The Minnesota Twins entered the 2021 season with high hopes of a third consecutive AL Central crown. Reality proved to be quite the bear for the defending champs from the get-go. Instead of a repeat, the Twins cratered to the bottom of the heap while the Chicago White Sox completed their rise to the top. Until the playoffs, that is. Cleveland’s search for its role in the MLB landscape eventually took a back seat to the promise of Detroit’s future stars and Kansas City’s lack of quit. Hell, only 7 games separated the four teams that finished behind the champs! So who separates from the pack in 2022?
This is one in a series of six Divisional Futures Previews for the 2022 MLB season – each a combination of art, science, and everything in between resting on player projections from some of the sharpest minds in statistical analysis – and the starting point for our season-long and daily handicaps. This annual tradition is an incremental process from season to season that’s full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of DraftKings.)
2022 Division Winner: Chicago White Sox
2022 AL Central Final Standings
- Chicago White Sox (93-69)
- Cleveland Indians (80-82)
- Detroit Tigers (77-85)
- Kansas City Royals (74-88)
- Minnesota Twins (73-89)
Chicago White Sox 2022 Win Total: Open 91.5
2021 Win Total: Over 91.5 (93-69 / Pythag = 97)
What to make of Chicago’s dominance in the AL Central last year? Six American League teams finished the regular season within a range of 90-95 wins, yet the Central contained only one such team: the White Sox. Their 13-game margin above the rest of the division reflected a record that boasted twelve games to the good over these familiar foes. Considering that half of the South Siders’ 24-game finish above .500 came from within, what does a hypothetical rising tide in the Central mean for the defending champs?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Kendall Graveman – RHP (RP)
- Joe Kelly – RHP (RP)
- Josh Harrison – INF
Subtractions:
- Carlos Rodon – LHP (SP)
- Cesar Hernandez – 2B
- Ryan Tepera – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 87 – 99
— Rotation —
This is a club that has typically relied on its offense to compensate for a lack of reliable pitching. In 2021, however, the White Sox pushed to the postseason behind the second-highest run production in the American League – and a little help from its rotation. That’s actually a severe understatement. Chicago’s starters delivered the fourth-best FIP of all 30 clubs, a testament of just how improved this unit was. A piece of that puzzle could be the effect that first year pitching coach Ethan Katz had on the staff.
Chicago White Sox Starting Pitching, 2017-2021
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIP | 3.73 | 4.61 | 5.03 | 5.18 | 5.52 |
| FIP Ranking | 4th | 18th | 25th | 29th | 30th |
| xFIP | 3.85 | 4.47 | 4.89 | 5.24 | 5.25 |
| WAR | 19.3 | 3.8* | 10.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 |
The rotation’s steady climb had a rock-bottom start back in 2017, took a step forward in the COVID-shortened 2020, then broke out last year to become one of the best and most reliable rotations in the majors. White Sox lifer Carlos Rodon finally put it together after six seasons in Chicago with a 4.9-WAR, 2.65-FIP campaign featuring only 24 starts. His production will certainly be missed after management did not extend him a qualifying offer in the offseason. One could say that Rodon was the much-needed yin to Dallas Keuchel’s yang: 30 starts at 5.23 FIP/4.74 xFIP.
Assuming that 34-year-old Keuchel can throw another 160 innings at a sub-5.00 FIP, the White Sox rotation has plenty of room to maintain respectability in 2022. It’s the 4+ WAR seasons that Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, and Lucas Giolito delivered that could be tough to run back. Cease and Lynn are on course for a drop-off around 1 win each while Gio has the goods to maintain or improve – with the caveat that Lucas can get his ground ball rate back above 40% and strikeout rate above 30%. This is still an above-average rotation, but one that I don’t see achieving last year’s success.
Filling in the Gap With Upside
Things really get interesting when contemplating how the middle of the rotation is filled – not necessarily Rodon’s slot or the bottom of the list. That’s where 25-year-old Michael Kopech comes in. He opted out in 2020 after TJ surgery and rebounded with a 44-appearance, 2.97-FIP campaign including four spot starts. Spring Training will determine whether the kid is ready for a regular starting role or at least some sort of bullpen/rotation hybrid. Kopech’s fastball/slider combo was good enough for a 4.29 K/BB ratio that maintained a sub-9% barrel rate. Optimistically speaking, continued progression should give the club a positive outlook in the neighborhood of 2-3 wins. That won’t necessarily replace Carlos Rodon’s massive 2021 season though the White Sox will benefit greatly when this largely-overlooked righty makes his mark in the rotation.
— Bullpen —
Last year’s midseason crosstown trade for Craig Kimbrel should make moving Kopech to the rotation that much easier. Michael was a cornerstone piece of the bullpen’s front line consisting of Liam Hendriks, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer. Declining Carlos Rodon’s option and picking up Kimbrel’s arguably tipped management’s hand on this thought process. It makes sense even if the veteran reliever’s $16M price tag seems a bit pricey even on the heels of a 2.43-FIP season reminiscent of his early days in Atlanta. That said, having an accomplished setup man to complement Hendriks after his 38-save season makes sense to a lot of front offices.
