Opening Day did not disappoint me and the BetCrushers Team (who did better than my solo pick with a couple add-on winners). Berrios was absolutely dominant, which was a must for the Twins to get a +105 W over an on-point Kluber in front of a depleted Tribe lineup. When you only find one play to start the season, it’s big to hit the bullseye and start 2019 1-0. The first couple weeks are an opportune time to calibrate team ratings and then hit it hard.
In my leadoff article yesterday, I mentioned that a sharp MLB handicapper told me years ago that betting favorites would break my bankroll. I still follow that advice…mostly because I learned that the hard way early on. Don’t get me wrong though, there’s enough sharp long-term winners that know how to pick their shots. It’s a matter of style.
With that being said, I’m laying a couple (short) home favorites today:
LA Angels @ Oakland A’s
Mike Fiers’ 1-hit Opening Day start led the A’s to a 4-0 shutout of the Angels. Oakland flashed some leather to accompany timely hits to get the W for the home crowd.
Matt Harvey takes the mound tonight for the Halos, who we project to have below-average offensive production despite a slightly above-average run-producing efficiency rating. Harvey was a rare gem for Cincinnati last year but will likely be turning the ball over to a weak bullpen early. This Angels team generally lacks depth in its lineup (though not quite as bad as Cleveland, as we noted yesterday).
On the flip side, Oakland should be able to rely on their strong bullpen to maintain an early lead the A’s may be able to muster. They have a better overall lineup that we expect to produce more baserunners and efficiently move them around the bases in their spacious ballpark. We don’t expect greatness out of Estrada, just enough to keep the Angels at bay.
WAGER: A’s -110
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee held onto a small lead to edge out the Cards on Opening Day, 5-4. It was a game that saw all scoring come from the long ball; something we expect more so from St. Louis and their expected scoring efficiency. In fact, it took a heroic catch at the wall from Lorenzo Cain to end the game and secure the Brewers win.
Today’s matchup pits a pair of high-strikeout guys we don’t expect to go deep into the game. Bullpen availability should not be a significant factor after yesterday, so the overall bullpen edge that lies with the Brewers can still make the difference. The underlying concern with Milwaukee tonight is Peralta’s tendency to keep the bases occupied, which could spell trouble if the Cardinals capitalize with the long ball again. The Crew’s bullpen must be sharp to get the win.
