Darlington Raceway: The Lady in Black. The Cup Series may be taking a week off, but The BetCrushers Team is revved up to give you our NASCAR race preview at Darlington. It’s a good thing they give the teams a break after Bristol before heading to South Carolina. Darlington’s tumultuous history with NASCAR includes memorable moments like Earnhardt passing out during a race and Yarborough catapulting over the outer wall.
Many will never forget Darlington as one of the original homes of NASCAR racing. It used to feature two races per year before the proliferation of tracks throughout the U.S. in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The Southern 500 came, went, and returned to its Labor Day home in 2015. Since then, the race has promoted itself as a throwback with many drivers sporting old school paint schemes.
Darlington Raceway Track Overview
The 70 year-old, 1.37-mile track is…well, it’s close to being an oval. Darlington Raceway is often described as egg-shaped with each end offering a different pair of turns. Turns 1 & 2 are more sweeping and slightly more banked than Turns 3 & 4. The major implication of this layout is that even the top cars will perform better in one pair of turns than they will in the other, making for some interesting give-and-take racing.
The Southern 500 is actually 501 miles over 367 laps and is one hell of an endurance test in the late-summer South Carolina heat. One thing is for certain at Darlington: cars will be kissing the wall next Saturday night. You’ll see the infamous “Darlington Stripe” on the right side of quite a few cars (maybe on the left side of a couple, too) from trading paint with the wall. Pit road is split into two along both the frontstretch and backstretch, giving two drivers a an advantageous front pit stall.
Practices and Qualifying
The Southern 500 is run on Saturday night, so pre-race sessions are spread over the preceding Thursday and Friday. Dual practices will take place Thursday afternoon with qualifying the following day. We’ll post our usual mid-week pre-qualification handicapping article next week, followed by our final handicapping piece early Saturday morning. If you’re new to our NASCAR coverage, check out the Bristol Night Race final analysis for a taste of what to expect.
Winning at Darlington Raceway
This race has been won the last few years by big guns Brad Keselowski (2018), Denny Hamlin (2017), and Martin Truex, Jr. (2016). Prior to the #2 Ford’s win last year, the race was taken down by Toyotas and Chevys for eleven straight years. Here’s an interesting take from fellow NASCAR handicapper @NASCARstyleodds:
For what it’s worth, the last time a top driver didn’t claim the checkered flag at Darlington was Regan Smith in 2011. Smith’s win from the 23rd starting position was the deepest since 2003. Winning from too far back is very uncommon here; 17 of the last 18 winners started no further back than 13th place. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Kevin Harvick was the last guy to earn the pole and win the race in 2014 during the playoffs.
The sportsbooks may not have odds and head-to-head matchups on the board yet, but that isn’t stopping us from scoping out some follows and fades for the Southern 500. Let’s take a look at guys that we’re anxious to see who they get matched up with and at what prices.
Follow Them for a Payday
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick won at Darlington back in 2014, which was his first year with Stewart-Haas Racing. He won the pole that year and rode it all the way to victory. The #4 Ford has been racing well since New Hampshire, notching a pair of wins and four T10 finishes. Last week’s clutch issues left him dead last at Bristol, though it’s hard to knock him for that.
Harvick has been a perennial Top-10 finisher at Darlington since 2013 and has actually been in the Top 5 for five of the last six runnings. In fact, he had the pole in three of the last five races (2014, 2016, 2017). The Lady in Black is one of Harvick’s best tracks since moving to Stewart-Haas. We’re interested to see if there will be any value on the #4 next week.
Denny Hamlin
Denny is fresh off of a strong Bristol victory and is in the midst of a huge run of six Top-5 finishes in a row on the Cup circuit. During this run, he has two wins and a pair of runner up’s. Hamlin is another guy who excels at Darlington, having a couple wins (2010, 2017) and three 2nd place finishes in his career. He finished outside of the Top 10 only twice in 13 races here. Our concern is there will be little to no value on Hamlin given these undeniable factors.
Kyle Larson
Our eyes will be on matchups involving Kyle Larson. He’s been in the hunt in all five of his Cup Series races at Darlington, recording four T10 finishes. Larson likes to play with fire in the high line, so he’ll be right at home with a Darlington Stripe on his speedy Chevrolet.
Kyle won the first two stages on his way to a 3rd place finish last year and has shown improvement throughout his short Darlington career. Additionally, you have to like his current form as the NASCAR regular season winds down. He’s in 11th place in the playoff standings and must finish strong to get into postseason contention. The stars appear to be aligning for the #42 team, and we expect a strong performance from them next weekend.
Fade Material?
Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman has been dancing around 15th place for a couple months now. He’s failed to finish in the Top 20 at Darlington in his short Cup Series career, though some of this can be attributed to his awkward promotions to the championship series level. Even with a 4th place start last year, he failed to finish with the lead pack.
Expectations have been relatively high for Bowman in the #88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet this year. He is in playoff contention right now at the 10 spot. However, Bowman hasn’t parlayed a strong spring, including a June win at Chicagoland, into late-season momentum. Couple that with his struggles at Darlington and we’ll be looking for opportunities to play against him.
Clint Bowyer
Clint’s name has come up a few times this season as a guy we’ve wanted to play against. The odds were right in a couple of those scenarios and the results paid off. The Southern 500 could very well be another successful fade situation against the #14 Ford. Despite finishing close to the Top 10 earlier this decade, Bowyer has failed to be a contender the last few years at Darlington. An accident sidelined him last year and engine problems took him out in 2017.
It may seem fluky, but this is the way things go for the #14 team. Accidents happen. Mechanical and tire failures happen. Clint Bowyer has arguably had more than his fair share of knockouts this season, being taken out five times due to accident. When he’s able to finish the race, his veteran skills have led him to some good finishes. As far as we’re concerned, Bowyer’s boom-or-bust track record often earns himself a spot on our fade list. Darlington just may be another such scenario once the matchup odds are released.
Upcoming BetCrushers.com Schedule
We’re taking advantage of the extra week to produce a guide to playing the NASCAR Cup Series playoff futures. That article will drop this weekend on BetCrushers.com, then we’ll be back on our typical race week schedule. We’ll handicap key matchups on Wednesday and then give our final thoughts early Saturday morning before the night race. Don’t miss it!
