Good things come to those who wait. Mother Nature tested our patience with several hours of delays before delivering uninterrupted racing at Homestead-Miami. There’s no mid-week Cup race in the meantime, so all eyes are on the 2020 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Buckle up because this race is going to be intense!
Talladega is well known for a few things. At 2.66 miles, it is the longest non-road course on the circuit. The tri-oval boasts three turns banked well in excess of 30 degrees for maximum speed. When combined with the steep banking, the 48 foot-wide track surface promotes high-speed three-wide excitement. Finishing at ‘Dega is goal #1, considering that the prospect of a looming “Big One” can take out a big chunk of the field in the blink of an eye.
Electricity in Miami
The start of Sunday’s 400-mile race at Homestead was pushed back for weather then delayed some more by repeated lightning strikes. When the skies cleared, we were treated to three hours of great racing. It didn’t take long before most of the previous years’ “Championship 4” teams fell out of contention. Young guns Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney duked it out as Denny Hamlin tightened his grip on the race. How tight? Hamlin led 137 of the 267 laps and won both stages on his way to the checkered flag.
Denny’s third win of the season boosted him to 2nd in the playoff point standings. This was the first race with the #11 team back to full strength after a five-race suspension for three critical members. I had serious concerns about Hamlin’s performance going into that period, but he held his ground. Last week’s dominance with a full crew makes a big statement for this Joe Gibbs Racing contender.
Open Door Policy
Last week’s race preview explored the idea that the door would be open for a larger field of contenders without the Championship on the line. Both the in-race events and the result support the theory, although one contest neither proves or disproves anything. After all, Denny Hamlin won the race after being a member of two Championship 4s in the last six years.
…are drivers that were not part of the “Championship 4” in recent years undervalued? The core of this theory is that non-contenders are less apt to vie for the lead and challenge the four that are battling for NASCAR’s ultimate prize. Everyone will be fighting for the same prize without the season title hanging in the balance on Sunday.
BetCrushers.com – No Championship at Homestead? No Problem (6/14/2020)
Notably absent from the Top 10 were perennial playoff drivers Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, Jr., and Joey Logano. Kyle Busch snuck his way into 6th and Brad Keselowski finished 10th. However, Busch and Keselowski never threatened to win the race. Outside of Denny Hamlin’s strong run, the Dixie Vodka 400 was all about the next wave of Cup Series stars. Elliott and Blaney fought hard with Top 3 machines. Fellow budding stars Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and William Byron landed Top 10s as well. Even understated drivers Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon ran great races and earned valuable points. Whatever the reason, the door in Miami was more open than it’s been in years.
Just Short of Perfect
There is no shame in striving for perfection, but handicapping will always be an imperfect art because the task is to assess the probability of certain events happening. The most challenging aspect is that the result may not accurately reflect the value of a given position. Say what? Well, if I calculate that something has a 57% chance of happening and bet accordingly, it doesn’t mean I’m wrong when it doesn’t happen. It means the result fell into the 43% probability that it would swing the other way. If I got a good price, it was worth the risk. It’s an abstract way of thinking, but our 5-0 record between the three plays at Atlanta and two at Martinsville was a favorable combination of handicapping approach (finding value) and how millions of events within the races played out.
This short-run “perfection” came to an end – as it always does – in Miami as Ryan Newman fell to Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. The rear end of Joey Logano’s car victimized Newman as the #22 swerved suddenly to block his pass. Logano was a lap down and pulled the classic “big name driver being a jerk because he doesn’t have the car he wanted” move, as my wife says. Fair enough, although Ryan had already spun out once on Lap 21, so I’ll concede this matchup as one probably not meant to be a winner.
Our two matchup wins ended with significant differentials between competitors. Ryan Blaney was lightning fast and super aggressive, with the downside being that he was awfully squirrely at times and scared the crap out of me while racing Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick hard. But that’s why we like this kid. Bowman was no match for Blaney, who was going to lose this matchup only by suffering significant contact or a penalty. Ryan’s strong performance was anything but unexpected. It was Austin Dillon who really impressed me with his 7th place finish at Homestead. Even a mid-race penalty couldn’t hold him down. Matt DiBenedetto delivered an expected 14th place “gap up” performance, setting a personal best finish on another track this season. Matty D ran a good race but Dillon was just one step ahead of him, as predicted.
