen in the same neighborhood as 2022.

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Los Angeles Angels 2023 Win Total: Open 79.5, Now 81.5

2022 Result: Under 83.5 (73-89 / Pythag: 76)

Missing your season win total by ten games is a good sign that the season was a huge disappointment. Jared Walsh coming of age, Anthony Rendon back from injury, and an elite duo of Mike Trout and reigning American League MVP Shohei Ohtani meant that 2022 was their year, right? Wrong. They may have fooled me and my 82-91 win total range, but it was business as usual in the eyes of skeptical Angels fans. The offseason left a ton of things for Perry Minasian and the front office to fix. It was so bad that manager Joe Maddon was canned in the midst of a 14-game losing streak and replaced by third base coach Phil Nevin. This was a 24-13 team in mid-May for crying out loud! Things are going to change, right?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• B. Drury (INF)
• C. Estevez (RHP – RP)
• T. Anderson (LHP – SP)
• G. Urshela (INF)
• H. Renfroe (OF)

Subtractions:

• J. Junk (RHP – SP)
• M. Lorenzen (RHP – SP)
• A. Bradley (RHP – RP)
• M. Duffy (INF)
• J. Villar (INF)
• K. Suzuki (C)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 82 – 86

— Position Players —

Another year, another lackluster offense in Orange County. Angels fans probably don’t care what the reason was this time. Shohei Ohtani certainly pulled his weight with 34 home runs and a .273/.356/.519 line – not to mention 166.0 brilliant innings on the mound. Mike Trout was quietly great once again, putting up his sixth straight .600+ slugging mark despite missing a quarter of the season. Plus outfielder Taylor Ward was surprisingly great. But it obviously takes more than three productive hitters to keep a lineup from being stuck in the bottom third of the league. Having the highest strikeout rate and one of the lowest walk rates in the MLB does not do you any favors.

Lack of quality depth was a deficiency exacerbated by injuries. When infielders Anthony Rendon and David Fletcher spend a combined 231 days on the IL and up-and-comer Jared Walsh loses about 50% of his offensive productivity, a team needs answers in a hurry. Unfortunately, the Halos simply did not have any reasonable solutions to prop up their ailing lineup. General manager Perry Minasian’s tall task of backfilling a messy position player group is made even worse by the fact that Anthony Rendon and generational talent Mike Trout are feeling the effects of Father Time.

How Do Things Get Better?

That context may have changed with several signings and trades this winter. Are offseason acquisitions Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Hunter Renfroe enough to paint a more optimistic picture? For jaded fans, probably not. My unbiased lens seems to think so. But this club has fooled me before. Whether this expected improvement manifests as reality deserves skepticism after the last few years.

Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him right around league average in right field in each of the last three seasons. Statcast’s range-based metric has Renfroe a few runs below average annually, but he compensates for his fringy athleticism with top-tier arm strength. He’s picked up double-digit assists in each of the last two years, and he leads all MLB outfielders with 27 baserunners cut down in that time.

Angels Acquire Hunter Renfroe from Brewers – Anthony Franco, MLBTradeRumors.com – November 22, 2022

Hunter Renfroe enters the fold a power bat with a strong arm suitable for right field. Sure, the outfield lost some defensive strength when Brandon Marsh was dealt to Philadelphia last summer but Renfroe adds another much-needed 25+ home run element to the lineup. He should offset an anticipated 5-10% pullback from Ward and Trout by adding a little something extra to the outfield’s firepower. A plus-20% bat in the corner is a complementary piece that the Angels missed last year. Depth via Brett Phillips or even Luis Rengifo, however, does not diversify their righty-heavy outfield unless Phillips reverses course or the switch-hitting Rengifo suddenly strengthens against right-handed pitching.

