Being overly selective this time of year has its pros and cons. On the positive side, you can slim down the MLB card by eliminating huge favorites and teams who’ve are significantly underperforming. The major detraction is that there are days where I don’t make any plays.
Successful sports betting isn’t about action, though. I’ll be the first to admit that the first half of the season was much less about selectivity and set a negative tone. No need to chase early losses at this point, especially this time of the year. A ton of work is needed to adjust our NFL ratings and grind out good ROI on NASCAR matchups.
That being said, it’s time to take aim at Friday’s MLB slate. There wasn’t much cookin’ with the overnights, except one game that looked like an even matchup without much line value. Then I dug in deep, and came out with this…
NY Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Glimmer of Hope: Mets -110
I was stung by a Giants club on Tuesday that cooled off after a massive run after the ASB. Hot streaks inevitably come to an end. Fact. So why am I looking at a 53-55 Mets club that has won 7 games in a row? Their opponent is part of it, and the pitching matchup is another.
The Mets have won 9 of 10, including a 3-game sweep of the Pirates at Citi Field. These wins came against similarly-mediocre teams like the White Sox and Padres, but the matchup with tonight’s opponent is a favorable one in my opinion. The Pirates have lost 9 of 10, with the lone win coming in the “brawl game” in Cincinnati. It was an 11-4 thumping with suspensions looming.
Pittsburgh has played themselves out of the playoff race with their current funk, despite having some recent explosive offensive outputs. Unfortunately, they’ve managed to be outscored in those games. The Pirates bullpen has been a key contributor to those high-scoring losses.
Both relief units have a reputation of being very unreliable this season, though I give the Mets bullpen an edge for current form. New York’s relievers have been very effective at suppressing runs lately; a big reason why the team has yielded 4+ runs in only 2 of their last 10 games.
Matz vs. Williams
In the first cut, I handicapped Steven Matz and Trevor Williams fairly evenly. Williams has a better WHIP and home run ratio, but Matz gets more ground ball contact and has a slightly lower ERA and xFIP. This deep in the season, it behooves the handicapper to look deeper into the mass of stats and box scores to determine what the guy will do today.
Steven Matz did some time in the bullpen before being called back to the rotation after the ASB. His 3 latest starts included a short, yet effective, outing against the powerful Twins, a quality start at San Francisco, and a complete game shutout of these Pirates at Citi Field. Matz has a 0.95 WHIP, 15 K/2 BB ratio, and 32.1% fly ball rate in 19 innings on this run.
It is not reasonable to expect another shutout tonight, but it is fair to say that Steven looks good right now. He hasn’t given up multiple home runs in a game since June 24th, and only 1 homer since then (at MIN). Trevor Williams dueled with Matz on July 27th, going 7 innings with 3 earned runs and a strong 7 K/2 BB ratio. However, he has not been dependable since he gave up 7 runs against the Tigers on June 19th.
Williams’ big problem lately has been the long ball. In the 3 games after the ASB, he’s yielded 6 home runs and 12 earned runs. Hard contact has been a minimal 28.3% yet the 45.3% fly ball rate and 25.0% HR/FB ratio tells me that opponents are capitalizing on some critical mistakes. If you factor in his outings since the Detroit start, the home run and earned run rates are even higher.
Buy Low, Sell High?
This is a cornerstone principle of success in any market. So is it time to expect Matz to fall back to mediocrity and Willams to shake off the home run bug? Perhaps, but not for me tonight. The Mets aren’t overly explosive at the plate right now, though that could change against Williams and the Pittsburgh bullpen. I can see Matz having a solid outing with enough run support for the Mets bullpen to sneak by with.
Trevor Williams has been trending negatively for some time now. He’s surrendered a home run in each of his last 7 starts, 4 of which were multi-homer games. The Pirates benefit from a day off Thursday but I’m not convinced we get a full effort from this shorthanded club. This is a rare spot where I’m willing to back the Mets on the road. Could be a tight one, but New York is the side for me.