Superspeedway Madness
Not even the ancient Romans bound dozens of gladiators together for deadly free-for-alls in inescapable packs just for the sake of a better show. But Sunday, 43 drivers will be bound together in packs that make them fear for their lives.
Chicago Tribune (April 20, 2001) – Talladega’s a Death Trap
Perhaps “death trap” is a bit dramatic. If Ryan Newman can survive his Daytona 500 aerials AND get back on the track within months, I don’t think Sunday’s competitors will be fearing for their lives. Credit goes to NASCAR officials for their ongoing efforts to improve safety on the track. That said, there is near certainty that the proverbial crap is gonna hit the fan at Talladega…again. The Big Ones grab the headlines, but don’t overlook just how good the racing is when the throttles are wide open.
Chase Elliott’s eyes are set on defending his title in Sunday’s 2020 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. He won last spring’s race after placing 3rd in the 2018 contest. Elliott followed up his win with an 8th place finish last fall. Chase’s bid was aided by a late caution. He led only 45 laps, but everyone knows leading Lap 188 at Talladega is the only thing that truly matters. Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, and part-timer Brenden Gaughan notched rare Top 10 finishes when the dust settled. Thirteen drivers did not finish the race and seven of them fell victim to a dreaded pileup in the waning laps. It’s never pretty, but it is always exciting.
In similar fashion, Ryan Blaney captured the checkered flag in the 2019 fall playoff race. He led just 35 laps, but was in the mix the entire 500-mile contest. Fifteen cars did not finish the 1000Bulbs.com 500. Adding to the cliffhanger nature of Talladega, the race was postponed by rain after Stage 1 and resumed the following day. Weather delays have been a recurring theme in this year’s races after NASCAR’s return in the midst of a pandemic, of all things. Let’s hope Mother Nature treats us to 188 laps of uninterrupted racing this week.
The Winning Team
Penske’s Fords have made their way to Talladega’s victory lane at an impressive rate. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano survived the madness to win a combined six times in the eight races held between fall 2014 and spring 2018. Success can be quite fickle here though. Logano has six DNFs in his 22 Cup races, including four behind the wheel of his #22 Ford. Still on the fence with how volatile superspeedway racing can be? Each of Joey’s fall 2015 & 2016 victories were followed up by – you guessed it, accidents. Otherwise, he has maintained a high level of success here since the 2015 victory. He has won three of the last seven Talladega races with three additional Top 5 runs and finished 11th last fall.
Teammate Brad Keselowski made a splash by winning the 2009 Aarons 499 at Talladega as a rookie, then placing a respectable 8th that fall. Penske Racing picked him up in 2010 and Brad hasn’t looked back since. He won the 2012 ‘Dega race in a Dodge then went on to win three more times after Penske shifted to Ford. Here’s a fun fact for you: Brad’s 2016 GEICO 500 victory kicked off his current string of eight straight races leading a lap here. Perhaps Brad’s most impressive effort was his 2017 fall victory in which he led just seven laps but won Stage 1 and came in second at the end of Stage 2. Talk about being up front when it counts!
Unlike Logano, however, Keselowski has had a tougher time lately. Three of his last four Talladega finishes were outside of the Top 20. Two of those were a result of accidents, including a Big One where an airborne Brendan Gaughan wiped out Keselowski and other leaders with seven laps to go. Ironically, his best result in the last two years here came despite a pretty sensational backwards pit box entry. Talladega surely brings out the theatrics with these guys.
A Different Cast of Characters
Our longtime readers know that I look for consistency with teams in a given race. This is critical in pinpointing undervalued drivers in head-to-head matchups and Top 5 / Top 10 markets. Talladega’s reputation as an “anything-goes” venue is spot on when you think about long drafting lines and huge accidents. Big volatility doesn’t mean there is no consistency though. Six active drivers have multiple Top 5 finishes in the six races held here from 2017 to 2019. That’s the same number of active repeat Top 5 finishers in the last six at Homestead and Martinsville. It’s just shy of the eight at Bristol and Charlotte, and the nine at Atlanta and Darlington.
Multiple Top 5 Finishes in the Last Six Races at Each Venue
[ninja_tables id=”9893″]This comparison is less about the number of Top 5 repeaters and more about who is – and who is not – represented on this list. Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. are names you see in the Talladega column, but nowhere else. Although Stenhouse does have a pair of finishes at Charlotte just inside the line. Otherwise, half of the six drivers with recurring success at Sunday’s track are guys you would not necessarily expect.
