NASCAR’s return has been nothing short of electric. Darlington’s first race was action-packed and the mid-week encore was as tense as it gets, with rain was looming. Then Kyle Busch clipped Chase Elliott and sent him spinning into the wall. Sunday’s thrilling Coca-Cola 600 was a fitting Memorial Day weekend celebration as Brad Keselowski held off Jimmie Johnson for a big win. Catch your breath, because it’s time to get right back behind the wheel. NASCAR is running it back at Charlotte Wednesday night!
Charlotte, Take One
Wednesday’s 205-lap, 310.6-mile Alscor 500 will feel like a sprint after the Coca-Cola 600. It’s essentially half the race, similar to last week’s two-race format at Darlington. The 600 played out about how one would expect: conservative racing in the first 300 miles with long green flag runs. Alex Bowman looked exceptionally fast during his 164-lap tenure as race leader. All the while, Martin Truex, Jr. lurked a few seconds behind in 2nd place. Someone turned up the heat before the end of Stage Two, when Truex used lapped traffic to make a textbook pass for the lead.
Decisions, Decisions
Smaller strategy decisions within the race earned Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski each time as race leader. Chase Elliott took over the lead in lap 363 and from that point on made an unimpeded run to the checkered flag. Then William Byron, who was running in the Top 10, spun out and triggered a caution that set up overtime. Usually it’s an also-ran that pulls off the late-race “jobber caution”, but not on Sunday. A potential Top 10 finisher took the dive this time. This set up a strategic decision for teams: to pit for fresh tires or stay on the track. After nearly 600 miles, the ensuing two-lap sprint would crown the 2020 Coca-Cola 600 champion.
So who zigged and who zagged? Crew Chiefs Alan Gustafson and James Small brought in Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr., contrary to the advice of Fox Sports commentators, who thought the top cars should maintain position by staying out. But as race leader, the #9 calls the shot and most others likely wait to take his cue. Jimmie Johnson gave a pump fake that may (?) have committed MTJ to the pits. Truex is operating alongside a fresh Crew Chief this season with Small, who is arguably a downgrade from Cole Pearn. Regardless of Small’s longer-term upside potential, that was a big decision to make with only a few Cup races under his belt.
A Las Vegas Flashback
Consider the call Ryan Blaney’s team made at Las Vegas in February. A lot has happened since then, but it should be easy to remember that the move arguably cost Blaney the win. No real surprise then that Elliott suffered the same fate despite his timely rally that fell just short. Two disappointing finishes in a row aren’t great, but I also wouldn’t call it a habit. You have to respect Chase’s drive. If not for Kyle Busch at the end of Wednesday’s Darlington race, the #9 team would be on a five-race Top 10 run. A Coca-Cola 600 win would have been the sweetest way to repay Busch, but Elliott still handled the situation well by racing his ass off cleanly in the very next race.
The Highs and Lows of Our Betting Card
Let’s start at the top with Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s 13th starting position turned into dead last even before the pace car left the asphalt. He dumped ballast on the track, forcing him to the pits as the green flag waved. By the time the #11 car got up to speed, he was eight laps down. Chalk up the Hamlin/Logano matchup as a loss to the anger of my wife, who says it was completely rigged. (The NASCAR conspiracy theory gene runs strong on her maternal side.) Who leaves a bolt loose, right? The fallout from that fail will echo into suspensions for Team Denny.
“Loss or separation of added ballast from the vehicle will result in a four-race suspension of the crew chief, car chief, and head engineer.”
NASCAR.com, May 24, 2020
Speaking of car troubles, Jimmie Johnson failed a post-race inspection and was stripped of his 2nd place finish. It appears that something was broken on the #48 Camaro. This caused a failed inspection and his official finish was changed to 40th (dead last). Wagers involving Jimmie are graded according to the rules of the sportsbook they were made – fortunately, our Johnson/Blaney matchup was graded a win. Regardless, respect is due to Ryan Blaney for working his way into contention by cranking up the aggressiveness in his Ford Mustang.