The only problem I see with the Hendriks-Kimbrel duo is what little upside each reliever provides over last season. Note that the White Sox had the latter’s services for the second half only – the meh half of his resurgent season. So Kimbrel should be an even swap for Kopech in the bullpen after regressing the veteran’s super low .243 BABIP in 2021. Can 33-year-old Liam throw down a third straight sub-2.5 FIP season and a BABIP around 50 points under league average? Unlikely, though bringing in free agent Kendall Graveman helps offsets some of this falloff. Swapping Joe Kelly for Ryan Tepera projects as a wash – Tepera has to fade the backside of 2021’s 2.79 FIP/3.64 xFIP. Even if their back-end relievers aren’t as dominant as last season, Chicago’s bullpen is still Top 10 caliber.
— Position Players —
Chicago’s calling card going into the 2021 season was offense despite some understated moves to bolster their pitching staff. But if any weak spot revealed itself, it was fielding yet again. Aside from a good defensive showing in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, this area was the lone glaring deficiency for the ChiSox. Can Danny Mendick and Romy Gonzalez fortify the middle infield after Nick Madrigal was dealt to the Cubbies? A similar question applies with Seby Zavala backing up Yasmani Grandal at the catcher spot. Assuming we get a full season of Luis Robert in center, everything tallies up to a modest improvement for Chicago’s defense. Nonetheless, defense should continue to be the Sox’ weak spot.
Maintaining a Bias Toward Offense
Teams rarely have every base covered, so Chicago favoring batting over fielding is far from a Phillies-eque scenario where bad defense and subpar offense routinely go hand-in-hand (sorry for the cheap shot, D Nice). I am comfortable making the case for the White Sox notching another 110-ish wRC+ season at the plate despite some questions at the corner outfield positions. Left fielder Eloy Jimenez’ torn pec at the tail end of Spring Training left him with a very short 2021 season. Eloy had as much action as the COVID season (55 games, low-200 PAs) but with a 30% reduction in offensive productivity. That said, his spectacular 2020 was likely an outlier so projecting a rebound somewhere in between makes perfect sense to me.
It’s fair to say that right field poses a large question mark after prospect Andrew Vaughn was prematurely tossed into the mix. After all, Jimenez’ injury, the failed homecoming of Adam Eaton, and the rapid demise of DH Yermin Mercedes created enough urgency to call Vaughn into his first action above high-A ball. A .235/.309/.396 slash line and 5 run fielding liability are less than ideal numbers, though his contributions should be incrementally better in 2022. Asking for 10% more production at the plate from Andrew is not unreasonable if he is left to develop his skills in AAA for the first couple months of the season.
No Issues With the Status Quo
When nearly three-quarters of your team’s position player value hinges on five key guys, their trajectory IS the barometer for 2022. Chicago boasts a dynamic nucleus of SS Tim Anderson, 3B Yoan Moncada, C Yasmani Grandal, CF Luis Robert, and 1B Jose Abreu that is primed for business as usual. Plus Grandal and Abreu are the only players of this group in their 30s. The 33-year-old Grandal should rebound from his bizarre, injury-shortened 2021 campaign that featured a 23.2% BB rate, 21.9% K rate, and .280 ISO. If Abreu is unable to mitigate the inevitable effects of aging and post a 120-ish wRC+, Yasmani’s should quickly turns to must when it comes to maintaining the status quo.
Chicago’s young crop of 20-somethings is headlined by dynamic centerfielder Luis Robert. The phenom broke through the 3-WAR threshold via a .338/.378/.567 slash line despite missing most of the season. Does Luis’ .394 BABIP, low walk rate, high strikeout rate, and less than 300 PAs call for a touch of regression? Of course. Be sure to temper that regression with a talent level justifying a full-season .330 BABIP and this 22-year-old physical specimen should gain his club an additional 1-2 wins.
It’s almost as if Robert is the outfield analog to third baseman Yoan Moncada. The gifted hitter provides great defense at the hot corner, culminating in 4-WAR production. Plus T.A. is poised to rattle off his fourth straight above-average offensive season after finishing 2021 in the midst of talented shortstops Carlos Correa, Bo Bichette, and Xander Bogaerts – a reasonable tradeoff for Anderson’s erratic defense. There is enough balance amongst this core to maintain their high-powered offense, so expect the ChiSox’ position players to rinse and repeat their strong 2021 campaign and help their club finish on top of the AL Central yet again.
Cleveland Guardians 2022 Win Total: Open 76.5
2021 Result: Under 81.5 (80-82 / Pythag = 80)
Oh, so close. The Indians-turned-Guardians fell just short of their season win total – and a winning record for that matter. Hell, if it wasn’t for their intra-division 43-33 record they would have been in a tougher spot after their first full post-liquidation season. Will they have the same luxury of a down AL Central in 2022? Regardless, general manager Mike Chernoff and his team continue to be bullish on the rebuild’s success. And you know what? I might be too.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Luke Maile – C
Subtractions:
- Roberto Perez – C
- Nick Wittgren – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 76 – 86
— Rotation —
In several respects, Cleveland quietly snapped an eight year run of winning baseball. It was also just the second season in that timeframe that their rotation was not top 5 in WAR. Not only did they miss that mark, their starting pitchers’ 7.1 WAR and 4.69 FIP ranked 23rd in the majors. That’s an area that manager Terry Francona wants to avoid at all costs this year. 2020 Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber missing half of the season with shoulder issues did not help the cause, leaving his less-accomplished partners to shoulder the burden.