The mid-season Brandon Marsh trade yielded the Angels’ catcher of the future, Logan O’Hoppe. As of now, the 23-year-old is on his way to making the Opening Day roster as their starting catcher. We have to pump our brakes on year one of O’Hoppe’s MLB career after cameoing in just 5 games last year. Something modest like .240/.300/.400 is a 30-40% improvement over last year’s catcher group that featured Max Stassi and the now-retired Kurt Suzuki. Simply replacing Suzuki with O’Hoppe gets a negative defensive group much closer to neutral along with Stassi’s good framing skills. Unless the kid truly struggles as a rookie, L.A.’s backstops can easily improve by 2-3 WAR.

Resurrecting the Infield

Optimistically speaking, opportunities for improvement are everywhere across the infield. Every single position group drug down the Angels’ offense in 2022. Youth at the catcher spot helps. As should the new blood on the roster. Brandon Drury’s breakout with Cincinnati and San Diego earned him a Silver Slugger award as a utility player – a role that this club should embrace. It fits the mold of fellow flexible infielders David Fletcher and Luis Rengifo. Whether he continues his offensive march or drops back toward league average is the question after mashing 28 homers and slashing .263/.320/.492. Drury’s fielding could be better, though having another puzzle piece in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s continuous injury issues and Walsh’s rebound from thoracic outlet surgery is not a terrible thing.

Getting more than 60 games out of Rendon is another objective, though seemingly out of anyone’s control. I still see projections for a plus 20-30% bat and solid fielding. All signs point to Rendon staying healthy with Opening Day about ten days away. So the outlook for third base is firmly positive with Gio Urshela added as a quality backup to Rendon as well as a potential platoon partner with Walsh at first. Gio could even be in the shortstop mix if David Fletcher continues to be an offensive liability. My guess is that manager Phil Nevin wants Fletcher in there for his defense but won’t hesitate to shake things up with Urshela and Rengifo on the bench. There’s enough decent options in stock to scratch out more gains on defense, especially at third base and behind the plate.

Good To Go?

With Shohei Ohtani continuing to do his thing – smashing 30+ home runs, slugging over .500, and smacking balls at a 50% hard hit rate – the primary question remaining revolves around Jared Walsh. I was one of many who was high on him after building on a 150 wRC+ in the shortened 2020 season with a strong 126 wRC+ behind a solid .277/.340/.509 line. Then came last year’s shoulder issues and the decline of nearly every offensive attribute other than hard contact. Fortunately, Nevin has more options with the aforementioned Drury and Urshela on the roster to rest Walsh more frequently. There are gains to be made at every infield position and anything above average from Jared pushes the first base group to a 2-3 win gain.

As for superstar centerfielder Mike Trout, his back is allegedly good to go after a winter of rehabilitation and conditioning. At the age of 31, it is natural to factor another notch of decline around 10-15%. That decline is likely offset by being in the lineup for an additional 20-30 games though. So I’ll tend towards the status quo with Trout in terms of value to the position player group. After all, a healthy Mike Trout is better than anyone replacing him out there even at this stage in his career. It’s now or never for the Angels’ offense. I’ll be adjusting the Angels offense upward several percent with heavier improvement against left-handed pitching.

— Rotation —

Just when you thought the dude was good, Shohei Ohtani went ahead and put up sub-3.00s across the board in 28 starts. ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, whatever. The numbers ranged from 2.33 – 2.73 with a filthy 33.2% strikeout rate that was third highest among all MLB starters with more than 100 IP. Plus Ohtani’s 5.6 WAR – on the pitching side alone – was sixth most among all starters. Can the 28-year-old phenom ratchet it up even more in 2023 behind that wicked slider? The verdict seems to tend toward the other direction. Will the Angels take another 160+ innings of 3.00-FIP dominance? Absolutely. But it comes at a cost around a win or so.

Shohei’s partner in crime Patrick Sandoval burst on the scene with good swing-and-miss stuff while keeping the ball on the ground. Not only did the left-hander tack on twice as many starts as 2021, Sandoval worked the second most innings on the club. The sinker/slider thing worked well but the underlying numbers might hold back his progression in 2023. Will the home run luck pendulum swing back the other way and push him towards last year’s xFIP (3.09 FIP/3.67 xFIP)? If so, knock another win off of the rotation’s potency.