MTJ was a force to be reckoned with all night – right up until it counted. Truex’s late pit stop was poorly executed, leaving his markedly better #19 Camry one position behind Kevin Harvick after dominating him for all but the final two laps. Kurt Busch, on the other hand, persisted after losing the lead he held for the first 54 laps. He went a lap down late due to a loose wheel but got back on the lead lap and pushed his way into 8th at the finish line. That was good enough to cash the Top 10 wager. All told, we survive the Coca-Cola 600 with a 2-2 record and minimal damage. I cannot complain considering Hamlin’s one-in-a-million ballast drop essentially put us down a wager from the get-go.
How We’re Playing Take Two
Just like last week, we don’t see a ton of “value” relative to our initial handicapping approaches for the Coca-Cola 600. My first inclination is to look at Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson, whose official finishing positions have significant caveats. But with the inverted field for Wednesday and no qualifying, that’s a strong pass. Sunday’s bottom 20 finishers start in the order they finished in. NASCAR will invert the top 20 finishers to form the first ten rows. Hamlin and Johnson will likely need too many precious laps in a short race to reach the Top 20, plus you have suspended team members for the #11 Joe Gibbs Toyota.
The invert especially benefits William Byron and Alex Bowman, who will line up in the front row. The Chevrolets of Byron and Bowman were strong on Sunday and they get a big advantage with starting position. And then we get to see the big guns like Busch, Harvick, Truex, and Elliott make their way up through the pack as the 205 laps unfold. The traction compound was activated later in the 600, producing some good dogfights between the leaders. With a combination of confidence and strategy adjustments to tackle a much shorter format, I expect another round of must-see battles.
Early Movement
Alex Bowman takes Kevin Harvick’s place in the opening odds logjam alongside Kyle, Chase, and MTJ who were there for the 600’s open. Two drivers surprise me with their high board positions after Sunday. As I noted above, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson are playing with significant disadvantages. Yet they opened at 12/1, which is shorter than the +1320 and +1540 that Hamlin and Johnson opened at for the Coca-Cola 600, respectively. Another interesting note is that Ryan Blaney and William Byron sit below them despite quality efforts of their own on Sunday. Plus they don’t have baggage coming into this race.
Movement since the open has squeezed Truex, Elliott, and Kyle away from the pack. Kyle’s stock may have risen from Monday night’s Xfinity race win, though this win was hardly a surprise as he went off as the odds-on favorite. 5Dimes has since pushed down the slug of drivers in the 10/1 to 20/1 range. Hamlin and Johnson are down to 14/1, but still above guys like Blaney and Byron.
Jimmie Johnson -115 vs. Denny Hamlin
After laying out all of the negatives against these two, you may ask why I’m featuring them in a matchup bet. My angle is to weigh out whose set of negatives are worse. First, we have no clear read on Denny Hamlin’s #11 car in race conditions at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He jumped on the track eight laps behind and was never a factor. We do know Hamlin will be without Crew Chief Chris Gabehart, Car Chief Brandon Griffeth, and Engineer Scott Simmons for this race and three more following it. Although there are ways to get around not having the Crew Chief on site leading up to the race, not having this experienced strategic role on race day is tough. And this is not just a Crew Chief suspension, it’s essentially the loss of of the #11 team’s brain trust.
Jimmie Johnson, though, was strong on Sunday. He qualified 2nd and finished there, but will start from the rear on Wednesday. This puts Johnson at an 11-position starting disadvantage to Hamlin. However, of the ten drivers separating them, only Clint Bowyer should be a challenge to pass. Jimmie found himself in a similar scenario after wrecking at Darlington last Sunday. He started the follow-up race in 37th and battled his way to 8th in the rain-shortened encore. Don’t overlook the fact that Hamlin made his way from a start in 16th to get the victory that same night. In my opinion, the starting position disadvantage pales in comparison to the suspensions slapped on the Hamlin team. Can they effectively orchestrate pre-race and in-race adjustments? This is a big deal. We are backing Jimmie Johnson at a -115 pick ’em to gain enough position to beat the shorthanded Denny Hamlin.
