I’ll start by saying how competitive and entertaining the young 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season has been. Daytona – what can you say about that? Vegas – late caution forces a 2-lap sprint. Fontana – a huge, bumpy track made for flat-out racing. Three races into the season and the competition is legit. And now we get Phoenix?!? This is the track where the 2020 Cup Series Champion will be crowned, making this week a sneak peak of what’s to come in the fall. Time to dive into the 2020 FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway!

Last year’s new experience of preparing NASCAR race previews for our website reinforced how much information you can soak up just by watching the pre-race practice sessions. Fox Sports has Jeff Gordon and NBC Sports features Dale Earnhardt, Jr. as lead analysts for their broadcasts. These guys spit out a lot of recent first-hand knowledge about the tracks, conditions, and cars. It’s worth catching on demand at your convenience. For what it’s worth, Friday afternoon’s final practice is where I saw this fun fact:

There have been 15 different drivers in the Top 5 of the three Cup Series races so far this season. That’s never happened before.

Handicapping the FanShield 500 at Phoenix

The last running at Phoenix Raceway was the penultimate race of the 2019 season. Denny Hamlin got a huge win and eventual NASCAR Champion Kyle Busch came in second. Phoenix’s one-mile tri-oval with trademark dogleg challenges drivers with different entry points and lines. This wide section of track coming out of Turn 4 emphasizes driver familiarity, good grip, and the will to get aggressive. (Talk about knowing the track, Kevin Harvick won six of eight Phoenix races from 2012-2016.) Pair this week’s lower downforce package with a new traction compound and you can expect some fierce action.

Kyle Busch has a recent proficiency for turning his familiarity with Phoenix Raceway into wins. He finished 4th or better in eight of his last nine races here, including a pair of wins. Even more impressive is that those wins were straddled by a pair of runner-ups over the last four Phoenix races. He’s your defending spring race winner and appears to be extremely focused on sweeping the weekend like he did in March 2019. We have the benefit of seeing him run in Saturday’s Xfinity race, plus he looked good in both series’ practices.

Fourth Time’s a Charm for Ryan Blaney?

I’m not alone in believing that Ryan Blaney is a mentally-tough competitor. This kid has the skills to race at the Cup Series level and broke out with the Penske Racing resources behind him since 2018. Blaney didn’t have much success at Phoenix until spiking a pair of 3rd place finishes last year. His strong finish in the fall race despite being eliminated from the playoffs tells us a lot about his drive. Ryan also seems to be taking his recent near misses in stride.

“We led a little bit and ran pretty good, we just corded a right rear at the end. We lost the lead there at the beginning of the third stage and kind of got swallowed up and the 88 got away and got gone.

Ryan Blaney after last week’s Auto Club 400

Only he, Kyle Busch, MTJ, and Denny Hamlin finished in the Top 3 over the two 2019 Phoenix races. That’s pretty good company. Blaney and his #12 Mustang have been fast this year regardless of the results, so my first thought was to look at the Top 3 prices. My logic sees last year’s results and 2020’s near misses, and assigns a 33% chance of a repeat (+200) on Sunday. Ryan was +275 to finish in the Top 3 mid-week but that dropped to +225 by Thursday morning. My perceived edge over the bet went from 6.7% to 2.5%. Time to look elsewhere.

The Battle of My Fontana Fails

Last week’s plays from the BetCrushers AutoClub 400 handicap were Ryan Blaney over William Byron and Joey Logano Top 5. Logano faded out of contention as Blaney’s late-race tire unraveling sent him a lap down with only two laps to go. I circled this -115 pick ’em on Wednesday then confirmed the bet after it moved to Blaney +105 Thursday morning. I would feel comfortable playing this matchup at +100 or better.

Logano won at Phoenix in 2016, had a pair of Top 10s here in 2019, and is also a Team Penske driver. This is not a bad track for Joey, per se. I handicapped this matchup as Blaney 55% to win, based on two factors: 1) Logano’s probable range of finish is around 12th-8th and 2) Blaney is in Top 3 form – barring another wacky ending to his day. A 6.2% perceived edge on this plus-money play is good in my eyes, especially with the possibility for Logano to fall flat and give Blaney a bigger cushion. Let’s see if the kid can fade another unfortunate ending.

Jimmie Johnson’s Farewell Tour

Jimmie Johnson’s retirement has certainly not been overlooked by the NASCAR community. Much to my mother-in-law’s chagrin, there’s going to be a lot of talking about the accomplishments of the Seven-time Champion at all points on the 2020 circuit. And guess what, he’s giving his fans some hope. Jimmie followed up a disappointing day at Daytona with a 5th in Vegas and 7th at Fontana. The #48 hasn’t been the fastest car this year, but William Byron has been consistently less impressive.

“Just gotta know where the wall’s at, you know, and I was just trying to get my angle for Turn 1 and just nicked it a little bit,” Byron told FOX Sports. “Just got to figure out where it is. We have a little more windshield block out here, so my line of sight’s a little different. So just getting used to that. The car’s pretty good. I think we’re about P10 or 11 in race trim. Need a little more speed, but I thought qualifying trim was obviously good, too.”

NASCAR.com: Elliott, Byron top Phoenix practices in Hendrick Motorsports sweep

William Byron drove what was allegedly a Top 10 car in Friday’s practices, though I question whether he will execute a Top 10 race on Sunday. Maybe I’m getting caught up in the Jimmie hype, or maybe there truly is something to him giving this season everything he’s got left. Or it’s a little bit of both plus Cliff Daniels having more experience as crew chief after taking over in July 2019. Anything can happen on the Phoenix mile, but give me the vet whose team truly is in Top 10 form.

Batter Up!

March Madness is underway as conference tournaments are now in full swing. If you get down with the MLB, be sure to check out our divisional previews and season win total breakdowns on the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe to email alerts as new handicapping articles are released!