Stacked With Southpaws

Waving goodbye to Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen meant not just losing a combined 33 starts, 177.2 innings, and 2.2 WAR – the Angels’ find themselves with up to four left-handed starters on the Opening Day roster. (Thor was dealt at the trade deadline and not the offseason.) If all goes well though, southpaw Tyler Anderson will effectively replace their workload and value. The 33-year-old turned his career around with a brilliant season on the Dodgers’ top-tier rotation. If you’re Ben Clemens, you love the potential for Tyler’s slider and new cutter to soften the landing from his 4.0-WAR blowout. Most everyone else is on the fence about another stellar campaign out of Anderson.

Lefty running mates Jose Suarez and Reid Detmers have even more tread left on their tires. Keep an eye on Suarez out of the gates after a strong second half. If his repertoire plays well, he could be one of those who provides more value by making a few more starts and not letting things get out of control. 25 starts and 140 innings likely maintains last year’s value even at a higher 4.00 FIP. Detmers is in a similar situation, except he’s even younger at the age of 23 – so a workload bump above last year’s 25 starts and 129.0 innings is icing on the cake.

Stability Could Be Worse

It is reasonable to expect these #4 & #5 guys to tread water in terms of WAR. Falloff from the Ohtani-Sandoval one-two punch combined with parity from the guys below earns the rotation a slight downgrade. Monitor Chase Silseth’s progress in AAA as the young righty builds on his first 7 big league starts last year (5.97 FIP/4.24 xFIP). Griffin Canning appears to be recuperated from a stress fracture in his lower back that kept him out in 2022. So there’s interesting depth in the high minors plus swingman candidate Tucker Davidson – also a lefty – can step in for 10 starts if needed.

— Bullpen —

The worst thing about the L.A. bullpen taking a dive is having low potential for improvement in 2023. Although he was traded to Atlanta last summer, Raisel Iglesias’ void still looms over this group after a tough second half. The bullpen added about 0.40 runs to FIP and xFIP after dealing him. Tucker Davidson isn’t an Iglesias caliber of pitcher and free agent signings Carlos Estevez and Matt Moore don’t pack much punch either. There’s always hope that the 33-year-old Moore throws up another out-of-the-blue 1.95 ERA, 2.98 FIP/ 3.87 xFIP season, right?

Jimmy Herget is a human glitch. pic.twitter.com/VIgPRdx33p

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2022

A committee approach to the closer position could rope in Jimmy Herget, except that his 1.6 WAR teetered on a .243 BABIP and an xFIP that was 1 run greater than his ERA. He may be the bullpen’s key high-leverage guy when it’s all said and done though. Otherwise, middle relief sets up to be a letdown area for the club with an aged Aaron Loup, Andrew Wantz, and Jaime Barria. There is another bright spot at least. Jose Quijada looks like the man with the most potential in this group. The swing-and-miss goods are there and Jose has consistently delivered a 30%+ strikeout rate in his young career. I hate to kick a bullpen when it’s down but the high-leverage group is watered down and middle relievers are just above replacement level: a recipe for no improvement or even a small decline.

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Texas Rangers 2023 Win Total: Open 80.5, Now 81.5

2022 Result: Under 74.5 (68-94 / Pythag: 77)

Texas made all kinds of headlines last offseason by signing big free agents like Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Jon Gray. These front office moves caught the eye of bookmakers who had no choice but to bump up their season win total sharply. Apparently that was too much, as the Rangers fell short of market expectation by six wins. The talent infusion was good enough to boost offensive production to its highest levels in seven years while creating small gains with the pitching staff. It just so happened that these improvements didn’t quite pay off in the win column. Texas’ pythagorean differential of nine wins says they left way too much on the table. Perhaps bringing in 3x World Series-winning skipper Bruce Bochy is the key to unlocking those lost Ws after all.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• W. Smith (RHP – RP)
• R. Grossman (OF)
• N. Eovaldi (RHP – SP)
• A. Heaney (LHP – SP)
• J. deGrom (RHP – SP)
• J. Odorizzi (RHP – SP)

