On a couple occasions during this young season I’ve noted the downside protection that run line plays offer when compared to laying -120 or greater on favorites. Forgoing the juice and coughing up a flat unit bet when the team loses the game can add incremental value in the form of money saved over a 6-month season. But the other side to the coin is losing the bet when your team wins by 1 run. This is a major caution to blindly betting run lines, especially because you can always stick to underdogs and get plus money without this catch. After all, sometimes the best bets are those you don’t make.
The key to successfully betting run line favorites is understanding where you have an advantage. This requires tracking all your bets and comparing the results to the equivalent money line lays. My track record with this approach is a significant net positive in those situations where my handicapping leads me to a favorite. It’s similar to the shots I take on NFL underdogs where the payoff can be substantial, but losing when you would have covered with the points can be emotionally challenging. At least MLB gives you a chance to get right back at it the next day.
I digress, but only because a couple run line plays crapped out when the team won by 1 run yesterday. Berrios stifled the Phillies but not enough to beat them outright. I felt that Eflin could go toe-to-toe with Berrios for 5 good innings, but he exceeded expectations by going 7 and only giving up a solo shot. A good opportunity was there in the bottom of the 8th, but you can’t count on those miracle covers to make it work. Big props to the Twins’ ace. Also, the Braves got the win in 10 but not enough for the run line bet.
The only good thing about the Mets play yesterday was not having to sweat that +125 ticket. You had to know Scherzer was money in the bank after the Nationals jumped on them early. NY put a rally together late but it was inconsequential. The bright spots came in the NL Central, where the Brewers and Cardinals punched a pair of run line winners. The +330 covered the 3 earlier losses, and the Dodgers took care of business to end the day 3-3 and up 1.3 units.
Talk about a weird day of betting the MLB. It’s a long season, so keep it in perspective. It took me several years to develop a mental and emotional state to move on quickly from days like Sunday.
Monday is a light day with 10 games on the slate. Plenty of teams I have my eye on to see how they perform; only 1 ticket in hand.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Heading back to the scene where one of yesterday’s run line backfires took place: Citizens Bank Park. Washington comes off of a 12-run extravaganza against the Mets and the 12 walks they issued. They split a 2-game series in D.C. last week that saw Philadelphia score 8 runs in each game. Anibal Sanchez takes the mound and carries the burden of keeping the Philly bats in check tonight. The veteran has been working his cutter in lieu of the fastball, which proved effective for a bounce back season in 2018. However, Sanchez can be vulnerable to the long ball…and the Phillies are a team that like to mash.
The Phillies scored only 2 runs in each of their last 2 games. Overreacting is all part of the sports commentary world but you have to stay level-headed when handicapping. I don’t think run production is going to be an issue today, though asking for 8 runs every time you’re backing Philly is unrealistic. Vince Velasquez is one of those coin-flip guys who can control a lineup or get yanked very early. He likely won’t get past 5 innings since that is the proper way to manage his effectiveness.
Not to sound like a broken record player, but the Phillies must bounce Sanchez by the 5th inning to make this a true bullpen game. I give a strong edge to Philly’s bullpen over the Nationals’. Washington’s relievers have the “ability” to give the home team a solid lead if Velasquez pitches a respectable first half.