Options for Kurt Busch
Another race, another nod to Kurt Busch. Go figure, eh? Kurt has been very reliable in the spots I back him in, so there’s admittedly an inherent bias towards considering him for each upcoming race. He’s never a shoe-in to make it onto our betting card, but you better believe I always look for an advantageous situation involving Kurt. Betting options are still developing at this point in the pre-race cycle, but here are three that I’ve been debating heavily.
Top 10 Finish -122
This is as straightforward as it gets, and is how we played Busch in the Coca-Cola 600. His 7th place finish (8th, if you disregard Johnson’s DQ) was a classic veteran effort. Stay out of trouble, rebound from a late loose wheel, and get your nose in there for the finish. Sunday’s Top 10 wager at +100 (+110 available on race day) was dicey until the final sequence opened the window for him.
I believe the #1 team has a 6th through 13th place car for Wednesday’s race. At the same time, there is a strong field poised for Top 10 finishes. At least that’s what the market is saying. My main concern is laying -122 here, even though my previous handicap put him at a 60% chance to convert. He cashed that bet, and now 22-32 cents is squeezed out of the line. This is an understandable reaction to Busch’s qualifying speed and finish at the 600, albeit one that makes this play less appetizing.
Group D +170
- Kurt Busch +170
- Tyler Reddick +275
- Matt Kenseth +285
- Matt DiBenedetto +300
+170 is a sweet return in a group featuring two drivers that finished no better than 17th Sunday, right? If Busch is good enough to have better than a coin flip chance to finish Top 10, backing him in this group to return +170 may be a good extension of the risk-reward profile. I have no issue with pitting Kurt up against Kenseth and DiBenedetto, but Reddick is a driver that gives me pause for concern.
Cup Series rookie Tyler Reddick is rounding into form since NASCAR’s return over a week ago. He finished 7th at Darlington, one of the circuit’s toughest tracks, from a 29th starting position. Reddick improved on his starting spot slightly by finishing 13th in the encore, then basically held his ground Sunday in the Coca-Cola 600 endurance test. His two blemishes on the 2020 season – 28th at Daytona and 33rd at Phoenix – resulted from accidents.
+110 vs. William Byron
First off, I must give @NASCARstyleodds his due for pointing out this Busch-Byron matchup. We bounce ideas off of one another from time to time, and my dilemma on how best to play Kurt Busch is the most recent example. Both of us agreed that Kurt is worth another play in the Charlotte encore. He pointed out the price swing that the invert created for this matchup. If Jimmie Johnson wouldn’t have been disqualified, Busch would start 12th with William Byron 21st. Instead, Busch starts 13th and Byron 1st. This flip-flop in starting position likely turned this bet into a favorable one with the price boost. I like the reward in a race in which I handicap these two drivers converging on a common point around 10th. Combine Kurt’s veteran savvy with the plus-money payout and this appears to be a coin flip proposition shaded towards Busch.
This subset of handicapping decisions has been a serious challenge. I considered two full wagers or a chopping a betting unit up into two halves to select two options. Wednesday’s sprint is not a race that I want to overextend into. In other words, it is much tougher to find value after Sunday’s race revealed many of the “unknowns”. Two minds are better than one in handicapping this situation, so I’m backing Kurt Busch (+110) in his matchup with William Byron. A price change in the Top 10 market could sway my opinion to double-dip, but my gut tells me that less is more in this race.
Rapid Fire Racing!
Wednesday’s sprint should be another good one after the epic 2020 Coca-Cola 600. But wait, there’s more! The Cup Series circuit heads to Thunder Valley on Sunday for a classic short-track clash. Be sure to follow us on Twitter, visit our NASCAR handicapping page, or subscribe for email alerts!