Subtractions:

• K. Allard (LHP – SP/RP)
• N. Solak (INF/OF)
• M. Moore (LHP – RP)
• C. Culberson (INF)
• K. Calhoun (OF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 83 – 85

— Rotation —

The rotation has not been a strength of the Rangers for about a decade. Last year’s rendition was better than the year before with the addition of Jon Gray and some old fashioned addition by subtraction. Gray and Martin Perez, who re-upped with a one-year deal after a career season, carried most of the rotation’s load. Dane Dunning struggled to build on his 2021 success and now finds himself in the sixth starter position at AAA Round Rock. Instead, the 56 starts made by Dunning and Glenn Otto will now be replaced by an incoming crop of proven MLB starters.

General manager Chris Young shifted his attention this offseason from assembling a competitive lineup to bulking up the rotation. His starting pitchers took a healthy jump forward in 2022, slashing their third-worst 5.19 FIP down to 4.42. That’s clearly not good enough to compete in the AL West where Houston reigns supreme and Seattle and Los Angeles are strengthening their own rosters to challenge them. Not only do the Rangers need better quality, they need innings after failing to crack the 800-inning plateau for the second straight season.

Fighting Fire With Fire

Grizzled manager Bruce Bochy should be pleased by the offseason work that Young and the front office put in. Their December spending spree was all about wrangling three big free agent starters: Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney. That helps squash concerns with Martin Perez following up his 3.27 FIP/3.80 xFIP season with something around the 4.00-FIP mark and losing 1-2 wins of value. A healthier Jon Gray can absorb most of Perez’ losses but the club knew that was not enough to push the needle forward again.

As far as 2023 goes, Dan Szymborski summarized the Rangers’ state of affairs well as a team with a few big stars and some significant holes. Everybody knows by now the conundrum that deGrom presents: elite talent tempered by wild uncertainty regarding durability. Conservative estimates for 100 innings reflect the last couple seasons’ workload. Then again, 150+ is not out of the question even if his 200-inning seasons of 2017-2019 are a thing of the past. Crunch deGrom’s insane metrics like 35%+ strikeouts, sub-5% walks, 20%+ swinging strike rate, etc. and 4-5 WAR becomes the sweet spot for projections. It’s the amount of innings that will ultimately dictate how much value the 2x Cy Young Award winner brings to the Rangers this season.

Balancing Expectations

Throw in another veteran lefty to complement Martin Perez and this year’s rotation gets even more interesting. That’s where strikeout artist Andrew Heaney comes in. We can’t rely too much on his half season with the Dodgers since it plays a lot like the short-run COVID year. That’s both a positive and a negative for the 31-year-old when balancing a career-best 35.5% strikeout rate with a career-worst 47.7% hard hit rate. When you fit Heaney into a 25-start season at a pedestrian 5 innings/start he becomes a mid-3.00s FIP guy worth 2+ WAR.

The unfortunate injury issues clouding newcomers deGrom and Heaney really start to emphasize the importance of #5-1/2 starter Dane Dunning and swingman Jake Odorizzi. Otherwise, the Rangers would have to lean on lightly experienced arms like Glenn Otto, Spencer Howard, and Cole Ragans. Similar health concerns extend to Nathan Eovaldi after dealing with nagging back and shoulder injuries in 2022. Although his profile is more ground ball-centric, Eovaldi falls into the Heaney bucket of 25 starts and mid-3.00s effectiveness. These two alone could deliver value close to that of the entire rotation a year ago. That’s how the Rangers’ starting pitching can tack on another 8-10 wins through big additions and rostering solid depth behind them.

