It’s road course racing time again as the NASCAR Cup circuit makes its annual stop at Watkins Glen, NY. The stock car boys have been racing here continuously since 1986 and on the track’s current configuration since 1992. Road courses can be polarizing with NASCAR fans, but the BetCrushers team is a fan of any track where there’s an opportunity to profit.
Watkins Glen International Track Overview
The Glen combines a pure road course like Sonoma with a typical NASCAR speedway. As opposed to Sonoma’s 12 turns on a 2.52-mile course, Watkins Glen has 7 turns over 2.45 miles. Perhaps the most glaring difference is the inclusion of several straightaways that allow drivers to put the pedal to the metal then slam hard into the turns. (By the way, the cars run clockwise on this track.)
The approach to Turn 1 is probably the best example of this, where drivers accelerate downhill and can make their moves before hitting the hard curve. The Carousel is a steep, banking turn into a huge straightaway where more position-jockeying can take place. There’s plenty of twists in between. There will be plenty of glowing brakes and crumpled quarter panels in Sunday’s 90 laps to victory.
The Big Boys at Watkins Glen
Go figure; Kyle Busch is good at Watkins Glen. Considering the guy is just flat-out good at racing, this isn’t brilliant insight. Other than a 40th place finish in 2014 and a 33rd in his first running in 2005, Kyle Busch has been in the Top 10 every single Cup race he’s run here. In fact, he started each race in a Top 10 position except for 2005 and 2014. As of Wednesday morning, he sits as the +275 favorite to win.
Martin Truex, Jr. has enjoyed recent success here, posting a 2nd place finish last year after grabbing the checkered flag in 2017. Despite a disappointing 13th in 2018, Denny Hamlin had a pair of T5s in the two races prior including a win in 2016. These guys are hanging around +350 and +900, respectively.
A veteran like Brad Keselowski has had success in the past but struggled somewhat in the last couple races. Kevin Harvick has only one T10 in his last three appearances and Ryan Newman hasn’t cracked that mark since 2006. Clint Bowyer waffles back-and-forth on a yearly basis, while Jimmy Johnson has dropped off the map at The Glen. He’s finished outside the Top 25 in four of the last five years and now there’s a new Crew Chief for the #48 team.
What About the Young Guns?
Apparently Daniel Suarez loves racing at Watkins Glen. He’s notched 3rd and 4th place finishes in his only two Cup races here. Considering that his starting position last year was 21st, the 4th place finish is quite strong. He has not been as strong in three races at Sonoma, so this combination of turns and straightaways could be right in his wheelhouse. Chase Elliot is the defending champion, but comes into Sunday’s race pretty damn ice cold.
Ryan Blaney has danced around the Top 10 but Erik Jones may have the best chance to shake things up at The Glen this year. Like Suarez, he has only two Cup races here but has logged strong 10th and 5th place finishes. Jones is really capitalizing on his access to Joe Gibbs Racing resources and could be a threat in the playoffs. He’s involved in a pick’em matchup with Daniel Suarez that we will be monitoring during practice and qualifying. There’s a strong likelihood this matchup will be a focus of BetCrushers.com‘s pre-race analysis.
Pre-Qual Matchups
Edge Out Chase Elliott
As much as we want to see Chase succeed, he is in a major funk. He’s been knocked well out of contention in four of his last six races this year, including the last two. Elliott is getting deserved respect at +1000 to win since he is the defending champion. A pair of 13th place finishes preceded his win at Watkins Glen.
Can a strong run on this track turn his season around or is it too late? He sits in the 8th spot on the Cup Series standings and is locked in for the playoffs with his win at Talladega. The major issue with the #9 Chevrolet team is their ongoing struggle to stay competitive since his string of T5s ended at Michigan. Here are some matchups my eyes are on and will likely be playing, though I do not like to put too many plays on (or against) the same driver in a race:
Denny Hamlin (-115) vs. Chase (-115)
This is probably one of the most intriguing matchups on the board this week. Denny Hamlin found recent success at The Glen that includes a win in 2016 and a pair of good finishes since then. This came after a stretch from 2010-2015 where he was downright awful on the road course. Oddly enough, Denny started his career here on fire with four straight T10 finishes.
If you stack these guys up at Watkins Glen in the last three runnings, Hamlin’s 13th place finish in 2018 is the lone letdown against Chase. Both drivers should have confidence in their skillsets at this track. However, I’m not sure how much confidence the #9 team has in general right now.
Kevin Harvick (+105) vs. Chase (-135)
Harvick is a guy that has been the topic of our discussions lately. He did not show well in Kentucky after getting caught up in the mess at Daytona the week prior, but rebounded with a win at New Hampshire and strong 6th at Pocono. The #4 team appears to be back on track after that two-race lull. Watkins Glen is not one of Kevin’s best tracks, so you have to handicap this matchup by weighing current form vs. history at this venue. In my opinion, this is a great way to capitalize on Chase’s recent downward trend.
Work in Kurt Busch
Kurt is often left behind in conversation about potential race winners, though he is mentioned as a dark horse from time to time. He’s having a decent season and sits in 7th on the playoff standings. Busch’s win at Kentucky a few weeks back locked him in for the postseason but a 27th place finish last week at Pocono may be part of the reason why he is +1600 to win Sunday’s race.
Busch has a strong record at The Glen and is a good guy to back in matchups this week. He’s proven that he can get into the Top 10 from any starting position in years past. Since joining the Stewart-Haas team in 2014, Kurt has finished no worse than 11th here. A prime example came last year when he finished 9th after starting in the 36th position. The key is to be selective with the three key matchups to involve him in, playing no more than two of these to limit exposure to a wreck or other major setback for the #1 team on Sunday.
Kurt (+105) vs. Ryan Blaney (-135)
Ryan Blaney is a young star in the making that we’ve been playing occasionally this season. He’s finished ahead of Busch more often than not, but not by significant margins when you smooth out the differentials over all the races. Blaney has raced at Watkins Glen only three times at the Cup level, notching respectable finishes of 19th and 8th with a 12th place finish last year. Blaney is improving significantly with each season under his belt, but Busch has edged him out each time at The Glen and does not look like he is ready to fall behind the young gun. I am playing this matchup prior to qualifying before I jump on the next two.
Kurt (+105) vs. Brad Keselowski (-135)
Brad has enjoyed a little more success on the Cup circuit over the past few months despite Kurt’s win at Kentucky. I think this is shading the line significantly considering Busch’s reliability at Watkins Glen. Keselowski has had success on the road course through the years, making him a serious threat. However, he was less of a factor in the past two runnings while Busch T10’ed them.
Kurt (+105) vs. Joey Logano (-135)
Logano’s been hanging around the lead pack most of the year and was certainly a factor at Pocono last week. He’s another one that has experienced success more often than not on this road course, yet has less consistency than Kurt. My major concern with this matchup is going against Logano for a second straight week and expecting to win them both. He is having a Championship-caliber season and it may be asking a lot to get another H2H win against the #22 car.
