We all know that you don’t mess with Texas. But wow. Sunday’s 500 miles fought hard against several playoff teams, burying the #20 & #48 at the bottom of the heap. Plus William Byron’s self-inflicted 25-point penalty submarined the #24 team’s chance to advance. What a way to kick off the Round of 12, right? The sad thing is everyone knows that the 2022 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway is not going to make advancing any easier…especially for the four currently on the outside looking in. At least our bankroll wasn’t hammered into submission last weekend. Bell’s tire issues cleared out a couple of our positions then Elliott returned the favor with a pair of wins. It was good preparation for this weekend, as I can only imagine there will be plenty of sudden give and take with my wagers on the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway!
Playing the 2022 YellaWood 500 – Handicaps for Talladega
Just a head’s up, no race day handicap this weekend. Superspeedway qualifying doesn’t offer a ton of intel to build on our pre-weekend handicaps with. At least that’s what I’m telling myself. In all honestly, Daytona and Talladega – and maybe even Atlanta these days – requires underweighting current form and more focus on which teams have the knack for this unique style of racing. The handicapping challenge is finding those drivers with pricing inefficiencies. Easier said than done, but we’ve started to fill our card with a pair of half-unit positions…
Playing With Fire: Kyle Larson -110 vs. Denny Hamlin -110
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larson | B- | B | D+ | C- |
| Hamlin | A | A- | B | B |
Denny Hamlin finds himself in very interesting predicaments on and off the track. And Talladega is certainly not the joint where you want to have ongoing beef with another driver. This matchup features a driver in the crosshairs against the defending Cup Series Champion who has been relatively under the radar. That said, Kyle Larson’s P4 in this summer’s GEICO 500 will justifiably earn him plenty of backing from bettors this week. I’m on the side of the troublemaker this week though.
Both of these drivers generally run a more passive style of superspeedway race compared to a Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney. Adjusting for similar styles, Hamlin has consistently given us better races – both finishes and ratings – at Talladega aside from this summer. There’s a lot to be said about that in this context. Except for getting whacked by an accident, my handicap says Denny’s biggest threat in this matchup is if the #5 team just found their new formula for superspeedway success. Kyle ran up front all day in April and cashed in. Was this an anomaly or his key to success on Sunday? I’m in the camp of the former, especially given their solid points lead above the cut line to the Round of 12. Just another reason that I am more than happy with the #11 team that made iFantasyRace.com’s Talladega PROS Rankings in six straight races.
WAGER: [1/2u] Hamlin -110 (DraftKings)
Apples and Oranges: Brad Keselowski -110 vs. Daniel Suarez -110
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keselowski | B | B+ | C+ | B- |
| Suarez | C | C | D- | D+ |
Okay, maybe apples and oranges is a little extreme when it comes to comparing these two teams. But we are talking about 6X Talladega winner Brad Keselowski squaring off against Daniel Suarez, a driver who has not cracked the Top 20 here since 2019. This spring Daniel was trending in the right direction by getting up front and leading the race for a while but could not seal the deal. In similar fashion, a pair of speeding penalties sabotaged what could have been three straight Top 10 finishes for Brad. And it’s not like the veteran has been bulletproof here either, missing the Top 20 four times in the last nine ‘Dega races.
It’s Keselowski’s significantly stronger underlying ratings that seal the deal for me though. He operates with a baseline about 15% higher than Daniel Suarez. At a more lopsided price tag this is a pass for me. But a -110 pick ’em forced me to take a long, hard look at these two. I think it’s reasonable to point at Daniel Suarez’ Joe Gibbs Racing days and acknowledge five straight Top 20 Talladega finishes to begin his Cup Series career. Then you have to respect the other side of the equation: Brad’s victories and Top 10s fueled by regular 90+ ratings that Daniel has yet to produce. Anything goes on Sunday afternoon but the Keselowski side at this price is a sweet deal in my opinion. BOL this weekend!
WAGER: [1/2u] Keselowski -110 (DraftKings)
Surviving the Game
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