It seems like an eternity since the Cup Series last raced. Last week’s race at Kansas combined with MLB’s Opening Night for a long-awaited sports overload. NASCAR gave the big boys the weekend off, so you know they’re chomping at the bit to get back on the track. And so am I. Buckle up for New England-style racing with the Foxwoods Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
A-OK in Kansas
Once again, our guy Paul @NASCARstyleodds is squarely on point about needing more competitive Cup races. Officials did not add the PJ1 traction compound in the short week leading up to the Kansas race. Whether it was the time crunch or simply switching things up to yield a better event, hopefully they took note. Viewers’ reviews appeared to be positive and I was surely happy with the product. Drivers were riding that high line all night, paying off for some but sinking the chances of others. This is the risk/reward tradeoff we want to see during the race. However, a little advance notice about PJ1 usage for the teams (and us handicappers) would be appreciated.
One driver who kept his head well above water is no stranger to victory lane: Denny Hamlin. Did Denny fly under the radar going into the Kansas race? Oddsmakers were fully aware, opening his odds around 7/1 near the top of a logjam full of heavy-hitters. He held off late surges from Brad Keselowski and teammate Martin Truex, Jr. to secure his fifth victory of the season. Speaking of MTJ, his strong 3rd place finish answered our question whether Kansas was a prime bounce back spot for the #19 team. Though Martin did not win the race, Kansas was far from a failure.
Hamlin’s win did not provide enough points to leapfrog Kevin Harvick in the season or the playoff standings. These two have amassed a combined nine wins this year and are working up a decent cushion in the postseason race. One thing you will notice is that Kyle Busch snagged a long-awaited stage win and two more playoff points. After his ballsy performance at Texas with a damaged car, “KFB” is inching himself closer to finally hoisting the hardware in 2020.
Small Card, Big Results
The lightning-fast Ryan Blaney was one of those high line riders at Kansas. Contact with the wall late in the race put him a lap down, costing him a strong finish after running so well. The first thing I thought of when I saw that was Hamlin’s disastrous finish at Indy, and how that cost us big time. (Apparently it’s going to take a while for Denny’s blowout to slip my mind.) Our Kansas card featured Chase Elliott as a legitimate challenger to Blaney in that race, especially at +105. Chase had trouble all night picking his way through traffic, but Blaney’s mishap sealed the deal for that play. Elliott’s clean but uneventful race was good enough to capitalize on another tough day for #12 at Kansas Speedway.
We leaned on Kurt Busch yet again in our second of two plays. All we needed from him was a Top 10 finish, and we were anything but disappointed. Sure, Busch finished only 9th – but that’s how he gets down on the “Kurt tracks”. And that’s all it took to cash the bet. It was a ho-hum 2-0 night at Kansas, but we’ll take it. Now it’s time to find more winners in the Foxwoods Casino 301 at New Hampshire.
Hot Action at New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway’s one-mile track celebrates its 30th birthday this year. After a decade of Cup races, New Hampshire was retrofitted with progressively-banked corners. It hosted two tracks per year until the 2018 season, providing us enough data points to work with in this no-practice environment. In fact, NASCAR recently announced there will be no practices through the rest of 2020. We’ve continued to successfully handicap races in this COVID environment just like Denny and Kevin are finding their way to victory lane. Okay, that’s a little over the top – but the show must go on and we have ourselves a front row seat.
Your defending New Hampshire champ is none other than 2020 Cup Series standings leader Kevin Harvick. He held off last week’s winner, Denny Hamlin, for a thrilling finish in 2019. Harvick displayed more late-race heroics in 2018 by turning a bump-and-run on Kyle Busch into the final lead of the day. You surely won’t be surprised when I tell you The Closer is a damn good driver here.
Harvick’s New England Home
The California native has made himself right at home in New England. The four-time New Hampshire winner racked up three victories in the last five races here. If that isn’t impressive enough, consider how strong he has run this mile since the 2014 playoff race. Harvick has seven Top 5 finishes during this stretch, including three wins. His recent blemish came in the 2017 playoff race, where he finished 36th after a bizarro wreck.
Two years prior, The Closer was unable to seal the deal after leading 216 of 300 laps that day. The #4 team rolled the dice with fuel strategy to keep their lead. Matt Kenseth pressured him down the stretch, forcing a decision between fuel conservation and staying up front. With three laps to go, the dice came up snake eyes when Harvick ran out of gas. Oddly enough, Kevin’s wins in recent years were not front-running performances like that 2015 near miss. He led just 61 laps in those three victories, as compared to the 379 laps led in the 2014 and 2015 playoff races. It’s safe to say that crew chief Rodney Childers has sharpened his strategy on the New Hampshire mile, which is the last thing the competition wants to hear.
Don’t Sleep on the JGR Toyotas
Joe Gibbs Racing’s lineup of heavy hitters has performed at a high level here since 2017 like no other team. (To approach this angle, I am lumping former Furniture Row Racing drivers Martin Truex, Jr. and Erik Jones into the JGR camp. MTJ and Jones drove Toyotas for FRR through 2018 and 2017, respectively.) Gibbs’ guys have consistently stalked the lead pack, producing eleven Top 10s in the last four New Hampshire races. In fact, they’ve accounted for two Top 5 finishes in each of those contests. Denny Hamlin won the 2017 spring race and Kyle Busch took the playoff race in the fall before passing the torch to Kevin Harvick in 2018. As strong as the #4 is running this season, these Toyotas should challenge Harvick for the checkered flag on Sunday.
