Things are looking up in the NASCAR world. Last weekend, Kentucky’s Quaker State 400 fired up without a weather delay and ended a rookie crossing the line in first. Wednesday night’s All-Star Race at Bristol was a spectacle for sore eyes with fireworks, underlighting for the cars, and 30,000 people in the stands. That’s right, tens of thousands of people at a live sporting event. Now the Cup Series heads to the Lone Star State for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Saddle up and let’s ride!
From the Bluegrass to Bristol
The first two stages at Kentucky Speedway were uneventful ones dominated by the Ford Mustangs. Then with 39 laps to go, things got very interesting beginning with Brennan Poole’s blown tire. Most of the field had already come in for a final stop to get tires and gas at that point, but a handful of drivers including William Byron and Kevin Harvick were holding out as long as they could to pit. The gamble paid off as Byron and Harvick – who had run near the back of the lead lap most of the day – suddenly found themselves up front. Cautions then followed more cautions until the race came down to a restart with two laps to go.
Kentucky Speedway has drawn criticism in its brief history for not wearing through tires quickly enough. This means fewer green flag pit stops, less strategy, and what some consider to be a boring race. The 2020 Quaker State 400 followed that script until the final pit cycle, when Poole’s caution really changed the game. The #4 team was a big beneficiary of the hold-out strategy, which made a ton of sense because Harvick’s car simply did not have it last weekend. Crew chief Rodney Childers rolled the dice, knowing that if they caught a caution they could instantly jump into contention. The gambit worked and Harvick was once again gunning for the win. Not to be overlooked, Cole Custer drove those final two laps like a seasoned vet, yielding the rookie his first Cup Series win.
A Chance at Redemption
The Quaker State 400 offered teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. an opportunity to take that cliched “next step” in their lackluster 2020 seasons. Kyle started the day on the pole and led the race for a while but ultimately failed to menace after an alleged broken shock on a car gave him all kinds of trouble. Whether you love him or hate him, Rowdy Busch demonstrated his mad skills behind the wheel with a clutch save. Nonetheless, he finished in a disappointing 21st place.
MTJ, on the other hand, started Sunday’s race in the back after a failed pre-race inspection. Last week’s race preview called the Kentucky race a barometer for the remainder of Martin’s season and he appeared to start where he left off in Indy. Fortunately for him, his race trajectory was the exact opposite of JGR teammate Kyle’s. Truex steadily climbed the ladder, finishing 10th in Stage 1 and 5th in Stage 2. When the final green flag dropped with two laps to go, the #19 Toyota battled hard but came up just short of a surging Cole Custer. Still, I consider his run from last to runner-up an excellent showing that could bode well the rest of his season.
Betting on Kurt for Fun and for Profit
Nothing disappointed me more about our Kentucky betting card than seeing Matt Kenseth take a pre-race inspection penalty. Matt’s penalty was compounded by other disasters: A pit crew miscue cut his freshly-changed tire early in the race, resulting in a spinout before he made it around the track again. He drew the caution flag late in the race with another spinout, though at that point only a miracle could have allowed him to outrace a solid-performing Austin Dillon in that matchup. Simply too many mistakes by the #42 team lead to a swing and a miss with this play.
The Aric Almirola vs. William Byron matchup played out beautifully, just as we handicapped it. Well, almost. AA led 128 of 267 laps, won Stage 1, and appeared to be in a different league from Willy B early on. Even after Aric got shuffled back into the mid-teens after a brutal restart, he was cruising several seconds ahead of his foe. Then the pit strategy wrinkle stuck its nose in and scared me. Sitting close to a half lap behind the leaders, Byron’s team had the same mindset as Kevin Harvick’s: stay out when the others take their final green flag stop and hope for a caution.
Byron was sitting pretty at the top once the pit stops cycled through after Poole’s caution. After watching AA run head and shoulders above Willy all day, this was a massive gut punch. But it ain’t over ’til it’s over and Almirola showed one last time just how fast that #10 Mustang was. After the final restart, he zipped by Byron on the outside line and came through with the equalizer.
Kurt Busch: Back on Track
Kentucky is a track where he can regain the consistent Top 10 form that we at the BetCrushers appreciate highly. Kurt delivered in both Charlotte races this season, extending his run of Top 10s there to eight of the last ten contests. Two weeks later, Busch placed 6th at Atlanta for his fifth T10 in a row on that track. Kentucky’s intermediate track presents a great opportunity for the defending Quaker State 400 champ to get hot again this season.
The 2020 Quaker State 400 at Kentucky (7/12/2020) – BetCrushers.com – July 8, 2020
In Kurt we trust, and that trust was not misplaced last weekend. The defending Quaker State 400 champ felt right at home at Kentucky Speedway, punching his fifth Top 10 finish in six races there. We gave MTJ his due for being a 1.5-mile track specialist. In a similar light, we can’t overlook Kurt on these intermediates. Granted, Truex’s highs have been much higher over the last few years in these scenarios. That should not diminish the fact that Busch is one of the most consistent drivers at Kentucky, Texas, and Kansas. Guess what? We’re smack dab in the middle of that 1-2-3 punch of regular season races on those tracks.