— Bullpen —

I was wrong about the Rangers bullpen losing a step without much high-leverage experience. It was a league-average unit for the most part while shouldering a heftier workload handed off by the piecemeal rotation. One key area of improvement is mitigating the dreaded low-strikeout/high-walk combo personified by Joe Barlow (19.2% K, 8.9% BB) – the team’s saves leader while Jose Leclerc finished rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Leclerc is a in position to reclaim the closer role but many of us are skeptical whether he is a true lockdown reliever after failing to replicate his monster 1.89 FIP/3.10 xFIP, 2.6-WAR 2018 season.

The club seems to be high on Jonathan Hernandez, another reliever who missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery. But his 29-outing return last year suffered from 20.6% strikeout and 13.0% walk rates. Plus there’s even more conflict with his 62.4% ground ball (good) and 50.0% hard hit (bad) numbers. There could be a hidden gem in Josh Sborz, though he’ll be put to the test after making only 19 appearances last year. He’s one of several questions that will be answered by late summer. As of now, anybody’s guess is as good as mine.

Too Many Questions?

• Who replaces an out of nowhere 1.3-WAR season from journeyman Matt Moore? 74.0 innings over 63 relief appearances at a fortunate .257 BABIP is like catching lighting in a bottle.
• Brock Burke was pretty damn good in his first full MLB season (3.29 FIP/3.49 xFIP, 0.9 WAR), but is he good for 80+ innings again?
• Is Taylor Hearn truly a bullpen beast? His starter/reliever splits were night and day…

Taylor Hearn, Splits by Usage (2022)

	IP	K%	BB%	AVG	FIP	xFIP
As Starter	59.0	19.4%	10.1%	.305	4.84	4.64
As Reliever	41.0	25.1%	8.8%	.208	2.75	3.56

That’s a healthy dose of variance added on top of the swingy nature of bullpens. Workload demands should improve for the Rangers bullpen, still I have to mark them down over the long haul because of these questions. It sounds funny to say that this is the sort of thing that could keep their team out of the playoffs. But it could be their Achilles’ heel in spite of all other improvements to the roster.

— Position Players —

This offseason clearly focused on improving the rotation on the heels of some big whacks at the lineup last winter. Other than Robbie Grossman’s late signing to address the big hole in left field, 2023 is an improve from within year for the position player group. The personnel was in place to jolt the Texas offense and the results were there. It was the best production this team has seen in 6-7 years. Their eighth-most home runs was a dramatic turnaround from the previous season’s fifth-lowest 167 homers. But the hidden key to their success was a league-leading 128 stolen bases – a key attribute in 2023’s friendly environment. Four players swiped 10+ bases, including 25 by both Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia (T-9th in the MLB).

Consistency from last season is a good thing, right? The previous winter’s splash signings Marcus Semien and Corey Seager have rebounds on their minds after meh debuts with the Rangers. Semien’s slow start handcuffed his season, leaving room for 10% improvement at the plate in 2023. Seager, on the other hand, hit the ball hard and was disciplined but suffered from a .242 BABIP. Kyle is a huge fan of the shift ban! The talented left-handed hitter is in line for a 15-20% bump unless the guy has completely lost his edge. That’s doubtful, so pencil in an extra win of value between the middle infielders with adequate defense again.

Ups and Downs On the Dirt

Production between the infield corners was night and day, no thanks to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. The dude gets traded to Texas for the 2021 season, becomes the everyday first baseman, then breaks out with 27 homers and a .302/.358/.492 line. Even with 10% regression priced into the mix, I see agreement with him being a .270-ish hitter with power. Maybe a small tick down in value – something that could get mitigated if Lowe’s defensive focus this offesason pays off.

Third base, on the other hand, was cold as ice last season. Offense, defense, it was all pretty bad at the hot corner. Bad enough to grade out as the second-worst third base group in the majors. Sure, the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics, and Angels hit worse – but the rough fielding was the icing on the cake. The Rangers threw a bunch of guys at the position like Charlie Culberson, Andy Ibanez, Ezequiel Duran, Brad Miller, Josh Smith, and 2019 first round pick Josh Jung. This is Jung’s position to lose in 2023 though, a huge reason why Jung must leave camp fully healthy. He’s a league-average bat, at minimum, and can be a decent glove if on the field consistently. Having Duran as a potential platoon partner might actually work too. These guys can flip third base from a -1.9 WAR liability to a gain fairly easily.

