YANNI – Status – Alive (0 misses)
JJ – Status – Alive (0 misses)

Teams Used:

YANNI
none

JJ
none

Overview:

The BetCrushers have been actively participating in “survivor” picks contests for the past decade. During that time we’ve tested different approaches and methods and over the past few years, used computer projections to help determine who the best play might be on a given week. The biggest takeaway that we’ve learned throughout this process is there is not a magic formula, method, or numerology in making your picks. A survivor contest is one of the most enjoyable football wagers you can play because it truly is all about what you’re feeling and choosing. It’s also a very “easy” play that anyone can participate in. You don’t need to be a football genius in order to play and do well. Sure there is some strategy and skill involved, but think about NCAA March Madness… How many times is the winner of that pool someone who hasn’t watched more than 10 minutes of college basketball during the season?

A little housekeeping on our weekly Survivor picks:
You can find survivor contests pretty much anywhere and everywhere, just do a quick Google search. Fanduel offers a free contest where you can win money. CBS and ESPN both host contests or you can create your own and invite your friends and family. For the purpose of our site, we play throughout the season, even after we lose. (Unless we’re fortunate enough to go wire-to-wire, which we have done). We encourage you to trust your gut and make your picks, but in case you’re wondering, we’ve done quite well historically in these contests. Feel free to tag along if you’d like to join us and let’s get those W’s!

Strategy / Odds:

There are really three main ways to tackle a Survivor pick. We mentioned earlier that you can rely on computer-simulated analytics, but for our pool we’re throwing that one out. That leaves us with two pretty simplistic options. You can try to play it safe, or you can really take some chances.

Gambling early on can help you out during the tougher weeks later in the season, however if you miss early on and leave the top teams still on your board it’s basically a “what’s the point” scenario? Think about that TV show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? As the questions get tougher it’s great to still have your “lifelines” available to you, but the ultimate mistake is losing while still having your lifelines in your back pocket to use. The same concept applies with a survivor pick and while the BetCrushers will take some mild chances, you won’t see us doing anything too crazy. It can be pretty tempting to take a lower-tier team like the Detroit Lions in week 1 figuring you won’t be able to use them safely later in the season. If they get the W, you look like a genius and have saved some great teams, but if they lose your contest is over before it even starts.

This is fundamental, however if you’re not the most football savvy student of the game and are more in a pool for fun and participation, you’ll want to take a look at who is favored to win. If a team is heavily favored to win on the Moneyline, it’s highly likely that they will do so. Taking a look at week 1, here are the four heaviest favored teams:

One thing that is always recommended is taking a look at the schedule looking out months ahead. Give yourself an idea of some matchups you might like to help you decide on your current week pick. Just pick a winner straight up. Easy right?

Our Picks:

The BetCrushers narrowed their week 1 choices down to the same five teams, including the four heavy favorites above. It’s hard to picture any of the top four losing in week one but let’s examine each quickly.

If Josh Rosen were playing QB Baltimore would be a slam dunk. Ryan Fitzpatrick has the uncanny ability to go crazy on occasion, especially early on with a team. That’s the only thing that could potentially trip up Baltimore against a Miami team that is really in complete disarray. It’s also generally not a great idea to choose a road team in Survivor, but there can be exceptions.

The Eagles are the largest favorite of opening week as they’re also playing a Washington Redskins team with a lot of questions. The BetCrushers has a Super Bowl futures bet on Philly if that tells you anything about our thoughts on their prospects this year. This is a divisional game, and Washington will certainly bring some effort though.

Seattle actually seems like the biggest opportunity for a blowout game in week one. It wouldn’t be shocking for the Seahawks to put a four touchdown beating on the Bengals at home. Call it some weird intuition, but this game could end up being a lot closer than a lot of people think.

Another divisional matchup in the NFC East as Dallas hosts the Giants. Ezekiel Elliot is back and a lot richer and even though the Cowboys have a couple of big injuries on defense they should be able to handle the Giants as they have done routinely over the past few years.

As the dust settles, JJ is going with the Philadelphia Eagles and Yanni is taking a slight gamble with the Baltimore Ravens. Philly is a little less likely to lose at home, but it’s a little tougher to find a good place to play Baltimore down the line. Best of luck to everyone with a week 1 Survivor pick, let’s see who’s surviving to week two!