Previous Week Record – 0-1
Season Record – 52-38
Preview:
The NFL enjoyed back-to-back weekends of enthralling playoff football that concluded with the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals still alive and headed to Super Bowl LVI. For the second year in a row, the host city of Los Angeles will feature a team playing in their home stadium, although SoFi doesn’t always boast a partial crowd to the Rams. (See the Conference Championship game attendance against the rival 49ers). The Rams are headed to their fifth Super Bowl, with a 1-3 record in previous visits, while the Bengals are hoping their third appearance is a charm for their first Lombardi Trophy. As always, there are storylines aplenty, from the coaches to the quarterbacks. With one final football game of the season, there’s one more opportunity to place some wagers, and hopefully come away with some season-ending winnings.
The spread for Super Bowl LVI opened with the Los Angeles Rams a -4 favorite at most books with an over/under set at 50 points. Early bets have favored the Rams and the under as the total has dropped to around 48.5 at most locations. With the emergence of large gambling entities across the world, there are no shortage of other bets to place if you don’t want to play the game against the spread. Can the young upstart Cincinnati Bengals continue to shock the world and give underdog bettors a win, or will the star-studded cast for the Rams control the line of scrimmage and dominate the game in impressive fashion?
Super Bowl LVI
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (15-5) ATS(10-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (13-7) ATS(13-7)
Sunday February 13th, 2022
6:30pm
NBC
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 (-105)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
We’ve always started some of our Super Bowl game analysis with a “tale of the tape”, and can honestly say that this is as tough of a matchup edge by position as we’ve ever graded. The arguments and margins are razor thin at all of the skill positions, which could lend itself to a very competitive game. The big question is whether or not an intangible, such as coaching or special teams could be a difference-maker in determining the winner?
Quarterback – Cincinnati Bengals
Normally it’s pretty easy to select the quarterback you feel has the advantage in a game, even when they’re both talented and skilled. You can debate back and forth between the Rams Matthew Stafford and the Bengals Joe Burrow, both of whom are playing at a high level entering the contest. It seems like whichever quarterback you select here you won’t be wrong because they are so close, and each offer different strengths. Each QB is great against the blitz and aren’t afraid to throw into tight windows when they need to. Stafford has years of NFL experience, yet you can’t discount the big play performances of Burrow, who has won a National Championship in college, and stepped up in the playoffs. Our final rankings for the season had Joe Burrow at 5th and Stafford at 6th, so basically neck and neck. We’ll stick with our rankings and give the slight nod to the youngster.
Running Backs – Cincinnati Bengals
The running back position edge is razor thin now that the Los Angeles Rams have Cam Akers back in the mix. Working in partnership with Sony Michel, this duo is very capable and can absolutely get the job done on early downs and late in the game. Michel is a sound blocker on passing downs and can function as a receiver as well. The only logic we can use here is that the top runner in the game would have to be the Bengals Joe Mixon. He’s a three down back who possesses power and speed and has a nose for finding the end zone when he gets close. As we witnessed against the Chiefs, his backup, Samaje Perine can also get the job done when his number is called, albeit in limited opportunities.