Getting back to elite status is easier said than done, especially without elite talent. Bieber’s supporting cast chalked up another important year of on-the-job experience consisting of 92 starts amongst this season’s projected #2 through #5 starters. In a simplistic view of things, you have Cal Quantrill and Zach Plesac in the 1.5-2.0 WAR tier then Aaron Civale and Tristan McKenzie in the 1.0-1.5 range. Other projections are slightly less optimistic with about a 5.0 WAR value for the foursome. Any way you slice it, everyone is expected to up their workload by another 20+ innings to allow rookies Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges to develop in the bullpen.
Making the Most of Their Reps
Increased volume from the core is a simple way for the Cleveland rotation to make headway in 2022. And the timing is right for those guys in their mid-20s who are ramping into these responsibilities. Cal Quantrill led the Bieber-less pack last season but his declining strikeout rate (19.6%) and .267 BABIP call for a tougher row to hoe. It’s a common growing pain for a young contact pitcher, yet another 20 innings or so should maintain last year’s valuation – especially if his improved slider and changeup stay strong. Zach Plesac finds himself in a similar position with a strikeout rate that plummeted from 27.7% to 16.7% and a spiked hard hit rate. But the righty tweaked his approach to generate more ground balls, which should pay off if he figures out what went wrong with his fastball.
Aaron Civale’s struggle with hard contact throughout his second season in the rotation resulted in a whopping 23 home runs. That sort of thing can happen when your fastball is ineffective and brand new splitter has a rough debut. Add in another 21 bombs launched off of 24-year-old Triston McKenzie and the Cleveland’s starters amassed the seventh most homers (139). (To their credit, Eli Morgan and JC Mejia were lit up for 31 home runs in just 131.2 innings last year as starters.) The lanky right-hander’s problems were compounded by a shaky 11.7% walk rate. There’s that dreaded mix of walks and homers again. I do like his 12.6% swinging strike rate and 27.5% strikeout rate though. Perhaps pitching coach Carl Willis pushes him towards his effective sliders and curveballs more frequently. Then again, I’m oversimplifying the matter.
An Ace Up the Sleeve
A full, healthy season from Shane Bieber will go a long way in helping the Guardians’ cause. Hell, the kid had it going on last season before injuries derailed his Cy Young award defense campaign. Bieber’s 33.1% strikeout rate was seventh amongst starters who pitched 90+ innings and his swinging strike rate was an astounding 16.2%. Despite the curve betraying him, Shane’s slider was on point and propelled him to a 3.03 FIP/2.91 xFIP. Expect another low-3.00s FIP effort in the face of last year’s .327 BABIP for a run at another 5+ WAR season. Bieber’s supporting cast lends a lot of variance to the rotation, but a healthy ace plus another year under their belts raises the group’s expected value by 2+ wins.
— Bullpen —
Cleveland’s decent, yet unassuming, bullpen was punctuated by their fireball-hurling closer Emmanuel Clase. The 24-year-old seemingly burst out of nowhere to nail down 24 saves for the Guardians, blowing just 5 opportunities. By now you’ve heard of his 100+ mph heater and wipeout slider that were brutally difficult to square up (29.1% hard hit, 67.6% ground ball, and 16.8% swinging strike rates). The problem with young pitchers who put up such eye-popping numbers – like 1.29 ERA and 2.11 FIP – is determining if such elite production is sustainable. Clase’s corresponding 2.60 xFIP calls for some reversion, though mid-2.00s FIP production should maintain his value around 2.0 WAR in 2022.
A top-end closer needs a dependable crew to be fully effective, and this 2022 group could go either way. The good news is that last year’s #2 gas can Nick Wittgren is gone, though Trevor Stephan is back. That leaves the other side of the coin, which is a relief corps full of unproven young talent. Guys like Eli Morgan, Logan Allen, Sam Hentges, and Nick Sandlin cut their teeth in the majors in 2021 and should build on that brief experience with better years ahead. Cleveland should maintain a league average-ish relief unit unless their young arms collapse and James Karinchak has lost his mojo.
James Karinchak, Split Season Metrics (2021)
| 4/1 – 6/21 | 6/22 – 8/27* | |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 2.76 | 6.23 |
| FIP | 3.05 | 6.35 |
| xFIP | 2.81 | 5.15 |
| BABIP | .196 | .262 |
| BB% | 14.3% | 13.1% |
| K% | 43.6% | 19.2% |
| Sw. Str.% | 15.5% | 8.7% |
2021 was a tale of two seasons for the typically dependable James Karinchak. A business as usual great start by the right-hander took a nose dive right around the time that MLB cracked down on pitchers’ sticky substances. Then speculation ran amok after the White Sox broadcasters caught onto him in early June. Coincidentally – or not – the league’s ban later that month aligns with James’ second-half collapse. Given the disparity in his 2021 season, one could argue that the fate of Clase’s main setup man is just as pivotal as Karinchak’s this year.
