Preview:
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are meeting in New Orleans for the second time in three seasons with the NFL championship on the line in Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs enter has a small favorite in search of a never seen before Super Bowl three-peat. The Eagles are on a strong run as well and boast the top roster in the league. Can the legendary coach/quarterback combo take down a team with very little weakness? With one final football game of the season, there’s one more opportunity to place some wagers, and hopefully come away with some season-ending winnings.
The spread for Super Bowl LIX opened with the Chiefs as a 1.5 point favorite at most books with an over/under set at 47.5 points. There hasn’t been a ton of line movement early, although that could change as some larger wagers come in closer to gameday. With the emergence of large gambling entities across the world, there are no shortage of other bets to place if you don’t want to play the game against the spread. All signs point to what could be a really exciting Super Bowl, as pundits are largely divided on who will come away as the champion.
Super Bowl LIX
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (15-5) ATS(10-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-7) ATS(13-7)
Sunday February 9th, 2025
6:30pm
FOX
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
From the standpoint of the rosters for the Eagles and Chiefs, there’s a pretty clear edge in favor of Philadelphia. However, the Chiefs have some really important advantages as well, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes. A big question is whether or not an intangible, such as coaching or special teams could be a difference-maker in determining the winner?
Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs
Even in what would be considered a down year for Patrick Mahomes, there isn’t another QB who would get the nod above him in the Super Bowl spotlight. Not only has Mahomes been there and done that in terms of the Super Bowl, but he’s also had his best stretch of games by far over his last four played. He’s peaking at the right time, and with extra time to prepare, he should be dialed in and poised for another strong performance. Jalen Hurts is no slouch, despite some of the criticism he takes, but he certainly won’t be mistaken for Mahomes in the quarterback hierarchy in the NFL. You don’t get to the Super Bowl with poor quarterback play, but the Chiefs have the QB advantage over anyone in the playoffs.
Running Backs – Philadelphia Eagles
When your starting running back has rushing props that sit in the 120+ yard range, you know you’re a machine at the position. Saquon Barkley made a legitimate case for MVP at the RB position this season with what he’s been able to accomplish behind the Eagles offensive line. All respect to Derrick Henry, but Barkley is the best RB in the game right now, and gives the Eagles a huge advantage at the position. The Chiefs are patching together an injured Isiah Pacheco, and re-tread Kareem Hunt, the latter has been seeing the majority of the carries. The Chiefs will run hard, but lack the explosiveness of Barkley and the Eagles running game. One note to watch, Kenneth Gainwell, the Eagles backup running back is questionable for the game. That shouldn’t have too much impact, as Barkley is going to go as much as he can, but it’s worth noting at the least.
Wide Receivers – Philadelphia Eagles
The Chiefs have made strides in improving this room since earlier in the season, and if Rashee Rice were playing, this would be pretty close. However, without Rice in the lineup, the Chiefs have to spread it around to aging players like DeAndre Hopkins and Juju Smith-Schuster, and hope their quicker tandem of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy can make plays. They certainly have enough to help Mahomes, but the Eagles win this battle behind the strength of their 1-2 punch of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. The team was able to get Brown going a bit in the NFC Championship game, and he is the most talented receiver on the field. Smith is the second most talented, and if the Chiefs try to lock in on Brown, Smith can absolutely do damage. The Chiefs have slightly better depth, but the Eagles have the studs.
Tight Ends – Kansas City Chiefs
It’s not as though the Eagles don’t utilize a very good tight end, with Dallas Goedert being a top target for Jalen Hurts. With that being said, this is the position where the Chiefs own the advantage over most teams and players in the league. Travis Kelce may not be the player he was a few years ago, but we’ve seen him elevate his play time and time again in the playoffs. It’s worth nothing that Noah Gray of the Chiefs and Grant Calcaterra of the Eagles both will have some form of impact on the game. The matchup itself may favor Goedert here, as the Chiefs have been notoriously bad covering opposing tight ends, but the overall positional edge goes to Kansas City and Kelce.
Offensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles needed this week off to allow a couple of their big guys to get healthy, particularly center Cam Jurgens and left guard Landon Dickerson. They should be good to go for the big game, and this gives them the edge at the position group as it does essentially every weekend. The Eagles starting five is massive, strong, and play well collectively. They’re strong in both run-blocking and pass-blocking. The Chiefs have played well since moving Joe Thuney to left tackle, and are strong up the middle with center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith. Jawaan Taylor is always a bit of a wild card at the right tackle spot as he is the most penalized player in the league, and that’s with getting away with a lot already. The Chiefs have a top 10 offensive line in the league, maybe even higher, but the Eagles are still holding on to the top spot.
Defensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles
The defensive lines of these teams are both extremely talented, and they grade out really closely position by position. Part of this grading may depend on if you have Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis as a linebacker or defensive end. For the purpose of this, we’ve got him as an end rusher, which gives the Chiefs a lot with All-Pro talent Chris Jones in the middle. The rest of the Kansas City line is a rotation of veteran players who simply know how to make plays and do their job. Whether that’s Tershawn Wharton, Charles Omenihu, Mike Danna or Derrick Nnadi, this group is physical and disciplined. The Eagles play more of a three man line, and they don’t have the depth the Chiefs have, especially without Brandon Graham, who was lost for the season. They don’t rotate much, and let their big guys play a lot of snaps. We’ve got their top three edging out the Chiefs slightly, led by Jalen Carter in the middle. With Jordan Davis next to him, the Eagles clamp down opposing runners, and Milton Williams has been a solid contributor as well. Like Karlaftis, the Eagles will use Nolan Smith, Bryce Huff and Josh Sweatt as edge rushers, and we’ll count them as linemen here, although they’re more like outside linebackers. That trio has played well down the stretch and give the Eagles a solid pass rush on passing downs.
Linebackers – Philadelphia Eagles
Linebacker is probably the next tightest position battle between these two teams. We’re giving the Eagles a slight win in this column as well, mainly because of the ridiculously impactful play of free agent linebacker Zack Baun. He’s an absolute terror and just always seems to be around the ball and making plays. He’s been so good, that the Eagles defense really hasn’t skipped much of a beat despite losing middle linebacker Nakobe Dean. Oren Burks brings a veteran presence here, and as long as Baun is on the field, this group can thrive. The Chiefs have a pair of underrated players in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill, and even Leo Chanel has made some big plays this year. They’re a really good group, but we’ll give Baun and the Eagles rushers the ever so slight W.
Defensive Backs – Philadelphia Eagles
You don’t get to the Super Bowl with having bad players, and again the Chiefs are very good in the secondary. Trent McDuffie is a top five cornerback in the league, and Jaylen Watson returning opposite of him give Kansas City a great foundation. Bryan Cook and Justin Reid are both quality starting safeties in the league as well. The retooled Eagles secondary is just downright nasty. Rookie Quinyon Mitchell is already pushing for top five status, and Darius Slay looked a lot more like himself this year, after a disappointing 2023 season. Fellow rookie Cooper DeJean has been great in the slot, and they even have veteran depth with guys like Avante Maddox and Sydney Brown. Reed Blankenship is a steady force at safety, and CJ Gardner-Johnson is the difference-maker on the back end. His toughness and ability to track the football round out this talented group. Simple breakdown here is, Kansas City Chiefs, B+, Philadelphia Eagles, A.
Special Teams – Kansas City Chiefs
One thing that we’ve learned over the span of 58 Super Bowls is how impactful special teams can be in winning or losing the game. You can look at nearly a third of the outcomes of these games and directly correlate special teams to the final result. Measuring who has the advantage can sometimes be a little trickier as it usually requires a combination of some metrics, as well as a bit of the “eye-test”. We’re going to give a very slight edge to the Chiefs here mainly because Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has been so inconsistent with missing kicks this season. Harrison Butker has looked a little shaky coming back from injury, but between the two we’d have to give the edge to Butker. The return games, punting and coverage each have been pretty good, with a few issues throughout the year, so no real edge there.
Coaching – Kansas City Chiefs
This is actually a pretty interesting comparison here, mainly because you have two pretty iconic defensive coordinators facing off in Steve Spagnuolo for the Chiefs and Vic Fangio for the Eagles. They both should be as prepared as you can be against each other, and in a game where offenses will be talked about, it could be that the better defense wins the ballgame. As far as the offensive play-calling goes, and certainly the head coach position, the Chiefs have a massive advantage over the Eagles here. The Chiefs win because of Andy Reid, the Eagles win despite Nick Sirianni. In what could be a close football game, coaching will be important.