Wide Receivers – Cincinnati Bengals
Speaking of top players, the Rams own the best wide receiver in the game and in the league this season in the technically sound Cooper Kupp. Kupp won the receiving “triple crown” and is an assassin versus both man and zone coverage. He’s the epitome of Dan Patrick’s “you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him”. So with Kupp being the top weapon in the game, why did we give the advantage to the Bengals? Simply put, the overall depth of the Bengals top three receivers is superior to the Rams. Had the Rams not lost Robert Woods earlier in the season, we’d be having a different conversation. If you need a visual, here’s how we have this broken down in rating the team’s receivers. Kupp is a 10, while the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase is a 9. We’ll give both Odell Beckham, Jr. and Tee Higgins a solid 8, so it’s each team’s third receiver that makes the difference here. Tyler Boyd is a captain for the Bengals and a great third down weapon playing mostly in the slot. Van Jefferson has had his moments this year, but overall he is a big dropoff compared to the experience of Boyd. Let’s call it a 6 for Boyd and a 3 for Jefferson. When you add it all up, the Bengals come out on top despite the amazing Cooper Kupp. As analyst Troy Aikman often proclaims, your passing game is only as strong as your third receiver, which favors the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tight Ends – Los Angeles Rams
In a somewhat interesting coincidence, both teams lost their important starting tight ends in the Conference Championship games with a sprained MCL injury. Initially it appeared that both would be gone for the rest of the season, yet it’s now possible that we could see both in time for the Super Bowl. This is tough to handicap until we are able to get a better read on if either of these guys will be able to play. Let’s start with the Ram’s Tyler Higbee, who is one of the more versatile tight ends in the league. If he can go, he provides a much needed additional weapon in the passing game for Matthew Stafford. The Bengal’s C.J. Uzomah became a legitimate threat in his own right this season, and was one of the leading target-getters for the Bengals in their playoff run. Neither backup is particularly exciting, but we’re giving the unproven Kendall Blanton for LA the win over Drew Sample. The latter has more experience as he’s had to fill in on multiple occasions for the Bengals, however he’s been one of the lowest graded tight ends during those occasions. After all of this, these teams seem to be in a true mirror image heading into this game, so there isn’t much to nit-pick over here either way.
Offensive Line – Los Angeles Rams
The first clear advantage goes to the Rams offensive line who have a distinct advantage of their counterparts for the Bengals. Overall, the Rams offensive line is probably just slightly above average compared to the rest of the league, but that gives them a strong edge against the below average line of the Bengals. The Rams are anchored by former Bengal and veteran Andrew Whitworth at left tackle, and are solid at all five positions. With 6th lineman Joe Noteboom scheduled to return, he offers some needed depth if necessary during the game. The Bengals are decent on the left side of their line behind Jonah Williams and Quinton Spain, it’s the rest of the line that can be worrisome. Isaiah Prince has been overwhelmed at times at the right tackle position, and Hakeem Adeniji is inconsistent and struggles in pass blocking. If there is an Achille’s heel for the Bengals, it is in fact their vulnerable offensive line.
Defensive Line – Cincinnati Bengals
Before you freak out when you read this, give us an opportunity to explain why we decided to give this one to the team in the orange and black. If we’re being technical, the Rams defensive line consists of A’Shawn Robinson, Greg Gaines and Aaron Donald. And while Donald is the best player in this game and probably the entire league, overall we like the Bengals group of Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard and D.J. Reader as a collective unit. When you start adding in linebackers that play on the line of scrimmage things switch quickly to the Rams, however if we’re strictly talking about the defensive line, even with All-World superstar Aaron Donald, give us the underrated edge rushers and big body in the middle for the Bengals. Remember, if the Rams overwhelm the Bengals offensive line, it’ll be a combination of their line and linebackers.
Linebackers – Los Angeles Rams
Because we structured this as we did above, you can see why we now like the LA Rams at the linebacker position. Future Hall of Famer Von Miller and veteran Leonard Floyd have come on strong down the stretch and have very winnable matchups against the tackles of the Bengals. The inside of the Rams corp isn’t quite as strong, but they’ll have a healthy Ernest Jones and Troy Reeder who are good enough to not lose a game on defense. Cincinnati has a quiet young star in Logan Wilson, and the flexible Germaine Pratt, however their track record simply can’t match that of the stars for Los Angeles.