— Position Players —
I’m not too far off base saying that Jose Ramirez is the Shane Bieber of the Guardians lineup. Much like Cleveland’s Cy Young award winner, their 3x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger third baseman stands head and shoulders above his teammates. With the exception of a “down” 2019 season, Jose has been the model of elite-level consistency. That consistency spans both offense and defense, as well as effectiveness from both sides of the plate. Ramirez’ career 125 wRC+ vs. lefties and 127 vs. righties was amplified last year into 135 and 139, respectively. And all signs point to business as usual in 2022. If any backslide is expected, it will likely come by falling short of his career-best 10 DRS in 2021.
Speaking of defense, Cleveland gets a big lift in the outfield with mid-season acquisition Myles Straw. The former Astro is a net-positive fielder taking over the premium position of center field. That’s enough to move the team’s needle upward – accounting for a potential Ramirez reversion and more. He joins a mishmash of good-fielding outfielders like Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado, although Josh Naylor wields a bigger bat and a subpar glove. A healthy Miles Straw solidifies the outfield just like Jose Ramirez does the infield along with solid fielding middle infielders Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. There aren’t a lot of holes on the field, so I expect Cleveland’s fielding to take another step towards getting back to their recent top tier defensive seasons.
Where’s the Beef?
It wasn’t that long ago that the Guardians fielded a decent lineup in tandem with premium pitching. The last couple seasons, however, have produced more feathers than chicken. For starters, I’m not betting against Jose Ramirez producing at his typical +30% level of offense. Myles Straw’s speed and .340-ish OBP in the leadoff spot is a significant kickstart to the Cleveland lineup – especially if Josh Naylor and his bat aren’t ready for start of the season. Plus a healthy Franmil Reyes brings that powerful windmill bat to clean up the bases. But it’s 24-year-old outfield prospect Steven Kwan who offers significant upside at the plate after crushing AA (159 wRC+, .950 OPS) and AAA (144 wRC+, .903 OPS) last year. Even conservative estimates for a rookie season in the 110 wRC+, .750 OPS neighborhood are notable upgrades over what Amed Rosario and Harold Ramirez provided last year in left.
Younger role players Yu Chang and Owen Miller are expected to take the proverbial step forward in 2022 – another small lift for last year’s bottom five on-base team. That same case can be made for Andres Gimenez in his expanded role at second base, especially after a disappointing .218/.282/.351 follow-up to a promising rookie year in New York. Unfortunately, Cleveland’s catching situation is defensive-oriented to the point that Tito probably hopes for the Austin Hedges of 2018 to come out of Spring Training. Odds are the guy is stuck on the wrong side of the Mendoza line once again. At least he set a low bar for the club last year and offers excellent defense for the young starters. Regardless, I agree with what I am reading – an additional 3-6% of offensive productivity from the Guardians.
WAGER: Guardians Over 73.5 -114 (3/13 BetRivers)
Detroit Tigers 2022 Win Total: Open 78.5
2021 Result: Over 68.5 (77-85 / Pythag = 75)
Detroit presented one of the more intriguing rebuild scenarios going into the 2021 season. Yet variance up and down the roster made it tricky to reasonably project what the Tigers would deliver on the field. You had a pair of stud starting pitching prospects, breakout hitters looking to fade some nasty regression, and the Miggy situation looming in the corner. April was dismal, then Detroit closed out the final five months with 69 wins – enough to cover their season win total in spite of the rough start. With the bar set higher this year at 78.5, can we say that this club has improved enough to meet these expectations?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP (SP)
- Javier Baez – SS
- Tucker Barnhart – C
- Andrew Chafin – LHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Nico Goodrum – INF
- Matthew Boyd – LHP (SP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 67 – 84
— Rotation —
What was a weak spot for the Tigers last season becomes less of a liability as their youth movement pairs with 28-year-old lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Eduardo’s leadership is invaluable to Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, as he brings talent and experience that this club crucially needs to climb the AL Central ladder. The six-year veteran is poised to post another high-3s WAR with a sub-4.00 FIP. Rodriguez leaves lefty-unfriendly Fenway Park behind – and a nasty .363 BABIP – though the Detroit defense has not been good for a better part of a decade. Regardless, the guy has consistently limited hard contact and generated solid ground ball rates throughout his career while eating innings. E-Rod is the ace this staff needs.
That leaves an upper rotation propped up by the dynamic duo of Skubal and Mize. Casey Mize trotted out a wicked slider and other improved secondary pitches to help take the rough edges off of his fastball. As for Tarik Skubal, his overall progression in 2021 was tempered by the reality of hard contact home runs. Another year under their belts with 10-20 more innings at a low-4.00s FIP level should result in a combined production close to 4 WAR. That mark would double last season’s.
Picking Up the Slack
The Rodriguez signing indirectly plugged a gap left by Spencer Turnbull. He’ll miss the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Questions still surround the bottom of Detroit’s rotation comprised of Matt Manning and, well, it’s anybody’s guess on March 18th. 24-year-old Manning has a modest 1-WAR floor and upside of an additional half win if he further develops his secondary pitches to reduce hard contact and walks. There’s plenty of questions and inexperience with this group, so I’m expecting a modest tick up from bottom third to mid pack.
