I have not found an overwhelming number of opportunities on the college hoops slates in the smaller conferences that I follow lately. Whether it is my tendency to be more conservative during a down season or just the way the lines are shaping up, I’m not one to force the issue. However, Friday’s short card served up an interesting one to feature on the Road Dog Report for 2/7/2020.
Wednesday’s “last stand” marked my second and final play on a sinking Bradley Braves squad. My thought prior to Saturday’s bet on the Braves was that this was a team that had learned to thrive without one of their best players. However, they faded down the stretch at Loyola and couldn’t cover the spread with very poor shooting. Their test against Drake resulted in an even worse showing to start the game, as 7’1″ Liam Robbins put up 29 points and Bradley shot only 36.5% from the field.
So be it, but I’ve gotta leave that team alone as they work through a significant low point. Bradley’s goose appears to be cooked without Elijah Childs. How about Thursday’s leans of Elon and Towson? They split, so my decision to lay off wasn’t the worst one I’ve ever made. How about today’s decision?
(859) Canisius @ Rider -7.5
The 9-13 Canisius Golden Griffins make their way into New Jersey for round two with the 12-9 Rider Broncs. The Griffs outlasted the Broncs in Buffalo on January 19th, playing to a 95-86 win. Malik Johnson logged a double-double with 11 assists and the team shot a surprising 60.7% from the field. Unfortunately, this was the third and last game of their winning streak before dropping the following three. They squeezed out a 66-65 win against Marist on Sunday, but are struggling with a 4-7 conference record.
Staying Afloat in the MAAC
Rider, on the other hand, is 6-5 in eleven conference games and sit only one game behind MAAC leaders Monmouth and St. Peter’s. Reigning MAAC Player of the Week, Dimencio Vaughn has come on strong for the Broncs. However, the local media recognizes that “he needs some help”. Frederick Scott and Tyere Marshall have been “hot and cold all season”, while Stevie Jordan has been mired in a month-long 28.1% shooting slump. Despite these troubles, the Broncs have won three of their last four and are contenders for the MAAC crown. Hell, ten of the eleven teams in the league are separated by only three games. The regular-season title is up for grabs.
We featured the Golden Griffins in their January 10th Road Dog spot at Monmouth. Despite a valiant effort from Malik Johnson, the team did not shoot well and turned the ball over 22 times. That was an uncharacteristically-high number of turnovers for a team that has committed no more than nine in their last two games and no more than twelve in their last five. Canisius has stayed out of foul trouble in the last two games while Rider has committed eleven more fouls than their opponents in their last two games. The Griffs move the ball well with dynamic senior guard Malik Johnson, while Majesty Brandon and Scott Hitchon are regular contributors on the offensive end. The Canisius offense isn’t thrilling, but their shot selection is good and they do well in the high-percentage shooting game.
Round Two: Revenge or Sweep?
Canisius sits as a significant underdog tonight, and my ratings do not disagree. Rider should be about 2.5 points better on a neutral, but how do they match up on the court? Looking at the January 19th game, Rider’s 6’9″ center Tyere Marshall put up an astounding 31 points but their backcourt could not outshoot the Griffs. Canisius’ 6’10” Jacco Fritz has sprinkled in a few monster games this season and really needs to put forth his best effort tonight to keep them in this one. When you boil these teams down, it’s all about the guard play.
We can count on Canisius’ Malik Johnson being on point tonight, but who else can they count on to keep the game close? Jordan Henderson has rounded into prime form, averaging 14.2 PPG in the last five games. Majesty Brandon was in the starting five for the last two games and logged a full 40 minutes in both. Will he have the energy to follow up with another 15+ point outing? They definitely need him for a shot at breaking their two-game road losing streak, especially given that the Broncs won their last two at home and are 4-1 there in five MAAC games.
On the Money
Rider is 9-12 ATS and 2-3 ATS at home during MAAC play. They’ve either laid -6 or -6.5 in their last three home games, covering only one of them. Their 68-52 win against Fairfield covered easily, though close wins against St. Peter’s and Iona did not get their backers to the pay window. Canisius, on the other hand, has not covered the number in four straight games (0-3-1). Tonight the Griffs are catching the most points they have seen in five weeks. They are 2-2-1 ATS on the road in league games and 11-9-2 ATS on the season. Is this another “buy low” spot for Canisius?
I must ask myself, is 7.5 points enough? My ratings say yes. Last month’s 9-point victory over Rider in Buffalo points to yes. Furthermore, take a look at their home/away point spread differentials against their pairs of games against Siena an Fairfield this season. Canisius was +7 at Siena and +1 when they played at home. Similarly, they laid -4 to Fairfield at home and caught +1.5 on the road. The books applied a similar differential in this one, moving six points from +2 at Canisius to an opener of +8 for the rematch at Rider. Regardless of current form, I see this as a blind translation of the point spread similar to the Siena and Fairfield 6- and 5.5-point home/road differentials. The thing to note is that Canisius beat Rider by nine as a 2-point dog last month, so was +2 the right number back then? I think tonight’s number is a couple points too high, so give me Canisius +7.5 with the expectation for a close game down the stretch.