Defensive Backs – Cincinnati Bengals
They don’t get a ton of recognition nationally, but the top five players in the Cincinnati secondary range from excellent in safety Jessie Bates III, to very capable, in slot cornerback Mike Hilton and the boisterous Eli Apple. Free agent acquisition CB Chidobe Awuzie has played well all season and provides stability that gives the Bengals the option to mix both man and zone coverage. The cupboard isn’t bare for the Rams though, as they have the top defensive back in the game with lockdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The vocal corner hasn’t been as consistently strong this season as in some previous years, but he’s still a mega talent who can take away a receiver as well as anyone in the game. LA has gotten some nice play down the stretch from safety Nick Scott and David Long Jr., and whether or not Taylor Rapp can go at safety is something to keep an eye on. With the holes in that secondary the team signed retired safety Eric Weddle to provide some steadiness on the back end.
Special Teams – Cincinnati Bengals
The return game is solid for both teams as Chris Evans has been a good kickoff man for the Bengals, while the speedy Brandon Powell has provided a spark for the Rams on punt returns. Both punters, Kevin Huber and Johnny Hekker, can be considered reliable if not spectacular. The latter always is a threat for trick plays and throwing the football to extend positions. The kicking game is where Cincinnati really has the clear advantage as rookie fifth round pick Evan McPherson, or “Money Mac” as he’s been dubbed, has been ridiculously clutch all season. He also boasts a stronger leg than his counterpart Matt Gay, which could be a factor if the game does in fact remain tight.
Coaching – Los Angeles Rams
This isn’t the first Super Bowl that features one head coach facing off against a protégé as the Rams Sean McVay will see the Bengals Zac Taylor up close and personal as opponents. McVay has faced his fair share of criticism for often playing conservative and failing to make adjustments in games, however he’s still regarded as one of the bright young minds around the league. Zac Taylor is in high consideration for coach of the year, based upon the quick turnaround in Cincinnati. Taylor was on the hot seat just months ago as he really looked lost early on in his coaching career. Truth be told, we can’t be sure how much the Bengals turnaround is Taylor versus quarterback Joe Burrow, but there’s a good chance that the QB is a more important cog than the head coach. The two defensive coordinators will also play a big part in determining the outcome, as we’ll give a slight nod for experience to the Ram’s Raheem Morris over the very impressive Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati. We could look back and see that the coach who made the fewer mistakes, is the one hoisting the Lombardi Trophy when it’s all said and done.
2021 Offensive and Defensive Yardage Rankings
When you look at the rankings on offense and defense for these teams nothing jumps out as overly impressive either way. Keep in mind, these are basic and even somewhat old style statistics that don’t always tell the true story of how effective a team is. They’re merely to provide some context of where these teams stacked up amongst their peers during the course of the regular season. Each team has areas where they are more effective within metrics including DVOA and EPA. One thing that does stand out when looking at the chart above is that these teams are constructed similarly in how they play as their rankings are very close in all 6 of the major categories. Based simply on this look, neither team would seem to have a huge advantage stacking up against each other.
THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:
The Los Angeles Rams made some personnel and organizational decisions that let the football world know that they were approaching the season in a win-now, at any cost philosophy. The team decided that proven stars were more important than draft picks and the future, and so far so good as they’ve managed to get themselves one game away from NFL history books. You could argue that this current Ram’s roster boasts the possibility of six or seven potential Hall of Fame players when it’s all said and done. Time will tell how this team is looked back upon, and how many players end up making it to Canton could be partially determined by a win or loss in this football game. The Rams have stayed true to their identity for most of the season, and if they can bully the Bengals in the trenches, they could very easily find themselves cruising to a Super Bowl victory.