2022 Rankings Comparison
In studying pure metrics, these teams seem to balance out pretty evenly between them. The Chiefs, somewhat surprisingly to many, were not an offensive juggernaut for most of the season though. Their last four games have been their best, so they seem to be hitting their stride. As we pointed out above, that doesn’t really hold up when you dive a little deeper at each position. Both teams rank high defensively, with the Eagles ranked higher on the offensive side of the ball. We’ll take a closer look at the matchups below:
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
Talk of the demise of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense was a little premature, as this unit is now rolling at the right time. The quiet move that really set the Chiefs up for success was a gamble that has paid off on the offensive line. Moving Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has solidified Patrick Mahomes blind side, and shored up what was a weakness early in the season. On both sides of the ball, the trenches are going to be an all out battle, as the Chiefs will face pressure all game from the Eagles front. The Chiefs interior line featuring center Creed Humphrey and guard Trey Smith will be tangling with Eagles star defensive tackle Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis all night long. The Eagles will find some wins with their front four, but the Chiefs should be able to at least keep them from completely wrecking the game. The mobility of Patrick Mahomes, which he puts on display when the games matter should keep him from finding himself on the ground too much. The player always worth watching is right tackle Jawaan Taylor. If the refs are letting the players play, Taylor should be fine. If they get flag happy early, Taylor could be in for a long day with his early jumps and aggressive blocking, which many feel is holding.
Where the Chiefs will struggle offensively is trying to stay balanced running the football. Isiah Pacheco has been unable to get going since returning from his early season leg injury, meaning Kareem Hunt has had to shoulder the load in the backfield. Hunt’s efficiency largely relies on running through people and breaking tackles, something that the Eagles defense is built to not allow. The Chiefs key to victory won’t be running the football, but they also don’t want to be fully one-dimensional. If Kansas City is unable to run, look to see more of Samaje Perine, and the team to switch gears to a short passing game. No one has been able to use quick passes as an extension of the running game. You need to just look at the Chiefs last game against the Bills to see how they supplemented their running game with quick screens and slants. The best player that most casual fans won’t know about watching this game is Eagles linebacker Zack Baun. He’s a do-it-all three down linebacker who can support in the run game, rush the passer, and cover receivers and tight ends. Baun could be used as a spy on Mahomes, or to blanket Travis Kelce. We mentioned Jawaan Taylor above, it’s edge rushers Josh Sweatt and Nolan Smith who will be working on him off of the edges.
The Chiefs won’t have it easy when they throw it either, as the Eagles secondary and pass rush can wreak havoc. The good news for KC is the Eagles were vulnerable when they played the better quarterbacks on their schedule. Mahomes can spread the ball around, which is actually a really important thing in this football game. He’s going to have to make quick decisions to find the open receiver, or get rid of the football. After a quiet AFC Championship game, Travis Kelce could be primed for a lot more action, particularly with those short passes we mentioned. Depending on the script of the game, we’ll have to see if we get more of Juju Smith-Schuster, or Marquise Brown. Expect the Eagles to play man-to-man early, and adjust if Mahomes is thriving, or using his legs. The Eagles defense has been aggressive all season, but the Chiefs have taken great care of the football in the second half of the season. Can Philly generate some game-changing plays, or will the Chiefs continue their disciplined play?
THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:
It’s only fitting when starting a Philadelphia Eagles breakdown to begin with their offensive line. The group of Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, Mekhi Becton and Lane Johnson is as good as you’ll find in recent memory in the league. Unlike the Eagles defensive line, the Chiefs will rotate linemen through to stay fresh and attempt to find some wins against this group. Chris Jones is of course the key in the middle. The Eagles tackles have been great in pass protection, so it’s hard to expect a lot from edge rusher George Karlaftis. Jones likes to move around the line and often tries to find a weak link on the opposing team. The truth is, there really isn’t a weak link on that Eagles offensive line. Jones will draw plenty of double teams in this game, so someone else on the Chiefs has to step up to effect Jalen Hurts. That could be a player like Charles Omenihu, or possibly Mike Danna. The Chiefs line has to eat up the blockers of the Eagles to allow their linebackers to make plays.