Catching should continue to be a strong suit with the good framer Jonah Heim as primary backstop and Mitch Garver in more of a backup catcher/designated hitter role. Garver’s injuries limited his Rangers debut much like they hampered his final season in Minnesota. So a healthy Mitch Garver gives Bruce Bochy options like a DH platoon with Brad Miller, though Jonah is the clear choice behind the plate. Heim gives his club the best opportunity to maintain its fielding ratings on the right side of neutral.

Outfield Fluidity

Leody Taveras’ oblique injury in Spring Training will test the resiliency of the Rangers’ outfield. The speedy switch-hitting centerfielder is one who should benefit from the new rule changes, along with backup Bubba Thompson who stole 18 bases in just 55 games. That’s one heck of an MLB debut! But Thompson is essentially one step behind Taveras in the field and at the plate. Neither is going to wow the fans with their bats. But rock solid defense in center is one of those under-appreciated traits that does make a difference.

The outfield generally lacked punch and is likely to stay that way in 2023. In fact, the entire offense looks to be around the league-average mark again. There’s limited upside potential among outfielders like Taveras, Thompson, and Adolis Garcia; plus I have concerns with Garcia’s fielding continuing to degrade from his 2021 breakout. Adolis racked up 16 runs saved with great zone ratings between center and right field, serving as a major contributor to Texas’ most successful defensive season in a very long time.

Depth is marginally okay with Josh Smith and Clint Frazier, though Bubba Thompson could show us something early this season while Taveras is on the shelf. Fortunately, the club made a late signing of veteran switch-hitting outfielder Robbie Grossman. The bitter truth is that he’s a better alternative than the other bench players that can play in the corners. Robbie is 33 years old, though, and is clearly a stopgap measure without much in AAA ready to make an impact this season.

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Oakland Athletics 2023 Win Total: Open 60.5, Now 59.5

2022 Result: Under 71.5 (60-102 / Pythag: 59)

What more can you say about a franchise that jettisoned the proven parts of their rotation and stripped the lineup of their four best position players? Last place in the division. Bottom five offense. Next-to-worst pitching staff. So on and so forth. Sure, we projected most, if not all, aspects of this Oakland club to take a dive, but down to the 60 win level? As a Cincinnati Reds fan, I feel Athletics fans’ pain. Are the A’s in the cliched buy low spot after such a rough season?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• JJ Bleday (OF)
• J. Aguilar (1B)
• S. Fujinami (RHP – SP)
• D. Rucinski (RHP – SP)
• T. May (RHP – RP)
• M. Pina (C)
• K. Muller (LHP – SP)
• E. Ruiz (OF)
• A. Diaz (INF)
• J. Peterson (INF)

Subtractions:

• C. Irvin (LHP – SP)
• AJ Puk (LHP – RP)
• S. Murphy (C)
• J. Payamps (RHP – RP)
• C. Pinder (INF)
• S. Piscotty (OF)
• J. Lowrie (INF)
• S. Neuse (INF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 60 – 72

— Position Players —

Rarely do I project a team to decline in each of the four key areas. Last offseason, Oakland was one of those teams for me – and each attribute did, in fact, decline from the 2021 season. The Athletics’ 2023 lineup is going to be dramatically different, but will it be better? There’s nowhere to go but up after scoring the league’s second-lowest runs (568) and producing the worst slash line components (.216/.281/.346), right? In true Oakland A’s fashion, things had to get worse before they get better.

Billy Beane and company promptly reconnected with a familiar dance partner, Alex Anthopoulos of the Atlanta Braves, to pull off another big offseason trade. Last winter featured the Matt Olson deal for a prospect package that included outfielder Cristian Pache and catcher Shea Langeliers. This time their most valuable position player, catcher Sean Murphy headed to the ATL in exchange for catcher Manny Pina, pitchers Kyle Muller and Freddy Tarnok, and outfielder Esteury Ruiz by way of Milwaukee. Another offseason in sell high mode. Now it’s time to play ball.