My focus shifts to MTJ for the fourth race in a row. New Hampshire isn’t one of those 1.5-mile tracks that Truex has crushed in recent seasons, yet I still argue that it’s well within his wheelhouse. Martin’s wins on the 1.5-milers were undoubtedly instrumental in his 2017 Cup Series Championship and possibly overshadowed his pair of Top 5s here that season. Since his rise to championship status, MTJ has finished no worse than 6th at New Hampshire. Add the fact that the #19 Camry has been damn good on “his” tracks this season. A runner-up at Kentucky and 3rd at Kansas last time out sandwiched any unfortunate wipeout at Texas in the midst of a strong run. Look for cost-effective opportunities to play Truex this week like this matchup that Paul booked.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
This week’s opener – at BetRivers, anyhow – features seven drivers priced at less than 10/1. 2017 New Hampshire playoff race winner Kyle Busch sits just below a pair of guys who are running the show in 2020. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin account for nine wins in the 19 points races held this season. They’ve also won three of the last four New Hampshire races, earning very short odds below 5/1. It appears that Kyle Busch has officially been overthrown as the top dog of the odds board this season.
Aric Almirola +100 vs. Chase Elliott
Some handicaps are heavily track-dependent, others rely primarily on current form. This matchup breakdown is skewed more towards the latter. Neither participants have won at New Hampshire, although both challenged for the victory in 2018 with Top 5 finishes. They combined to lead 65 of the 301 laps in that contest. My underlying concern with Chase Elliott lies is in part with Hendrick Motorsports’ struggles this season. His talent propelled him to a win at Charlotte and several other near misses. Elliott posted disappointing finishes in the preceding three-race stretch where he was unaffected by incidents. He flashed his talent with a win in the Bristol All-Star Race, partially vindicating his 22nd place finish in May in which he snagged both stage victories.
Aric Almirola, on the other hand, is running in a Kurt Busch-esque groove as far as I am concerned. AA’s Top 5 streak was broken at Kentucky after five such finishes in a row. The last three races on the 1.5-mile ovals were a bit less friendly to him, relegating the #10 Ford Mustang to a trifecta of Top 10 finishes. Almirola was unable to parlay his excellent starting positions into an extended Top 5 streak. However, he registered a personal best finish (6th) at Kansas last time out and tied his best (8th) at Kentucky a couple weeks before that.
A Matter of Trajectory
I see a clear difference in the direction that the Stewart-Haas Fords and Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets are heading. Call me hypocritical for flip-flopping on Chase after backing him against Ryan Blaney at Kansas. I’ll counter by saying it was a plus-money position against a guy who had generally struggled on that track in recent years – a trend that persisted. Putting aside Blaney’s kiss with the Kansas Speedway wall, Elliott’s lackluster performances of late push the advantage in Almirola’s favor this weekend.
Of the two, only Almirola has improved on the 1-mile intermediate tracks (Phoenix, Dover, and New Hampshire) since 2018. AA hopped in the #10 Mustang that season and has boosted his average finish from a lifetime average finish of 16.88 to 10.55 in eleven races on these tracks. Conversely, Chase has declined from a 12.57 lifetime average to 16.00 since piloting the #9 Chevy in 2018. Elliott’s statistical decline is admittedly bogged down by several incidents including the 2019 Phoenix playoff race that knocked him out of the postseason. To top it all off, Aric has outraced Chase both times here with their current teams and beat him outright in the last four races this season. I believe it will take a strong Top 5 finish for Elliott to beat AA this weekend, so give me the #10 for even money.
Martin Truex, Jr. Top 5 +125
My earlier tease leads right into our second of two plays. This position requires a strong stomach to put aside the tough beats that the #19 team has taken lately. The compounded issues at Indianapolis and the wipeout at the hands of Kyle at Texas immediately come to mind. Otherwise, Truex performed well on the tracks where he was expected to: 2nd at Kentucky and 3rd at Kansas. Similar to those 1.5-mile ovals, New Hampshire is a spot where MTJ has been sneaky good. Not quite good enough to win, but solid enough to earn three Top 5 finishes in the last four contests here. This is going to be a sweat akin to the Top 10 play on Kurt Busch last week, especially considering that a 6th place finish like at the 2019 Foxwoods Casino 301 would be rough.
The biggest reason why I like Aric Almirola and MTJ this week is how they’ve stepped their games up on the 1-mile intermediate tracks in recent years. Starting with his win at the 2016 Dover playoff race, MTJ finished in the Top 5 in twelve of the last 19 at Dover, Phoenix, and New Hampshire. Phoenix is the least promising venue of the three for Martin, accounting for five of those seven non-Top 5s. Think about that for a minute – MTJ has nine Top 5 finishes in the last eleven races at Dover and New Hampshire. That is rock solid as far as I am concerned. A lot of funny business can go down on race day to squash the best laid plans, but give me +125 for Truex to be fast and fortunate enough to post another Top 5 finish.
A Doubleheader in Michigan
NASCAR’s schedule is back to being wacky and the boys are playing two next weekend. Michigan International Speedway hosts a pair of 312-mile Cup races on Saturday and Sunday! This will be similar to the Pocono Double held a month earlier, and we’ll have you ready to roll again. Stay connected with us on Twitter and be sure to visit our NASCAR page when the odds drop to catch our early plays. Want email alerts? Subscribe below to have our handicaps delivered straight to your inbox:
