And then there were eight. Of course it is a group missing one key name: defending Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson. Talk about an unusual series of events that turned a fairly tame race at the Roval into mayhem after the final restart. An iffy caution with a handful of laps to go bunched up the field and ended the Championship dreams of Larson, Suarez, and Cindric while sealing the deal on our pre-season win total under on the #5 team. It also turned a marginal betting day into a rough landing softened by our guy Paul’s matchup bet. Ironically, his Roval post was titled “What’s Next NASCAR?” – a question that is super relevant after watching another road course race finish a lot like a superspeedway. No crying over spilled milk, however, as the Round of 8 kicks off with the 2022 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Playing the 2022 South Point 400 – Featured Handicap for Las Vegas
NASCAR is the target of a ton of blowback from team owners like Tony Stewart all the way down to small fry bettors and fans like myself. Spiteful penalties levied at outspoken figures like crew chief Rodney Childers and the #41 team for alleged collusion – or whatever the hell you want to call it – in helping Chase Briscoe make the Round of 8 has been met with plenty of resistance. After all, the timing of that pivotal Stage 3 caution is a bit sketchy depending who you ask.
All I can say is that caution flipped my betting card for the worse. Last week’s key drivers Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, and Michael McDowell all qualified well but failed to cash my tickets for various reasons. Suarez was toast with no power steering in Stage 3, Cindric’s crew chief made a poor strategy move at the end of Stage 2, and McDowell fell victim to the cardboard caution. Hey, it happens. Although I want nothing more than an epic bounceback week, there’s not a lot on the early matchup menus that inspired me…except for a plus-money matchup that’s worth a stab.
Joey Logano -130 vs. Bubba Wallace +110
| Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logano | C | B+ | B- |
| Wallace | C | D | B |
Two aspects pulled me onto the Bubba Wallace side of the equation: 1) the skewed price, and 2) these drivers’ results from the second half of the season. It sure as hell wasn’t Bubba’s proficiency at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Two Top 20 finishes in nine Cup Series races in Vegas doesn’t cut it. Joey Logano, on the other hand, had a dominant stretch here from 2014-2020 that included a pair of wins and nine straight Top 10 finishes. So give the #22 Penske Ford team the clear edge in that aspect. There is a bit more to the story though. Ryan at ifantasyrace.com draws a lot of similarities between Las Vegas and Kansas with Charlotte, Texas, and even Michigan providing extra data points for comparison.
Selected 2022 Races: Finishing Position & Race Rating
| Kansas #1 | Charlotte 600* | Michigan | Kansas #2 | Texas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logano | 17 – 67.8 | 20 – 83.3 | 4 – 100.0 | 17 – 90.3 | 2 – 111.6 |
| Wallace | 10 – 81.8 | 28 – 61.4 | 2 – 118.4 | 1 – 125.9 | 25 – 50.8 |
The biggest concern among these comparable races is Texas. Bubba’s failure to menace in the Lone Star State after seemingly finding his groove in this scenario via Pocono, Michigan, and Kansas is an issue. Taking a non-playoff driver against a playoff driver is asking for trouble, though I suspect that consideration pushed the premium price on Joey Logano. To be completely honest, my handicap falls heavily on what Bubba pulled off at Kansas this year. Everything else wants to pull me away from backing him and the #45 team this weekend. This is the spot I want to be in, however, with a plus-money live dog who blew a lot of doors off this summer in Kansas.
WAGER: Wallace +110 (DraftKings)
This matchup is available elsewhere at varying price points. +102 at FanDuel is okay but -114 at BetRivers doesn’t cut it for me. That’s a 5% haircut from DraftKings’ price and takes a lot of the incentive out of the position. Another market-based perspective lies in the Top 10 offerings, in which five different books have these two teams priced evenly. There isn’t a complete correlation between Top 10 prices and matchup value, as Logano’s “higher ceiling” is the element disputing an expectation for parity. This might be a one and done kind of weekend for me, especially if Saturday’s practice sessions bode poorly for Bubba and the #45 team. BOL!
NFL, Anyone?
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