The Last of the Athletics

Oakland’s new-look lineup isn’t totally lacking familiar faces at least. Second baseman Tony Kemp is primed for improvement after hitting an uncharacteristically-low .235, no thanks to a .259 BABIP. It certainly looks like the 31-year-old hit a deceptive peak in 2021, though a small improvement into a .250/.325/.350-type of season gets the team an extra half-win of value. Utility infielder Aledmys Diaz could be a nice platoon parter for Kemp at second base too. First baseman Seth Brown’s most productive season set a 25-homer, 117 wRC+ benchmark that has resulted in divided projections for 2023 – so I’ll hold the line with a half-win downwards lean.

Ramon Laureano, adopter of the if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying mindset, breaks the lefty-heavy lineup in a new corner outfielder role. Last year’s transition from center field paid off defensively. If Cristian Pache could actually hit, Oakland’s outfield defense would be halfway decent. And since Pache is supposedly more expendable than Laureano he’ll get his chances to turn it around and improve his trade value. Regardless, Esteury Ruiz looks to be the starter in center at this point. We’ll see if Ruiz can put his wheels to work in the field much like he does on the base paths. So the Laureano situation becomes a matter of adding value through more playing time with a plus-10% bat. I’m still not convinced he isn’t moved this summer though.

In With the New

2019 first round pick JJ Bleday came over in an interesting trade with Miami for fellow first-rounder left-handed pitcher AJ Puk. I look at Bleday’s profile and think, Oakland already has this guy in their system. His name is Conner Capel. Either way, you have these two and Laureano in the corners flanking Ruiz and Pache – for now, at least – bringing the outfield up by 1-2 wins with improved defense and maybe a little something extra at the plate. Let’s see if manager Mark Kotsay takes advantage of their speed.

Oakland transitioned away from veteran Elvis Andrus at shortstop, promoting rookie Nick Allen and his slick fielding. Questions surround the speedy 24-year-old’s bat but Kevin Smith is not a better option. He’ll partner up next to journeyman Jace Peterson who was brought in to salvage the third base position. It was a black hole of value last year as guys like Sheldon Neuse, Vimael Machin, and Jonah Bride teamed up for -1.7 WAR. Bride should get another crack in the big leagues behind Peterson with close to a league average bat and effective fielding skills at third. Like the outfield, Oakland’s infield is set for small offensive and defensive changes worth 3-4 wins.

Incremental Gains Add Up

The A’s system is full of replacements for underperformers so their 26-man roster will again be fluid. One position where Kotsay expects stability is catcher where Atlanta’s 2019 first round pick Shea Langeliers and Manny Pina take over for Sean Murphy, Christian Bethancourt, and the beloved Stephen Vogt. This rookie-veteran tandem has a good chance at being better behind the plate even if Murphy’s 18 homers and .250/.332/.426 line are lofty marks to reach. Sean was the team’s best hitter last year after all.

Veteran DH Jesus Aguilar doesn’t hurt the mission of turning that lineup slot into a productive one. 2022’s mishmash of hitters turned in a .183/.249/.331 line worth a league-low -1.5 WAR. Aguilar can add another 30% of production with an expected 60% position share. His fairly reliable bat tacks on a couple rare wins of value at DH, which should tell you just how awful this slot was last season. Put everything in the blender and the A’s look a few percent better both offensively and defensively.

— Rotation —

The rotation cratering should not be a surprise after last year’s fire sale. This winter, the club said goodbye to their second-most productive pitcher of the 2022 season. Cole Irvin was traded to the Orioles six months after Frankie Montas went to the Yankees. These two alone accounted for 3.3 of the rotation’s 3.5 WAR value. Another thing to consider: Irvin was the only Athletics starting pitcher to log more than 135 innings (181.0). So how does this group avoid another depressing performance in 2023?

