Some things don’t go according to plan. Yesterday’s 1-3 (-1.95 units) result was a good example, bringing the season net down to -1.03 units. Yet again, the Oakland A’s were a bright spot on my betting card. A sloppy start for the A’s transitioned over to the Sox, who gave Oakland a huge gift by whiffing on a long fly ball to plate 2 and grant them a lead that the stellar bullpen did not relinquish.
On the other hand, the Mets offense was a no-show (apparently, this is a well researched phenomenon for them at Citi Field) and could not get to the Nationals tired bullpen early enough. Strasburg gave Washington what they needed, which was a stellar 6-2/3 innings of shutout baseball. The Cubs and Angels were complete failures yesterday, underpinning the idea that momentum is a mental element that can lift over-performing teams (e.g. the Texas Rangers) and repress an underperforming team (e.g. Chicago Cubs).
All losses were plus-money wagers, so no excessive juice dragged down the sole +105 winner. Not the result I wanted but damage was limited considering the losses were essentially blowouts. Friday is here, so let’s play ball with some home teams…
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
We return to the scene of last night’s crime, which was the Chicago Cubs +105 ticket going up in smoke. In the rear view mirror, that was clearly the wrong side. Tonight, the Braves set their sights on NL East foe Miami. Pablo Lopez, a good ground ball pitcher using a sinker and changeup combination, takes the mound for the Marlins. Miami held their own at home, though now they leave their friendly confines and face a stiff test.
Atlanta throws Kevin Gausman to face a weak Miami lineup, likely meaning he should soak up at least 6 quality innings of work. He is a solid rotation man who pitches to contact. If he can avoid serving up the long ball, Gausman should have a very good night for the Braves. This Atlanta lineup is solid and needs to make good contact to avoid easy ground ball outs and double plays agains Lopez.
WAGER: Braves RL +125
Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Minnesota visits the Phillies after swinging some hot bats against their AL Central foes. They look to keep momentum as a division leader against another division leader in the NL. Odorizzi is a big swing-and-miss guy who can frustrate opposing hitters. On the other hand, he has been known to hand out too many free passes and give up big fly balls. Is he facing the type of offense that can exploit these flaws?
Despite a disappointing loss to the Nationals on Wednesday, the Phils have had a very successful start to the season. They put Nick Pivetta on the mound, who is a guy similar in nature to Odorizzi. He’s got a great swinging strike rate and mistakes often lead to homers at Citizens Bank Park. Defense is always a liability with the Phillies, though their bats often dig their way out of those holes. Philly has scored 8 runs in 4 of their last 5 games and all of their wins have been by 2 or more runs.
WAGER: Phillies RL +140
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
Rookie Nick Margevicius leads the Padres into St. Louis for a late-afternoon face-off after a weather postponement yesterday. He could struggle against an above-average Cardinals lineup who should be happy to come home for their season opener. The Padres’ sluggish offense faces a young Jack Flaherty and his filthy slider, though he needs to control his walks to avoid giving up a big inning. The Cardinals’ track record of playing close games this season is a slight concern for a run line play, but these boys are back home and face a team with a little less punch than the NL Central foes that they just visited.
