It has come to this. A 2-2 push on Sunday neither harms nor fouls the bankroll, but was oddly a huge relief considering it could have easily been an 0-4 day. The 0-fer would have been a hell of a lot more appropriate for my current run, BTW.
Highlights: Jean Segura jacks a 2-run bomb in the 14th to save my ass and get the Phillies run line W. The Twins hold off Miguel Cabrera and 8 other guys for a 6-4 run line W. Berrios was very good, striking out 7 and giving up 2 runs in 6-2/3 innings. The bullpen did everything to get as close as possible to blowing it, but conveniently stopped short of a meltdown.
Lowlights: Scherzer was rusty early against the Pirates, but the Nationals’ bats battled back. As expected, the Washington bullpen blew the tie in the 9th and took the loss. In all respects the run line was toast anyways. The only reason I put the Giants game in the “lowlights” category is because I lost the +106 wager, but must give a tip of the cap to German Marquez and his 1-hit shutout to end the Rockies’ 8-game losing streak. An absolute gem.
Today starts a new week. Although it’s an arbitrary way of looking at it, I’m optimistic that it starts a swing in the right direction. Last week was a disaster, and it ends down 7.5 units on the season. The week alone brought just shy of a 9-unit loss. Catching a couple lucky breaks yesterday helped to clear the mind and exorcize a few demons. It’s a new week, so let’s get down to business on a short Monday card in the MLB…
Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners
Curb your enthusiasm, Cleveland and Seattle. The past weekend was sobering for both clubs, possibly more so for the Indians than the M’s. Seattle rattled off 6 straight wins on the road then came home and was swept by the surging Astros. Cleveland had put a nice run together before a sweep at the hands of the Royals. Who will respond better from these wake up call?
Cleveland puts one of its best arms on the mound tonight in Trevor Bauer. After seeing Kluber get roughed up yesterday, Francona and the Tribe absolutely need a stopper on the road. Bauer has been a boss this year, striking out 24 in 19.2 innings. His only sub-par outing was on the 10th against Detroit, giving up 4 runs on 10 hits and a pair of homers. Before the Detroit start, he had only given up 1 hit. The Cleveland bats come out at times but have mostly been silent this season.
Yusei Kikuchi’s acclimation to the MLB has been a work in progress. He gives up runs mainly because he pitches to contact and is not a high-K guy. Whether or not this is a big liability tonight against Cleveland’s offense is an unknown. Seattle’s offense (until Saturday and Sunday) this year has been an impressive blend of getting runners on base and scoring…the best in all of baseball. Verlander and Cole cooled those bats down and they face another strong arm tonight.
This is an intriguing matchup that pits strength vs. strength and may come down to which weak spot of the teams rises to the occasion. Will it be Cleveland’s bats or Seattle’s arms that get it done tonight? I’ve discussed this Mariners club with the BetCrushers guys 0ver the weekend and our concern was the attention they were getting with “the public” and how it had skewed the betting lines. The market’s perception of both clubs may be as low as it’s been this year and I don’t know where this number will go through the day. For me, I believe the value lies with the home dog despite the huge risk that Bauer will go 7 innings of 1-run ball and turn it over to a top-tier bullpen.
WAGER: Mariners +104
NY Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
This classic NL East battle features a pair of top-notch pitchers fighting for the top spot in the division. If you’re looking for one of the best arms in the game, look no further than Noah Syndergaard. However, the Mets’ rotation has not been on top of its game this season. Thor has one of the best heaters and embarrassing sliders in the MLB, riding his arsenal to 20 Ks in 2019. He’s fairly reliable to go 7 strong innings, which takes the pressure off of a bullpen that has been iffy so far this year.
Despite Syndergaard giving up 10 earned runs, one could argue that those runs have been a product of timely hitting in “big innings”. The Phillies are capable of taking advantage of similar circumstances, although those bats have been erratic lately. The strong point of this team so far has been the offense, who meets up with a good young arm in Aaron Nola.
Nola is known for limiting hard contact but has given up 5 home runs this year already. He’s not necessarily a strike out guy so facing a tough Mets lineup could be trouble at Citizens Bank Park tonight. The Phillies offense was held to 3 runs in their last 2 games at Miami, which is not a good formula against Thor. I like the Mets’ bats supporting one of the game’s best arms tonight. Give me Syndergaard and the dog.
WAGER: Mets +105
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have been taking care of business this season, despite one of the shakiest bullpens in the league. And by shaky, I mean they know how to put guys on base and then wiggle their way out of it more often than not. Their offense has been very opportunistic by stringing together good at bats and scoring in clusters. But today, they bring a long reliever out to start against a weak Blue Jays lineup. Martin Perez has a very good K rate, but gives up a lot of walks and runs (8 runs in 8.1 IP). If he cannot command his pitches, can he make it past the 4th inning? If not, can the Twins relievers walk the tightrope for an extended period?
Matt Shoemaker takes the mound for the low-scoring Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have the ability to keep this one tight with Shoemaker out there, especially because he can go deep into the game. Their offense is considerably weaker than the Twins, but most of us know that starting pitching can be the greatest factor in handicapping games. I’ll take the better arm and hold my nose with this bet.