— Bullpen —
Last year’s bullpen received a major shot in the arm from a reinvented Michael Fulmer who provided a big 57.0 innings for a subpar unit. After missing all of 2019 with an elbow injury then a rough rebound in 2020, the former starter got his strikeout rate back up, walks low, and home run rate down. There was a lot to like about his 3.28 FIP/3.64 xFIP in relief. An 86.0% strand rate backs up a reasonable assumption for minor reversion, though the Tigers are very fortunate to have Fulmer as a reliable setup man to supplement closer Gregory Soto in high-leverage situations.
Soto’s kryptonite continued to be free passes. 2021 marked yet another season with 5+ walks/9 innings, adding unnecessary drama to those aforementioned sticky spots. Still, Gregory gets a ton of strikeouts and has a tendency to generate ground ball contact. And that’s not great when the defense behind you is no good. Free agent lefty Andrew Chafin gives this crew a shot in the arm as a workhorse setup man via a sub-4.00 FIP, 60+ innings.
While the Chafin-Fulmer-Soto trio looks good to go, the rest of this unit drops off into a tier of 4+ FIP bulk relievers like Kyle Funkhouser, Jose Cisnero, Joe Jimenez, and Alex Lange. These guys walk a lot of batters and will depend heavily on run support to stay in the late game. The bullpen could be a key stumbling block in 2022 – below average, but not terrible.
— Position Players —
Notwithstanding the long-term effects of Javier Baez’ 6-year/$140M contract, the defensive and offensive skills he brings to Detroit’s middle infield are severely needed. While many fans wanted general manager Al Avila to sign Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, Baez is a major upgrade for 2022. He’s a natural fielder who can play both positions and is all upside at the shortstop position – a black hole where Harold Castro, Niko Goodrum, and Zack Short played at a replacement level last year.
Baez’ projections from trusted sources range from 2-4 WAR – and I am admittedly on the optimistic side. His defense alone is worth a lot to this specific team. Javy joins forces with Johnathan Schoop in his more useful fielding position of second base. That opens the door for the much-hyped big bat of 22-year-old prospect Spencer Torkelson. At least the spot appears on the front end of Spring Training. If he takes the step forward that we expect, Torkelson is the kind of 25-HR, .500-SLG first baseman this lineup needs. After all, more slugging typically earns you greater run-scoring predictability.
Sustained Mojo?
…the crop of breakout players that have most people’s attention. Young infielder Willi Castro led the way, slashing .349/.381/.550 in part due to an insane .448 BABIP. In fact, Castro, Jeimer Candelario, and JaCoby Jones all finished the season with uncharacteristic BABIPs well above .350 – putting them in line for regression in 2021.
2021 AL Central Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – February 28, 2021
The wicked witch known as negative regression haunted both Willi Castro and JaCoby Jones last year. Fortunately, Detroit’s offseason moves created a much stronger infield with the realization that Jeimer Candelario might actually be legit. Candelario smacked a league-leading 42 doubles last year with plate discipline that helps churn through a lineup featuring guys who can get on base and run a la Akil Baddoo and Robbie Grossman. This shapes up to be a more consistent, powerful, and well-rounded offense with so much coming together for the 2022 season.
Detroit’s Backstop Tandem
Trading an infield prospect for 2x Gold Glove catcher Tucker Barnhart pairs nicely with Detroit’s maturing rotation. The former Cincinnati Red joins the incumbent Eric Haase, a guy with strong splits against left-handed pitching who is well-suited for a backup/platoon role. Although Tucker doesn’t wow us very often with the bat, he does excellent work behind the plate. Plus the veteran game caller gives Haase a little more rest as the season grinds on.
Big upgrades at catcher and middle infield will result in a significantly better fielding team – one that slashes about half of last year’s run savings deficit. These two positions alone combined for over half of the runs attributed to the defense in 2021. Pay attention early this season as Detroit’s bolstered lineup and stronger rotation could hold more line value with first 5 innings bets rather than full game wagers. Their harsh bullpen could leave them hanging a little too frequently, so caveat emptor to Tigers bettors.
Kansas City Royals 2022 Win Total: Open 75.5
2021 Result: Over 72.5 (74-88 / Pythag = 71)
Kansas City win total over ticket holders endured a late sweat as the Royals won four of six to get there on September 29th. And for Opening Day backers like myself, the first inning of the entire season was a massive sweat job. But it was all the stuff in between that pushed the organization to take a step back to evaluate its direction. After a good first month of the 2021 season, manager Mike Matheny’s club experienced painful streaks of 0-11, 1-10, and 0-9…all before the All-Star Break! New season, new hopes…can the Royals turn the corner and make up ground on the White Sox?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Taylor Clarke – RHP (RP)
- Zack Greinke – RHP (SP)
- Amir Garrett – LHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Jakob Junis – RHP (SP)
- Mike Minor – LHP (SP)
- Danny Duffy – LHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 73 – 75
— Position Players —
At least the future is bright for the 2015 World Series Champion franchise as a lot of talent is coming up through the minors these days. 2022 appears to be the year in which the organization pivots towards these young guns. My personal handicapping challenge is gauging their impact this season. Step one in resurrecting a winning tradition in western Missouri starts with providing MLB #2 prospect Bobby Witt, Jr. and Kyle Isbel plenty of playing time. Especially with 21-year-old Witt crushing AA & AAA and Isbel making his presence known in a limited stint with the big boys. So what needs to happen to push this K.C. lineup back to respectability?