Early in the season the Chiefs rush defense was near the top of the league. They’ve softened a bit as the season has gone on, but they’re still a pretty good unit overall. The problem is, pretty good just isn’t good enough when facing Saquon Barkley behind the previously touted offensive line. Barkley is running as well as any player we’ve ever seen and it’s no secret the Eagles game plan will focus on getting him the ball early and often. It’s almost impossible to shut down Barkley, so a victory for the Chiefs would be slowing him down and avoiding explosive plays. If Barkley finishes with 20 carries and 100 yards, the Chiefs will absolutely take that. What they cannot have is a 12 carry for 150 yard start where he’s completely loosened up the defense. Look for safety Justin Reid to spend a lot of time in the box in an effort to force the Eagles to throw the ball. Other than the quarterbacks and Barkley, two of the most important players on the field will be Chiefs linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. They’re the duo that needs to wrap up Barkley and keep him from getting into and through the secondary.
Throwing the football is where the Eagles have to be extremely careful. They’ve done a good job limiting what they ask of quarterback Jalen Hurts to avoid big mistakes. That has to be the plan yet again, as the Eagles cannot afford to turn the ball over. Hurts played great in the first Super Bowl meeting with the Chiefs, but it was his costly fumble that ultimately swung the game in the favor of KC. Depending on the early success of Saquon Barkley, we’ll see how the Chiefs opt to defend A.J. Brown and the Eagles receivers. Getting starting cornerback Jaylen Watson back gives them some flexibility on how they defend. As we’ve watched his individual player prop of yardage balloon, it’s apparent Dallas Goedert could play a pivotal role in the passing game. With the Chiefs committed to halting Barkley and the running game, and Trent McDuffie matched up with either Brown or Devonta Smith, Goedert could find a lot of open room running routes. In a one-game playoff, this is also a spot where you can expect to see Hurts run with the football. The Chiefs have faced the top running quarterbacks in the league, but they haven’t done great at stopping them. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to blitz, but that can result is some busted runs if the rush can’t get Hurts on the ground. This Eagles offense can hurt you in literally every single way. Their key is simple, take care of the football and get the ball in the playmakers hands.
KEY STATS: – The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Eagles have won 8 games straight up vs. AFC opponents
– The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
– The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Eagles
– The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Eagles
THE SKINNY:
As always with a Super Bowl, there’s either way more information than you need, or not nearly enough analytics to handicap what’s going to happen in this game. If there is a such thing as a “sharp” side in this game, it probably rests with the Kansas City Chiefs. Realistically, bettors seem to be fairly split on this contest, whether that’s a public bettor or sharp bettor. This is the toughest Super Bowl we’ve broken down in quite a while for the simple fact of trusting what we handicap, versus what our gut is telling us. The Philadelphia Eagles are the better football team from top to bottom. In fact, this seems like it should be a double digit win for Philly when you just look at the matchups and the ways these teams are playing. It’s crazy to go against what should happen here, which is a dominating Eagles performance, but we simply have to. To be the man you have to beat the man, and until a team can beat this Chiefs team, it feels foolish not to back them. Andy Reid will have his team prepared, and Patrick Mahomes has looked like, well, Patrick Mahomes over his last four performances. We’re not on the bandwagon of the league being rigged, but there is also no debating the fact the Chiefs could likely benefit from any marginal calls in the game as well. Kansas City plays all of their games close, as their one-score record is widely documented. Unless the Eagles just get up big early, this should stay to form. Who do you trust with the game on the line? Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes and some home-cookin? Or Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts? The Eagles should win this game, we’re just not counting on them doing that.
BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -1
Kansas City Chiefs 29, Philadelphia Eagles 26
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
Despite the fact that the Super Bowl is the most watched and heavily wagered on sporting event on earth, it’s very difficult to either find a valuable edge, or accrue a lot of closing line value. Because the sportsbooks are so heavily invested, they’re completely focused on making sure they have advantages over bettors. While many sports bettors love to go big in the game’s final contest of the season, the BetCrushers will be wagering moderately with most of our plays on Super Bowl Sunday. We’ve done as much studying and prep work as we can, and here’s what we’re settling on. (Note – We want to give credit to Adam Burke at VSIN for the player prop on Chamarri Conner, a bet we fell in love with.)