If you think Top 5 result totals are too arbitrary, cast the net out further to capture multiple Top 10 performers in the last six Talladega races. You catch five more drivers: Kurt Busch has three, while his brother Kyle, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, and Alex Bowman each have two. What does this say to me? For starters, that this track is anything but conducive to sustained success. It also makes me wonder if these unusual suspects – Almirola, Newman, and Stenhouse – are doing something right at Talladega.
The Legend of Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has earned himself a reputation as a wild man on the track. He’s known for spinning out, spinning someone else out, or just engaging in some good old fashioned hard contact with the wall. Ricky has failed to finish just over 11% of his 268 Cup races. In reality, that’s the same ratio as Chase Elliott and slightly higher than Ryan Newman. Even a Championship-caliber driver like Kyle Busch did not finish 10.3% of his career Cup races. (This makes Kevin Harvick’s extremely low rate of 5.5% look that much more impressive.)
Does this mean Stenhouse doesn’t deserve the snarky nickname of “Mr. Excitement”? Anyone who’s ever watched much NASCAR would beg to differ. If he’s anywhere near your favorite driver or the car you have money on, you do cringe a bit. When it comes to Talladega, however, he does everything he can to stay on the track. Ricky has completed over 99% of all laps run in his 13 races here. His 2 DNFs may overshadow the fact that he has missed just 18 laps. A final lap pileup in the 2019 GEICO 500 clipped his wings and sent him back to an unfortunate 25th place finish.
Built for Superspeedways
Mr. Excitement is commonly known as a superspeedway specialist. This perception has something to do with him winning his first Cup Series race at Talladega in his fifth full season. It was galvanized when he won at Daytona – the circuit’s other superspeedway – less than two months later. These may be the only two wins in Ricky’s eight-year career, but he’s done more than that to earn this reputation. He has led 121 laps at Daytona and 89 at Talladega; both more than at any other track. Stenhouse’s eight Top 10s in thirteen races here is his best ratio of such finishes. Oddly enough, six Top 10s in 15 Bristol contests is by far his second-best venue in this regard.
This has not been a great year for Ricky, even with a pair of Top 5 finishes (Las Vegas, Charlotte). His 20th place finish in this year’s Daytona 500 was a lackluster start to his tenure with JTG Daugherty Racing. Stenhouse spent his first seven years in a Roush Fenway Ford before jumping in the #47 Chevy this season. Aside from the 3rd, 4th, and 13th place finishes, Ricky has done no better than 20th in the other nine 2020 contests.
Everything about Talladega screams big day for Stenhouse this coming Sunday. If he does not wreck – admittedly a significant caveat for a superspeedway race – past history says Mr. Excitement will be in the Top 10. Five of his last seven here have been Top 5 performances, plus 9th last fall and his only two DNFs. However, I have less confidence in Stenhouse and the #47 team to race Talladega like he has done in the past. This is an opinion that I could very well be wrong about, so I will pass on making a position involving Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Notice anything unusual about the opening odds below? Nobody is priced less than 10/1 to win Sunday’s volatile race. Granted, this is just 5Dimes’ odds and I did see a regional book price Joey Logano and Chase Elliott at 8/1 and 9/1, respectively. The top five on the board have been relatively successful on the superspeedway. In fact, four of them have won here since 2017. You’ll also notice a top-tier driver like Martin Truex, Jr. back in the crowd with Bowyer, Almirola, Dillon, and Byron.
If there’s anything you can count on, its that you can’t count on anything at Talladega. Tread lightly and be strategic when betting the GEICO 500. This bad boy sure as hell isn’t over until the checkered flag flies, so expect a late yellow or two. Added uncertainty comes from NASCAR’s a change of heart regarding Saturday’s practice, which was nixed because “the current format with no qualifying or practice is working well and has still created competitive racing.” It’s hard to argue with that logic because the racing has been quite good. Time to jump into a couple head-to-head matchups on our card.
Aric Almirola -110 vs. Clint Bowyer
In my opinion, Aric Almirola is the most interesting driver in Sunday’s field. Engine failure cut short his first Cup Series race at Talladega in fall 2007. Otherwise, Aric’s only other DNF here resulted from an accident with less than ten laps to go in the 2016 GEICO 500. 2016 was a punishing year for AA in which he scored only one Top 10. That bright spot was an 8th place finish in the fall Talladega race that kicked off his current seven-race Top 10 streak here. Four of those contests were Top 5s including his fall 2018 victory. Almirola received a gift from the racing gods when former teammate Kurt Busch lost fuel pressure on the final lap as race leader, opening the door for AA to get the win.