Don’t get me wrong, this offense had its strengths last year. Despite shipping a struggling Jorge Soler to eventual champion Atlanta at the trade deadline, the Royals posted the sixth best batting average (.249) and most stolen bases (124) in the majors. The flip side to this success was a pure lack of power. They suffered the MLB’s sixth lowest wRC+ (89) primarily due to seventh lowest slugging (.396). Inconsistent scoring is a significant challenge when paired with a bottom third pitching staff.
Turning the Page
Expectations are clearly higher in 2022 as the Royals’ pieces start to come together. Catcher Salvator Perez’ recent resurgence led to another premium season at the plate (48 HR, 127 wRC+) – except his defense tailed off to a level unseen since 2011. Father Time is undefeated, they say, and Salvy is now 31 years old. You can certainly hear the DH spot calling the ironman backstop louder and louder as wear and tear accumulates. Fortunately, the club has a good defensive catcher in Cam Gallagher ready to take on an increased workload. The downside is he’d be lucky to crack the .400 slugging plateau, though it’s the shortest route to getting super-talented prospect MJ Melendez quality MLB exposure this season.
The DH role is also calling the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi to spare him some mileage. Now 26 years old, the once-promising shortstop’s future is uncertain after delivering only one plus-hitting season out of six with the club. In fact, Mondesi’s 2018 campaign (.498 SLG, 113 wRC+) was the only one featuring a strikeout rate firmly below 30% (26.5%). So it’s safe to say that he and Hunter Dozier are on their way to being marginalized by K.C.’s fresh faces. Dozier’s 123 wRC+ 2019 season seems so far away after scuffling through a -21 DRS, .216/.285/.394 2021. Dozier’s reduced playing time and Perez getting more breaks in the field should cover small fielding regression in the outfield, helping maintain the Royals’ already-good defense. An effort short of .230/.300/.425 could be the death blow to Hunter’s days in Kansas City.
Finding the Right Combination
Accommodating an influx of young talent on the 26-man roster rests heavily on making the right moves at the right times. Job #1 is deciding where to put future star Bobby Witt, Jr. He is undoubtedly the franchise’s shortstop of the future – the catch is that Nicky Lopez turned a lot of heads with a surprising .365 OBP, 22 SB season while fielding that position pretty well. But Nicky overshot all expectations, setting a massive 4.4 WAR bar that is nearly impossible to top in 2022 – especially with a .347 BABIP haunting him.
Squeezing in Witt with Lopez and the reliable 3-WAR Whit Merrifield at second base means Hunter Dozier goes to first base where it’s sink or swim. If so, Carlos Santana is on the bench ready to take the starts against lefties. Plus Nick Pratto is bound to get called up after smashing the minors with 36 homers and 155 wRC+ last season in Arkansas and Omaha. Kansas City’s outfield is nice and stable, even with modest expectations for the young Kyle Isbel and the defense-first centerfielder Michael A. Taylor. Both Taylor and last season’s pickup Andrew Benintendi can run, an integral part of the team’s DNA these days. The new blood improves this team’s offense by a solid 5% or so but there’s plenty of work to be done before they’re a true threat.
— Rotation —
For better or worse, the Royals rotation is pretty close to copy and paste from 2021. Dan Szymborski succinctly called their returning foursome “surprisingly competent”, for whatever that is worth. That quartet would have been the grizzled 34-year-old Mike Minor, now-veteran Brad Keller, Brady Singer, and Kris Bubic. But Mike Minor was shipped a few days ago to Cincinnati for the tall, left-handed reliever Amir Garrett. Opportunity then knocked in the form of an old friend and free agent, Zack Greinke. The 38-year-old is back in K.C. after leaving in 2011, checking many of the boxes that Minor left behind. Let’s call it a wash of 160-inning, mid-4.00s FIP veteran starters.
Otherwise, I can’t disagree with ZIPS’ and his counterpart Steamer’s call for each to essentially repeat their 1.5-2.5 WAR performances. Concern remains around how the team makes up another 50 starts outside of these four. Greinke can still deliver 160+ innings at his age but the others finished their seasons around 130. And only Keller has had the time to develop to where 150+ innings seems reasonable. Here’s how I see it with this group:
- Brad Keller: It’s hard for me to forget him nearly hanging my Opening Day bet out to dry. Outside of that, I’m concerned that his rookie magic is long gone and I don’t know how to project him after a 44.3% hard hit season and massive .347 BABIP as a sinker-baller.
- Brady Singer: Singer’s upside is primarily associated with a greater workload despite giving off some American Psycho vibes last year. If he stays precise with his fastball/slider combo, hitters play right into the strength of the Royals’ infield defense.
- Kris Bubic: Last year’s 103.2 innings in the rotation were brutalized by home runs, though his 5.60 FIP/4.44 xFIP calls for positive regression and more value to this group.
Reinforcements on the Bump?
