Preview:

Only over a week removed from the Buccaneers dominant win in Super Bowl LV and we’re already peaking ahead at some possible future plays, as we try to figure out who’s most likely to win Super Bowl LVI in 2022.

Not surprisingly, the Bucs and Chiefs open as the favorites to get back to the big game and win the Championship. Despite their overwhelming win, Tampa Bay is actually behind the Chiefs in terms of odds at +700 compared to the Chiefs +500. The Packers and Bills round out the top 4 as participants of the conference championship games.

Examining Super Bowl LVI Early Odds

Every team will enter the spring and upcoming season with new life and high expectations, although some will certainly be higher than others. Las Vegas has released it’s initial compilation of odds for the next winner of the Lombardi trophy. Odds vary slightly so as always if you have a team you like, you’ll want to shop around with sportsbooks, but let’s take a look at what Bovada is opening with below:

It can be pretty exciting to get the conversation going about the upcoming year’s football season, particularly when you may be going through some early withdrawals. You might be tempted to place an early futures wager on your favorite team, or the one you think has the best shot at winning in 2022. Let us be the first to remind you that the NFL offseason is about as unpredictable as the foreign stock market in terms of the amount of roster fluctuation we’ll see before the start of next season. This offseason offers a lot of intrigue at the most important position of quarterback as the decisions of some of the games all time best have big decisions to make, and some other teams may be jockeying for a new veteran starter. The odds above will change dramatically after some of the QB musical chairs completes its rotation and the music stops.

With so much unknown this early does it make sense to place a futures bet and if so where is the best place to start? There are varying opinions on getting a ticket in at this stage, but depending on what you’re looking for you may be able to find some real value. If you’re thinking about making a play here’s what we would recommend:

Start by determining if there is a team you strongly believe has an opportunity to win the big game. Take a look at the potential payout from the odds and you can decide if it’s worth taking a flyer on. Before you punch that ticket though, do your homework on potential free agents to determine which teams could lose valuable pieces and who should return most of their lineup. Rumors are swirling about marquee talent like Deshaun Watson, who would vault almost any team’s odds if he’s dealt, which most still believe he will. Timing can be crucial, if firm news breaks about a key player’s movement, you can sometimes beat the book before the odds change. For the purpose of this article however, we’re simply looking at the factors we know today and determining which teams could provide an opportunity for a futures win.

Breaking Down the Teams and Value

Kansas City Chiefs +500
A year ago the Chiefs opened at +600 which seems a little wonky as they were a clear favorite to win heading into the season. Perhaps the unknown at the time of Chris Jones as a free agent and the difficulty repeating as back-to-back led to those odds. At +500 it’s clear that the public and the books believe in a bounceback from Patrick Mahomes and the team. It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs not going deep in the playoffs again as the corp is intact and they’ll get some help back on their offensive line. At just 5-1 though there doesn’t seem to be great payoff in a game with so many variables.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
If it weren’t so hard to repeat as Super Bowl Champions, this would probably be the most appealing bet out there. The Bucs gelled at the right time down the stretch and steamrolled through the best quarterbacks and teams in the league en route to their championship. There are some questions heading into next season as Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett and Chris Gowdin are all free agents, and of course we have to ask the yearly question of whether or not Lombardi tossing Tom Brady will finally decline physically? Assuming Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time for one more season, he’ll keep this team focused enough to make another run.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

Green Bay Packers +1100
For a team that many felt down the stretch of the regular season would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, opening at 11-1 odds sounds pretty appealing. It may not be all good in Titletown however as the Packers were exposed in some areas that highlighted where they need to improve. As always, this team rides on the shoulders of MVP Aaron Rodgers, but can he duplicate his performances again next year? One has to wonder if last year wasn’t the best opportunity for Rodgers and the Packers to experience the Super Bowl?
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Buffalo Bills +1300
If you believe in progression of teams, the Buffalo Bills are following the path as they now firmly expect to be playing in meaningful football games in January. You have to believe the coaching staff learned from some of their playoff mistakes and Josh Allen should only continue to develop his confidence and improve. This team truly plays together which should help them with their continuity, and their schedule is actually a little softer (on paper) than a year ago. The AFC has plenty of competition, and the Bills aren’t in the best spot with the salary cap. With that being said, GM of the Year Brandon Beane should figure out a way to have enough firepower on both sides of the ball to have the Bills in contention again.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