Racing in the Metroplex
Texas Motor Speedway joined the circuit during NASCAR’s 1990s expansion years. Tracks like Texas, Kentucky, Chicagoland, and Kansas popped up, creating a tug-of-war between classic Cup venues and newer, less quirky tracks outside the American South. Many say this expansion kicked off a steady decline in the sport as racing on these newer “cookie-cutter” ovals just wasn’t as exciting as the old-school tracks. Still, local fans like this one have an affinity for Texas Motor Speedway and everything that typically goes into a race weekend in the Lone Star State. Unlike Kentucky Speedway, Texas got a Cup race right away – with Jeff Burton scoring his first win here in the inaugural running in 1997.
Texas’ track underwent several significant changes before the 2017 season. Ownership repaved the track and took some banking out of Turns 1 & 2, making the 1.5-mile quad-oval less symmetrical. The first two turns sit at about 20 degrees, while the last two remain at 24 degrees. Although not as fast as it once was, Texas is still a full-throttle oval. Repaves are controversial – just ask Clint Bowyer – but one intention here was to help dry the track out better. Given how often rain has been a race day factor in 2020, I have a new appreciation for how important this can be.
A Hotspot for Veterans
Jimmie Johnson returned to racing at Kentucky after missing his first Cup start in 19 years! Kentucky treated him well until he went for a block on Brad Keselowski after a restart. That move, which epitomizes his 2020 season, may have cost him a Top 10 finish. Fortunately, JJ is back on friendly ground at Texas. The seven-time Cup Series Champion has just as many race wins here, marking it as his fourth most prolific venue behind Dover, Martinsville, and Charlotte. In fact, those seven Texas wins are the most of any Cup driver, as are JJ’s Top 5s (15), Top 10s (21) and laps led (1,041). Unlike some other tracks, Jimmie’s glory days in the Lone Star State aren’t that far in the past. He last won here in 2017, right after the repave.
It’s been more feathers than chicken since that victory, as the #48 has had two early exits and a major disappointment at Texas since then. One thing to consider, however, is JJ’s work here last year. He started on the pole in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, led 60 laps, and held on for a solid 5th place finish. November’s AAA 500 began with a very impressive run from a 23rd starting position. He stayed in the mix late and then spun out for a 34th place DNF. Despite his woes in recent years, I have enough respect for him at Texas to simply stay out of the way. I can’t get with him, and can’t go against him.
Happy Loves Texas
When it comes to handicapping the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, look no further than Kevin Harvick. This is becoming a weekly statement in my race previews, and for good reason. The Closer won the last three Texas playoff races and finished in the Top 5 in five of the last six contests here. Couple that with his current form, and Harvick is what I like to call “Double Hot”. This #4 team is in the zone right now, having recently won at a variety of tracks – Atlanta’s quad-oval, Pocono’s triangle, and Indy’s squared oval.
It’s no coincidence that Happy Harvick has won five of the last eight races at Atlanta and Texas. These tracks share a lot of similarities, although Texas’ recent tweaks help differentiate it. The #4 team was pretty good here in years past, but they’ve been lights out since 2017. Harvick won five of twelve stages in the midst of winning three of the six Texas races. He qualifies well and puts himself in an advantageous position, and should draw into another great starting spot for this year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Consider this: Harvick’s starting positions of 22nd and 23rd resulted in his only two finishes worse than 6th place since the November 2014 race. Chances are, if he starts near the front he’ll finish near the front.
The BetCrushers’ O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Card
The opening odds for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 favors the man on a mission, Kevin Harvick. As if you expected anything different. His insane success on this quad-oval is more than enough to justify being an early favorite. Couple Happy Harvick’s mastery in the last three years here with his current form and you can see why he opened at a short 3/1. Kyle continues to get the customary premium attached to his name, despite cracking the Top 5 only once in the last six Texas races. Sure, that “once” was a victory in spring 2018 but 6/1 is a bit light if you ask me. Pole sitter Aric Almirola sits at 20/1 alongside seven-time Texas winner Jimmie Johnson. Plenty of options lay in the double-digit payout range, including the always-dangerous Ryan Blaney.
Kurt Busch -110 to Top 10
Similar to last week’s handicap, I made a strong case in the intro for a solid finish from Kurt Busch. With Texas being the second in a string of three consecutive races at favorable tracks for him, he’s in the middle of a sweet spot and should be settling in. This week’s track is arguably less sweet than the other two, but it’s definitely not salty. The Top 10 consistency that we love from Kurt is front and center in the Lone Star State. Eight of his last eleven at Texas were Top 10 performances, including six in a row since the 2017 reconfiguration. He even qualified for two poles in this recent stretch.
