The NASCAR Playoffs move further south this week to one of the most unpredictable tracks on the Cup Series circuit, the Charlotte Roval. It’s a road course and an oval jammed together, exactly like how a spork is both a spoon and a fork. Bottom line: the Roval debuted in 2018, making Sunday’s running only the second time these drivers have run the course in competition. Our job is to find some winning bets with the BetCrushers Charlotte Roval NASCAR race preview.
Last week’s Saturday night showdown at Richmond was dominated by the Joe Gibbs Toyotas, who took advantage of plenty of long-run racing. This didn’t do us much good in the betting matchups as Hamlin finished one spot behind Kyle, and Harvick was several more behind Hamlin. Austin Dillon showed us that he really is a knucklehead, while Clint Bowyer channeled his emotions well. We also learned that if you handicap a guy to be the strongest driver in the field not named Kyle Busch, you better find a way to make money off of him.
Charlotte Roval Track Overview
The Roval is a 2.28-mile course with 17 turns that takes a big chunk of the Charlotte Motor Speedway track and adds a big twist. The course of the traditional 1.5-mile oval is diverted into another 3/4-mile of twists and turns in the infield. Drivers will run 109 laps, making this a 400-kilometer race.
NASCAR created this course and added it to the postseason because it lacked a road course in the final ten races. Many hailed last year’s inaugural running as a success. While it was a fairly clean race, you saw road course guys and oval guys losing and gaining position as they moved between “phases” of the track. Officials made some adjustments to the young track to enable more passing this year, a change that should dial up the intensity.
The tactical racing of 2018’s Bank of America 400 was topped off with one hell of a finish. Mix up some postseason pressure with the unfamiliarity of the Roval and you’ve got a recipe for insanity. Lap 109 of the Roval debut was nothing short of epic as Jimmie Johnson sabotaged leader Martin Truex, Jr. in the race’s final chicane:
Weekend Schedule
The Roval is a unique track, and the weekend schedule is as well. Practice is held Friday morning ahead of afternoon qualifying. With that out of the way, teams get more track time during Saturday’s dual practices. By the time the early Sunday NFL games hit halftime, the green flag will drop on the Bank of America 400. BetCrushers.com will have its final race handicapping locked and loaded Sunday morning once the full betting menus are back up.
The Updated Playoff Picture
Four drivers will be bounced from the NACAR playoffs after the checkered flag flies on Sunday. Anything short of a win will eliminate Erik Jones after his DQ at Richmond. Same goes for Kurt Busch, whose poor showing at Vegas put him in a tough spot. Bowyer, Bowman, Byron, and Almirola will be fighting for the final two playoff positions in the next round.
Our NASCAR Playoffs preview article anticipated Erik Jones moving onto the next round, though not surviving the cut to eight. We did not expect the guys currently occupying positions 9-15 to make the final eight, and still hold to that assessment. It will likely require a win at Dover, Talladega, or Kansas for any of those guys to squeeze into the top half.
The usual suspects of Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch are locked into the next round. It will take something weird to knock them out of the top eight and the battle royale in the final four races. Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, and Elliott are well situated to make the second cut as well, essentially leaving one slot up for grabs. A guy like Ryan Blaney could inch himself closer with another strong showing at the Roval this weekend.
Job #1: Finding Winners
NASCAR handicappers have their job cut out for them any given week, let alone at a wild card track like the Roval. The course uses nearly the entire 1.5-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway oval. There’s a 3/4-mile road course and a couple chicanes spliced onto it, so our first step is to find drivers who are proficient on road courses. I give the teams with better overall performances at Watkins Glen a higher weighting in that category. In my opinion, that course shares more in common with the Roval than Sonoma does.
The next step is to see who races well on the Charlotte oval. This is a minor consideration, but we need to keep splitting hairs to generate a short list of viable drivers. Performance at the 2018 Roval race is another factor, but one that is very minor since a single race cannot be used to draw broad conclusions.
The Shortlist
After plugging these variables into the BetCrushers magic racing calculator, we get a shortlist of drivers who have a strong possibility of finishing in the Top 10 or better on Sunday. Most of these names shouldn’t surprise you:
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Chase Elliott
Martin Truex, Jr.
Truex sitting at the top of the list doesn’t surprise anyone. He opened as the Bank of America 400 favorite for a reason. MTJ is gunning for back-to-back-to-back wins (that’s a Tom Emanski, folks) and wants what was almost his last year: a checkered flag from the Roval.
He’s our highest-rated road course driver and checks the boxes of being good at The Glen and on the Charlotte oval. Again, it’s going to come down to price to back him this week as he also is in prime form. All of his early matchup prices are big favorites, so we’ll be looking at a Top 3 bet on Truex if the price is right.
Kyle Busch
We played with fire last week by going against Busch. Kyle finished in 2nd place at Richmond, one spot ahead of our matchup play with Denny Hamlin. We questioned Kyle’s focus after some reckless driving and a Twitter tirade. Is he back? Despite a 32nd place finish last year, we won’t be going against him this week. There’s not much on his matchup card that we like right now. It will be a wait-and-see for the Top 3 and Top 10 markets to open this weekend.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin checks the same boxes as Truex and Busch for his strengths in this situation. He turned in a modest 12th place finish on the Roval last year, but spiked a 5th at Sonoma and 3rd at Watkins Glen this season. Denny may have started a good postseason run at Richmond this past Saturday. If he can regain the flow he had for a couple months this summer, don’t be surprised to see him take home the NASCAR Championship at Homestead. As for this weekend, we’re treating him like Kyle Busch.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick has been on a great Top-10 run, scoring eight such finishes in his last nine races. Three of those were outright wins. He squeezed his way into the Top 10 at the Roval last year and did the same in the Sonoma and Watkins Glen races this year. We have him rated highly at the Charlotte oval and could be a Top 10 contender. At +1540 to win, the Top 10 markets should have him at plus-money this weekend.
Chase Elliott
Chase is in the slug of shortest-odds drivers on the early list for a reason: he is damn good on road courses. Despite an early exit from Sonoma due to a mechanical failure, Elliott has two Top 10 finishes there in his three other races. Oh, and he’s the defending back-to-back champion at Watkins Glen. And on top of that, Chase has 2nd and 4th place finishes at the Charlotte oval over the last three years.
The young Elliott needs a strong finish at the Roval to keep his Championship hopes alive. Motivation cannot be the guiding factor in handicapping this race, but that combined with the confidence he should have from his Watkins Glen performances is something. Let’s be real: all five of these contenders should have ample motivation and confidence. Our first and only early play on the Bank of America 400 is a half-unit wager on Chase Elliott to win at +880.