Before diving into the specific matchups, it’s worth noting that the Rams have two of the more creative minds on the offensive side of the football in head coach Sean McVay and offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell. The Bengals defense needs to be ready for a lot of potential motion and formations, and possibly some trick plays with extra time to prepare. How aggressive McVay elects to be will have a giant impact on the flow of this game. The Rams need to play loose and take some chances, and they’ll soften up the Cincinnati defense. One of the biggest one-on-one matchups that may or may not get some publicity in the game is Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth locking horns with the Bengals Trey Hendrickson. Whitworth is one of those potential Hall of Famers, and having moved on from the Bengals at a point where many believed he was too old to continue to play, you know he’s excited for this opportunity. He may not be excited to go up against Hendrickson all evening though, as the Bengals prize free agent acquisition not only led the team in sacks, but was also one of the top rated pressure producing defensive ends in the entire league. Matthew Stafford has torched the blitz, however he is human and needs time to throw the football and run the offense. Whether or not the Bengals can get to Stafford without sending extra rushers will be one of the biggest keys in how effective the Rams offense moves. The other side of the line will also be a good matchup as veteran tackle Rob Havenstein will see a lot of hometown hero Sam Hubbard rushing off of his end spot. Watch these two matchups closely in the first quarter and you’ll probably be able to make a good assumption on how many points the Rams will be able to put up on the scoreboard.
The edges in the trenches are certainly a focal point, however we can’t ignore the interior of the offensive and defensive lines, particularly in the running game. The Rams want to be able to use both misdirection and play-action passing to their benefit, and need to establish an effective running attack in order to do so. As referenced earlier, Cam Akers has returned and assumed the lead role on the ground game for Los Angeles. Akers will get some touches early on, and his early success will also be an early indicator of how close this football game will be. The Bengals have played well against the run despite the loss of DT Larry Ogunjobi who was placed on IR before the playoffs. D.J. Reader is a massive human on the interior, and B.J. Hill has stepped in and played well. Depth could be an issue though if the Rams are able to pound the ball throughout the entire contest. A player who has the potential to be a quiet game-changer is backup running back Sony Michel. While he gave his temporary starting role back to Akers, he has a deceptive burst, and is the better back in passing situations.
We may see a bit of running in Super Bowl LVI, but realistically, this is a passing league and the game that will be one and lost through the air. Matthew Stafford has looked strong throughout the postseason and his chemistry with Cooper Kupp is the best in the league. Stafford looks to Kupp often, and will target him even in tight coverage. Expect Cincinnati the bracket Kupp with a cornerback (often slot corner Mike Hilton), and safety Jessie Bates III. Kupp has arguably the highest “floor” of any player in the league so it’s pretty much a guarantee that he’ll figure out a way to get at least 7 or 8 catches for 80 or 90 yards. The key for Cincinnati is trying to lock him into statistics along those lines and not give up any home run plays to the dynamic wideout. If he ends up with a dozen catches for 180 yards, there’s a good chance the Rams are going to be pushing 40 points on the scoreboard. Assuming Kupp is Kupp, the attention turns to the ancillary players for the Rams in the receiving game. That would start with the revitalized Odell Beckham, Jr. who has been a critical piece in replacing Robert Woods opposite of Kupp. OBJ has heated up since arriving in LA and posted his first 100 yard game as a Ram in the Conference Championship game against the 49ers. The Rams need Odell Beckham, Jr. to be the elite talent that he can be, as defending the Rams passing game becomes substantially tougher with him executing at a high level. He’ll also factor in largely if the Rams are without starting tight end Tyler Higbee, who looks as though he’ll be 50-50 to play coming off of a sprained MCL. Higbee is a big target for Stafford, and backup Kendall Blanton is largely unproven, although he made a couple of big catches last week. Perhaps the player that could have the biggest variance on the game at receiver is second year wideout Van Jefferson. He’s been a boom or bust type of player all season, and if he could find a way to boom against the talented Bengals secondary, it could make the difference between a win or a loss for the Rams.
And here we are coming back to the point where things all started, with quarterback Matthew Stafford. There’s never been a question about Stafford’s ability, talent or toughness as he fought hard on some pretty bad Detroit Lion football teams. He was brought to Los Angeles for exactly this reason, to get them over the hump that they believed Jared Goff would never be able to hurdle. You can’t really criticize Stafford for not being a clutch player as he didn’t have many opportunities in Detroit, and he’s played well during this postseason. The $135 million dollar and multiple draft picks question is, can Stafford be the missing leader and talent that the Rams need to secure the Lombardi Trophy in the city of Angels?