Baltimore Ravens +1600
The Ravens were up and down and up again, before falling flat again in the playoffs. There is a clear faction that believes Lamar Jackson and this offense is not designed to win a Super Bowl. It’s a fair question to debate, but one thing is clear, and that is the Ravens need to add a legitimate wide receiver weapon to their arsenal. One year ago at this time an arguably similar Ravens team opened at +800, so if you liked them a year ago, you’re getting good value here. Baltimore is a team that you don’t want to play in the playoffs despite their early failures. It seems tough to see them winning 3+ games to take home the Super Bowl trophy though.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Los Angeles Rams +1600
It’s pretty amazing to see what the Rams accomplished with what they ended the season with at quarterback. They’ll look to their defense to carry them again in 2021, but this time the offense should be more potent when needed. The trade for Matthew Stafford sent a message that the Rams believe they can win now. LA doesn’t have a lot of glaring holes on the roster and Stafford’s abilities should allow Sean McVay to be even more creative offensively. If the defense can play anywhere close to what they did a year ago and Stafford can stay healthy, this team could be a serious contender.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

San Francisco 49ers +1600
At first glance it might seem odd that a team that missed the playoffs that plays in a tough division would be at +1600, but there’s a reason. In simple terms, that is this team is still very good on both sides of the ball. No team was decimated more by injuries than SF and they’ll get key players back like Nick Bosa and a trio of wide receivers. It’s fair to guess that these odds are also factoring in the possibility that the team could acquire a new quarterback, “cough” Deshaun Watson, perhaps? The Niners have some work to do in the offseason, but the core of this team is strong. No matter who is playing QB, they are a clear candidate to be a bounce back team and have a chance in the NFC.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

Seattle Seahawks +2200
It’s only February, but the offseason is starting out a little rocky in Seattle with some rumors of unhappiness between the Seahawks and franchise face Russell Wilson. Chances are this will get resolved, but the Seahawks are built the wrong way, from the skill positions to the big men. As nice as it is to have some weapons like D.K. Metcalf and beasts like veteran Bobby Wagner, the lack of offensive and defensive line play really hurts this team. They’re a little limited with what they can do in free agency so it could be another repeat of last season. In what figures to again be the best division in the league, the Hawks’ figure to struggle to be one of the top two teams.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Cleveland Browns +2200
If the Seahawks have their team built the wrong way, the Cleveland Browns are built the right way. Their offensive line makes it possible for Baker Mayfield to be successful, and he should continue to progress next year. The running game should be good again, but the team could benefit from adding a wide receiver no matter what happens with their current bunch. Ultimately, it will be the defense that determines how far this team can go next year as they need to improve in several areas. At 22-1 though, this is clearly a team you’ll want to consider.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

New Orleans Saints +2200
This is the lowest the Saints have been entering a season in the last 5 years, which makes sense as their future Hall of Fame QB will no longer be under center. The cupboard is certainly not empty in New Orleans as the defense should be strong again and they still have names like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on offense. It remains to be seen who will primarily be the QB, but as different of a challenge as someone like Taysom Hill poses, you won’t convince us that this team will be better overall without Brees. You can’t fully count out a team like the Saints, but it’s really difficult to picture them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy next season.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Indianapolis Colts +2800
If you like playing the lottery, the Colts might be the ticket for you when it comes to Super Bowl futures. Currently, their QB situation is unknown with Philip Rivers announcing his retirement. The team has been mentioned most notably as a possible trade destination for Carson Wentz and a reunion with head coach Frank Reich could be the spark that Wentz, and the Colts need. Truth be told, the Colts are a good football team across the board and the quarterback position would seem to be the key to the chance they’d have at a Super Bowl championship. We’re getting into more of “long shot” territory at +2800, but if you believe in taking a chance, the Colts are a team that should find their way into the playoffs and will be a tough out. The value is pretty seismic here though as the QB finality will determine the practicality of a championship.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Pittsburgh Steelers +3000
Remember when the Pittsburgh Steelers started the season 11-0? It seems like an eternity as the team limped it’s way to the end of the season looking flat out bad at times. They’ll enter next season presumably with Ben Roethlisberger giving it one more go, which is probably not a great thing for the team. Add in the fact that the offensive line is going to be worse than it’s been in a decade and this team is going to have some trouble on the offensive side of the ball. The defense should be healthier and keep them competitive, but this team looks like a third place finisher in the division they’re accustomed to owning.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Miami Dolphins +3300
In 2020 the Dolphins took a big step and went from the laughing stock of the league to a team that opponents didn’t necessarily want to line up and face. Give head coach Brian Flores some credit as they’ll have another potentially strong draft and could be active again in free agency. The real question is will they ride Tua Tagavailoa to determine whether or not he’s the next answer for the franchise? That dilemma alone seems to be what would keep this team from winning, if they’re able to make it to the playoffs.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Dallas Cowboys +3500
The top free agent in the offseason is Dallas Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott, who by all accounts should be returning and fresh off a rehabbed ankle injury. Prescott gives this team a chance to win, particularly if they can get some pieces back on their offensive line that was decimated by their own injuries. Despite what could be a potent offense like we saw the first month of the 2020 season, this defense would need to get substantially better for them to legitimately have a shot in the NFC. For a team that may not have trouble scoring, 35-1 is a nice payday, but this number seems right about where we’ve got it calculated, so nothing to get excited about overall.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Tennessee Titans +3500
Minus the injuries, you could almost write the same synopsis for the Tennessee Titans at +3500 that we have for the Dallas Cowboys. This team can score, although it does have some free agents to address with wide receiver Corey Davis and tight end Johnnu Smith, but they figure to be fine putting points up again. Can Mike Vrabel find the formula, or more likely the talent on the defensive line to generate a pass rush and control the line of scrimmage defensively? The Titans should again battle the Colts for supremacy in the AFC South, but unless this team really figures out how to stop someone, they’ll only make it so far in the AFC.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Los Angeles Chargers +4000
Most pundits won’t put this on record, but the BetCrushers believe the Chargers can actually challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West next season. The big “if” is whether or not ROTY Justin Herbert finds himself a sophomore slump or if he can progress into a perennial Pro Bowl quarterback. The Chargers were in nearly every game last year and the head coaching switch along with the experience this team had should serve them well. With talent on both sides of the ball including some big names returning from injuries, the sky is the limit for this team if they can figure out how to win close games. If you don’t like them as a Super Bowl winner consider their win total over.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