2017 was hardly a better year from the last for Almirola. He parted ways with Richard Petty Motorsports and got in with his current team, Stewart-Haas Racing. Aric has flourished in the #10 Mustang, racking up 33 Top 10 finishes since the 2018 season. In less than three years, he has surpassed the 30 Top 10s accumulated in the six full seasons with Petty. Finishing 5th in the 2018 season standings and 14th in 2019 is not too shabby either. I’ll make the case that Aric Almirola has a solid season so far in 2020. An accident at Bristol and battery issues at Martinsville are the major blemishes, otherwise he’s been strong in the early goings of several races and comes off of a very strong 5th at Homestead.
Flip-Flopping on Clint
I’ve asked Clint Bowyer to kick ass for me this year, as well as to lie down a couple times. Clint has already led one more lap in 2020 than he did all of last season. He sits in 12th position in the season standings – one spot above Aric Almirola. This is a critical split, as teams ranking 1-12 on the season draw in the first group. Bowyer is already locked in for a better starting position than Almirola. On the flip side, AA secured a solid pit location at the front of the third set of stalls. I consider the starting position and pit stall advantages to be a wash between competitors.
Clint has done well to survive Talladega over his long career. Two of his five DNFs came in his 2006 rookie season; the most recent two came in fall 2017 and spring 2018. The 2017 accident was quite unfortunate as Bowyer was in the midst of a strong run. That’s exactly what he gave us in fall 2018 with a legitimate runner-up finish while taking 2nd in the first two stages. Otherwise, Clint is on a downtrend at Talladega during the exact period in which Almirola has sustained success.
In fact, Aric is the only driver who finished in the Top 10 in all of the last six races here. Bowyer has more bright spots this season than AA, but Almirola has outraced him in five of the eight races since NASCAR’s return to action. Note that two of Bowyer’s head-to-head wins in this period came on the half-miles at Bristol and Martinsville. Talladega is anything but a short track, and I will ride Aric Almirola’s hot hand in this matchup.
Ryan Newman -115 vs. Erik Jones
Erik Jones is a tough-luck kid at Talladega. In fact, he failed to finish six of thirteen superspeedway races in his 3+ Cup seasons. It’s been bittersweet for him at Daytona, where he won the 2018 Coke Zero 400 and placed 3rd in the 2019 Daytona 500. Jones’ win was dramatic to say the least, benefitting from Ricky Stenhouse’s final lap disappointment. Tough luck is widespread on these high-risk tracks, and Erik knows full well what that means. Four of Erik’s superspeedway DNFs came at Talladega. He is not alone. Veteran Ryan Newman failed to finish here nine times in 36 career races. Engine issues in cars of years’ past caused three of the nine mishaps, though Newman has been incident-free all but once in the last thirteen Talladega contests.
Maybe this is just a simple good luck/bad luck dichotomy that is subject to change without notice. And boy is this ever the venue for things changing on a dime. We need not look any further than the 2000 Daytona 500 to see that Ryan Newman has taken his lumps in the superspeedway crapshoot. He was gunning for the win and took flight instead. Plus, we’re looking at two guys in opposite ends of their careers. Erik Jones is an up-and-coming driver racing for one of the best owners in the game. Ryan Newman is a veteran in the sunset of his career, driving for the relatively modest Roush Fenway Racing group. There’s plenty of give-and-take in this matchup.
Honestly, I don’t give either driver an edge with current form. Newman’s steadiness this season versus Jones’ bigger upside is a classic dilemma. I simply needed a solid finish from Newman at Bristol and he delivered big time. He failed to produce for me in Homestead last weekend, but I don’t hold a grudge. After all, I’m more apt to blame Joey Logano and his antics. Ryan has delivered nine Top 10s in the last twelve superspeedway races, which is pretty damn good. Steady as she goes with the Rocket Man – I’m rolling with Ryan Newman again this week to survive the madness and edge out Erik Jones.
Doubleheader in PA
Talladega is sure to be entertaining and we’re preparing for a totally unique weekend of maximum racing in Pennsylvania as a follow up. The Cup Series will run a Saturday and a Sunday race at Pocono Raceway’s Tricky Triangle. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and check our NASCAR page to keep an eye on our handicap and what we’re playing. Subscribe below for email alerts so you’ll never miss one of our features ever again.