THE CINCINNATI BENGALS ON OFFENSE:
We were very close to seeing the Cincinnati Bengals third trip to the Super Bowl be a third rematch against the San Francisco 49ers. While the Bengals won’t have an opportunity to exercise those specific demons, they’d no doubt get the monkey, that is decades of frustration and pain off of their back with a win on Super Bowl Sunday. Zac Taylor wasn’t an instant success as head man for the team after pealing away from the Sean McVay coaching tree, yet he has an opportunity to forever capture the hearts of the city of Cincinnati if he can continue this somewhat miraculous run. The Bengals have a leader on the field, and have proven they’re not scared of anyone. Is that enough to overcome a couple of potentially bad matchups once the ball is kicked off?
No matter how his teammates perform in the big game, quarterback Joe Burrow will have to carry the load for the Bengals both metaphorically and literally. The unknown heading into the contest is how much spotting help he will get from his team, and perhaps most importantly, his offensive line. To be generous, the Bengals big men upfront have been inconsistently mediocre for most of the season. If you watched the Divisional Round game against the Titans you saw a unit that was overrun and pushed around for the entire game. The group did play better against the Chiefs in the Conference Championship, however Burrow was still under pressure more than a quarterback should be during the course of a sixty minute football game. As we noted above in the Tale of the Tape, the right side specifically is a cause for concern for Cincinnati. Isaiah Prince and Hakeem Adeniji are going to have all they can handle with Von Miller and Aaron Donald coming at them. They’re not only severely behind in terms of talent, the experience and scheme of the Rams pass rush only adds to the potential trouble there. In a game where turnovers and negative plays can determine a win or a loss, this has to be the single most concerning matchup on the field for the Bengals. One thing that absolutely cannot happen would be the left side of the offensive line struggling against the likes of A’Shawn Robinson and Leonard Floyd. If left tackle and guard Jonah Williams and Quinton Spain can hold their own on that side, Cincinnati can have the ability to give some help on the right side.
The passing game isn’t the only area where the offensive line will play a big part in this game, the running game will of course also be a factor. Don’t be shocked if Zac Taylor starts the game conservatively and tries to push the issue with the ground game. The best way to get an offensive line, or a young quarterback settled in is to run the football. Whether or not the Bengals can do that effectively, is a big question mark against a Rams defense that was pretty stout during the regular season and in the playoffs. The Rams were ranked number six in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry as defensive coordinator Raheem Morris follows his Tampa style of shutting down the run first with his front seven, to allow his safeties to play deeper and in coverage. The Bengals do have a workhorse back who will at least be able to challenge the philosophy and front of the Rams with the powerful Joe Mixon. The former Oklahoma product finished third in the league in rushing and also third in touchdowns with an impressive 13 scores on the ground. He’s also capable in the passing game, and the Rams have given up some receiving yardage to backs throughout the 2021 season. Mixon is one of those guys who can have a positive impact for his team even if he isn’t necessarily killing it on the stat sheet. A game where he can get 15-20 carries and enough yards to keep the chains moving, or at least get the team into manageable second and third down situations would probably be considered a win in this contest.
Moving to the wide receivers of the Cincinnati Bengals, this is where the team will need to win their matchups and how they can win this football game. Ja’Marr Chase is going to be a perennial Pro Bowl candidate, and has the ability to completely take over games. In this game it will probably be a combination of All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey singled up on Chase, or some form of bracketed double coverage depending on the early success, or lack thereof by the Rams defense. Ramsey hasn’t traveled with the opponent’s best for a good chunk of the snaps this season, however, if Burrow is spreading the ball around, plan on Ramsey and Chase to see a lot of each other. The rookie wideout is the Bengals best big play threat, both going deep, or taking short passes and running after the catch. In order to keep the sticks moving though, it’ll be Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd that need to be on their game. Both are very good players and this is where they absolutely must win their individual matchups when they have them. As is the case on the Rams side, the Bengals are hopeful their starting tight end C.J. Uzomah will be able to overcome his MCL sprain and play in the game. The energetic TE was really playing well in the playoffs and if he’s not available, that’s a big blow for the Bengals. Expect Cincinnati to run even more three wide receiver sets than they normally do with backup Drew Sample in more as an extra blocker on passing downs.
