Corners, grooves, and grip. We’ve got it all in the BetCrushers.com final handicapping article for the NASCAR Cup Series Bristol Night Race. 500 laps on a Saturday night in The Last Great Colosseum? Count us in.

Track officials applied the PJ1 traction compound (i.e. sticky stuff) on the low groove going into all four corners of the half-mile oval. Then they pressure washed the upper two grooves to get all the rubber off and reduce traction there. Naturally, the drivers tested the upper lines Friday morning and later reapplied some rubber from the late-run tires. No word whether they’ll be back out there with the washer to get rid of everything left behind from last night’s Xfinity race.

Friday’s practice runs were all about testing lines and seeing what the drivers could get away with. You saw guys missing the proper entry into the traction compound and leaking up the track, losing precious lap time during the first practice. In the second session, drivers made the top lines competitive and legitimized a multi-groove race (regardless of whether they pressure wash the track again or not). Some teams later noted that the PJ1 wasn’t as sticky as they expected, another reason why this likely won’t be a predominantly single-file race.

Hamlin on the Pole

Denny Hamlin’s JGR Toyota was very fast on Friday. Hell, the #11 car has been fast for about 6 weeks now. He had the fastest ride in the early practice run but didn’t show us much in the afternoon session. We had a hunch that Denny was “The Man With the Plan” in Wednesday’s race preview; him nabbing the pole does not hurt our early play.

When it comes to racing Bristol in August, Denny Hamlin is the guy to look at. Although he finished a disappointing 14th place in the 2018 night race, he was 3rd in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Look at his matchup with Brad Keselowski, who hasn’t found the Top 15 here since 2015. Hamlin is running better overall since Kentucky and has more consistent results at the front of the pack in the Bristol night race. Hamlin (-115) over Keselowski is a pre-qualification matchup play this week.

Now that the Xfinity race is over, enough books have the head-to-head matchups back on the board. This is still an even matchup as of early Saturday morning and is very playable at that price. In fact, we’re doubling down on Denny Hamlin by playing him over Ryan Blaney as a -115 pick ’em. Hamlin offers more consistency at Bristol while generally being in top form.

Larson vs. Truex, Jr.

Kyle Larson will share the front row with Hamlin after a strong day in the #42 Chevy. We didn’t pull the trigger early on his matchup with Martin Truex, Jr., who qualified in 3rd right behind Kyle. Both of these guys have been running well on the Cup circuit, though we gave Larson an edge in Wednesday’s preview for his recent Bristol Night Race performances.

Larson and Truex, Jr. worked their cars well in practice and ran hard in qualification. Martin has turned a Top-10 starting position into a Top-10 finish only once (April 2017). On the flip side, Kyle converted four straight Top-10 starts into Top-10 finishes in 2017 & 2018. Despite Truex, Jr. scoring the 3rd starting position, the matchup price for Larson increased to -130. One could argue there’s not much meat left on the bone, but we’re still backing him at -130.

What to Do With Kurt?

Our guy, Kurt Busch, rounds out the second row. We secretly hoped that his mediocre practice lap times would carry through to the qualifying run. Not that The BetCrushers Team wants to fade him, but we were looking for a better price on his T10 wager. A mid-20s starting position could have been a good thing…

The interesting thing about Kurt at Bristol is that he’s made significant moves when qualifying 25th or lower. This has happened three times since 2015: 26th in 2015, 25th in 2017, and 27th in 2019. Kurt finished 3rd, 5th, and 2nd in those races. If Kurt qualifies poorly on Friday, consider taking a bite on a Top 10 play with a good plus-money price.

As of this article’s publishing, our accounts did not have the Top 10 odds posted. We’re willing to play Kurt for anything -110 or better once it is up. However, don’t be anxious and overpay. Despite how strong he’s been at Bristol over his last four runnings, Kurt has had his share of setbacks here like most drivers.

If searching for value on Kurt elsewhere, look at his matchup with Chase Elliott. Chase’s 6th place qualification run and great second practice session leap-frogged him as the favorite in the matchup with Busch. Elliott appears to be rebounding from a mid-summer slump and could very well translate that momentum into a strong finish tonight. We know Chase runs a mean qualification lap, though he can still fall prey to the perils of Bristol. We’re backing the defending Night Race Champ in a value play of +135 over Chase Elliott.

The BetCrushers Bristol Night Race Betting Card

• Denny Hamlin (-115) over Brad Keselowski
• Erik Jones (+100) over Ryan Blaney
• Denny Hamlin (-115) over Ryan Blaney
• Kyle Larson (-130) over Martin Truex, Jr.
• Kurt Busch (+135) over Chase Elliott