New England Patriots +4000
The good news for the Patriots is they finally have some cap room to maneuver in re-inventing this roster. The bad news is, they haven’t really drafted well or done particularly great via free agency over the past few seasons. Unless the Patriots can work a deal for one of the big name quarterbacks in a trade, the 2021 season could look a lot like the 2020 season with the Pats’ outside looking in come playoff time. Could this be the final season for Bill Belichick in New England if the team struggles?
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Arizona Cardinals +5000
After a hot start to the season, the Arizona Cardinals fizzled down the stretch as Kyler Murray couldn’t get enough points on the board, and the defense was average at best. The Cardinals are not a bad team so 50-1 isn’t horrible, but playing in the NFC West is going to make it really difficult for them to find their way into the playoffs. If we had to predict at this stage of the year, it looks like a 7-9 campaign in Arizona next season.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Carolina Panthers +5500
If you’re a fan of the Carolina Panthers you should be encouraged with what you saw from this team during the 2020 season. Yes, there is still some uncertainty at the quarterback position, but top to bottom this team is improving and has some good raw talent. With a good offseason and draft, this team could make a leap in head coach Matt Rhule’s second season. We’ve listed their value at a medium because it’s just so unlikely they’ll win the Super Bowl next year, but in reality at +5500 they’re not the worst long shot in the world.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Minnesota Vikings +5500
You could literally see the pain on head coach Mike Zimmer’s face during games last year as he watched his once proud defense completely shredded week in and week out. Injuries didn’t help, but in reality they lacked the talent and depth needed to compete on that side of the ball. While the team will look to revamp that side of the ball, the offensive side of the ball remains the same, some fun pieces with Dalvin Cook and at the wide receiver position, but the always up and down Kirk Cousins at quarterback. This team is capable of beating anyone on a good day, but won’t be strong enough to get through the NFC if they do find a way to sneak into the playoffs.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Las Vegas Raiders +6000
Is there anyone outside of Vegas or maybe Oakland who believes the Raiders are going to take the next step and get into the playoffs next season? Derek Carr may or may not be the starting quarterback next year, but this team just seems like it’s going to perennially be around the .500 mark. The bright spot being they seem to have the Chiefs number, but can’t seem to put the puzzle pieces together in any phase of the game to win consistently. 60-1 seems a little disrespectful to this team, but there isn’t enough value to merit pulling the trigger on a ticket here.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Atlanta Falcons +6600
The Atlanta Falcons are the team that has some sizzle, and every once in a while makes you a believer in what they can possibly be. The fact of the matter is, this team is ions away from their Super Bowl collapse of a few years back and they’re nearing a complete rebuild, which could include saying goodbye to franchise quarterback Matt Ryan and All-Pro Julio Jones. The NFC South could be wide open behind the Bucs’ next season, but there is a very good chance the Falcons could be residing in the basement when it’s all said and done.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Chicago Bears +6600
The Bears “re-committed” to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback and it looks like they’ll enter next season with him as their starter. An improved offensive line and running game helped him considerably and the defense, though not as dominant was still strong. There isn’t a ton to be amped up about if you’re a Bears fan, particularly as Allen Robinson II will likely depart via free agency. If this team can find some receivers, they can at least give the Packers a mild scare in the NFC North, but with Trubisky at QB, they’re not likely to get over the hurdle and go on a playoff run.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Philadelphia Eagles +6600
We’ve given the Eagles the benefit of the doubt the past two seasons, but it’s time to jump off the small bandwagon as this team is in flux. It looks as though Jalen Hurts may get his opportunity to show what he can do, and he played pretty well in limited action last season. This team is paying the price of some poor drafts in recent years, and now has some declining stars they’ll be phasing out like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham as they try to build up some younger talent. Getting over .500 would be a huge accomplishment for this team as they begin their next phase of life after Doug Pederson.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Washington Football Team +7000
They still don’t have a name, but Washington at least has an identity under head coach Ron Rivera. They are a tough and physical team that plays every down and imposes their will when they can. It’s hard to understand why they have longer odds than their divisional counterparts in Philadelphia, so we’re going to highlight the value here. Quarterback is of course the worrisome spot of the roster, but this team should ride it’s defense where it can. They’re not in a spot yet where they can likely win the Super Bowl, however at +7000, for a playoff team that could be improved, there is clearly value there.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH

New York Giants +7500
The New York Giants are hopeful Daniel Jones will take the third year leap into a good starting QB in the league. If he does, this team is solid enough to win some football games. If he doesn’t they’ll be picking early in the draft yet again. There are some pieces to like on this team on both sides of the ball, but at the end of the day, they’re not going anywhere in the 2021 season. Save your money, even at these odds there’s not any value with this group.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Denver Broncos +8000
The season got away from the Broncos before it even got started as they lost arguably their top offensive weapon Courtland Sutton and defensive star Von Miller before opening weekend. The team was up and down throughout the year, showing some flashes, but ultimately struggling more often than not with quarterback Drew Lock feeling the pressure of the local fanbase and media. Denver still has the quarterback conundrum to figure out, but this team is not terrible. You could do a lot worse with 80-1 odds than this team, so if you’re a Bronco fan, maybe consider it? We certainly can’t go there however.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Cincinnati Bengals +10000
It’s almost impossible to handicap this team until we know the status of rookie phenom quarterback Joe Burrow’s rehab. Burrow looked like the real deal and the team could actually be solid with some help on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball. Even with Burrow healthy, they’re still probably a year away from being a legitimate threat in the AFC North, so we’re not getting down with anything crazy here. Let’s all as football fans just cross our fingers and hope that Joey B. can return healthy.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

Jacksonville Jaguars +10000
Optimism is running high in the Duval with Trevor Lawrence headed to town and new head coach Urban Meyer trying his had at the professional game. Lawrence won the championship in his first season at Clemson so clearly he can do that in the NFL as well, right? That’s what’s known as a rhetorical question. The Jaguars should be excited as Lawrence should be their most consistent quarterback since Mark Brunell if all goes according to plan. There is a lot of work that needs to be done with this roster though and Meyer will be learning on the job in some aspects. In 2022, this team could potentially be a playoff contender, but for the 2021 season marginal improvement should be the goal.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM

New York Jets +10000
The Jets are a team that could make the small jump from bottom feeder to average if you want to consider that a small victory. Their biggest question like many of the teams at the bottom of this list is, what do they do with the quarterback position? Do they try to surround Sam Darnold with improved talent, or move on and look to another draft pick as the next franchise gun slinger? Look for an improved team next year, but it’ll still be tough for them to get out of the cellar in the AFC East.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Houston Texans +12500
Sports in the city of Houston have taken a pummeling in recent weeks and the Texans are the biggest mess of all. After releasing local hero J.J. Watt, the team is now faced with forcing an unhappy Deshaun Watson to stay as its QB or trying to deal him and completely rebuild. It’s safe to say there are benefits to either scenario, but neither will make this team contend in 2021. It’s going to be an uphill battle for this team and if they could even come close to the playoffs it would be a minor miracle. Just like a lot of head coaching candidates opted to, stay far away from this team with this wager.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

Detroit Lions +15000
Just one year ago it seemed like the Lions were just a key player or two away from really being a good football team. Fast forward to today and you have a team with arguably the worst defense in the league, a subpar offensive line, and probably losing it’s two wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones in free agency. Oh, and they swapped their quarterback for Jared Goff who finds himself in an absolutely terrible spot on this team. There could be a lot of lopsided scores next year with an offense that may struggle to put points up with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Another rebuild in the Motor City.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW

WHAT WE’LL BE FOLLOWING:

You can spot from the teams we have listed as high value which plays we think are worthy of a ticket, or at least consideration. Our top three probably rest with the Buccaneers, the 49ers and the Rams, all in the NFC. If you’re an AFC fan, look to the Chiefs, Bills and Browns, or possibly the Colts. If you’re looking for a longshot, consider Washington, although they’re a true longshot by definition. There is a lot that can happen between now and week one, so enjoy the offseason and start thinking about your wagers sooner rather than later!

Who’s your early pick for next year’s Super Bowl champ? Let us know!