Carryovers James Kaprielian and Paul Blackburn are key parts in the transition. These 29-year-olds combined for 47 starts, registering 5.2 and 5.3 innings/start, respectively. Blackburn had a really nice season going (4.21 FIP/3.89 xFIP) before injuring his finger. Sounds like things have been working just fine this spring too. Chalk him up for another half-win just by staying healthy this year. Kaprielian, on the other hand, took a small step backwards after an impressive 2021 rookie season. Was his debut’s 3.00 K/BB a mirage after coming back with an iffy 1.66 last year? Will his shoulder be good to go for another 130+ inning season? The consensus outlook treats Kap hesitantly with slight upside if 2023 is more like the second half of 2022.

International Flavor

Oakland jumped into the international player pool in early January with the Shintaro Fujinami signing. The one-year deal reflects both the Athletics’ general unwillingness to ink multi-year free agent deals and Fujinami’s up-and-down career. Word on the street is the 29-year-old throws hard and his transition towards greater splitter usage helped turn around his career. It was marred by control issues a few seasons ago – something to monitor throughout 2023. Shintaro showed off his skills this spring and has a mid-4.00s FIP, 1+ WAR outlook.

34-year-old Drew Rucinski has American blood in his veins but returns from Korea after developing into a bona fide workhorse in the KBO. He logged 30+ starts and 175+ IP in all four seasons there. It was quality stuff too. Rucinski ratcheted down his FIP each year from 3.92 in 2019 to 2.88 in 2022. Plus there’s something to be said about his work ethic and conditioning. How does that translate to the MLB? Well, that’s the tricky part. Conservative low-4.00s FIP estimates put the ground ball righty in the 1+ WAR bracket with Blackburn and Fujinami.

Finding More Starts

The return package from the Yankees in the Montas trade included 25-year-old southpaw Ken Waldichuk. He just made his MLB debut with the A’s – 7 starts and 34.2 innings. Scouting reports agree that the top 100 prospect’s command is rock solid and last season’s exposure in the majors should be a springboard to a 20+ start 2023. At this point, another 1+ WAR starting pitcher around 4.00 FIP does not hurt the club’s rotation makeover.

Making up another 40 starts or so becomes the key question. Oakland’s starting five are penciled in for 4-6 WAR – already a step above the rough collective performance of 2022. Daulton Jeffries filled in decently last year but is on the shelf for the 2023 campaign. Instead, Kyle Muller assumes the role of “next man up” after making 11 starts over the last couple seasons in Atlanta. Aside from some ugly walk rates the 25-year-old has low-4.00s potential and should eat 10+ starts before the season ends. It’s doubtful that Muller’s cohort from the Braves’ system Freddy Tarnok makes an impact this year but could be in the mix in 2024.

— Bullpen–

Bottom line: the A’s bullpen is raw and full of inexperienced arms. This group isn’t necessarily young but their MLB exposure is limited, at best. Veteran Trevor May comes in on a one-year deal to lead the group after failing to make much of an impact with the Mets last year. It could be one of those rebound-and-flip scenarios where he only spends a half-season in town. That assumes the 33-year-old fades another high-BABIP, high-hard contact season. May will have high-leverage support from high-K righties like Zach Jackson and Dany Jimenez. Bulk innings will be soaked up by a collection of arms – some of which made multiple starts in a pinch last year – that are far from inspiring when it comes to pulling the A’s relief unit out of the basement. I’m always up for a surprise, though I highly doubt this bullpen is significantly better than last year’s.

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2023 AL West Projected Standings

1. Houston Astros (93-69)
2. Los Angeles Angels (85-77)
3. Seattle Mariners (84-78)
4. Texas Rangers (84-78)
5. Oakland Athletics (64-98)

The Calm Before the Storm

That’s a wrap on the 2023 Division Preview series! Only the diehards made it through them all and we appreciate each and every one of our readers. With less than two weeks to go before Opening Day, be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications. Our Opening Day slate rundown is on deck with the MLB Morning Breakdown returning on Friday, March 31st. BOL this season!