The flip side to this argument is that these were barely Top 10s. Both 2019 races in the #1 Chip Ganassi Chevy yielded 9th place finishes, although Kurt started 30th in the spring race. Busch starts 3rd on Sunday, which is more in the neighborhood of the 4th position start in the 2019 Texas playoff race. We can also consider his performance at other Kurt-friendly tracks this season:
- Darlington – 3rd & 15th
- Charlotte – 7th & 5th
- Bristol – 7th
- Atlanta – 6th
- Kentucky – 5th
I handicap Busch’s chances to stick another Top 10 Texas finish around 60%. The -110 price on this position is perfect for the risk associated with tight margin of error. In other words, this is gonna be a sweat. If Top 10 markets are not available at your book, look for an expanded matchup menu against fellow Tier 2 drivers. The current pairings I have at this time are -155 against Alex Bowman and -115 with Aric Almirola. AA should have another big weekend and the heavy juice against Bowman makes that play less appetizing than the Top 10 position.
Kyle Busch -136 NOT to Top 5
“It’s certainly been frustrating this year. It seems like any time I fall into a rhythm, I back up myself just a little bit to 90, 95%, I’m going backwards. I’m getting passed, slowing down. You can’t run at 100% all the time every lap. When you do, you start making mistakes. We’ve just been run into a lot this year, too. When we’ve had nothing happen, we get run into. Those are bad finishes, as well. I don’t know. We can chalk it up to a whole bunch of things. For lack of a better term is we’ve got to be faster.”
Kyle Busch to NASCAR.com; July 16, 2020
Everyone in the #18 camp is anxiously waiting for something that seems inevitable, and yet hasn’t happened yet: Kyle Busch finding the winner’s circle. His runner-up at the Bristol All-Star Race last week had to be bittersweet. So close to victory, yet still lamenting a lack of speed the very next day. Kyle has three runner-ups in points races this season, the last of which came at Atlanta on June 7th. That close call marked his fourth Top 5 finish in five races. Since then, however, he’s found his way to a Top 5 finish only once in seven races. He’s had a couple close calls but just as many big misses. Kyle starts 4th on Sunday, but can he keep this position for 501 miles?
The three-time Texas winner rattled off seven Top 5s in a stretch of eight races between fall 2012 and the 2016 playoff race. That dominant run included two wins, with his third coming in spring 2018. With that one exception, Kyle has been unable to close out races on the post-2017 track configuration. I doubt this is pure coincidence. Busch has an average finish of 11.5 in the six Texas races since 2017, which is a far cry from the 4.25 average posted during his 2012-2016 run. Rowdy Busch may be on the verge of getting his first win of 2020, but I have a hard time believing that a self-proclaimed lack of speed will get him there on a track that’s not particularly favorable to him.
Ryan Blaney -115 vs. Brad Keselowski
Ryan Blaney caught my attention as one of several must-bets early in my handicapping process this week. You have to look past his three DNFs in ten Cup races here, which I’m okay with doing as two of them came during his 2015 rookie season. A busted hose caused overheating in last year’s spring race after Ryan led 45 laps and placed 2nd in Stage 2. Otherwise, Blaney produced three Top 10s in his four Texas races since joining Team Penske in 2018. Also consider that he won both stages in spring 2017 in the #21 Wood Brothers Ford, finishing 12th.
I was optimistic that the prompt books would give me some solid matchup options. 5Dimes did not disappoint. Blaney is paired there with Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex, Jr., and Denny Hamlin. Chase was a maybe in my first cut and still a potential play for me. (If you want a great case for backing Blaney, check out our friend @NASCARStyleOdds’ article.) I don’t have the stones to put the double-fade on Kyle, MTJ should be solid here, and Hamlin is too dangerous. That leaves us with his Penske teammate, Brad Keselowski.
So Why Fade Brad?
Keselowski is having a solid season, finishing in the Top 10 in ten of the 13 races since NASCAR’s return. But Texas has not been kind to him over the last few years. He has only two Top 10s here since 2016, and both of those good runs came in 2017. Brad appeared to get back into a Lone Star state of mind that year with a 6th in the spring and a sneaky 5th in the playoff race. Accidents are to blame for a couple of his recent poor performances, especially the 2018 one that wrecked a very good race. It’s been tough sledding for BK at Texas Motor Speedway in recent years. This makes him an excellent pairing for Ryan Blaney, who I expect to be fast and aggressive – just the way we like him.
A Mid-Week Showdown
Ready for some racing under the lights? Another quick turnaround awaits after the Cup Series puts a bow on the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. The boys head north to race the Kansas 400 Thursday night. These mid-week races have been fantastic and our hopes are high for another good one. Stay connected with us on Twitter and be sure to visit our NASCAR page to catch our plays before the handicap is published. Want to be notified when new articles are published? Subscribe below for email alerts. Football is (hopefully) right around the corner, so be sure to stay tuned for more of our sports betting insights!