24-year-old Carlos Hernandez is set to get more work in the rotation after earning a second-half starter role. It was his upper-90s heat and decent slider that quickly elevated him from the bullpen after the All-Star Break. You could follow Hernandez’ trial by fire as it went from 3.24 FIP/4.10 xFIP in 27.1 innings of relief to 4.47 FIP/5.42 xFIP in twice as many innings as starter. And much of that spike is attributed to losing nearly half of his strikeout rate. Another year under his belt means working through those mid-to-upper 4.00s FIP growing pains and inching closer to a 150+ inning season in the rotation. The K.C. farm system has more reinforcements on the verge of impacting the big league club – just don’t expect meaningful impact until 2023. Keep an eye on Hernandez to see if he can stay in the rotation this season.
— Bullpen —
A couple factors are set to reduce Kansas City’s league-average bullpen value by about one win. I can’t call swapping out sluggish veterans Greg Holland, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis for inexperienced middle relief a detriment – those three actually cost the team last year. The first negative is losing Carlos Hernandez to the rotation and essentially filling that spot with fireballer Domingo Tapia. Questions surround Tapia’s deceptive 3.35 FIP/4.43 xFIP season that featured a subpar 8.2% swinging strike rate. With that much heat, Tapia’s swing and miss numbers need to be much higher.
The second contributing factor to the bullpen’s slight falloff comes from back end duo Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont. They combined for 3.1 WAR in 2021 by shouldering 140 innings yet each had xFIPs just about 1 run higher than their FIPs. Plus that was a max workload so negative regression is the driving force here. At least Barlow has good swing-and-miss stuff and proved his durability over the last three seasons. Staumont is a bit more concerning after his strikeout and swinging strike rates both came back down to earth. Incoming left-hander Amir Garrett could be that third key high-leverage reliever the Royals bullpen needs – then again, he may not be. After failing to seize the opportunity of starting the 2021 season as Cincinnati’s starter, projections for a low-4.00s FIP rebound take a little bit of the edge off this group.
Minnesota Twins 2022 Win Total: Open 75.5, Now 77.5
2021 Result: Under 88.5 (73-89 / Pythag = 71)
As much as I like the Twins to win this close race, my money is behind them to top 89 wins. Kansas City, Detroit, and – to a certain extent – Cleveland are all shaping up to be sub-.500 teams, offering plenty of opportunities for both the Twins and White Sox to push their win totals into the 90s. Minnesota’s solid pitching staff and excellent lineup should keep them marching back into the 2021 postseason and cashing this ticket.
2021 AL Central Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – February 28, 2021
Oops! There are swings and misses and then there are big whiffs like that. No Bomba Squad + no pitching = no bueno. Was the 2021 season a massive setback, or is this Twins squad primed to make a comeback?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Dylan Bundy – RHP (SP)
- Sonny Gray – RHP (SP)
- Gary Sanchez – C
- Gio Urshela – 3B
Subtractions:
- Andrelton Simmons – SS
- Mitch Garver – C
- Josh Donaldson – 3B
- Ben Rortvedt – C
- Alex Colome – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 78 – 81
— Position Players —
Minnesota shorting their win total by 15 wins is an indictment of the entire club, though some leniency is owed to the offense. Their bats ranked ninth in slugging percentage (.423) and wRC+ (101), but lagged with what matters most – scoring runs. Their 729 runs landed square in the middle of the pack. A .282 BABIP is partially to blame for the Twins not fully converting their work at the plate into runs. But baseball is complicated that way. If you’re reading this, you probably already know that.
Building Around Buxton
The Twins would like nothing more than for their uber-talented centerfielder Byron Buxton to be a pillar of this lineup. Unfortunately, Ben Clemens’ observation that “Buxton is either hurt or great” speaks to the all-or-nothing proposition that the 28-year-old presents. So Minnesota wisely loaded up his 7-year contract extension with incentives that beg him to rack up more than 500 plate appearances – something he hasn’t done since 2017. In fact, Buxton’s high water mark in the meantime was just 295 PAs.
Buxton’s 10 defensive runs saved were the fifth most of all center fielders that logged 100+ innings at the position. Adding more context is the fact that every other fielder above him on that list worked at least 200 more innings! Being on the field is paramount for such an irreplaceable player. Case in point, all six Twins who shared center fielding duties with Byron were negative defenders at the position – including Max Kepler who is excellent in his native right field spot. Buxton in center and Kepler in right is a monster 25 DRS, 115 wRC+ combination. When Byron is out for prolonged periods of time, the outfield crumbles like a house of cards.
On the most fundamental level, Byron Buxton is the catalyst for the Twins lineup. If he stays relatively healthy this season, the outfield defense is around 10 runs better with him on the field. The offense is that much better as well – even when you discount Buxton’s inflated .306/.358/.647 slash line from 2021. But the biggest issue is clearly health and availability. Figuring that out is no easy task. Two of the sharpest player projection sources have a huge 227 plate appearance spread for Byron!
Making Moves With Tradeoffs
Less than a month ago, I would have said that continuity in the Twins lineup would give them a head start in 2022. Then the front office went and made moves with the Rangers that quickly spun into a deal with the Yankees. Catcher Gary Sanchez and third baseman Gio Urshela come to Minnesota as third baseman catchers Ben Rortvedt and Mitch Garver join third baseman Josh Donaldson on their way out of the Twin Cities. Sanchez falls short of Garver both with the bat and behind the plate, though Mitch has been unreliable when it comes to health/durability. A similar tradeoff faces the Donaldson-Urshela swap at third, where the senior Donaldson holds a 20-30% offensive edge and stronger defense but is 36-year-old.