And now for a quick look at the man of the hour, let’s take a deeper glance at former Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow. The kid from Athens, OH a couple hours east of Cincinnati has already accomplished so much and carries himself with the confidence of a ten year veteran. Normally it might be unbelievable to think that the moment won’t be big for him as he claims, but with Burrow it seems very plausible. The young QB is going to face some pressure in this game, and how well he can adjust to it without making mistakes is crucial. The Rams are a fairly heavy blitzing team normally under Morris and McVay, however you can expect them to dial it back just a bit in the Super Bowl. For starters, Burrow, like Stafford, has been lights out against the blitz. And with three dangerous receiving targets, there is no doubt the Rams would like some extra help in coverage. All of this comes back to how well they can beat the Bengals offensive line with four rushers, in case you forgot what we mentioned the overall key to this game is. The single most important thing that Burrow needs to remember in this game is that a punt is not the end of the world. Interceptions and fumbles could cause this game to get out of hand, so ball security and not losing the turnover battle are essential for Cincinnati.
KEY STATS: – The Rams are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games
– Joe Burrow and the Bengals are an undefeated straight up 6-0 when an underdog of more than 3 points
PUBLIC MONEY: – Los Angeles Rams – 59%
THE SKINNY:
There’s probably way more information than needed in trying to handicap what’s going to happen in this game. The truth is, this Super Bowl seems like it’s going to go one of two ways. Either the Bengals continue to shock the world and come away with a completely unforeseen Super Bowl win when the season began, or the Rams completely dominate this game at the line of scrimmage and win in massive blowout fashion. If you’re a skilled live bettor, you may even elect to wait to see how a series or two goes before placing your wagers. Anytime you’re banking on an underdog who has a clear disadvantage as we’ve pointed out, you run the risk of not only being wrong, but also being embarrassed. A one point betting loss is no different than a 35 point betting loss so we’re going to take a swing for the fences and go against the grain with the Cincinnati Bengals. The public has hammered the Rams from the get-go, and even early sharp money seems to be favoring the “home” road team of Los Angeles. The sportsbooks haven’t really pivoted much on the side, so we’ll fade the public and take our chances. Unfortunately, it’s too late to feel good about betting the under as the best numbers are long gone and unlikely to return. We have this game in the mid-40’s for a total. With the past two rounds of the playoffs all essentially being walk-off down to the wire contests, we’re hoping we can get one more close one and finish the 2021-22 season off with a bang, and some winners.
BetCrushers Lean: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5
Los Angeles Rams 24, Cincinnati Bengals 20
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
Despite the fact that the Super Bowl is the most watched and heavily wagered on sporting event on earth, it’s very difficult to either find a valuable edge, or accrue a lot of closing line value. Because the sportsbooks are so heavily invested, they’re completely focused on making sure they have advantages over bettors. While many sports bettors love to go big in the game’s final contest of the season, the BetCrushers will be wagering moderately with most of our plays on Super Bowl Sunday. We’ve put together another nice season on noted record, and there’s no reason, including the Super Bowl that would justify potentially giving our hard earnings back to the casino. We’ve done as much studying and prep work as we can, and here’s what we’re settling on. A moneyline sprinkle of the Cincinnati Bengals to win outright, with the official play of taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals. We’re adding in a first quarter under in anticipation of each team starting a little conservatively. Best of luck and enjoy all of your Super Bowl festivities!