Otherwise, shortstop Andrelton Simmons was the lone everyday starter lost to free agency. Simmons’ unmitigated disaster at the plate means that Jorge Polanco offers a 50% better bat at the position. But the club will certainly miss his fielding prowess. 15 runs saved at a premium position is especially hard to make up! And when you consider offense alone, there is considerable upside via a stronger sophomore season from Alex Kiriloff and his repaired wrist. First baseman Miguel Sano offers 40-home run streaky power in the midst of multiple .270 or better hitters – none of which are older than 30.
The rookie platoon of Trevor Larnach and Brent Rooker in left field needs to pick things up after manning a position at near-league bottom production in 2021. If Larnach figures out how to hit something other than a fastball, his power could spell trouble. Additionally, rookies Nick Gordon and the untested Jose Miranda should have opportunities as outfield and infield depth, respectively. If I lazily split the difference between Byron Buxton’s playing time expectations, this team stands to increase its offensive production and repeat as a sound defense.
— Rotation —
If the Twins’ offense is to take another step forward, how much cooperation will their pitching staff offer? Fortunately, Minnesota’s farm system is loaded with starting pitching talent. Until that talent translates into major league production, this rotation is firmly set on a collision course with mediocrity. Jose Berrios is gone. Kenta Maeda is recovering from Tommy John surgery. And in comes Dylan Bundy to replace the limited production from the departed Michael Pineda. Bundy’s 5.51 FIP/4.66 xFIP follow up to a phenomenal 2.95 FIP/3.75 xFIP 2020 season retrospectively screamed small sample size! That two-season stint saw Dylan’s 27.0% strikeout rate plummet to 21.2% with a career low 9.5% swinging strike rate. Don’t bet against the 29-year-old rebounding from those lows, but temper expectations to the low-to-mid 1.0 WAR range. Not good.
Enter 32-year-old starter Sonny Gray. Twins management shipped 2021 1st round pick Chase Petty to the Reds for a 160-inning, 4.00-FIP ace presence in the rotation. Gray offers leadership around the inexperienced arms rounding out this group. The “exception” here being Randy Dobnak’s 134.0 innings scattered across the last three seasons. Dobnak may not offer much in terms of bulk innings, so the rotation’s future almost relies on the right arms of Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. Can each of them endure 150+ innings while maintaining 3.5+ K/BB ratios as non-ground ball pitchers? If you set modest expectations for the pair, low 4.00s FIPs and good innings production should earn a collective 4 wins. At least Jake Mailhot thinks so. In the absence of experienced depth, it won’t take much to topple Minnesota’s rotation – but in the absence of a total collapse, this group offers 2+ wins of improvement.
— Bullpen —
In spite of the bullpen failing to carry forward its impressive production of 2019 & 2020, several bright spots were still present on last year’s roster. Granted, the 2021 group was extremely top-heavy and left a lot to be desired below the trio of Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, and Tyler Duffey. Those three represented 3.3 of the entire unit’s 2.4 WAR valuation – a testament to their solid seasons but also to the fact that they were physically limited to working just 26% of the bullpen’s innings. And this was a unit that had the tenth most usage in the majors last year. Based on the above, Minnesota’s relievers should not expect any less action in 2022.
Shuffling the Deck
Out are Alex Colome and Hansel Robles, a pair that nailed down 27 of the team’s 42 saves while netting a disappointing -0.2 WAR. In their absence, Taylor Rogers appears to be the bullpen’s bell cow after his stellar 2.13 FIP/2.11 xFIP year with 9 saves of his own. And the way that Taylor did it should give manager Rocco Baldelli confidence in the 31-year-old lefty. His high strikeout rate and high ground ball rate with a steady increase in velocity appears to be sustainable, especially after yielding a .358 BABIP. Simplifying his repertoire to a slider/sinker combo after the 2019 season has produced an improved swinging strike rate that should maintain a 5+ K/BB ratio. Expect another mid-1.0s WAR season from Rogers as he gets more high-leverage action with a more modest mid-to-upper-2.00s FIP.
The fates of late-inning men Tyler Duffy, Jorge Alcala, and Caleb Thielbar are slightly less spectacular. Realistically though, they don’t need to be for this relief unit to be improved. My guess is that Baldelli will be satisfied with mid-3.00s FIPs from Duffy and Thielbar again. Whether or not the 34-year-old Thielbar can continue his career’s rebirth since rejoining the organization is the question. Can Tyler fade some ugly underlying numbers from last season? His walk rate ballooned uncharacteristically to 11.0% while his strikeout rate dropped to 24.0% – trends that must be reversed in the important setup man role. Plus the club took an interesting flyer on Jharel Cotton after his nice rebound to fit in as swingman. Assuming Duffy gets those proportions under control and Alcala cuts back on the long balls, the Minnesota bullpen should earn the team at least one more win over last season’s low point.
WAGER: Twins Over 74.5 -114 (3/13 BetRivers)
2022 AL Central Projected Standings
- Chicago White Sox (95-67)
- Cleveland Indians (80-82)
- Minnesota Twins (80-82)
- Kansas City Royals (74-88)
- Detroit Tigers (73-89)
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